the need for safety intelligence based on european safety

The need for Safety Intelligence based on European safety data

analysis

Rachel Daeschler Head of Safety Intelligence and Performance OPTICS Workshop, 29 April 2015

Content

Introduction to EASA

Safety Intelligence

EASA Safety Intelligence activities

Looking ahead: using ECR data

Looking ahead even further: big data

OPTICS Workshop – 29 April 2015 2


3 OPTICS Workshop – 29 April 2015

Scope of competences

6

ATM/ANS Aerodromes 3rd Country Operations

Operations & FCL

Airworthiness

EASA Safety Regulator

Safety significantly affects all aviation domains:

Total System Approach

OPTICS Workshop – 29 April 2015

Partnership with EU States

7

Member states

Implementing EU Legislation

Oversight of national organisations Production

Maintenance

OPs/Licencing

Training

ATM

Aerodromes

Implementing rules

Oversight of Member States

Aircraft and products certification

Safety of non-EU operations

Approval of non-EU organisations Production

Maintenance

Training

ATM


EASA Structure

EASA General Presentation 8

Safety Intelligence

What is it and what is it for?


Safety Intelligence

Knowledge gained through the analysis of available safety data including research

Knowledge on safety performance, on safety issues

How does Safety Intelligence help to improve Safety?

Enables Safety Management, in particular Risk Management

Enables Safety Promotion actions


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Safety Intelligence in support of SMS source: SMICG

•A process for the acquisition of safety data not only related to product safety

Safety reporting

•A method for identifying hazards related to the whole organisation (operational + systemic hazards)

Hazard identification

•A standard approach for assessing risks and for applying risk controls

Risk Management

•Management tools for analysing how effectively the organisation’s safety goals are being achieved

Performance Measurement

•Processes based on quality management principles that support continual improvement of the organisation’s safety performance

Safety Assurance


Which Safety Data?


Safety Recommendations

Occurrence Data

Safety Reports

Flight Data: FDM, Radar

Results of Audits, Inspections

Reliability data

Exposure and Context Data

Audiences


EASA Safety Intelligence Activities

OPTICS Workshop 29 April 2015 14

EASA Safety Intelligence activities

Processing Safety Recommendations

Processing Reported Occurrences

Annual Safety Review, Safety Analysis

Building a structured safety risk management

Research


Processing Safety Recommendations


19

43 44

54 57

108

94

118

94 98

88

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total

Safety Recommendations received per year

Closing replies provided in 2014

Agreement 35

Partial Agreement

66

Disagreement 30

No longer applicable

1

Not responsible 1

Processing Reported Occurrences


Processing Reported Occurrences (2014 figures)


Annual Safety Review


0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1,60

1,80

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200

400

600

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1.200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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Year Fatalities Passengers Transported

Rulemaking, Standardisation and Certification Process Data

Accident Follow-up

Occurrence Reporting (IORS)

Safety Analysis


Safety Issues from Approved Orgs & TCH

Accidents & Incidents + Exposure

SAFA Data Analysis

RAMP inspections results

Follow-up of accidents

States and Industry Data

Safe

ty D

ata

Building Safety Risk Management

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European Aviation Safety plan Annual Safety Review

Product Safety Oversight & Organisation Approvals

Regulation

Safety Promotion

States and Industry Actions(SSP + SMS)

Safe

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Inspection of Member States

Operators(SAFA/SACA/TCO)

International Cooperation

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)OPTICS Workshop – 29 April 2015

Rulemaking, Standardisation and Certification Process Data

Accident Follow-up

Occurrence Reporting (IORS)

Safety Analysis


Safety Issues from Approved Orgs & TCH

Accidents & Incidents + Exposure

SAFA Data Analysis

RAMP inspections results

Follow-up of accidents

States and Industry Data

Safe

ty D

ata

Product Safety Oversight

Regulation

Organisation Approvals

States and Industry Actions(SSP + SMS)

Safe

ty P

rio

riti

es

Inspection of Member States

Operators(SAFA/SACA/TCO)

International Cooperation

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SRP

ESC

Safety Risk Portfolio

Safety Risk Monitoring

21

ASR

EASp





Safety Issue

Identification

Analysis of occurrence

data

Analysis of other

information

Emerging Safety Issues

Safety Issue Assessment

Scope

Causes

Consequences

Risk Controls

Risk Assessment

(using ARMS when possible)

Safety Action

Programming

Definition of Actions

Impact assessment, prioritisation

Follow-up of implementation

Safety Performance

Indicators relevant for

monitoring the safety issue

Indicators relevant for measuring

efficiency of actions


Safety Analysis at the level of the aviation activity area Ongoing: Balloons Accidents

Ongoing: Offshore Helicopters accidents

Safety Analysis at the level of the accident category Ongoing: LOC-I Study

Safety Analysis at the level of the safety issue Ongoing: Erroneous Take-Off parameters

Risk Assessment Methodology Use of ARMS when possible.

Example: Report on Occurrences over High Seas involving Military Aircraft

http://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/air/news/doc/2015-04-14-civil-military-coordination/report-on-occurrences-over-the-high-seas-involving-military-aircraft-in-2014.pdf


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Example of Safety Issue ID Balloons – Weather Planning


1. Identification of Safety Issue

Description & Stakeholders Provide a problem statement for the safety issue. If there are several scenarios that are relevant, please describe each of them separately here. Describe who is affected by the described issue, in which flight phases and circumstances. Insufficient or poor weather planning leading to unexpected encounters with weather phenomena for which the pilot is subsequently unprepared. All aspects of balloon operations in CAT and GA (pleasure flying)

Source & Rationale What triggered the identification of the issue? Are there safety studies available? Analysis of Hot Air Balloon occurrences in the Balloon Accident Data Coding and Analysis Group in March 2015.

2.Assessment of Safety Issue Scenario 1 Poor planning resulting in an unexpected weather encounter during the

enroute phase

Scenario 2 Poor planning resulting in an unexpected weather encounter during the landing phase

Accident Outcome Risk (ARMS) CICTT Cat. Accident Outcome Risk (ARMS) CICTT Cat. Loss of control Monitor LOC-I Collision with Object During

Landing Hard Landing

Improve CTOL

ARC

Negative factors/causes What actions or conditions increase or cause the accident risk? 1. Incorrect or unavailable meteorological information. 2. Meteorological information available but not used in the pre-flight planning process. 3. Pilot fails to interpret the relevance of meteorological information with reference to their planned flight. 4. External factors (commercial or competition pressure) or personal risk perception leads to an incorrect flight planning or flight initiation decision.

Positive factors What events or conditions have a significant influence on reducing the risk? 1. Meteorological information readily available through public sources (Internet) 2. All major balloon events provide clear meteorological information for all pilots. 3. Training in interpretation of meteorological information in balloon pilot training and licensing process.

Negative factors/causes What actions or conditions increase or cause the accident risk? 1. Incorrect or unavailable meteorological information. 2. Meteorological information available but not used in the pre-flight planning process. 3. Pilot fails to interpret the relevance of meteorological information with reference to their planned flight. 4. External factors (commercial or competition pressure) or personal risk perception leads to an incorrect flight planning or flight initiation decision. 5. Need for good pilot understanding of balloon physics and inertia.

Positive factors What events or conditions have a significant influence on reducing the risk? 1. Meteorological information readily available through public sources (Internet) 2. All major balloon events provide clear meteorological information for all pilots. 3. Training in interpretation of meteorological information in balloon pilot training and licensing process. 4. Training in balloon physics and inertia in balloon pilot training and licensing process.

Overall Risk Level (ARMS) Improve

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Example of Safety Issue ID Balloons – Weather Planning

OPTIS Workshop – 29 April 2015

4. Safety Performance

Date Safety Performance Measurement (Purpose and Parameters)

Owner Frequency?

30/09/2019 Scenario 1. - LOC-I for Balloons in Enroute Phase – Weather Relevant = Yes - Event Type Level 3 – Environmental Weather Encounters in Enroute Phase - Event Type Level 3 – Ground Conflict (Collisions or Near-Collisions) in Enroute Phase with associated Events

BADCAG Annually

Scenario 2. - ARC and CTOL for Balloons in Approach or Landing Phase – Weather Relevant = Yes - Event Type Level 3 – Environmental Weather Encounters in Approach or Landing Phase - Event Type Level 3 – Ground Conflict (Collisions or Near-Collisions) in Approach or Landing Phase with associated Events - Event Type Level 3 - Balloon Specific Events in Approach or Landing Phase with associated Events

BADCAG Annually

3. Safety Actions and Impact

Actions/Risk controls in place What is in place to reduce the likelihood or severity of the scenario? Is it effective? 1. Meteorological information readily available through public sources (Internet). 2. All major balloon events provide clear meteorological information for all pilots. 3. Training in interpretation of meteorological information in balloon pilot training and licensing process. 4. Training in balloon physics and inertia in balloon pilot training and licensing process.

New Actions/Risk Control Action Id & Date

Short description Action Type Action Owner IA Score New Risks? Status

BA001 08/04/2015

Develop promotion package to assist balloon pilots in the availability and interpretation of meteorological information as relevant to balloon operations.

Safety Promotion

Safety Promotion Programme Manager

TBD N Open

BA002 08/04/2015

Develop promotion package to inform balloon pilots on the dangers of poor planning and good practices in the flight planning and decision making process.

Safety Promotion

Safety Promotion Programme Manager

TBD N Open

Looking ahead: using data from the European Central Repository


Regulation EU 376/2014 on Occurrence Reporting


• To improve aviation safety by ensuring that relevant civil aviation safety information is reported, analysed and followed-up

• To ensure continued availability of safety information through Just Culture

What are the objectives of the Regulation?

• ‘occurrence’ means any safety-related event which endangers or which, if not corrected or addressed, could endanger an aircraft, its occupants or any other person and includes in particular an accident or serious incident;

To what kind of event does it apply?

• The Member States

• EASA

• Organisations established in a MS which employs the persons covered by Art. 4

• Natural persons as described in Art.4

To who does it apply?

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MS1

MS3

MS2

ORG

ORG

ORG ORG

ORG ORG

ECR

Directive 2003/42/EC

Regulations 1321/2007 and 1330/2007

Regulation 376/2014

MS4

BR 216/2008 + IRs

EU 376/2014 – Topology of occurrence data

EASA MS

ORG

ORG



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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

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Year report created

Average number of occurrence reports integrated daily in the ECR

Looking ahead: using data from ECR

Looking ahead further:

A safety data exchange programme for Europe

OPTICS Workshop 29 April 2015 30

Towards a European big data project?


Enhance aviation safety in Europe

by moving from a reactive to a pro-

active safety management

Available safety data (FDM,

reports, radar, …)

Big data technologies

allowing for the processing of large

amount of data

Successful operation of similar data

sharing initiatives (e.g. FAA ASIAS)

European Data Exchange Programme for Aviation Safety

Feasibility Study until September 2015

Looking for funding routes

Go/No Go decision : end 2015

A Programme based on voluntary participation

Need for high level of data protection and security


Big Data - Ongoing Feasibility Study


•Which safety data, for which benefit? • Descriptive list of all datasets that can be used

• Type of the potential data, source(s) and owners

• List of potential safety benefits that would be generated

•What are the risks? How can they mitigated?

•For each category of data owners :

• Level of protection expected from technical and legal perspectives

• Benefits expected from joining a data sharing system

• Potential cost assessment to obtain data

• Organizational barriers

•Which Governance? • List of all potential stakeholders

• Proposition of an organization: actors, responsibilities and processes

• Proposed model on how this programme could be integrated within the European Aviation system

•What supporting technical system?

• High level requirements for the selection of potential “providers”

• Assessment review for IT infrastructure and technologies: data storage, processing, analysis and visualization

•Which Phasing and Resources? • Proposed plan

• Budget estimation

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Thank you for your attention

the need for safety intelligence based on european safety

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