The Ocean Data Value Chain

CIPS Benefits:The Basic Storyline

CAUSE

•More Timely•More Accurate•More Credible•More Understandable

Flood PredictionsFlood Predictions

EFFECT

•More Effective•More Timely•More Reliable•More Defensible

Emergency Management Emergency Management DecisionsDecisions

Leading to Reductions in:Leading to Reductions in:

•Injuries and Deaths•Property Damage•Business Losses•Household Economic costs•Health Consequences•Evacuation Costs•Indirect Economic Impacts•Recovery Time/Costs

BENEFICIAL RESULTS

EM Viewpoint About CIPS

• Fine Scale Resolution: would help avoid errors in both directions that will enable EMs to more accurately deploy manpower and resources before, during and after event

• Timing: again, EMs indicated that this would help them deploy resources more accurately both when inundation arrives and when it recedes, which will be important for allowing residents back into homes, or businesses to reopen.

• Delivery System: visualizations important to EMs for communicating risk to public officials, media, citizens, business owners

• Local Knowledge: CIPS would be a valuable complement to existing tools, not a replacement for anything that's being used now--in effect a complement to "local knowledge" at a scale that's not there now.

• Where Should CIPS Reside? For credibility and accountability reasons, almost all EMs interviewed prefer that CIPS reside at NWS WFOs.

CIPS And Alexandria Businesses

Alexandria Business Viewpoint About CIPS

More Precision Could Avoid Significant Damage/Lost Revenue

For “under-forecast” Isabel, several businesses reported 100K+losses due to business interruptions and damaged merchandise/equipment—they prepared, but not for level of inundation that occurred.

Emergency Manager Should Deliver the News

Keen interest in time-series visualizations as valuable preparation tool. They should come from EM— “at eighth-grade level, or member of Congress—we’re not experts.”

Where You Stand Depends on Where You Sit

Difference in location of just a half block makes a big difference re: perceived threat—(CIPS one city-block resolution).

Darned Media!

Precise visualizations could counteract negative business impacts from “oversensationalized” media coverage--In some cases, $10K and upward difference between rainy-day revenues and inundation-forecast-day revenues, regardless of weather outcome.