the new morality (revisited) - trajectory - home · the new morality in 2017 and beyond...
TRANSCRIPT
March 2017
The New Morality (Revisited)
Introduction
The New Morality in 2012
Individualocracy
Citizen Brands
Individual Brands
Self Preservation Society
C-Suite Scrutiny
The New Morality
Cuts v spending
Business/Institutional
Scandals
Economic crisis
The Trajectory of Financial Crises
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Total GDP, quarterly change after pre-recession peak
80s recession
90s recession
Great Depression
2008 Financial
Crisis
Source: ONS
Institutional Scandal
Uncovering of
institutional scandal
Greater scrutiny on
boardrooms
Post-9/11 Geopolitics
Global Phenomenon in 2012
Impact on CSR and Reputation Management
Area for attention % who
mentioned,
2010
Executive Pay 35%
Employees being able
to speak about
company wrongdoings
24%
Sweatshop labour 23%
Environmental
Responsibility
21%
Area for attention % who
mentioned,
2006
Concern for the
environment
44%
Caring for employees 33%
Conserving energy 29%
Providing more jobs 28%
The shift in consumers’ ethical concerns since the outset of the downturn
reflects our finding that consumers are most likely to be agitated by
issues which might affect them
Source: Ipsos MORI, What areas should companies pay attention to/most need addressing?
Some trends…
The Moral Pulse of the Nation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jun
-97
Oc
t-9
7
Feb
-98
Jun
-98
Oc
t-9
8
Feb
-99
Jun
-99
Oc
t-9
9
Feb
-00
Jun
-00
Oc
t-0
0
Feb
-01
Jul-01
No
v-0
1
Ap
r-02
Se
p-0
2
Jan
-03
Ma
y-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Jan
-04
Ma
y-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Jan
-05
Jun
-05
Oc
t-0
5
Ma
r-06
Jul-06
De
c-0
6
Jun
-07
Oc
t-0
7
Ma
r-08
Jul-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-09
Au
g-0
9
Ma
r-10
Jul-10
No
v-1
0
Ma
r-11
Jul-11
No
v-1
1
Ma
r-12
Jul-12
No
v-1
2
Ma
r-13
Jul-13
No
v-1
3
Ma
r-14
Jul-14
No
v-1
4
Ma
r-15
Jul-15
No
v-1
5
Ma
r-16
Jul-16
Defence/ForeignAffairs/InternationalTerrorism Economy/EconomicSituation
Housing NHS
Pollution/Environment Poverty
Immigration(RaceRelations/Immigration)
Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016
Economic Situation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Ju
n-9
7
Oc
t-97
Fe
b-9
8
Ju
n-9
8
Oc
t-98
Fe
b-9
9
Ju
n-9
9
Oc
t-99
Fe
b-0
0
Ju
n-0
0
Oc
t-00
Fe
b-0
1
Ju
l-01
No
v-0
1
Ap
r-02
Au
g-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ap
r-03
Au
g-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ap
r-04
Au
g-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ma
y-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Fe
b-0
6
Ju
n-0
6
No
v-0
6
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Fe
b-0
8
Ju
n-0
8
Oc
t-08
Fe
b-0
9
Ju
l-09
Fe
b-1
0
Ju
n-1
0
Oc
t-10
Fe
b-1
1
Ju
n-1
1
Oc
t-11
Fe
b-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Oc
t-12
Fe
b-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Oc
t-13
Fe
b-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Oc
t-14
Fe
b-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Oc
t-15
Fe
b-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Oc
t-16
Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016
Lehman Bros.
Northern Rock
Pollution/Environment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Ju
n-9
7
Oc
t-97
Fe
b-9
8
Ju
n-9
8
Oc
t-98
Fe
b-9
9
Ju
n-9
9
Oc
t-99
Fe
b-0
0
Ju
n-0
0
Oc
t-00
Fe
b-0
1
Ju
l-01
No
v-0
1
Ap
r-02
Au
g-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ap
r-03
Au
g-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ap
r-04
Au
g-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ma
y-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Fe
b-0
6
Ju
n-0
6
No
v-0
6
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Fe
b-0
8
Ju
n-0
8
Oc
t-08
Fe
b-0
9
Ju
l-09
Fe
b-1
0
Ju
n-1
0
Oc
t-10
Fe
b-1
1
Ju
n-1
1
Oc
t-11
Fe
b-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Oc
t-12
Fe
b-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Oc
t-13
Fe
b-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Oc
t-14
Fe
b-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Oc
t-15
Fe
b-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Oc
t-16
Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016
Pollution/Environment
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Ju
n-9
7
Oc
t-97
Fe
b-9
8
Ju
n-9
8
Oc
t-98
Fe
b-9
9
Ju
n-9
9
Oc
t-99
Fe
b-0
0
Ju
n-0
0
Oc
t-00
Fe
b-0
1
Ju
l-01
No
v-0
1
Ap
r-02
Au
g-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ap
r-03
Au
g-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ap
r-04
Au
g-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ma
y-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Fe
b-0
6
Ju
n-0
6
No
v-0
6
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Fe
b-0
8
Ju
n-0
8
Oc
t-08
Fe
b-0
9
Ju
l-09
Fe
b-1
0
Ju
n-1
0
Oc
t-10
Fe
b-1
1
Ju
n-1
1
Oc
t-11
Fe
b-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Oc
t-12
Fe
b-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Oc
t-13
Fe
b-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Oc
t-14
Fe
b-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Oc
t-15
Fe
b-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Oc
t-16
Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016
Jan 2007:
1 in 5
Feb 2012:
1 in 50
Defence/Terrorism
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Ju
n-9
7
Oc
t-97
Fe
b-9
8
Ju
n-9
8
Oc
t-98
Fe
b-9
9
Ju
n-9
9
Oc
t-99
Fe
b-0
0
Ju
n-0
0
Oc
t-00
Fe
b-0
1
Ju
l-01
No
v-0
1
Ap
r-02
Au
g-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ap
r-03
Au
g-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ap
r-04
Au
g-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ma
y-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Fe
b-0
6
Ju
n-0
6
No
v-0
6
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Fe
b-0
8
Ju
n-0
8
Oc
t-08
Fe
b-0
9
Ju
l-09
Fe
b-1
0
Ju
n-1
0
Oc
t-10
Fe
b-1
1
Ju
n-1
1
Oc
t-11
Fe
b-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Oc
t-12
Fe
b-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Oc
t-13
Fe
b-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Oc
t-14
Fe
b-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Oc
t-15
Fe
b-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Oc
t-16
Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016
9/11 7/7
Invasion of Iraq
Paris Attacks
Immigration
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Ju
n-9
7
Oc
t-97
Fe
b-9
8
Ju
n-9
8
Oc
t-98
Fe
b-9
9
Ju
n-9
9
Oc
t-99
Fe
b-0
0
Ju
n-0
0
Oc
t-00
Fe
b-0
1
Ju
l-01
No
v-0
1
Ap
r-02
Au
g-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ap
r-03
Au
g-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ap
r-04
Au
g-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ma
y-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Fe
b-0
6
Ju
n-0
6
No
v-0
6
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Fe
b-0
8
Ju
n-0
8
Oc
t-08
Fe
b-0
9
Ju
l-09
Fe
b-1
0
Ju
n-1
0
Oc
t-10
Fe
b-1
1
Ju
n-1
1
Oc
t-11
Fe
b-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Oc
t-12
Fe
b-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Oc
t-13
Fe
b-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Oc
t-14
Fe
b-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Oc
t-15
Fe
b-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Oc
t-16
Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016
Concern about poverty and housing on the rise
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jun
-97
Oc
t-9
7
Feb
-98
Jun
-98
Oc
t-9
8
Feb
-99
Jun
-99
Oc
t-9
9
Feb
-00
Jun
-00
Oc
t-0
0
Feb
-01
Jul-01
No
v-0
1
Ap
r-02
Se
p-0
2
Jan
-03
Ma
y-0
3
Se
p-0
3
Jan
-04
Ma
y-0
4
Se
p-0
4
Jan
-05
Jun
-05
Oc
t-0
5
Ma
r-06
Jul-06
De
c-0
6
Jun
-07
Oc
t-0
7
Ma
r-08
Jul-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-09
Au
g-0
9
Ma
r-10
Jul-10
No
v-1
0
Ma
r-11
Jul-11
No
v-1
1
Ma
r-12
Jul-12
No
v-1
2
Ma
r-13
Jul-13
No
v-1
3
Ma
r-14
Jul-14
No
v-1
4
Ma
r-15
Jul-15
No
v-1
5
Ma
r-16
Jul-16
Housing Poverty
Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016
The NHS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Ju
n-9
7
Oc
t-97
Fe
b-9
8
Ju
n-9
8
Oc
t-98
Fe
b-9
9
Ju
n-9
9
Oc
t-99
Fe
b-0
0
Ju
n-0
0
Oc
t-00
Fe
b-0
1
Ju
l-01
No
v-0
1
Ap
r-02
Au
g-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ap
r-03
Au
g-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ap
r-04
Au
g-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ma
y-0
5
Se
p-0
5
Fe
b-0
6
Ju
n-0
6
No
v-0
6
Ma
y-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Fe
b-0
8
Ju
n-0
8
Oc
t-08
Fe
b-0
9
Ju
l-09
Fe
b-1
0
Ju
n-1
0
Oc
t-10
Fe
b-1
1
Ju
n-1
1
Oc
t-11
Fe
b-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Oc
t-12
Fe
b-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Oc
t-13
Fe
b-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Oc
t-14
Fe
b-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Oc
t-15
Fe
b-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Oc
t-16
Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016
Where are we now?
Where are we (right) now?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60 An important issue Most important issue
Source: IPSOS MORI Feb 2017
A United States perspective
Parallels between the UK and the US?
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Source: Gallup March 2017
An International Perspective
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1989-1993 1994-1999 1999-2004 2005-2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Immigrants/Foreign Workers (Below is a list of various groups of people, could
you please select any that you would not like to have as neighbours?)
UK
USA
Italy
Germany
Spain
Poland
China
Japan
Brazil
Mexico
Source: pre-2011, World Values Survey; post-2011, Trajectory Global Foresight
Where are we heading?
More than a lost decade…
Source: IFS
Anti-benefit feeling is still strong
1989, 15%
2009, 43%
2015, 31%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% disagree government should spend more money on welfare benefits
Source: British Social Attitudes
A hierarchy of the deserving…
2008, 83%
2015, 75%
2008, 67%
2008, 61%2015, 61%
2008, 72%
2015, 49%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2011 2013 2015
% would like to see more government spending on benefits for…
…people who care for those
who are sick or disabled
…parents who work on very
low incomes
…disabled people who cannot
work
…retired people
Source: British Social Attitudes
A more polarised morality?
Trust in business, institutions and experts is
on the retreat
“The 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer reveals the
largest-ever drop in trust across the institutions of
government, business, media and NGOs. Trust in
media (43 percent) fell precipitously and is at all-
time lows in 17 countries, while trust levels in
government (41 percent) dropped in 14 markets
and is the least trusted institution in half of the 28
countries surveyed.
The credibility of leaders also is in peril: CEO
credibility dropped 12 points globally to an all-
time low of 37 percent, plummeting in every
country studied, while government leaders (29
percent) remain least credible.
The Trust Barometer found that 53 percent of
respondents believe the current overall system
has failed them—it is unfair and offers little hope
for the future—while only 15 percent believe it is
working, and approximately one-third are
uncertain.”
Trust in ‘the people’ on the rise
30% 30%
39%
34%
40% 41%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1994-1999 1999-2004 2005-2007 2011 2013 2014 2015
Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you
can't be too careful in dealing with people?; “Most people can be trusted”
Source: pre-2011, World Values Survey; post-2011, Trajectory Global Foresight
Implications for brand and reputation management
The New Morality in 2012
Individualocracy
Citizen Brands
Individual Brands
Self Preservation Society
C-Suite Scrutiny
The New Morality
Cuts v spending
Business/Institutional
scandals
Economic crisis
The New Morality in 2017 and beyond
Individualocracy
Clarity & Honesty of
brand purpose
Self Preservation Society
Death of Deference
The New Morality
Polarisation
Trust in ‘people’ over
business/institutions
Economic stagnation
Trajectory
22 Upper Ground, London, SE1 9PD
+ 44 (0)20 8004 4869
trajectorypartnership.com
@TrajectoryTweet