The main need of our officers is a knowledgeof the fundamental principles of tactics andhow to apply them. This knowledge is to begained not by studying rules, formulas, or‘normal schemes’ but by practice in solvingproblems. Such practice, combined withknowledge of human nature and commonsense, is what makes a tactician.

MG John F. Morrisonformer Instructor and Acting Commandant, USACGSC 1883-85, 1906-12

Problem Solving

Purpose

To review the Army’s problem-solving process in an effort toimprove a leader’s ability to makeeffective, timely decisions.

References

• FM 5-0, Army Planning and Orders Production, OCT 04

• Techniques of Structured Problem Solving, Arthur B.VanGundy, 1981, Van Nostrand Reinhold CompanyInc.

• Victims of Groupthink, Irving L. Janis, 1972, HoughtonMifflin Company Boston, p 9

• 52d ID & Ft. Riley Memo 25-50, 52d ID (M) StaffOfficers Guide, Feb 02

• Appendix 1, Lesson 1 “The Theory of ProblemSolving,” Feb 99

Outline• Introduction.

• Step 1, "Recognize and DefineProblem."

• Step 2, "Gathering Information.”

• Step 3, “List Solutions.”

• Step 4, "Testing Solutions.”

• Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting andImplementing Best Solution."

• AAR/Summary.

• Conclusion.

Problem-Solving in Practice

Identify problem

List facts and assumptions

Develop possible solutions

Research and collect data

Interpret dataEvaluate solutions

Statement of problem

Body facts that influence assumptions to fill gaps

Courses of action

Analysis

Comparison

Recommendation

The Decision Briefing

Prepare Study

The Staff StudyMDMP

Make/receive decision

Process1. Recognize & define the

problem

2. Gather information relative

to the problem

3. List possible solutions

4. Test possible solutions

5. Select the best solution

6. Implement the solution

Problem Solving MethodsWhat do they have in common?

Continuous refinement of problem,

data and solutions

throughout process

Recognize and Definethe Problem

• Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem."– Symptoms vs. problems

– Problem statement

• Step 2, "Gathering Information.”

• Step 3, “List Solutions."

• Step 4, "Testing Solutions."

• Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best Solution."

A Problem is . . .

• The difference between– What is happening and

– What you want to happen

• Defined as– Well structured

–Ill structured

– Medium structured

Most staff officersfind themselvesdealing withmedium structuredproblems

Recognize and Define theProblem

• Defines the scope–What is our endstate/goal?

• Stated as a question or infinitive:– “To determine . . .” or,

– “How to . . .”

• Includes who, what, when, where andwhy (as necessary)

• Find the root cause

Gathering Information

• Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem."

• Step 2, "Gathering Information.”– Facts– Assumptions– Gross Estimation– Information Sharing– Criteria Development– Determine Criteria PE

• Step 3, “List Solutions."

• Step 4, "Testing Solutions."

• Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best Solution."

Gather Information -Facts

– Known data

– Verifiable information

– Observed events, past orpresent

– Relate to all potentialsolutions (Address raw dataseparately)

– Bear on the problem

25

Gather Information -Assumptions

– Valid• Likely to be true• Based on facts

– Necessary• Essential for planning• Provide a bridge between the facts and what

you need to determine the best solution

– Stated in future or conditional tense (willor might)

– Must bear on the problem (you won’tmake them until you need them)

– Must apply to all potential solutions

The Household Motor Pool -Facts Assumptions

• Don’t want to drive a foreign car

• Have two kids

• Would like ability to transportfamily plus parents occasionally

• Would like to use vehicle for skitrips

• Have a boat that weighs 4,500pounds

• Bank has ~$16k in the rainy-dayfund

• Trade-in value of vehicle isroughly $8k

• Budget will allow $500/monthfor 36 months

• Current interest rates are 8-10%

• Is only interested in US vehicles

• Must have four seats; wouldprefer six or more seats

• Look at truck or SUV

• Will have approximately $24kfor down payment

• Total price should not exceed$40k

• Monetary information and rateswill remain constant

–What is my mission/endstate?

– Guidance• Who gave me the guidance (Cdr, staff, report)?

– Is it first hand or filtered?

– Be sure to attribute the information for later discussion.

• Does it constrain me?– Can I complete the mission (suitable)?

– Do I have sufficient resources (feasible)?

– Is the outcome worth the risks (acceptable)?

• Is it a preference or a requirement?

Criteria Development

Criteria - a standard on which a judgment or decision may bebased

• Define your solution’s limits– Screening Criteria

• Must be met

• Always Go/No Go

• Required absolutes

• Determine which solution is best– Evaluation Criteria

• Compare possible solutions

• “Like to have” vs “must have”

Linking toFacts and

Assumptionsresults in objectiveanalysis

Criteria Development(cont’d)

Screening Criteria

• What will eliminate (screen) possiblesolutions?

• Supported by facts (and/or assumptions)

• Screening criteria consist of . . .– Short, descriptive title

– Definition, including “must” or “must not”

Is it Suitable?

Is it Feasible? Is it Acceptable?

Is it Complete?

Is it Distinguishable?

• Short, descriptive Title

• Definition: based on facts/assumptions; describes howyou’re evaluating your options

• Unit of measure: usually dollars, miles, etc.; what is yourraw data?

• Benchmark: based on facts/assumptions; point at whichthe options are advantageous or disadvantageous

• Formula: defines how you use your benchmark; if optionis < or > BM, it is advantaged or disadvantaged (must beone or the other)

Elements of Evaluation Criteria

List Solutions

• Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem."

• Step 2, "Gathering Information.”

• Step 3, “List Solutions."

– Develop/Display Raw Data

• Step 4, "Testing Solutions."

• Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best Solution."

List Possible Solutions

• Have the facts/assumptions created any potential solutions?

• Do I need to further scope/narrow the potential solutions?

• Do I need assistance to determine additional potential solutions?

• Assemble Raw Data based on screeningAnd evaluation criteria

The Household Motor Pool Raw Data

Vehicle Origin Cost WarrantyFuel

EconyTowing

Cap SeatsTahoe US 36 3/36 17 6600 6Expedition US 41 3/36 16 6800 7Explorer US 35 3/36 20 4860 4Suburban US 41 3/36 17 7500 9Cadillac US 52 4/50 15 8200 8Land Cru. Foreign 52 3/36 16 6500 8Durango US 36 3/36 17 4500 6Outback Foreign 32 3/36 27 2000 5Hummer US 104 3/36 ? 5000 4

Test Solutions

• Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem."

• Step 2, "Gathering Information.”

• Step 3, “List Solutions."

• Step 4, "Testing Solutions."– Use of Screening Criteria

– Use of Evaluation Criteria

– Analysis of COAs

• Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and Implementing Best Solution."

Test Possible Solutions- Screening Criteria

Facts

• Don’t want to drive a foreign car

• Bank has ~$16k in the rainy-day fund

• Trade-in value of vehicle is roughly $8k

• Budget will allow $500/month for 36 months

• Current interest rates are 8-10%

Assumptions

• Is only interested in US vehicles

• Will have approximately $24k for down payment

• Total price should not exceed $40k

• Monetary information and rates will remain constant

Origin: Must be made in USA.

Cost: Price must not exceed $40k.

Screening Criteria

Screening Criteria

The Household Motor Pool Raw Data

Vehicle Origin Cost WarrantyFuel

EconyTowing

Cap SeatsTahoe US 36 3/36 17 6600 6Expedition US 41 3/36 16 6800 7Explorer US 35 3/36 20 4860 4Suburban US 41 3/36 17 7500 9Cadillac US 52 4/50 15 8200 8Land Cru. Foreign 52 3/36 16 6500 8Durango US 36 3/36 17 4500 6Outback Foreign 32 3/36 27 2000 5Hummer US 104 3/36 ? 5000 4

COST: Must not exceed $40K

ORIGIN: Must be made in the US

Test Possible Solutions -Evaluation Criteria

Short Title: Cost

Definition: The total cost of the vehicle

Unit of Measure: Dollars

Benchmark: $35,700 (average)

Formula: < $35,700 is an advantage; > $35,700 is a disadvantage; less is better

Test Possible Solutions- Analysis

• Look at each of your COAs in terms of advantages/disadvantages

• List both the raw data and the benchmarks

• Show analysis in terms of < or >

• Show all evaluation criteria, not just “most important”

• Show the decision-maker ALL advantages and disadvantages

Test Possible Solutions- Analysis of Tahoe

• Advantages– Towing -- 6,600 lbs (> 5,300 lbs)

– Seating -- 6 (> 6 seats)

• Disadvantages– Cost -- $36k (< $35.7k)

– Fuel Eff. -- 17 (> 18 MPG)

Select and ImplementThe Best Solution

• Step 1, "Recognize and Define Problem."

• Step 2, "Gathering Information.”

• Step 3, “List Solutions."

• Step 4, "Testing Solutions."

• Steps 5 and 6, "Selecting and ImplementingBest Solution."– Comparison

– Crosswalk Criteria to Facts/Assumptions

– Eliminate Unnecessary Information

Select the Best SolutionComparison

• Compare each course of action against the other

• Reorder (as necessary) evaluation criteria from most to least important

• Reorder (as necessary) potential solutions from best to worst

• Highlight the recommended solution and its raw data so it stands out as best

Select the Best Solution Comparison of COAs

> means better than

Evaluation Criteria

(Adv . Formula)

Cost(< $35.7k)

Fuel Economy(> 18 MPG)

Towing Capacity(> 5,300 lbs)

Explorer($35k)

Explorer(20 MPG)

Tahoe(17 MPG)

Tahoe($36k)

Explorer(4,860 lbs)

Tahoe(6,600 lbs)

Durango($36k)

Durango(17 MPG)

Durango(4,400 lbs)

> =

> =

>

>

Seats(> 6 seats)

Explorer(4 seats)

Tahoe(6 seats)

Durango(5 seats) >

>

Courses of Action(Raw Data)

The Decision Matrix

Implement the SolutionCrosswalk Criteria

Did you use all your facts?Facts

Assumptions Criteria

Did you make some assumptionsyou didn’t communicate?

Can you link all your

criteria back to your facts?

Implement the SolutionEliminate Unnecessary Information

“Vehicle doesn’t meet emissions standards”

Facts:

> 4 seatsSeats (more is better)

< $40k Cost (less is better)

> 4500 lbs towingCapacity (more is better)Fuel Economy

(more is better)

Criteria:Screening Evaluation

Assumptions:“Would like a new vehicle”

“Would like a year-end model”

Discussion:“Would like four/all-wheel drive”

“Would like to use vehicle for ski trips”

“Narrowed scope to new vehicles”“Narrowed scope to four/

all wheel drive vehicles”

Summary(1 of 2)

• Recognize & define the problem– Do you understand the scope?

• Nature and complexity

• Time involved

• Experience (group vs. individual)

• Gather information relative to the problem– Gather facts (attributable, verifiable)

– Make assumptions (what can I verify in time?)

• List possible solutions– Brainstorm

– Consider at least two

– Feasible, suitable, acceptable, distinguishable, complete

• Test possible solutions– Screening (absolute standards you must meet)

– Evaluation criteria (preferences/desired qualities based on

facts/assumptions)

• Select the best solution– Analysis (what are the advantages/disadvantages of the solutions?)

– Comparison (how do they stand up against other solutions?)

– What does your “gut” say about the solution?

• Implement the solution-make or recommend a

decision– Final check for errors

– Eliminate unnecessary info before presentation

Summary(2 of 2)

“Poor execution can render the most brilliant concept null and void, but the most magnificent execution can rarely offset the deadweight of a flawed concept.”

GEN W.E. Depuy , USA, Retired

Conclusion