The Oil Depletion The Oil Depletion ProtocolProtocol

A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Terrorism, and Economic

CollapseCollapse

ASPO 5, Pisa ItalyASPO 5, Pisa Italy

July 18, 2006July 18, 2006

Richard HeinbergRichard Heinberg

Without a ProtocolWithout a Protocol

Extreme price volatility will make Extreme price volatility will make planning and investment difficultplanning and investment difficult

Conflict over remaining oil reserves Conflict over remaining oil reserves will hinder their development and will hinder their development and divert resources from the energy divert resources from the energy transitiontransition

Efforts to produce oil at maximum Efforts to produce oil at maximum rates will damage reservoirsrates will damage reservoirs

The General DirectionThe General Direction

We need a cooperative agreement to We need a cooperative agreement to gradually reduce oil consumption in gradually reduce oil consumption in order to discourage competition, order to discourage competition, stabilize prices, and protect the stabilize prices, and protect the resource baseresource base

The rate of reduction should be The rate of reduction should be pegged to some objective datum so pegged to some objective datum so as to avert lengthy negotiationsas to avert lengthy negotiations

History of the History of the Oil Depletion ProtocolOil Depletion Protocol

Proposed by Colin Campbell at first Proposed by Colin Campbell at first ASPO conference in 2002 ASPO conference in 2002

Has been known as “Uppsala Has been known as “Uppsala Protocol” and “Rimini Protocol”Protocol” and “Rimini Protocol”

Initiation of the Oil Depletion Protocol Initiation of the Oil Depletion Protocol Project in July, 2006 by Post Carbon Project in July, 2006 by Post Carbon InstituteInstitute

The Oil Depletion The Oil Depletion ProtocolProtocol

• The world and every nation shall The world and every nation shall aim to reduce oil consumption by aim to reduce oil consumption by at least the world depletion rate.at least the world depletion rate.

• No country shall produce oil at No country shall produce oil at above its present depletion rate.above its present depletion rate.

• No country shall import at above No country shall import at above the world depletion rate.the world depletion rate.

• The depletion rate is defined as The depletion rate is defined as annual production as a percentage annual production as a percentage of what is left (reserves plus yet-to-of what is left (reserves plus yet-to-find). find).

• The preceding provisions refer to The preceding provisions refer to regular conventionalregular conventional oil—which oil—which category excludes heavy oils with category excludes heavy oils with cut-off of 17.5 API, deepwater oil cut-off of 17.5 API, deepwater oil with a cut-off of 500 meters, polar with a cut-off of 500 meters, polar oil, gas liquids from gas fields, tar oil, gas liquids from gas fields, tar sands, oil shale, oil from coal, sands, oil shale, oil from coal, biofuels such as ethanol, etc.biofuels such as ethanol, etc.

Dealing with Dealing with

Diminishing Oil: Diminishing Oil:

Options and Options and StrategiesStrategies

Suggestions OnlySuggestions Only

Energy: Develop renewable sources Energy: Develop renewable sources including wind, solar, and biomassincluding wind, solar, and biomass

Agriculture: transition from oil-based Agriculture: transition from oil-based industrial model to more labor-industrial model to more labor-intensive, localized, organic modelintensive, localized, organic model

PermaculturePermaculture

"Consciously designed "Consciously designed landscapes that mimic landscapes that mimic the patterns and the patterns and relationships found in relationships found in nature, while yielding nature, while yielding an abundance of food, an abundance of food, fiber, and energy for fiber, and energy for provision of local provision of local needs"needs"

Holmgren (2002)Holmgren (2002)

Transportation: Transportation: Rail and light Rail and light rail—the best rail—the best long-term long-term options for options for motorized motorized transport of transport of freight and freight and peoplepeople

Short-term strategiesShort-term strategies Community Car Community Car

(communitysolution.org)(communitysolution.org) Car co-ops, ride-share, and Car co-ops, ride-share, and

carpoolingcarpooling Community-supported Community-supported

hitchhikinghitchhiking

Domestic Implementation: Domestic Implementation: RationingRationing

Some form of rationing is inevitableSome form of rationing is inevitable—by price or by quota—by price or by quota

Quota rationing works well in case of Quota rationing works well in case of shortages of essential goodsshortages of essential goods

David Fleming’s proposal for David Fleming’s proposal for Tradable Energy Quotas (teqs.org)Tradable Energy Quotas (teqs.org)

Questions and Questions and

ObjectionsObjections

How are the challenges of Peak Oil How are the challenges of Peak Oil and Climate Change different?and Climate Change different?

How are the challenges of Peak Oil How are the challenges of Peak Oil and Climate Change different?and Climate Change different?

How are they similar?How are they similar?

How are the challenges of Peak Oil How are the challenges of Peak Oil and Climate Change different?and Climate Change different?

How are they similar?How are they similar? How is the Oil Depletion Protocol How is the Oil Depletion Protocol

different from emissions-based different from emissions-based protocols (Kyoto)? protocols (Kyoto)?

What incentive would countries have What incentive would countries have to participate? In the carbon to participate? In the carbon reduction context, much attention reduction context, much attention has been paid to finding ways to has been paid to finding ways to compensate countries to provide compensate countries to provide them an incentive not to develop in a them an incentive not to develop in a carbon-intensive manner. What carbon-intensive manner. What would be the incentive in this case?would be the incentive in this case?

Does the Oil Depletion Protocol Does the Oil Depletion Protocol eliminate the need for emissions-eliminate the need for emissions-based agreements?based agreements?

How could cheating be prevented?How could cheating be prevented?

How could cheating be prevented?How could cheating be prevented? How would we know the real How would we know the real

reserves, and the real import and reserves, and the real import and production figures, of signatory production figures, of signatory nations?nations?

What if post-peak declines are What if post-peak declines are greater than 2.6% per year?greater than 2.6% per year?

What if post-peak declines are What if post-peak declines are greater than 2.6% per year?greater than 2.6% per year?

What if only some countries adopt What if only some countries adopt the Protocol?the Protocol?

What if post-peak declines are What if post-peak declines are greater than 2.6% per year?greater than 2.6% per year?

What if only some countries adopt What if only some countries adopt the Protocol?the Protocol?

If the peak is occurring now, is it too If the peak is occurring now, is it too late to enact the Protocol?late to enact the Protocol?

Wouldn’t the Protocol violate the Wouldn’t the Protocol violate the rules of the World Trade rules of the World Trade Organization?Organization?

Wouldn’t the Protocol violate the Wouldn’t the Protocol violate the rules of the World Trade rules of the World Trade Organization?Organization?

Wouldn’t interference with market Wouldn’t interference with market forces be harmful to the process of forces be harmful to the process of economic adaptation?economic adaptation?

Wouldn’t the Protocol violate the Wouldn’t the Protocol violate the rules of the World Trade rules of the World Trade Organization?Organization?

Wouldn’t interference with market Wouldn’t interference with market forces be harmful to the process of forces be harmful to the process of economic adaptation?economic adaptation?

How would signatory countries How would signatory countries actually go about reducing imports?actually go about reducing imports?

If some nations use less oil, won’t If some nations use less oil, won’t others simply use more?others simply use more?

If some nations use less oil, won’t If some nations use less oil, won’t others simply use more?others simply use more?

If the Oil Depletion Protocol applies If the Oil Depletion Protocol applies equally to all nations, will this be equally to all nations, will this be unfair to less-industrialized nations unfair to less-industrialized nations that have not benefited as much that have not benefited as much historically from oil consumption?historically from oil consumption?

How Can the How Can the

Protocol Be Protocol Be Adopted?Adopted?

Countries in full or partial Countries in full or partial de factode facto compliance with compliance with

the Protocolthe Protocol SwedenSweden IcelandIceland CubaCuba Kuwait (?)Kuwait (?) Declining producers Declining producers

(Indonesia, etc.)(Indonesia, etc.) Poor nations unable to Poor nations unable to

afford oil at $70+afford oil at $70+

Municipal EffortsMunicipal Efforts• San Francisco, CA San Francisco, CA • Sebastopol, CASebastopol, CA• Denver, CODenver, CO• Burnaby, BCBurnaby, BC• Plymouth, NHPlymouth, NH• Portland, ORPortland, OR• Tompkins County, NYTompkins County, NY• Hamilton, ONHamilton, ON• Willits, CAWillits, CA• Bloomington, INBloomington, IN

San Francisco Peak Oil San Francisco Peak Oil ResolutionResolution

1.1. “…“…acknowledges the unprecedented acknowledges the unprecedented challenges of Peak Oil”challenges of Peak Oil”

2.2. Supports adoption of global Oil Depletion Supports adoption of global Oil Depletion ProtocolProtocol

• “…“…to provide a framework of predictability”to provide a framework of predictability”

3.3. Undertaking a city-wide assessment Undertaking a city-wide assessment • Inventory of city activities and associated Inventory of city activities and associated

resource requirements, in regards to resource requirements, in regards to decreased energy availability and increased decreased energy availability and increased pricesprices

4.4. “…“…urges the Mayor to provide funding urges the Mayor to provide funding and direction…for development of a and direction…for development of a response plan.” response plan.”

Personal Implementation of the Personal Implementation of the Oil Depletion ProtocolOil Depletion Protocol

Assess current oil consumption: gasoline, food, Assess current oil consumption: gasoline, food, plasticsplastics

Plan to reduce the total by 3% per year (change Plan to reduce the total by 3% per year (change your transportation habits your transportation habits nownow!)!)

For most people in industrial countries, food For most people in industrial countries, food accounts for over 30% of petroleum consumption; accounts for over 30% of petroleum consumption; to reduce this, eat locally, buy organic, and to reduce this, eat locally, buy organic, and garden!garden!

Publicize personal and group effortsPublicize personal and group efforts

The Oil Depletion The Oil Depletion Protocol ProjectProtocol Project

Post Carbon InstitutePost Carbon Institute Web site: oildepletionprotocol.orgWeb site: oildepletionprotocol.org Staff: Karen WebsterStaff: Karen Webster Support from Wallace Global Fund Support from Wallace Global Fund

and othersand others DVDDVD Lobbying effort based on grassroots Lobbying effort based on grassroots

supportsupport

oildepletionprotocol.orgoildepletionprotocol.org