the mexican economy
DESCRIPTION
The Mexican Economy. Jorge G. Gonzalez Trinity University. Recent Economic and Political Events. U.S. slow growth and financial upheaval Domestic sources of growth Calderón’s victories in Congress Pension Reform Fiscal Reform Oil reform and AMLO Mexico – U.S. relationship. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Jorge G. Gonzalez
Trinity University
The Mexican The Mexican EconomyEconomy
Recent Economic and Recent Economic and Political EventsPolitical Events
►U.S. slow growth and financial upheavalU.S. slow growth and financial upheaval►Domestic sources of growthDomestic sources of growth►Calderón’s victories in CongressCalderón’s victories in Congress
Pension ReformPension Reform Fiscal ReformFiscal Reform
►Oil reform and AMLOOil reform and AMLO►Mexico – U.S. relationshipMexico – U.S. relationship
The Mexican EconomyThe Mexican Economy
►North American business cycleNorth American business cycle
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
U.S. Mexico
Industrial Production Industrial Production IndexIndex
(January 2000 = 100)(January 2000 = 100)
Source: Banco de México and FED www.banxico.org.mx; www.federalreserve.gov
The Mexican EconomyThe Mexican Economy
►North American business cycleNorth American business cycle►GDP growthGDP growth
Real GDPReal GDP% yearly change% yearly change
Source: INEGI www.inegi.gob.mx
-10
-5
0
5
10
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
The Mexican EconomyThe Mexican Economy
►North American business cycleNorth American business cycle►GDP growthGDP growth►Foreign direct investmentForeign direct investment
Foreign Direct Foreign Direct InvestmentInvestmentBillions of DollarsBillions of Dollars
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
2.64.84.4 4.4
11.09.5 9.2
12.812.713.7
18.0
29.5
23.0
16.6
22.920.8
19.2
23.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
DEM +
NAFTA
The Mexican EconomyThe Mexican Economy
►North American business cycleNorth American business cycle►GDP growthGDP growth►Foreign direct investmentForeign direct investment►Super Peso and foreign sectorSuper Peso and foreign sector
Exchange RateExchange RatePesos per U.S. DollarPesos per U.S. Dollar
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
456789
101112
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Exchange RateExchange RatePesos per U.S. DollarPesos per U.S. Dollar
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
456789
101112
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Inflation Differential vs. Inflation Differential vs. Exchange RateExchange Rate
Inflation
Exchange Rate
321
225
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
94 - I 95 - I 96 - I 97 - I 98 - I 99 - I 00 - I 01 - I 02 - I 03 - I 04 - I 05 - I 06 - I 07 - I
Merchandise TradeMerchandise TradeBillions of DollarsBillions of Dollars
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
Imports
Exports
0
10
20
30
40
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Perc
ent
Merchandise ExportsMerchandise ExportsAnnual Growth RateAnnual Growth Rate
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
Europe
U.S.
0
10
20
30
40
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Perc
ent
Merchandise ImportsMerchandise ImportsAnnual Growth RateAnnual Growth Rate
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
Europe
U.S.
Family RemittancesFamily RemittancesBillions of DollarsBillions of Dollars
4.2 4.9 5.6 5.9 6.68.9 9.8
13.716.7
20.3
23.724.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
Family RemittancesFamily RemittancesBillions of DollarsBillions of Dollars
4.2 4.9 5.6 5.9 6.68.9 9.8
13.716.7
20.3
23.724.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
The Mexican EconomyThe Mexican Economy
►North American business cycleNorth American business cycle►GDP growthGDP growth►Foreign direct investmentForeign direct investment►Super Peso and foreign sectorSuper Peso and foreign sector►Disciplined fiscal policyDisciplined fiscal policy
0.2 0.0 0.0
-0.7
-1.1-1.0 -1.0
-0.7
-1.1
-0.6
-0.2 -0.1
0.1 0.0
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Government BalanceGovernment BalanceBalance / GDPBalance / GDP
Source: SHCP www.shcp.gob.mx
The Mexican EconomyThe Mexican Economy
►North American business cycleNorth American business cycle►GDP growthGDP growth►Foreign direct investmentForeign direct investment►Super Peso and foreign sectorSuper Peso and foreign sector►Disciplined fiscal policyDisciplined fiscal policy►Price stabilityPrice stability
InflationInflation
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
7.05
51.97
27.70
15.7218.61
12.328.96
4.40 5.703.98 5.19
3.33 4.05 3.76
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
The Mexican EconomyThe Mexican Economy
►North American business cycleNorth American business cycle►GDP growthGDP growth►Foreign direct investmentForeign direct investment►Super Peso and foreign sectorSuper Peso and foreign sector►Disciplined fiscal policyDisciplined fiscal policy►Price stabilityPrice stability
►War on povertyWar on poverty►Rule of lawRule of law►Energy sector and labor lawsEnergy sector and labor laws►Domestic antitrust and competitionDomestic antitrust and competition►Mexico – U.S. relationshipMexico – U.S. relationship
Agenda for President Agenda for President Calderón Calderón
