The National Center for Atmospheric Research

(NCAR)December 2006

Guy P. BrasseurNational Center for Atmospheric Research

“I have a very strong feeling that science exists to serve human

welfare. It’s wonderful to have the opportunity given us by society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral

responsibility to apply that research to benefiting humanity.”

Walter Orr Roberts

• National Science Foundation funded Center, >1,000 Scientists and engineers, 47 year history

• Earth System Sciences:Computational and Observational Science and facilities for Weather, Climate, Chemistry, Space Weather, Society-Environment Interactions

National Center for Atmospheric Research

• A federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) operated by UCAR and supported by NSF (and others)

• A national center for research and education in the atmospheric and related sciences

• A provider of computational, data, and observational facilities and services for the university community

National Center for Atmospheric Research

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7GLOBAL-MEAN TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 1990 (oC)

PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING

TAR RANG

1990-2030

1990-2070

1990-2100

Societal Impacts

SCD

CDS

DFS

FPS

ISF

RAF

RSF

TDF

ACD

CGD

HAO

MMM

AAP

HAP

JNT

NSAP

WSAP

ASP

CCB

IMAGe

TIIMES

ISSE

Computational and Information Systems

Laboratory

(CISL)

EarthObservingLaboratory

(EOL)

Earth and Sun Systems

Laboratory

(ESSL)

ResearchApplications Laboratory

(RAL)

Societal-Environmental Research and Education

Laboratory

(SERE)A. Kellie R. Wakimoto G. Brasseur B. Foote P. Backlund

(Interim)

University Collaborations and New Programs

UCAR

NCAR Directorate

Scientific Research Divisions Newly Formed Institutes Facility and Service Providers Education and Application Programs

July 2006

FY2005 NCAR Expenditures by Fund SourceIn Millions Total: $150.5

FAA$12.3

8%

DOD$11.1

7%

NASA$7.6 5%

UNIV$4.8 3%

NSF$81.4 55%

NSF-Spec$10.1

7%

NSF-HIAPER$9.5 6%

DOE$3.6 2%

OTHER$2.3 2%

NOAA$3.6 2%

COMM$1.8 1%

FOREIGN$2.4 2%

• Integrator – Generating and disseminating knowledge and information across disciplines and from many sources

Themes of NCAR’s Strategy

20012006

• Innovator – Creating new practices and methods across our service, research, and education activities

• Community Builder –Organizing and supporting the community

Threads - Our Crystal Ball

• Amazing Science (weather-seasonal-climate)

• Information Technology• Decision Support• Education• Addressing grand challenges for science

and society in the decades to come

All visitors: 5% ($6.6M)

NCAR – all Labs ($143.9M)

37% 57% 6%

Research E & OService

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effo

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in C

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Investment ($M)10.0 22.1 5.7 11.1 4.5 18.5 8.8 9.3 20.4 6.5 5.5 11.7 1.0 3.3 4.5 1.1

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285

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357

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NCAR Peer-Reviewed Publications

NCAR Authors Joint with Outside Authors

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Total NCAR Visits in FY 2006

490

13876

FY 2006 NCAR Visitor UniversiAffiliation

Other33% University

Affiliation67%

41 48

A “Model Center” for the 21st Century

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FemaleMinority

Some New NCAR Scientists

Science Highlights

Weather

Nature Reveals Her Secrets Slowly…

ECMWF

! “Day 5” weather forecast as accurate today as the “Day 3” forecast was 25 years ago!

! Both hemispheres now equally accurate (or inaccurate, depending on your point of view)

NCAR Regional Climate Modeling: 3-y Simulated Tropical Cyclone Development

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ObservedSimulated

Community Model:NCAR 4 km Moving-Grid Katrina

Wind Forecast

Wind Speed (m/s)

Cat 1: 33-42Cat 2: 42-50Cat 3: 50-59Cat 4: 60-69Cat 5: >69

Initialized27 Aug 2005 00 Z

Decision Support:Land-falling winds, Natural Gas Pipelines, ProcessingPlants & Compressors

Hurricane Ernesto WRF Forecast of Interactions with

Land

NTDA Demonstration Concept/EXPERIMENTAL TURBULENCE FI UAL███/AN N███UA UPLINK-- 05 Sep 2006 21:38:13Z FL 300 orient. 83 deg'+'=waypoint, '*'=route, 'X'=aircraft at 38.3N, 80.6W' '=no_data, 'o'=smooth, 'l'=light, 'M'=mod, 'S'=severe-----------------------(52 to IAD)------------------------

| *| *

MM | *MM | *MM | l lll M *MMM | lollo *lMl | oolo *l | oo *

| *|080 *

M |llllllll ll *MM |lllllllllllllll l *lll |lllllllllollllllll *MMl l |MMllllllllooollllll *MMl l |MMMl lllllllllollll *MM l |MMMM llll llol ll *MM | MMMM ll *MMS | MMM *MSS | MM *MSS +PUTTZ +MSS | * SSSSSSMSS M | l S*SSSSSSSSSMSS M | lllS*SSSMSSSSSMSS l | lSMS*SMMMMSSSSMSS l | SSMM*MMMMMMMMMSS M | MM*SMMMMMMMMlllllMSS M | M*SSMMMMMMMMllllllMMM M | *MMMMMMMMMMMMMllllMMM | * MMlllMMMlMllllllMlll |040 * lllllllllllllllllMMllll | * llllllllllllllllS | * llllllllllMMS | * lllllllSSS | * lllllSSS | * lllMMS | * l llMM | *MM M | MM*MM o

MSS | SM*MMMMM | MM *MM lMM | MMMSS S * l llM | MMMSSM * lllllll ol |l MMMM * lllllo

| MMMMM * llllll| M * lllll| SSS * llll

ll | SSS M l * llll | SSS Mlllll *llM | MM lMlllll * l-------|---------valid-|--------X--------|-----------------90 +90|Left 40 2135Z (18 from 3819N/8058W) Right 40

Java web-based turbulence display

Sample uplink message Flight information

Legend

Route

Severe turbulence

Aircraft position

Waypoint

Vertical cross-section

Moderate turbulence

Severe turbulence

In situturbulence

reports

Moderate turbulence

Atmospheric Chemistry

Chemical Behavior of the Tropopause Observed on the 1st HIAPER Research Flight

Tropopause fold and the mixing of stratosphere and troposphere air2005-12-01, the START experiment

Stratosphere

Trop

Strat

Mix

MixTroposphere

Forecasting Pollution Plumes

• Atmospheric chemistry field campaign flight planning is aided by the ability to forecast the occurrence of pollution plumes

• The ACD satellite and modeling groups have developed a unique tool that was used during the Spring 2006 NSF/NCAR MIRAGE and NASA INTEX-B campaigns

• A pollution plume predictive capability was provided by the assimilation of near-real-time MOPITT carbon monoxide data into the MOZART chemical transport model

• This clearly indicated the intercontinental transport pathways of pollution from Chinese industry and south Asian biomass burning, guiding aircraft flight tracks

Pollution in the Mexico City Valley (Photo taken from the NASA/UND DC-8 Aircraft)

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CONOySO2Toluene

Megacity Impacts on Regional and Global EnvironmentsMIRAGE - IOP 1-30 March 2006

Scientific objectives:• First ever characterization of regional air quality in

Mexico• Geographical extent and temporal persistence of

the urban plume • Regional production of oxidants and radicals• Fate of hydrocarbon oxidation products• Long-range transport of reactive nitrogen • Coupled gas-aerosol processes • Evolution of aerosol radiative and microphysical

properties• Regional surface-atmosphere interactionsPartners:• Agencies: NSF, DOE, NASA, Mexican govt.• Universities: 43 (29 US)• About 300 non-Mexican and 100 Mexican

participantsTools:• NCAR C-130 and 5 other aircraft• 3 ground-based supersites in and near Mexico City• Mobile surface laboratories• Satellite observations and numerical simulations

Climate

A Warming World…

Climate Forcing

Atmosphere Ocean

Coupler

Sea IceLand

C/NCycle

Dyn.Veg.

Ecosystem& BGCGas chem. Prognostic

AerosolsUpperAtm.

ESSL /ESSL /

LandIce

Extensions to physical climate system to treat forcings more realistically

Need for High Resolution

NCAR Models can reproduce past climates

NCAR

The GLOBAL N CYCLE

Putting the pieces together:

The GLOBAL C CYCLE

Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaftcarrying water to ice sheet base.

Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

Surprises in store?

Surface Melt on Greenland

CCSM3 Projections of Degradation of Near-Surface Permafrost

Lawrence and Slater, 2005

Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice

ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean

• Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease

• Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years.

• Relevant factors:• Ice thinning• Arctic heat transport• Albedo feedback

• Winter maximum shows smaller, gradual decreases

“Abrupt”transition

Simulation of Future Climate

1. Ocean chemistry is changing to a state that has not occurred for millions of years

2. Shell-building in marine organisms will slow down

3. Reef-building will decrease, stop, or reverse

4. Fundamental changes will occur in marine ecosystems

Implications of Ocean Acidification

for Marine Life

Operational Implementation

Ensemble Predictions

Regional Environments

Decision Tools

Integrating research model and data into end-use knowledge systems

Weather/Climate Data Assimilation Models

Reliable Power Delivery

Solar-Terrestrial Relations

Ozo

ne (D

obso

n U

nits

)

NCC

A1B

1980 2030 2050

Global Average Total Ozone Column

Ozone Recovery in the 21st Century

Physics-Based Predictive Model of Solar Cycle Amplitudes

Observed cycles

! Model incorporates poloidal, toroidal magnetic fields and meridionalcirculation

! Cycle 24 will be 30-50% bigger than cycle 23

(Dikpati, de Toma & Gilman, 2006, GRL, in press)

Predicted cyclesQuickTime™ and a

Microsoft Video 1 decompressorare needed to see this picture.

Facility Highlights

State-of-the-art chemistry laboratoryAccess Grids

Office and meeting space

Our Progress – Investment in ScienceOur Progress – Investment in Science

Computing

Modern Climate Model Simulations

NCAR’s Bluesky Supercomputer:• 1600 Processors• Peak speed: 8.3 Teraflops

Characteristics of NCAR Model:

• ~1 quadrillion operations/simulated year

• UN IPCC ~10,800 years simulated

• Rate of simulation: 3.5 sim. years/day

• Output: 10 GB/simulated year

• Data volume for IPCC: ~110 TB (~200,000 Data CDs)

• Development effort: ~1 person-century

Estimated Sustained TFLOPs at NCAR

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raFL

OPs

ICESS (IBM P5+/P6)

IBM p5-575/HPS(bluevista)

IBM Opteron/Linux(pegasus)

IBM Opteron/Linux(lightning)

IBM POWER4Federation (thunder)

IBM POWER4 Colony(bluesky)

IBM POWER4(bluedawn)

SGI Origin3800/128

IBM POWER3(blackforest)

IBM POWER3(babyblue)

ARCS Phase 4

blueskyblackforest

ARCS Phase 3

ARCS Phase 2

ARCS Phase 1

Linuxblackforest(WH-1)

blackforest(WH-2/NH-2)

bluevista

ICESS

POWER5+

POWER6

Board Presentation, October 2006

The TeraGrid is a facility that integrates computational, information, and analysis resources at the San Diego Supercomputer Center, the Texas Advanced Computing Center, the University of Chicago / Argonne National Laboratory, the National Center for Supercomputing Applications, Purdue University, Indiana University, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Capability Computing - 2009

HIAPER

HIAPER software and displays

$25 B in new satellite missions 2001-2007

Aqua

Terra

TRMM

SORCE

SeaWiFS

Aura

Meteor/SAGE

GRACE

ICESat

Cloudsat

Jason

CALIPSO

GIFTSTOPEX

Landsat

NOAA/POES

COSMIC

Education

5th NCAR Undergraduate Leadership Workshop

June 19-23Gifted college juniors are

nominated by faculty and convene in Boulder for 5 days, co-sponsored by universities and NCAR

Goals for students:• Gain knowledge of state-of-the-art multi-

disciplinary research, facilities, models, & technology developed and utilized at NCAR and NOAA

• Meet scientists who describe their research, career paths, and challenges encountered along the way

• Study models of leadership and consider importance of leadership in the sciences

• Establish a network of student peers from leading programs in the geosciences

http://www.ucar.edu/educ_outreach/ulw/http://www.ucar.edu/educ_outreach/ulw/

20 students from 20 UCAR universities

ASP Graduate Visitor ProgramEnhancing NCAR partnerships with other public and private

institutions

• New program in 2006• Funds graduate student

visits to NCAR for 3-12 months in order to conduct research in pursuit of their thesis

• Funding also available for advisor visit

• NCAR scientist applies on behalf of student and thesis advisor

• Received 24 applications. 19 Funded with 13 advisor visits

Graduate visitors and postdocs hiking during the ASP fellows’ social in August 2006.

Goal: To foster global collaborations among young scientists on integrative research to better understand the role of humans in perturbing biogeochemistry and climate.

First workshop in June, 2005 in Breckenridge, Colorado:52 participants from 17 countries, including India, Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Ghana, Nigeria, Argentina and Brazil•33 also attended CCSM workshop

•To meet at larger scientific meetings, e.g., AGU this year and another workshop in 2006

Funded by AIMES, NCAR-SERE, NCAR-ASP, NSF, MPI and participant organizations

International Postdoctoral Scientist Network for Earth Systems Science

Summary:The Challenge of Simulating the Global

Earth System

Atmosphere Hydrosphere Cryosphere Biosphere

• The geosciences community is poised for petascale capabilities• A balanced system is needed (cycles, software, data, networks, etc.)• The system must address capability and capacity computing• The societal and national need for such a system is growing