The Kamloops The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy ProjectFuture Forest Strategy Project

An Adaptation StrategyAn Adaptation StrategyFor Climate ChangeFor Climate Change

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The Kamloops Future Forest Strategy Team… 2

Overview of the Kamloops TSA:

1. Four Major Licensees managing Approximately 2.7 million hectares.

2. Annual allowable timber harvest

– 2.7 million cubic metres

– Currently 4.3 million cubic metres to deal with pine beetle.

3. High degree of topographic and ecological diversity.

Barriere

Clearwater

Blue River

Cache Creek

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GOAL of the KFFS…

To Rationalize expectations and direction for future forest management…

…in the context of expected impacts of climate change.

And hopefully avoid some surprises

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Objectives of the KFFS

1. Understand potential climate change impacts on management values.

2. Design adaptive actions for:

– Tree species for reforestation

– Harvesting priorities

– Other forest treatments

3. Design a vision for future forest conditions

– to sustain values and promote resilience.

4. Identify vulnerabilities, barriers, and info gaps.

5. Provide Recommendations to move forward.

– For Forest Company Licensees

– For the Ministry of Forests Executive

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KFFS – Multi-disciplinary/agency/stakeholder involvement…

Min of Forests & Range (MFR)

Executive

Min of Forests & Range (MFR)

Executive

KFFS TSA teamKFFS TSA team

Symmetree Support

Team

Symmetree Support

Team

MFR Kamloops District and Region

info session•20-30 staff

MFR Kamloops District and Region

info session•20-30 staff

Min of Environment Info

Session•3 staff

Min of Environment Info

Session•3 staff

BCTS S. Interior Info Session

•50-60 staff

BCTS S. Interior Info Session

•50-60 staff

TR University Info Session

•5 staff

TR University Info Session

•5 staff

UBC Advisory Session

•3 staff

UBC Advisory Session

•3 staff

MFR Victoria Branch

Specialists Advisory Session•5 staff

MFR Victoria Branch

Specialists Advisory Session•5 staff

British Forestry Commission

•1 staff member

British Forestry Commission

•1 staff member

Ecological & Management Sensitivity

Workshops•9 MFR Regional Specialists.•4 MoE Specialists•1 MFR District person•3 Licensee practitioners•1 First Nations rep•2 University professors•2 Other specialists

Ecological & Management Sensitivity

Workshops•9 MFR Regional Specialists.•4 MoE Specialists•1 MFR District person•3 Licensee practitioners•1 First Nations rep•2 University professors•2 Other specialists

National Forest Adaptation Strategy

•2 staff•KFFS will be a case study

National Forest Adaptation Strategy

•2 staff•KFFS will be a case study

Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium

•1staff member

Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium

•1staff member

Conference Board of Canada•28 on leaders’ round table

Conference Board of Canada•28 on leaders’ round table

SISCO Workshops•75 Summer•40-50 Winter

SISCO Workshops•75 Summer•40-50 Winter

BC FFEI Info webcast and Planning session•100+ staff

BC FFEI Info webcast and Planning session•100+ staff

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Mapping impacts of climate change over time…

Used ClimateBC to downscale GCM data, along with GIS tools and local ecological interpretation to:

– Express changes in future climates as changes in ecological subzone-climates.

– Explored the reclustering of new climate variables guided by current data.

– Ecologist judgments for boundary decisions and reasonable gradient of subzones

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Modeling Climate Change with ClimateBC…

Added climate input files for two different Global Climate Models with divergent Global Emission Scenarios:

– HadCM3-A1FI (Most Change / Worst Case Scenario)

– Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction UK.

– Pessimistic view of future emissions –current trend into the future.

– Predicts hottest driest summers.

– PCM-B1 (Least Change / Best Case Scenario)

– Atmospheric Research Program for Climate Modeling USA.

– Optimistic that emissions will be significantly reduced.

– Predicts moderate summers.

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Northern Half of TSA… Current Ecological Zonation 11

Northern Half of TSA… Best Case in 2050 (PCM-B1) 12

Northern Half of TSA… Worst Case in 2050 (Hadley A1FI) 13

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Ecological Narratives

Ecological Sensitivities 15

MSxk – Bookend climate scenarios

ECOLOGICAL SENSITIVITY WORKSHOP – Kamloops Future Forest Strategy 2008

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MSxk STANDS / ECOSYSTEMS – In a changing climate 17

Ecological Sensitivity Assessment

PRODUCT = Ecological Narratives.

– Future Forest Conditions - IF WE CONTINUE TO MANAGE AS WE DO NOW.

– Changes in mature and old growth stands across the landscape.

– Changes in young stands across the landscapes

– Disturbance mechanisms

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Ecological Sensitivities provide context for next stepsSummary with 5 BEC Subzone-Groups

Dry Subzones with lodgepole pine HIGH

- Too hot and dry after 2050 for lodgepole. - Estimate 37% of landbase in young lodgepole- increased fire risk.

Dry Subzones with Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine

HIGH- Continuing mortality in Doug-fir will thin out and open up stands.- Increased grassland patches.- Increased fire risk.

Cedar-Hemlock to Douglas-fir Transitional Subzones

MOD -HIGH

- Fd drops out of mixedwoods due to drought / root rot / D-fir beetle combo.- Lose considerable cedar, spruce and birch past 2050- Increased fire risk.

Dry- Moist Plateau/ High Elevation Subzones

MOD- Increased growth in most species.- Beyond 2050 – subalpine fir drops out, lodgepole at high risk, spruce questionable on some sites lower down. May see a few large fires.

Cool/Cold & Wet Subzones LOW

-Increased mortality in old growth- Increased growth in young stands- Weevil problems for young spruce.

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Management Sensitivities 20

GENERAL TRENDS - Management SensitivitiesSummary with 5 Broad Ecological Zones

SUBZONE GROUP % of the TSA

Management Sensitivity

Summarized Rationale for Sensitivity

Dry forests with lodgepole pine

28 MOD-HIGH• High impacts on timber, biodiversity ,habitats

and fish.• Significant issues for water, interface, and First

Nations culturally important plants.

Dry forests with Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine

10 HIGH• High impacts on timber, biodiversity ,habitats

and fish, water, fire in the urban interface, First Nations culturally important plants and visual quality.

Cedar-Hemlock to Douglas-fir Transitional Forests

26 MOD-HIGH• High impacts on timber.• Significant issues on biodiversity, habitats and

fish, water, fire in the urban interface, and visual quality

Dry- Moist Plateau/ High Elevation Forests

15 MOD• Moderate impact on timber, water and First

Nations culturally important plants.• Significant issues for some habitats and fish.

Cool/Cold & Wet Forests

21 MINOR-MOD• Minor timber concerns long term – may be some

short term benefits.• Minor concerns for habitat, except for Caribou• Significant concerns for water quality.

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RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli

• Pine on marginal sites will become Non-productive -shrinking the harvestable landbase.

• KEY – Existing timber stands could take a huge hit:

– 30-40% of landbase will be in young pine post MPB.

– Expect widespread mortality again after 2050.

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RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli

• Extensive disturbance and mortality threatens:

– The small amount of Old Growth habitats in the area.

– The amount and distribution of mature trees as wildlife trees and patches.

– To increase amount of invasive plants.

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RESULTS: Management Sensitivities…EXAMPLE : Dry Subzones with Pli

• Extensive disturbance and mortality threatens:

– The small amount of Old Growth habitats in the area.

– The amount and distribution of mature trees as wildlife trees and patches.

– To increase amount of invasive plants.

Will also impact species at risk, or “of concern”

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Just a caution…

None of this is TRUE or REAL…

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BUT – It is:

• Less unbelievable than assuming nothing will change.

• Plausible- based on what we know now.

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Planting different tree species

Adaptive Actions

Targeted HarvestingOther Stand Treatments

Integrated Strategic Planning

Brinkman and Associates

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EXAMPLE: Adaptive Actions…OVERVIEW: Dry Subzones with Pli 29

Vision for the Future Forest Condition to 2080

1. The Future Forest, as influenced by KFFS Adaptive Actions.

• A story of different developing landscapes

2. The Conditions for each Key Management Value.• With and without the KFFS.

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The Future Forest – The Timber Supply Picture 31

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Vulnerabilities: Cedar-Hemlock to Doug-fir Transitional Forests

Vulnerability with PARTIAL

implementation (Due to barriers)

Vulnerability with PARTIAL

implementation (Due to barriers)

Vulnerability with FULL

implementation (barriers removed)

Vulnerability with FULL

implementation (barriers removed)

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RESULTS: General Management BARRIERS…

1. There is no process to integrate strategically over the long term at multiple spatial scales.

2. Our current system encourages least cost silviculture.

3. Difficult to encourage licensees to harvest susceptible stands - if profit is marginal.

4. Difficult to manage throughout the life of the forest (beyond free-growing).

5. Licensees and the province are reluctant to take on more risk associated with forest management.

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GENERAL TRENDS - Vulnerabilities…Potential vs. Projected Management Vulnerability

THE ENTIRE TSA

Vulnerability with PARTIAL

implementation (Due to barriers)

Vulnerability with PARTIAL

implementation (Due to barriers)

Vulnerability with FULL

implementation (barriers removed)

Vulnerability with FULL

implementation (barriers removed)

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THE POINT OF ALL THIS?

Climate Change underscores the need to significantly shift the way we manage our forests.

Must heed warning signs

OR?

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RECOMMENDATIONS•To address key barriers.•To start implementation

RECOMMENDATIONS•To address key barriers.•To start implementation

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Recommendations…to:

Start implementing management actions on the ground.

Take the approach to the rest of BC

Integrate into a strategic planning process

Address legislation and policy to remove barriers

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What is next? – Follow-up project 2009-2011

1. Use suggested direction regarding adaptive actions to more robust adaptive actions with modeling and scenario analysis.

• For key question regarding several overlapping values/issues (e.g. timber, biodiversity, interface fire risks, carbon).

• In a case study area or areas that include the most vulnerable landscapes.

2. Explore some sensitivities with the most uncertainties.

• To improve confidence and credibility in the need for adaptive actions.

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For more information:

KFFS webpage - http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hcp/ffs/kamloopsFFS.htm.

(Google - Kamloops Future Forest Strategy)

Ken Zielke

ph. 604-921-6077

email : kzielke@symmetree.ca

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