the new paradigm – the impact of supply challenges in the brazilian iron ore industry
DESCRIPTION
Jayme Nicolato, CEO, from Ferrous delivered this presentation at the 2012 Americas Iron Ore conference. Americas Iron Ore is one of the most respected annual gatherings for North and South American iron ore markets and its agenda features: iron ore industry and market developments; new project developments and expansions in North and South America; overview of steel demand; iron ore spot market price; infrastructure and transport challenges and investment opportunities. For more information on the annual event, please visit www.immevents.comTRANSCRIPT
O NOVO PARADIGMAO Impacto dos desafios de fornecimento na indústria brasileira de
Minério de Ferro
Jayme Nicolato, CEO Ferrous
Capítulo 1
2
This presentation and its contents are confidential and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or
published, in whole or in part, for any purpose without the written consent of Ferrous.
This presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for
any securities, or a proposal to make a takeover bid in any jurisdiction. Neither this document nor the fact of its distribution nor the making of the
presentation constitutes a recommendation regarding any securities. This presentation is being provided to you for information purposes only. You are
responsible for your own investment decisions and for properly analysing and verifying any information or projections you intend to rely upon. You
should be capable of evaluating the merits and risks of any investments you intend to make and no reliance may be placed on this presentation in
connection with any decisions on your part. Any decision to purchase any securities in any offering should be made solely on the basis of the information
contained in the relevant prospectus and specific documentation for that purpose.
Certain statements, beliefs and opinions contained in this presentation, particularly those regarding the possible or assumed future financial or other
performance of Ferrous or any members of its group (the “Group”), anticipated iron ore demand and consumption, global economic outlook, commodity
price forecasts, industry growth or other trend projections are or may be forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements
involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future and may be beyond
Ferrous’s ability to control or predict. Important factors that could cause the Group’s actual results of operations, financial condition and development of
the industry in which it operates to differ from the impression created by any forward-looking statement and include, but are not limited to, general
economic and business conditions, commodity price volatility, industry trends, competition, changes in government and other regulation, including in
relation to the environment, health and safety and taxation, labour relations and work stoppages, changes in political and economic stability and
currency fluctuations.
Other than in accordance with regulatory requirements, Ferrous is not under any obligation and Ferrous expressly disclaims any intention or obligation to
update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on behalf of Ferrous or any other person or their members, directors, officers, advisers,
agents or employees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information, opinions, projections or assumptions contained in this presentation and, to
the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) is accepted by Ferrous nor any other person for any loss howsoever
arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of such information, projections, assumptions or opinions or otherwise arising in connection therewith.
Disclaimer
Capítulo 1
3
Iron ore market dynamics Through 2020, China will need an additional 400 Mt in iron ore
from the Seaborne Market
Seaborne iron ore demand is expected to grow significantly over the next 10 years, mainly driven by demand growth from
China.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2011 2021
111148
208275
326383
444628 619
687750
818898
968
1.045
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
CHINA CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION
(Mmt)
SOURCE: CRU AND MARKET INFORMATION
+545Mt
+ 260 Mt
+9%
Y-o-Y
CHINA IRON ORE ANNUAL IMPORTS
(Mmt)
CHINA IRON ORE MONTHLY IMPORTS
(Mmt)
45
50
55
60
65
70
JAN FEV MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
2011 2012
SOURCE: TEX REPORT AND BLOOMBERG
SOURCE: TEX REPORT, CRU AND MACQUARIE
Capítulo 1
4
Iron ore market dynamics China overcapitcity in aluminium and steel keep the
international prices low
Since 2000 production of almost every metal has at least doubled, China’s strategy of keeping the production higher than
the demand inorder to keep lower prices and cheaper urbanization plan.
Source: CRU, SBB and Macquarie
100
200
300
400
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
100
200
300
400
500
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
100
200
300
400
500
600
0100200300400500600
Consumption Production Price
COPPER ALUMINIUM STEELIndex: 2002 = 100 Index: 2002 = 100Index: 2002 = 100
Steel price: China Domestic HRC
Capítulo 1
5
Iron ore market dynamics Iron Ore Seaborne Market - Australia x Brazil
159 172194
216231
261
282310
313 325 335337
365
370
207215 216
256 271
296
333
375
420
470
510
563
647
693
100
200
300
400
500
600
700 Brazil AustraliaF´cast
Through 2015, seaborne supply additions are estimated to be above 300Mt, with Australia accounting for around 50% of total growth, and Brazil
less than 30%. Australia continues to gain share in the Chinese import market, largely at the expense of India whose market share has slipped to
a record low of 8% in Jan-Feb 2012. Stricter environmental rules have been a reality globally, which should result in higher lead times to bring on
new capacity. Slow permitting processes in Brazil have fueled even more constant delays (approx. 2 years).
SOURCE: BARCLAYS AND FERROUS
Capítulo 1
6
Iron ore market dynamics Iron Ore Cost Curve
Brazil and Australia are well known for their high quality reserves and efficient logistics solutions. The
back end of the cost curve is mainly comprised of high cost Chinese and Indian producers with average
cash cost levels above US$120/ton. Poor quality reserves and highly un-mechanized/small mines are the
main reasons for high marginal costs in China.
SOURCE: DEUTSCHE
Capítulo 1
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Platts IO Daily 62% Platts IO 62% Average Annual Price
Platts IO 62% Average Annual Price YTD
Iron ore market dynamics Volatility of prices is high, but the quarterly mean is
over $110/dmt
7
2012 - IT MAY BE SLOWING BUT IT´S STILL GROWING
USD
/dm
t
Despite all the rhetoric regarding slower Chinese growth and European recession, the reality is that 2012 will be another
tight year for global seaborne iron ore supply especially for spot proces below $110/dmt
IRON ORE PRICES (USD/DMT)
AVERAGE OF THE ACTUAL QUARTER
IRON ORE PRICES
* QTD: 02/11/2012
SOURCE: PLATTS, DEUTSCHE AND MARKET
142 143 141
113 116
Q4' 11 Q1' 12 Q2' 12 Q3' 12 Q4' 12
(QTD)*
Capítulo 1
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Daily Platts 62% CFR China FOB
I.O. Price 62%Fe Asia (USD/dmt) BENCHMARK
I.O. Price 62%Fe Asia (USD/dmt) QUARTELY MOVING AVERAGE
I.O. Price 62%Fe Asia (USD/dmt) MONTHLY AVERAGE
I.O. PRICE 62%FE ASIA (USD/DMT)
• Increased market confidence
• Chinese government supporting growth,
Iron ore market dynamicsA Challenging Short Term Scenario
85
105
125
145
165
185
US
D/d
mt
Iron Ore Fines 62% CFR North China ($/dmt)
122.00
42
52 55
83
115
155 155
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mt
US
D/d
mt
FMG Iron Ore Tonnage Iron Ore Price 62% CFR China Iron Ore Price Forecast 62% CFR China
Iron Ore Price 58% FOB China Iron Ore Price Forecast 58% FOB China Iron Ore Price 58% CFR China
Iron Ore Price Forecast 58% CFR China
WOULD IT BREACH DEBT COVENANTS?
Iron ore market dynamics FMG situation USD 120/dmt 62% CFR China?
Total Cost
USD 95~105/t
Total Cost
USD 65~75/t
~USD -21/dmt
9
Capítulo 1
Sharp fall in steel mills inventories cannot last forever – the depth of destocking has been greater than initially anticipated, his is putting
continued downside pressure on iron ore prices. Although it seams similar to last year (September/October/2011), there are some important
differences such as level of purchasing activity specifically of imported iron ore against the spot price for imported ore. Iron ore purchasing
activity at the smaller mills has not slowed much in recent months but still the iron ore price is falling . Over September-October 2011, the
smaller mills reduced inventory by simply buying less iron ore. This year, purchasing activity has hardly been reduced and inventory volumes
have been run down instead by increasing the rate of consumption of iron ore – by keeping pig iron and crude steel production volumes at a
high level. This goes someway to explaining why the reported crude steel production numbers remain persistently high.
10
Iron ore market dynamicsA Challenging Scenario, new paradigm
CHINA IRON ORE MARKET
SOURCE: MACQUARIE
*
*the mills produce less than 5mtpa of steel and account for ~30% of Chinese production
IRON ORE INVENTORY (DAYS OF USE) HELD BY 50 SMALLER
STEEL MILLS * X INTERNATIONAL SPOT PRICES
IMPLIED IRON ORE PURCHASING (CONSUMPTION NET
OF STOCK CHANGES), VS SPOT PRICE
Capítulo 1
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
Mt
US
D/d
mt
TOTAL 367 Mt
TOTAL 444 Mt TOTAL 384 Mt
Vale
25%
BHP
14%Rio
Tinto
22%FMG;
0%
Others
39%
Vale
18%
BHP
15%Rio
Tinto
22%
FMG
3%
Others
45%
Iron ore market dynamicsChina market share competition
IRON ORE PRICE X I.O. TONNAGE IMPORTED BY CHINA
CHINA OVERSUPPLY – CHINA MARKET SHARE COMPETITION
During previous crisis (2008) some players reduced tonnage offer in an attempt to hold the prices but others continued to sell iron ore to
market unrestrainedly. In the 1995–2003 period, anywhere between 20 and 30 countries satisfied the Chinese market. However, as the call on
seaborne material increased, so material from additional suppliers was sought, with 30–45 exporters to China through 2010. In 2011,
however, this number jumped to 59, with countries such as Kenya, Azerbaijan and even the UK exporting ore to China. This again highlights
the ever-expanding horizon of Chinese buyers to source any available iron units.
CHINA IMPORTS OF IRON ORE BY ORIGIN
2007 2008
SOURCE: PLATTS, VALE, UMETAL, MACQUARIE AND CRU
Vale -
7%
11
Vale
17%
Australia
49%
Others
34%
1H’12
Capítulo 1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200Daily Platts 62% Fe CFR China
Daily Platts 62% Fe FOB China
Iron Ore Prices
SOURCE: PLATTS , THE TEX REPORT, WOODMACQUENZIE E CRU
123 122127 128
118 117 120
I.O. PRICE 62%FE CHINA (USD/dmt)
PROJECTION
+ USD 33,50
~ + 38%
97
117116
55
Iron ore prices reached USD 122/dmt CFR China, USD 33,50dmt above the lowest point this year which reflects the fact that, at the beginning
of last week the Chinese mills returned to the market after the Chinese new year holiday. Given that Chinese steelmakers currently rely on
low stock of iron ore, today are in urgent need to replenish them.
122
Capítulo 1
12
Ferrous overviewHighlights
INCORPORATED IN FEB´07 TO FOCUS ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND OPERATION OF IRON ORE
ASSETS IN BRAZIL
THE COMPANY HAS INVESTED OVER USD 1BN IN ITS IRON ORE PROJECTS
ASSETS COMPRISED OF 5 MINERAL AREAS IN THE IRON ORE QUADRANGLE AND A WHOLLY-
OWNED INTEGRATED LOGISTICS SYSTEM
IN 2010, FERROUS INITIATED MINING ACTIVITIES AND IS CURRENTLY OPERATING AT A RUN-RATE
OF 3.6 MTPA
FERROUS HAS ALSO RECEIVED LICENSES FOR ITS INTEGRATED IRON ORE DEVELOPMENT,
INCLUDING 15MTPA PRODUCTION AT VIGA MINE, AND ITS PIPELINE AND PORT LOGISTICS SYSTEM
FERROUS IS THE 4TH IRON ORE COMPANY IN BRAZIL TO OBTAIN A LICENSE FOR A PRIVATE PORT.
VALE, MMX AND SAMARCO ARE THE ONLY OTHERS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING AND GENERATING POSITIVE EBITDA
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Capítulo 1
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Ferrous assets JORC-compliant Resources
JORC: Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee, provide a minimum standard for reporting of exploration results, Mineral Resources and
Ore Reserves, ensure that public reports on these matters contain all the information which investors and their advisers would reasonably
require for the purpose of making a balanced judgment regarding the results and estimates being reported.
Capítulo 1
Ferrous overviewMRS System
ATLANTIC
OCEAN
MRS CENTRAL
RAIL LINEMRS STEEL
RAIL LINE
MarianaEsperança
Belo
Horizonte
Vale
Mines
Anglo Minas-Rio
Itabira
IRON QUADRANGLE
Third party ports
Sepetiba bay
Rio de
Janeiro
Barra do Pirai
Port Tubarao
VitoriaViga
Port Ubu
EFVM
RAIL LINE
Brismar
Port Açu
Samarco
pipeline
Ferrous Proposed Pipeline Route
Anglo Ferrous Proposed Pipeline
Samarco Pipeline
Existing Railways
Vitória - Minas
0 50 100 200km
Ouro Branco
(Gerdau/Açominas)
Viga Norte
Olhos d´água
Andaime
Serrinha
Viga
Viga Norte
Esperança
Serrinha
Santanense
FERROUS’ MINES IN THE IRON
ORE QUADRANGLE
Santanense
14
Capítulo 1
16
Ferrous assets Comprised of 5 mineral areas in the Iron Ore Quadrangle
VIGA
SERRINHA
VIGA NORTE
EMESASANTANENSE
Source: MMX
Capítulo 1
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• In November 2011, Ferrous completed the construction of a rail terminal at Viga with 18mtpa
loading capacity;
• The terminal provides a cost advantage of at least $7/t for Viga versus peers without onsite logistics;
• Ferrous aims to replicate this success at its other properties in order to reduce logistics costs and
sell 3rd-party terminal services.
Viga rail terminal
Capítulo 1
18
Because of the strategic location of EMESA in the Serra Azul region, we see a significant
opportunity to generate returns through the sale of railway terminal loading capacity.
EMESA rail terminalStrategic Location
Capítulo 1
19
Ferrous Licences
Asset Operation LP LI LO
EMESA Mine Production of 2mtpa finished
products� � �
Santanense Mine Mining and processing of 860kt
ROM� � �
Viga Mine Production of 2mtpa finished
products� � �
Viga Mine Production of 15mtpa finished
products� �
Viga Norte Production of 10mtpa finished
products
EIA/RIMA Dec’12
LP Dec’13
Serrinha Production of 8mtpa finished
products
EIA/RIMA Dec’12
LP Dec’13
Pipeline from Viga to
Presidente Kennedy Port
Transportation of 25mtpa finished
products�
Scheduled to
Q2 2013
Presidente Kennedy Port Export of 25mpta finished products�
Scheduled to
Q2 2013
LP: Preliminary License – Validates environmental viability of the project
LI: Installation License – Authorizes construction of the project
LO: Operational License – Approves completion of construction and authorizes operation of the project
Capítulo 1
20
2012 ~ 2015
Chemical (dry basis)
Typical
%
Guaranteed
%
Fe 62.5 62.0 Min
P 0.070 0.090 Max
S 0.020 0.040 Max
Al2O3 1.50 2.00 Max
SiO2 6.50 8.00 Max
H2O 8.00 10.0 Max
Size (wet basis)
Typical
%
Guaranteed
%
>6.50mm 15.0 30.00 Max
<0.106mm 30.0 40.00 Max
2016 ~ 2020 via railway 2021 onwards via pipeline
Chemical (dry basis)
Minimum (e)
%
Maximun(e)
%
Minimum (e)
%
Maximun(e)
%
Fe 65.0 65.5 -
P - 0.065 - 0.060
S - 0.025 - 0.025
Al2O3 - 0.7 - 0.60
SiO2 - 3.6 - 3.80
H2O - 10.5 - 10.5
LOI - 2.5 - 2.40
Size (dry basis) ISO
standardsTypical % Guaranteed % Typical % Guaranteed %
< 0.0150 mm 65.0 - 98.0 -
< 0.045 mm 20.0 - 75.0 -
Blaine (cm2/g) 350 - 1200 -
Ferrous overviewProduct Specification – Iron Ore Fines
Long Term Business Plan
Capítulo 1
22
A combination of grade degradation, infrastructure risk, difficulty in financing, permitting issues and spiraling capital
intensity will cause the supply side to underperform relative to plan. This has been a consistent problem for the past five
years and will probably remain until the end of the decade.SOURCE: FERROUS
EVOLUTION OF FORECASTS FOR BRAZILIAN
SEABORNE SUPPLY (MTPA)
EVOLUTION OF FORECASTS FOR AUSTRALIAN
SEABORNE SUPPLY (MTPA)
280
350
400
450
500
560
600
660
700
280
330
370
420
470
530
600
670
720
270 270
430
460
510
560
600
670
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
2007 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
jun/08 set/09
mai/11 abr/12
270
300
350
400
440
490
510530 540
270
320
350
400
440
500
545
270270
270
300
320340 340
365 370
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
2007 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
jun/08 set/09
mai/11 abr/12
Iron ore market dynamics Seaborne Supply Forecast has been constantly reduced
Capítulo 1
Sepetiba Bay
Inlet Ship Channel
Ship Channel - 21 Miles
TIG - Vale
Railway - MRS
1- Public Terminal – CDRJ
2- TECAR – CSN
3- CPBS - Vale
Sudeste Port – MMX
Alternatives of Ports in Sepetiba Bay
Capítulo 1
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SOURCE: MARKET AND FERROUS
Iron ore market dynamics MRS System Brazil Iron Ore and Iron Ore
Domestic Market Supply BalanceAdjusted
Capítulo 1
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• Engineering
• Procurement
• Construction
• Management
Start up
PROJECT
EXECUTION
FEL 3FEL 3
FEL 2FEL 2
FEL 1FEL 1
1 MINE
2 GOOD
PROJECTS
4 IRON ORE
DEPOSITS
15 MINERAL
DEPOSITS
100 POSSIBLE
TARGETS
PR
OJE
CT
CR
EA
TIO
N
TAR
GE
T C
RE
AT
ION
TAR
GE
T S
TU
DIE
S
AD
VA
NC
ED
PR
OJE
CT
S
• Is there a deposit or not?
• Deposit sizing (volume, grade..)
• Attractiveness evaluation
• Scoping Study
• Conceptual Engineering
• Technical economic feasibility
• Basic Engineering
Abandoned Projects: 75%
Investment expense: 0,5%
Abandoned Projects: 50%
Investment expense: 1,5%
Abandoned Projects: 1%
Investment expense: 4,5%
1000
ANOMALIES
FERROUS WILL UTILIZE THE FEL 3 METHODOLOGY IN ORDER TO EVALUATE DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS PRIOR TO IMPLEMENTATION
FERROUS WILL UTILIZE THE FEL 3 METHODOLOGY IN ORDER TO EVALUATE DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS PRIOR TO IMPLEMENTATION
Long Term VisionFeasibility methodology
Capítulo 1
3 5 5 5
10
17
33
35
47
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2021 2028
26
Ferrous Time Line
Completion of Feasibility Study
Completion of Construction
Mt
Ferrous’ current resource base provides an
opportunity to grow annual production to 47 mtpa
VIGA NORTE 10 mtpa
SERRINHA 8 mtpa
SERRINHA 15 mtpa
EMESA 2 mtpa
LOGISTICS
VIGA + EMESA
VIGA 4MTPA
VIGA 15 mtpa
SANTANENSE 5 mtpa
Capítulo 1
27
SOURCE: BARCLAYS RESEARCH
VIGA
15Mt
USD 80/t
VIGA
15Mt
USD 80/t
Industry average
Ferrous x iron ore projectsCapex Intensity of development Iron Ore Projects
3 17
935
92
2.5Mtpa Expansion
4.0Mtpa Expansion
15Mtpa Expansion
FEL 3 & License Maintenance
65992
80
43 2436
Plant Mining Equipment
Tailings Dam - 7 & 7/A Tailings Dam - 8
Waste Dump Railway
Engineering / Other
VIGA CAPEX (US$mm)
Viga Capex Breakdown – US$mmReal Terms through 2020
28
Capítulo 1
29
PRODUCTION
• 3Mt production for 2012
• Expansion of production capacityto 5.0mtpa for 2013
• Zero “lost-time” accident rate
• Positive recurring EBITDA
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
• BFS for Viga 15mtpa project by July2013
• LI for Pipeline and Port to remainon track for early Q3 2013
• Completion of EIA/RIMA andconceptual engineering forSerrinha 8mtpa by Q2 2013
• Completion of EIA/RIMA andconceptual engineering for VigaNorte 10mtpa by Q2 2013
FERROUS HAS ESTABLISHED A NUMBER OF KEY OPERATIONAL MILESTONES THAT WE EXPECT TO COMPLETE PRIOR TO VIGA 15MTPA IMPLEMENTATION
Business plan
Thank you