the measure of opportunity - tbf/media/tbforg...chances of graduating college by 8th grade math naep...
TRANSCRIPT
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T h e M e a s u r e o f O p p o r t u n i t y
A s p e c i a l U n d e r s t a n d i n g B o s t o n S e r i e s o n
I n e q u a l i t y, P r o s p e r i t y, W e l l - B e i n g &
B o s t o n ’ s F u t u r e M o b i l i t y
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-$80,000
$20,000
$120,000
$220,000
$320,000
$420,000
LowestQuintile
SecondQuintile
ThirdQuintile
FourthQuintile
HighestQuintile
Top 5Percent
M e d i a n H o u s e h o l d I n c o m e b y Q u i n t i l e 2 0 0 0
Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey
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M e d i a n H o u s e h o l d I n c o m e b y Q u i n t i l e 2 0 0 0 v 2 0 1 3
-$80,000
$20,000
$120,000
$220,000
$320,000
$420,000
LowestQuintile
SecondQuintile
ThirdQuintile
FourthQuintile
HighestQuintile
Top 5Percent
+ 42%
+ 14%
Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Su
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Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $149,999
$150,000 or more
C h a n g e i n H o u s e h o l d s b y I n c o m e 2 0 0 8 - 2 0 1 3
Source: 2008 – 2013 American Community Survey
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AGGREGATE HOUSEHOLD INCOME
$47b
$725m Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 year estimates
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C A N A C I T Y E X T E N D T H E B E N E F I T S O F
E C O N O M I C S U C C E S S T O A L L O F I T S
R E S I D E N T S & N E I G H B O R H O O D S ?
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C A N I T R E TA I N A V I B R A N T M I X O F I N C O M E , E T H N I C & A G E D I V E R S I T Y E V E N
A S I T AT T R A C T S H I G H E R I N C O M E R E S I D E N T S ?
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C A N I T C R E AT E P AT H W AY S T O E D U C AT I O N A L & E C O N O M I C S U C C E S S
F O R A L L I T S Y O U N G P E O P L E ?
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W H A T W I L L I T T A K E T O M A K E
B O S T O N A M E R I C A ’ S M O S T
U P W A R D L Y M O B I L E C I T Y ?
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O P P O R T U N I T Y
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P R O S P E R I T Y
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W E L L - B E I N G
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S O C I A L & E C O N O M I C M O B I L I T Y
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W H A T W E K N O W
S O C I A L & E C O N O M I C M O B I L I T Y
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100%
67% 71% 59%
68% 64%
100%
45% 49%
31% 44% 43%
Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40
Advantaged at Birth
Disadvantaged at Birth
O P P O R T U N I T Y A T B I R T H
I M P A C T S
S U C C E S S A T A D U L T H O O D
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100%
67% 71% 59%
68% 64%
100%
45% 49%
31% 44% 43%
Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40
Advantaged at Birth
Disadvantaged at Birth
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100%
67% 71% 59%
68% 64%
100%
45% 49%
31% 44% 43%
Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40
Advantaged at Birth
Disadvantaged at Birth
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100%
67% 71% 59%
68% 64%
100%
45% 49%
31% 44% 43%
Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40
Advantaged at Birth
Disadvantaged at Birth
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100%
67% 71% 59%
68% 64%
100%
45% 49%
31% 44% 43%
Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40
Advantaged at Birth
Disadvantaged at Birth
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100%
67% 71% 59%
68% 64%
100%
45% 49%
31% 44% 43%
Birth Age 5 Age 11 Age 19 Age 29 Age 40
Advantaged at Birth
Disadvantaged at Birth
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GREATER MOBILITY
LESS MOBILITY
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Racial Segregation
Isolated Poverty Commute Times
Proximity to High Quality Schools
Teen Labor Force Participation
Social Capital
Density of Single Parent Households
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Suffolk County: -0.31% every year
Middlesex County: +0.39% every year
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2015 A BABY IS BORN IN BOSTON
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2020 TURNS FIVE YEARS OLD
2027 ENTERS 7 TH GRADE
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2033 GRADUATES HIGH SCHOOL
2038 COMPLETES COLLEGE
2039 STARTS A CAREER PATH
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2055 ACHIEVES THE AMERICAN DREAM
2048 HAS A CHILD
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EARLY OPPORTUNITY EDUCATION & SKILLS
JOBS & EMPLOYMENT INEQUALITY &
PLACES OF OPPORTUNITY INCOME, WEALTH, ASSETS
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K E Y I N D I C AT O R : H e a l t h y B i r t h W e i g h t
Percent of Babies Born at Low Birth Weight Boston 2000 - 2013
2000 8.8% 2013
8.4%
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E a r l y E d u c a t i o n O p p o r t u n i t y : K E Y I N D I C AT O R
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Between0 and 49
Between50 and 99
Between100 and
199
Between200 and
299
Between300 and
399
Between400 and
499
500 Plus
Percent of 3 and 4 year-olds enrolled in school Boston 2000 - 2014
Public
Private
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W H AT M AT T E R S I N T H E E D U C AT I O N T O E M P L O Y M E N T
P I P E L I N E ?
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$472
$651
$727
$777
$1,108
$1,329
$1,714
$1,623
11.0%
7.5%
7.0%
5.4%
4.0%
3.4%
2.3%
2.2% PhD
Professional
Masters
Bachelors
Associates
Some College
High School
No High School
All Workers Median Weekly Earnings $827 6.1% Unemployment Rate
Unemployment and Median Earnings by Educational Attainment
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
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Adult Income Quintile of Children Born at the Bottom Income Quintile by College Degree
45%
16%
23%
22%
18%
21%
9%
22%
5% 19%
No Degree With Degree
Top 20%
Fourth 20%
Middle 20%
Second 20%
Bottom 20%
Source: Brookings Institute Analysis of PSID
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Adult Income Quintile of Children Born at the Bottom Income Quintile by College Degree
45%
16%
No Degree With Degree
Top 20%
Fourth 20%
Middle 20%
Second 20%
Bottom 20%
Source: Brookings Institute Analysis of PSID
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Adult Income Quintile of Children Born at the Bottom Income Quintile by College Degree
5% 19%
No Degree With Degree
Top 20%
Fourth 20%
Middle 20%
Second 20%
Bottom 20%
Source: Brookings Institute Analysis of PSID
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-20%
-13%
7%
13%
-12%
3%
16%
21%
Men
Women
Change in Real Earnings by Educational Attainment 1990 - 2013
Source: Brookings Institute, Hamilton Project, Occupational Employment Statistics
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$835 $1,315
$3,536
$8,872
1972 - 73 1983 - 84 1994 - 95 2005 - 06
Spending on Educational Enrichment by Parent’s Income
Source: “Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis” [Robert D. Putnam)
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3% 8%
29% 30%
51%
74%
Lowest Scores Middle Scores Highest Scores
Chances of Graduating College by 8th Grade Math NAEP Scores
Source: “Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis” [Robert D. Putnam)
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11%
20%
25%
38%
53%
Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top
Percent of Children with a College Degree by Parents’ Income Quintile 2005
Total: 29%
Source: Brookings Institute Analysis of PSID
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College Attendance Rates for Children of Parents in the Bottom 25%
Source: Raj Chetty, Equality of Opportunity Project
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6.7
6.2
6.1
5.7
5.5
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
4.5
Washington DC
San Francisco
New York
Boston
Los Angeles
Dallas
Philadelphia
Detroit
Chicago
Seattle
Miami
Income Inequality / Economic Prosperity
Income Ratio of 90th to 10th percentile
Source: 2014 Occupational Employment Statistics, Metropolitan Statistical Areas
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6.7
6.2
6.1
5.7
5.5
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
4.5
Washington DC
San Francisco
New York
Boston
Los Angeles
Dallas
Philadelphia
Detroit
Chicago
Seattle
Miami
55.1%
53.0%
44.7%
52.6%
39.2%
39.3%
42.1%
38.2%
43.2%
48.9%
38.5%
Income Inequality / Economic Prosperity
Income Ratio of 90th to 10th percentile % Associate’s or Higher
Source: 2014 Occupational Employment Statistics, Metropolitan Statistical Areas
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6.7
6.2
6.1
5.7
5.5
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
4.5
Washington DC
San Francisco
New York
Boston
Los Angeles
Dallas
Philadelphia
Detroit
Chicago
Seattle
Miami
0.62
0.56
0.53
0.67
0.52
0.60
0.56
0.54
0.58
0.60
0.48
Income Inequality / Economic Prosperity
Income Ratio of 90th to 10th percentile Employment to Population Ratio
Source: 2014 Occupational Employment Statistics, Metropolitan Statistical Areas
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6.7
6.2
6.1
5.7
5.5
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
4.5
Washington DC
San Francisco
New York
Boston
Los Angeles
Dallas
Philadelphia
Detroit
Chicago
Seattle
Miami
0.62
0.56
0.53
0.67
0.52
0.60
0.56
0.54
0.58
0.60
0.48
Income Inequality / Economic Prosperity
Income Ratio of 90th to 10th percentile Employment to Population Ratio – 16 to 24 year olds
Source: 2014 Occupational Employment Statistics, Metropolitan Statistical Areas
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E D U C AT I O N & E M P L OY M E N T
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E D U C AT I O N & S K I L L S
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1990 2000 2010 2014
35%
SHARE OF ADULTS WITH AN ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE OR HIGHER
E D U C AT I O N & S K I L L S – K e y I n d i c a t o r
40.4% 48.9% 51.3%
Source: 1990, 2000 Decennial Census; 2010, 2014 American Community Survet
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E D U C AT I O N & S K I L L S
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Change in MCAS Proficiency Rates 2001 - 2014
36% 37%
76%
64%
30%
20%
31% 28%
3rd grade reading 8th grade math 10th grade ELA 10th grade math
Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary & Secondary Education
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Change in MCAS Proficiency Rates 2001 - 2014
36% 37%
76%
64%
30%
20%
31% 28%
3rd grade reading 8th grade math 10th grade ELA 10th grade math
Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary & Secondary Education
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Change in MCAS Proficiency Rates 2001 - 2014
36% 37%
76%
64%
30%
20%
31% 28%
3rd grade reading 8th grade math 10th grade ELA 10th grade math
Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary & Secondary Education
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BPS Four Year Graduation Rate by Race/Ethnicity 2006 & 2013
59.8
65.8
72.3
87.6
Latino
African American
White
Asian
50.6
55.7
70.6
82.7
Class of 2013 Class of 2004
Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary & Secondary Education
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5.7%
4.5%
1.8%
4.5%
8.0%
7.8%
6.5%
9.0%
7.9%
6.5%
7.4%
7.6%
5.8%
8.9%
7.1%
6.2%
8.4%
8.8%
3.0%
Allston
Back Bay / Kenmore
Boston Central
Brighton
Charlestown
Codman Square
East Boston
Fields Corner
Grove Hall
Hyde Park
Jamaica Plain
Mattapan
Roslindale
Roxbury
Roxbury Crossing
South Boston
South End
Uphams Corner
West Roxbury
BPS Annual Dropout Rate by Neighborhood 2008
Source: Boston Public Schools
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BPS Annual Dropout Rate by Neighborhood 2014
3.2%
2.7%
2.4%
3.0%
3.5%
4.1%
3.5%
4.7%
4.2%
2.4%
3.8%
4.5%
3.1%
5.5%
4.8%
6.7%
3.5%
3.7%
0.9%
Allston
Back Bay / Kenmore
Boston Central
Brighton
Charlestown
Codman Square
East Boston
Fields Corner
Grove Hall
Hyde Park
Jamaica Plain
Mattapan
Roslindale
Roxbury
Roxbury Crossing
South Boston
South End
Uphams Corner
West Roxbury
Source: Boston Public Schools
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60% 58%
84%
77%
50% 44%
68% 65%
African American Latino White Asian
BPS Graduates College Enrollment Rates 2004 - 2012
Class of 2012
Class of 2004
Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary & Secondary Education
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37% 39%
41% 45%
56%
Boston Public School Graduates’ College Completion Classes of 2000 - 2007
Class of 2000
Class of 2007
Source: Success Boston
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J O B S & E M P L OY M E N T
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3.7
8.4
4.3
J O B S & E M P L OY M E N T – K e y I n d i c a t o r
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
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J O B S & E M P L OY E N T
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44% 55% 60%
67% 69% 69%
13%
17% 18%
17% 18% 21% 34%
28% 22%
16% 13% 10%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2014
Blue-Collar
Service
White-Collar
Labor Market by Occupation
Source: 1960 – 2000 Decennial Census; 2010, 2014 American Community Survey
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200,000.00
220,000.00
240,000.00
260,000.00
280,000.00
300,000.00
320,000.00
340,000.00
360,000.00
Total Employment 2000 - 2015
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
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Change in Employment by Industry 2001 – Q1 2015
-58%
-31%
-29%
-17%
-14%
-13%
3%
11%
29%
35%
Manufacturing
Construction
Information
Public Administration
Financial Activities
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Total Employment: +3%
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor & Workforce Development ES202
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-9.4% -9.0% -8.7%
-4.5% -0.8%
0.8% 1.2% 1.7% 2.6%
4.7% 8.2%
10.5% 16.6%
20.3% 20.5% 20.9% 21.9%
23.6% 26.4%
30.8% 50.4%
Office and administrative supportConstruction and extraction
ProductionInstallation, maintenance, and repairTransportation and material moving
Architecture and engineeringBuilding and grounds cleaning and maintenance
LegalSales and related
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and mediaEducation, training, and library
Protective serviceFood preparation and serving related
Life, physical, and social scienceHealthcare practitioners and technical
ManagementHealthcare support
Computer and mathematicalBusiness and financial operations
Community and social servicesPersonal care and service
Change in Employment by Occupation 2005 - 2014
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics Boston MSA
-
Work Experience by Weekly Hours Worked
54.9% 56.7%
12.4% 16.3%
2.9%
4.9%
29.8% 22.1%
2000 2014
Did not Work
1 to 14 Hours
15 to 34 Hours
35 Hours or more
Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey
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Work Experience by Weekly Hours Worked
29.8% 22.1%
2000 2014
Did not Work
1 to 14 Hours
15 to 34 Hours
35 Hours or more
Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey
-
12,706
2,084
8,849
-2,866
-5,781
Less than $718
$718 to $1,436
$1,436 to $2,154
$2,154 to $2,872
$2,872 or more
Change in Employment by Average Weekly Wages 2008 & 2014
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor & Workforce Development ES202
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Median Annual Earnings, Fast-Growing Occupations 2014
$26,180
$43,610
$73,820
$92,330
Personal Care andService
Community andSocial Service
Business andFinancial Operations
Computer andMathematical
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics Boston MSA
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Median Annual Earnings at 10th & 90th Percentile 2014
$18,380 $25,390
$42,760
$52,380 $48,490
$77,610
$133,070
$147,600
Personal Care andService
Community and SocialService
Business and FinancialOperations
Computer andMathematical
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics Boston MSA
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I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y
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I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y Adults with and Associate’s Degree or Higher by Race/Ethnicity 2000 & 2014
14.4%
19.4% 22.4%
25.9%
40.7%
53.1%
21.8% 23.6% 27.9%
29.9%
49.0%
71.1%
2000
2014
African American Asian Some Other
Two or More
Latino/ Hispanic
White Non-Latino
Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey
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$40,209 $40,154
$33,181 $37,630
$33,962
$56,406
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y Median Earnings for Full Time Workers 2000 & 2014
African American Asian Some Other
Two or More
Latino/ Hispanic
White Non-Latino
All 2000: $48,765
Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey
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$41,700
$51,876
$36,268 $38,222 $36,722
$66,490
$40,209 $40,154
$33,181 $37,630
$33,962
$56,406
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y Median Earnings for Full Time Workers 2000 & 2014
African American Asian Some Other
Two or More
Latino/ Hispanic
White Non-Latino
All 2014: $55,864
Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey
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I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y Median Earnings for Full Time Workers – gender gap 2014
$22,271
$31,675 $36,099
$61,191
$74,934
Less than highschool graduate
High schoolgraduate (includes
equivalency)
Some college orassociate's degree
Bachelor's degree Graduate orprofessional degree
$17,629 $22,777
$34,881
$51,878
$60,579
Less than highschool graduate
High schoolgraduate (includes
equivalency)
Some college orassociate's degree
Bachelor's degree Graduate orprofessional degree
Source: 2014 American Community Survey
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16.2%
12.2%
9.8%
3.2%
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y Unemployment by Educational Attainment 2000 & 2014
Less than High School High School
Associate’s Degree
Bachelor’s Degree Or Higher
-
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y Unemployment by Educational Attainment 2000 & 2014
18.6% 17.8%
16.8%
4.1%
16.2%
12.2%
9.8%
3.2%
Less than High School High School
Associate’s Degree
Bachelor’s Degree Or Higher
-
28.8% 20.3%
9.8%
25.6%
17.7%
8.7%
45.7%
62.0%
81.5%
Less than HS HS or Some College AA or Higher
200% or Higher
Near Poor
In Poverty
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y Poverty & Economic Security by Educational Attainment 2000
Source: 2000 Decennial Census; Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey Public Use Micro Data
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32.2% 26.6%
10.2%
28.2%
18.5%
8.0%
39.6%
54.9%
81.8%
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y
28.8% 20.3%
9.8%
25.6%
17.7%
8.7%
45.7%
62.0%
81.5%
Less than HS HS or Some College AA or Higher
200% or Higher
Near Poor
In Poverty
Poverty & Economic Security by Educational Attainment 2000 & 2014
Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey Public Use Micro Data
-
28.8% 20.3%
9.8%
25.6%
17.7%
8.7%
45.7%
62.0%
81.5%
Less than HS HS or Some College AA or Higher
200% or Higher
Near Poor
In Poverty
32.2% 26.6%
10.2%
28.2%
18.5%
8.0%
39.6%
54.9%
81.8%
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y Poverty & Economic Security by Educational Attainment 2000 & 2014
Source: 2000 Decennial Census; 2014 American Community Survey Public Use Micro Data
-
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
Less than 20%
Greater than 80%
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y
Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 year estimates
-
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Less than 5%
Greater than 25%
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y
Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 year estimates
-
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Less than $25,000
Greater than $100,000
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y
Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 year estimates
-
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y
CHILD POVERTY
Less than 5%
Greater than 40% Source: American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 year estimates
-
Young Adult Labor Force Participation Rate 2005 - 2014
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y
43.7 41.7
73.8 68.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
20 to 24 year olds
16 to 19 year olds
Source: 2005 – 2014 American Community Survey
-
I N E Q U A L I T Y - O P P O RT U N I T Y
39.3
26.7
9.4 9.1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Young Adult Unemployment Rate 2005 - 2014
20 to 24 year olds
16 to 19 year olds
Source: 2005 – 2014 American Community Survey
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D A T A G A P S : adult education, workforce, longitudinal data, missing topics
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D A T A G A P S : adult education, workforce, longitudinal data, missing topics B A R R I E R S : cost of education, student debt, cliff effect, proximity to jobs
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D A T A G A P S : adult education, workforce, longitudinal data, missing topics B A R R I E R S : cost of education, student debt, cliff effect, proximity to jobs
A S S E T S : higher education, workforce training, public/private partnerships
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D A T A G A P S : adult education, workforce, longitudinal data, missing topics B A R R I E R S : cost of education, student debt, cliff effect, proximity to jobs
A S S E T S : higher education, workforce training, public/private partnerships
O N T H E H O R I Z O N : minimum wage, family leave, benefits
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O C T O B E R 2 8 : EDUCATION, SKILLS, JOBS & EMPLOYMENT
T h e M e a s u r e o f O p p o r t u n i t y
N O V E M B E R 1 9 : INCOME, INEQUALITY & NEIGHBORHOODS
tbf.org/opportunity
S E P T E M B E R 2 2 : BIERTH & EARLY CHILDRHOOD
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T h e M e a s u r e o f O p p o r t u n i t y
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