The Middle East Since 1979

Kevin J. Benoy

Opposition to the Egyptian-Israeli Peace

• Arab extremists within and outside Egypt were appalled by Sadat’s peace with Israel.

• The headquarters of the Arab League were pulled out of Cairo and moved to Tunis.

• All Arab states except the Sudan and Morocco condemned the Treaty – though Jordan acted more realistically than they sounded.

• Israel seemed to be going against the spirit of the accords.– In planting new Jewish

settlements on the West Bank.

– In moving the national capital from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

– In annexing the Golan Heights in 1981.

Opposition to the Egyptian-Israeli Peace

• When Sadat gave sanctuary to the deposed Shah of Iran, he pleased his American sponsors but infuriated Moslem fundamentalists.

• His government was also accurse of corruption.

• In the end, the Egyptian leader paid for his various actions with his life.

• While watching a military parade, he was gunned down by some of the participants.

Opposition to the Egyptian-Israeli Peace

• Sadat was succeeded by Hosni Mubarak.

• The new Egyptian leader continued to pursue the same policies – dogged by many of the same criticisms as his predecessor.

• Opposition to the Egyptian government ran deep in Egypt, but the country’s military leaders kept a firm lid on things for decades to come.

Opposition to the Egyptian-Israeli Peace

Lebanon• After ejection from Jordan,

the PLO moved its operational headquarters to Lebanon.

• Its arrival upset the delicate racial and religious balance in the country.

• Various Moslem groups competed with Christians and Palestinians for control of parts of the country, with a weak government trying to prevent the country from falling apart.

Lebanon• In 1975 fighting broke out

between leftist Moslems and the right wing Christian Phalange.

• Cease fires were brokered but didn’t stick.

• In 1976 the Syrians intervened to restore order, but they came into conflict with the PLO as they did so.

Lebanon• In 1978, the Israelis

launched a full-scale invasion of Lebanon, hoping to cripple the PLO.

• They occupied all of the country south of the Litani River, not withdrawing until after the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon convinced them to hand things over to the right-wing Christian militias and leave.

Lebanon

• Peace did not return.• Israel effectively

partitioned the country by encouraging the establishment of an “Independent Free Lebanon” in the South.

• The Syrians occupied the North-East, including the important Baka’a Valley.

Lebanon• In 1982 the Israelis returned in force.• This time their goal was to destroy the

PLO in Lebanon.• 6,000 PLO fighters were trapped in

Beirut.• Eventually US intervention brought a

cease fire and the insertion f a Western multi-national peacekeeping force and the evacuation of PLO fighters from the city.

• In a violation of a cease fire agreement, Israeli forces and their Christian allies advanced in Beirut – more seriously, the advance included Christian militiamen entering and killing defenceless Palestinian civilians in the Sabra and Shatila camps.

Lebanon• Israeli complicity in the

massacres was clear.• The Phalangist killers operated

with Israeli equipment, coordinating events with Israeli personelle.

• The night sky was illuminated with Israeli flares to assist the attack.

• Israel was aware of the actions but made no attempt to stop it.

• The international community held Israel indirectly responsible for the thousands of death and Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon was fired as a consequence.

Lebanon• Foreign forces withdrew, but

Lebanon’s problems persisted.• For a time, central government

ceased to exist as local private armies and militias competed for control of tiny fiefdoms.

• Sunni Moslems fought Shi’ites, Druzhe or Christians. Fundamentalists fought moderates. Syrian intervention was frequent while Israelis worked through the Phalange and others to eliminate the omnipresent anti-Israeli guerillas.

• The Israeli invasion led to chaos and the destruction of what had been one of the Middle East’s most prosperous Arab countries.

Lebanon• In Israel a debate was started

as many found it hard to justify what had happened.

• Many opposed the invasion, seeing it as indicative of a dangerous expansionist tendency.

• Many sensibly pointed out that the Lebanese situation was far too complex to solve through military action and that the invasion merely made political remedies even more difficult.

The First Gulf War• This conflict served to

remind us that it is possible for a Middle Eastern crisis not to be centered on Israel.

• Iraq’s 1990 gamble, the occupation of Kuwait, was, in retrospect, an incredibly foolish move.

• Mired in debt, Saddam Hussein tried to swallow the oil-rich sheikdom to make Iraq the world’s #2 oil producer.

The First Gulf War• The gamble failed when the USA

and other countries refused to accept the occupation.

• Kuwait appealed for help and help it received.

• The end of the Cold War gave the US considerable flexibility, since its European forces were free for redeployment.

• President Bush also collected many political debts as he patched together a coalition of Allied forces including Britain, France, Italy and Saudi Arabia, as well as a number of other Arab countries, including even old nemesis Syria and a number of other countries from around the world.

The First Gulf War• US military might and

Saudi petrodollars brought a huge military build-up in the area.

• Lack of opposition to the alliance at the UN resulted in international sanction for action.

• The Iraqis were isolated, with only Jordan and South Yemen sympathetic – but not willing to help.

The First Gulf War• There was no doubt

about the result.• A 2nd rank military power

fought a 1st rank one, with many allies.

• Iraq was soundly thrashed and even the unleashing of SCUD missiles against Israel, with the intention of splitting off America’s Arab allies, failed.

The First Gulf War• Iraq may have been on

the verge of having nuclear weapons at the time of the war, but it dared not use them.

• Hussein even held back from using chemical weapons in his SCUD attack on Israel.

• He must have been worried that Israel might employ its own nuclear arsenal in response.

The First Gulf War• After a prolonged bombing

campaign, the Allies finally launched their attack.

• It was an anti-climax as Iraqi forces scrambled to surrender.

• Hussein salvaged his best forces, the Republican Guard, and left his regular forces to face the brunt of the attack.

• In a war covered extensively by media, the largest operation remained cloaked in secrecy for months. As the Iraqis fled Kuwait, their vehicles were tracked and destroyed by Allied planes and attack helicopters. The outcome was gruesome and deemed unfit for Western cameras by the American military command.

The First Gulf War Aftermath• Kuwaiti independence was

restored.• Before leaving, Saddam

ordered that the Kuwaiti oil fields be set alight. It took months to put out the fires.

• The cease fire that ended the war left Iraq beaten, but with Saddam still in power.

• Rebellions set in motion by allied promises of help were brutally suppressed.

First Gulf War Aftermath• President George Bush

ended the war once his political ends were met.

• Iraq remained a troublesome country, but economic and military sanctions meant it posed little military threat to its neighbours.

• Saddam posed a much more significant threat to his internal opponents – both Shia Moslems and Kurds.

First Gulf War Aftermath• Though Israel played only

a passive role in the conflict – as a target for several SCUD missiles – its restraint was hugely important in holding the alliance together.

• The cost of this passivity was significant US military help – including Patriot anti-missile systems.

The First Intifada (1987-1993)• The plight of Palestinians

remains central to the ongoing Arab-Israeli struggle.

• In 1987, Palestinian emotions boiled over when an incident in which a Palestinian knifed an Israeli was followed by an Israeli military transporter running into a crowd, killing 4. Palestinians did not think it an accident.

The First Intifada (1987-1993)

• Civil disobedience – strikes, boycotts, and non-payment of taxes began, but so too did violent resistance.

• Stone throwing youths met live fire from the IDF (Israeli Defense Force).

• Over 1,000 Palestinians and 164 Israelis died.

The First Intifada (1987-1993)• Palestinian anger was a

reaction to the lack of attention given to their problems and to Israeli harshness – bulldozing of homes, settlements built in the West Bank, detentions, extra-judicial killings and the like.

• The lack of job opportunities for educated Palestinian youth was especially galling. Only 1/8 of Palestinians with degrees could get work related to their training.

Madrid Conference & Talks to 1993

• The First Gulf War created an atmosphere conducive to working for a real settlement.

• Israeli wartime restraint convinced many that they were interested in ending conflict.

• Starting at Madrid in 1991 – Palestinians and Israelis committed to making the necessary effort.

Oslo Accords• Secret talks between Israel

and the PLO finally bore fruit.• A framework for future talks

toward a general settlement was agreed.

• The IDF would withdraw from much of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, allowing for the formation of a Palestinian state, to be phased in several stages.

• The PLO would renounce violence.

The Oslo Accords

• Israel’s right-wingers rejected the agreement.

• The Left supported it.• It passed in the Knesset by

61-50, with 8 abstentions.• The Palestinians also split.

Fatah (who negotiated it) supported it, but Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine rejected it, as they rejected Israel’s right to exist.

The Oslo Accords

• Mutual distrust was a problem.

• Israel expected it to end attacks by Palestinians – but Fatah could not enforce this.

• Arabs expected Jewish building in the West Bank to end, but although no new settlements were added, there was considerable expansion of existing ones.

The Oslo Accords

• In 2001 Benjammin Netanyahu was caught on camera stating that he interpreted the agreement to include Israeli security forces continuing to operate throughout the West Bank – clearly not what the Palestinians believed.

Cave of the Patriarchs Massacre

• The Cave of the Patriarchs is a site holy to Moslems and Jews, with each worshipping in a separate area.

• On February 25, 1994, Baruch Goldstein, an American born Jew and member of the radical orthodox Kach group, entered the cave dressed in military fatigues and carrying a gun.

Cave of the Patriarchs Massacre

• Goldstein, who had previously desecrated the Moslem area by pouring acid on its carpets, now blocked the exit and fired into the praying crowd, killing 29 and wounding 125 before being overwhelmed and killed by the survivors. Palestinians claimed that 3 Israeli guards also opened fire.

Reaction to the Massacre• An overwhelming majority of

Israeli Jews condemned the massacre, but Arab anger grew as many felt the inquiry was whitewashing things by blaming Baruch alone – how could one man do such damage alone?

• Hamas set off the first successful suicide bombing in Israel itself after the event and rioting occurred widely and resulting in Arab and Jewish deaths.

Reaction to the Massacre

• From 1996 to 1999, Netanyahu declared a tit-for-tat policy of hard retaliation for any attacks on Jews.

• Agreements with Palestinians were made – but only if Israeli security was guaranteed.

Camp David Meeting, 2000

• Bill Clinton hosted a meeting where Ehud Bahrak offered 95% of West Bank territory, all of Gaza and jurisdiction over East Jerusalem in return for 69 Jewish settlements on the West Bank.

• This was not enough for Arafat, who thought the Israeli offer insincere.

• He walked out.

2nd Intifada – the Al Aqsa Intifada2000-2005

• Rioting followed Ariel Sharon’s visiting Temple Mount.

• Arafat’s anger on leaving the Camp David talks was reflected in the streets.

• In the initial violence 47 Palestinians were killed and 1885 wounded. 5 Israelis died.

The 2nd Intifada

• Horrific events angered both sides in October, 2000.

• Israeli troops used both rubber bullets and live ammunition against Palestinian rock-throwing teens.

The 2nd Intifada• On October 12, two Israeli

reservists entered Ramallah and sought refuge in the police station after facing hostile Palestinians.

• Rumours spread that they were undercover Israeli agents.

• A mob stormed the police building and the men were beaten, stabbed and disembowelled.

• The killings were filmed by an Italian TV crew and broadcast to the world.

The 2nd Intifada

• One atrocity after another was committed – each an act of retaliation in a never ending circle of violence.

• The violence did not subside until late 2004 or even 2005.

• New Palestinian leader Mohammed Abbas pledged to end Arab violence.

• Israeli leader Sharon agreed to free 900 Palestinian prisoners.

Road Map for Peace• The US, the European Union,

Russia and the UN outlined principles in 2002-03 that might serve as a framework to end the conflict.

• It involved the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.

• The PLO would have to control Arab violence against Jews and Israel would have to dismantle West Bank settlements.

• To this day, neither have managed to do so

Road Map for Peace• Compounding the problem has

been the Palestinian schism.• Fatah won elections in the West

Bank, but in Gaza the more radical Hamas won control.

• There are, effectively, two Palestinian areas that oppose each other.

• Both are often in conflict with the IDF – especially in Gaza, from where Palestinian rocket attacks on Israel are launched – resulting in Israeli retaliation – in the bulldozing of suspected terrorist homes and in retaliatory bombing.

Prospects for the Future

• The Israeli-Palestinian dispute must be resolved if there is to be peace in the Middle East.

• The framework for peace – the two state solution – is in place.

• However, both sides need to work harder to make peace stick – and both need to honour their word when agreements are met.

Prospects for the Future

• Renewed war at the state level is not an option.

• Israel is a nuclear armed state, with a delivery system capable of hitting any potential adversary.

• Only a negotiated settlement can eliminate the potential for Armageddon.

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