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Mike Ek, for Hendrik L. TolmanActing Director, Environmental Modeling Center

NOAA/NWSGeoff DiMego , John Derber , Yuejian Zhu , Vijay Tallapragada,

Shrinivas Moorthi , Mark Iredell , Stan Benjamin

NCEP

The NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Suite:

Major Upgrade Plans for FY14-15 Prepared by the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center

1. Global Observing System

2. Computers (WCOSS, AWIPS2)

3. Data Assimilation, Modeling, Ensembles and Post Processing

Three Major Components of the Numerical

Prediction Enterprise….

Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is

based on numerical prediction

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NOAA Operational Data Assimilation and Modeling

NOAA Science Serving Society….

NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission

– Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAARequired for agency to meet service-based metrics

– National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics

(* Government Performance & Results Act)Hurricane Track and Intensity Winter Storm WarningPrecipitation Threat Flood WarningMarine Wind Speed and Wave Height

– Operational numerical guidance:Foundational tools used by government, public and private

industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive U.S. economic growth

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Lead Time and

Accuracy!

Regional Hurricane

GFDLWRF-NMM

WRF(ARW, NMM)NMMB

Climate ForecastSystem (CFS)

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s Operational Numerical Guidance Suite (Jan 2014)

GFS, MOM4,NOAH, Sea Ice

North American Ensemble Forecast System

GEFS, Canadian Global Model

Dispersion HYSPLIT

Air QualityCMAQ

Regional NAMNMMBNOAH

3D-V

ARD

A

Regional Bays•Great Lakes (POM)

•N Gulf of Mexico (FVCOM)•Columbia R. (SELFE)•Chesapeake (ROMS)

•Tampa (ROMS)•Delaware (ROMS)

SpaceWeather

ENLIL4

North American Land Surface Data Assimilation

SystemNOAH Land Surface Model

Global SpectralNOAH3D

-En-

Var

DA

Global Forecast System (GFS)

3D-V

ARD

A

3D-V

ARD

A

WRF ARW

Rapid Refresh

3D-V

ARD

A

WavesWaveWatch III

Ocean HYCOM

Ecosystem EwE

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)21 GFS Members

ESTOFSADCIRC

SURGESLOSH

P-SURGESLOSH

WRF ARW3D-V

AR

DA

High Resolution RRNEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC)

GFS & GOCART

WRF(ARW, NMM) & NMMB

High Res Windows

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Operational: Systematic assessment and testing with well defined annual development cyclesHolistic end-to-end system testedEstablished metrics and baselinesCustomers included in process—final approvalLeads to consistent incremental improvement

Research:Development based on process oriented approach driven by funding program prioritiesOften event driven (case studies)Baseline: a control run that is not a baselineStudies emphasize limited changes in the systemNo independent customer feedback--metrics

Model Development:Incremental is not a “Bad” Word…

• Operational systematic end-to-end testing

• Increasing the gap between HWRF and AHW for skill and computational efficiency

• Annual incremental improvements produce revolutionary results

2010-2012 Atlantic Basin Intensity Error (Kts)

Forecast Hour

Implementation updateSince Feb FOS meeting

– EMC is executing the implementation plan presented in Feb. FOS meeting.Much pressure on implementation schedule due to stress on

computation resources.Sandy Supplemental gave HR and additional projects, but additional

compute resources have not yet materialized.Availability of development compute (the “backup” WCOSS machine) has

been less than expected.Some slippage in the schedule.

– Uncertainty in phase II WCOSS upgrades have delayed

our planning of FY2015 implementations.IBM now executing on installing phase II.Compute plus up less than originally planned for (Sandy

Supplemental funding not included).EMC adjusting details of implementation plans.

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Major System Upgrades (update)Q1-FY14 to Q1-FY15

• List does not include NOS or MDL systems

FY15

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

North American Ensemble Forecast System NAEFS X

Global Data Assimilation/Forecast System GDAS/GFS X

Global Forecast Ensemble System GEFS XNCEP Global Aerosol NGACNorth American Model NAM X X

High-Resolution Window HiRESW X

Short Range Ensemble System SREF X XRapid Refresh RAP X XHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh HRRR X

Real Time Mesoscale Analysis RTMA X X

HYSPLIT HYSPLIT X

Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast HWRF X

GFDL Hurricane GFDL X

North American Land Data Assimilation NLDAS X

System

FY14

Real Time Ocean Forecast System X X(2)Wave Watch III X

Acronym

RTOFSWaves

XX X

✔

✔

✔

✔✔

✔✔ ✔

✖✔

✔

✔✔

X

X X

Implementations in FY2015Carry-over from FY2014

–GFSScheduled FY14 implementation delayed to FY15 Q1 due to:

Compute resource issues.Emerging requirements

More retrospective data provided than ever before.Need to adjust downstream applications, delaying GFS implementation

to coincide with downstream applications (e.g., MOS).

A similar delay will occur for 4D-VAR implementation.Cannot be done before 2015 Hurricane Season, hence now tentatively

scheduled for Dec. 2015.

Implementations in FY2015Carry-over from FY2014

–GEFSEmerging requirements include need for re-forecast to

assure continued quality of downstream products(MDL, CPC, OHD, …).

Long term solution: re-forecast as integral part of implementation (real-time or retrospective).

Short term solution: limited retrospective re-forecast and tentively keeping previous version of GEFS running after new implementation (details still TBD).

Present GEFS implementation was scheduled to be implemented on WCOSS phase I with very tight fit into available resources. With Phase II now materializing, GEFS implementation will now be first on phase II to avoid risks associated with overcommitted computer resources.

FY15 and beyond

– All major systems will be upgraded in FY15, many of the details still TBD as a clear picture on compute resources only now starts to materialize

– Some big-picture developments:EMC is developing a consistent development plan for all

global models.Clear roles for GFS, GEFS and CFS.Commitment to develop CFS-v3 with community.Systematic treatment of reanalysis and reforecast, this will require a new

level of collaboration with downstream users in the full implementation process.

Consider implementation plan more similar to HWRF, with upgrades on a more fixed schedule with clear decision points for R2O selection, and downstream impacts and impact mitigation.

Global modeling as testbed, but all models to be considered in this way.

FY15 and beyond