The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change".

December 2007

WHAT WE ARE

THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) IS THE LEADING INTERNATIONAL BODY FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE. IT WAS ESTABLISHED BY THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME (UNEP) AND THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO) IN 1988 TO PROVIDE THE WORLD WITH A CLEAR SCIENTIFIC VIEW ON THE CURRENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE IN CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS. IN THE SAME YEAR,

WHO WE ARE

THOUSANDS OF SCIENTISTS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD CONTRIBUTE TO THE WORK OF THE IPCC ON A VOLUNTARY BASIS. REVIEW IS AN ESSENTIAL PART OF THE IPCC PROCESS, TO ENSURE AN OBJECTIVE AND COMPLETE ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT INFORMATION. IPCC AIMS TO REFLECT A RANGE OF VIEWS AND EXPERTISE.

HOW WE WORK

THE IPCC IS AN INTERGOVERNMENTAL BODY. IT IS OPEN TO ALL MEMBER COUNTRIES OF THE UNITED NATIONS (UN) AND WMO. CURRENTLY 195 COUNTRIES ARE MEMBERS OF THE IPCC. GOVERNMENTS PARTICIPATE IN THE REVIEW PROCESS AND THE PLENARY SESSIONS, WHERE MAIN DECISIONS ABOUT THE IPCC WORK PROGRAMME ARE TAKEN AND REPORTS ARE ACCEPTED, ADOPTED AND APPROVED.

SCIENCE WITHOUT PRESCRIPTION

BECAUSE OF ITS SCIENTIFIC AND INTERGOVERNMENTAL NATURE, THE IPCC EMBODIES A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE RIGOROUS AND BALANCED SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION TO DECISION MAKERS. BY ENDORSING THE IPCC REPORTS, GOVERNMENTS ACKNOWLEDGE THE AUTHORITY OF THEIR SCIENTIFIC CONTENT. THE WORK OF THE ORGANIZATION IS THEREFORE POLICY-RELEVANT AND YET POLICY-NEUTRAL, NEVER POLICY-PRESCRIPTIVE.

WORKING GROUP I

"THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE“

IS IT AND WHY? 2006

• CLIMATE CHANGE IS OCCURRING

• CLIMATE CHANGE IS ANTHROPOGENIC IN NATURE

• CLIMATE CHANGE IS INEVITABLE GIVEN HISTORIC ACTIVITIES – THE

ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY “HEAVY” WITH CO2

• THE WORLD IS CATCHING UP TO SES

WORKING GROUP II

"CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY"

• WHAT WILL BECOME THE CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE?• ENVIRONMENTAL

• HUMAN

• ECONOMIC

• WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT THEM?• WHAT ARE THE LIKELY COSTS?

• WHAT ARE THE LIKELY BENEFITS?

• TEAM II

WORKING GROUP III

"MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE“

OPTIONS FOR MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH LIMITING OR PREVENTING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND ENHANCING ACTIVITIES THAT REMOVE THEM FROM THE ATMOSPHERE. THE MAIN ECONOMIC SECTORS ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT, BOTH IN A NEAR-TERM AND IN A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE. THE SECTORS INCLUDE ENERGY, TRANSPORT, BUILDINGS, INDUSTRY, AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, WASTE MANAGEMENT. THE WG ANALYSES THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF THE DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO MITIGATION, CONSIDERING ALSO THE AVAILABLE INSTRUMENTS AND POLICY MEASURES.

ASSESSMENT REPORTS

• AR 4 2006

• AR 5 THIS FRIDAY

MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREME

EVENTS AND DISASTERS TO ADVANCE

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE 2012

WORKING GROUP II

ASSESSES THE VULNERABILITY OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND NATURAL SYSTEMS TO CLIMATE CHANGE, NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AND OPTIONS FOR ADAPTING TO IT. IT ALSO TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE INTER-RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VULNERABILITY, ADAPTATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT. THE ASSESSED INFORMATION IS CONSIDERED BY SECTORS AND REGIONS.

WEATHER DISTRIBUTIONS: CHANGED SYMMETRY

INCREASED MEAN TEMPERATURE

INCREASED VARIABILITY

INCREASED HOT DAYS

INCREASED COLD DAYS

HUMAN CHOICES

EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY ARE DYNAMIC, VARYING ACROSS TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SCALES, AND DEPEND ON ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, GEOGRAPHIC, DEMOGRAPHIC,

CULTURAL, INSTITUTIONAL, GOVERNANCE, AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

(HIGH CONFIDENCE). [2.2, 2.3, 2.5]

DEVELOPMENT PRACTICE, POLICY, AND OUTCOMES ARE CRITICAL TO SHAPING

DISASTER RISK, WHICH MAY BE INCREASEDBY SHORTCOMINGS IN DEVELOPMENT

HIGH EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY ARE GENERALLY THE OUTCOME OF SKEWED DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES SUCH AS THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, RAPID AND UNPLANNED URBANIZATION IN HAZARDOUS AREAS, FAILURES OF GOVERNANCE, AND THE SCARCITY OF LIVELIHOOD OPTIONS FOR THE POOR.

DATA ON DISASTERS AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION ARE LACKING AT THE LOCAL

LEVEL, WHICH CAN CONSTRAIN IMPROVEMENTS

COUNTRIES MORE EFFECTIVELY MANAGE DISASTER RISK IF THEY INCLUDE CONSIDERATIONS OF DISASTER RISK IN NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND SECTOR

PLANS AND IF THEY ADOPT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES, TRANSLATING THESE PLANS AND STRATEGIES INTO ACTIONS TARGETING

VULNERABLE AREAS AND GROUPS.

INEQUALITIES INFLUENCE LOCAL COPING AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY, AND POSE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND

ADAPTATIONCHALLENGES FROM THE LOCAL TO

NATIONAL LEVELS

THESE INEQUALITIES REFLECT SOCIOECONOMIC, DEMOGRAPHIC, AND HEALTH-RELATED DIFFERENCES AND DIFFERENCES IN GOVERNANCE, ACCESS TO LIVELIHOODS, ENTITLEMENTS, AND OTHER FACTORS. INEQUALITIES ALSO EXIST ACROSS COUNTRIES: DEVELOPED COUNTRIES ARE OFTEN BETTER EQUIPPED FINANCIALLY AND INSTITUTIONALLY TO ADOPT EXPLICIT MEASURES TO EFFECTIVELY RESPOND AND ADAPT

HUMANITARIAN RELIEF IS OFTEN REQUIRED WHEN DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

MEASURES ARE ABSENT OR INADEQUATE

BY 2020, BETWEEN 75 AND 250 MILLION PEOPLE ARE PROJECTED TO BE EXPOSED TO AN INCREASE OF WATER STRESS DUE TO

CLIMATE CHANGE. (2006, AR4)

REBUILD OR MOVE?

AN EMPHASIS ON RAPIDLY REBUILDING HOUSES, RECONSTRUCTING INFRASTRUCTURE, AND REHABILITATING LIVELIHOODS OFTEN LEADS TO

RECOVERING IN WAYS THAT RECREATE OR EVEN INCREASE EXISTING VULNERABILITIES, AND THAT PRECLUDE LONGER-TERM PLANNING AND POLICY

CHANGES FOR ENHANCING RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT.

ATTENTION TO THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY IS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT GIVEN THAT THE DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF ADAPTATION AND DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES AND POLICIES CAN REDUCE RISK IN THE SHORT

TERM, BUT MAY INCREASE EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY OVER THE LONGER TERM

FOR INSTANCE, DIKE SYSTEMS CAN REDUCE FLOOD EXPOSURE BY OFFERING IMMEDIATE PROTECTION, BUT ALSO ENCOURAGE SETTLEMENT PATTERNS THAT

MAY INCREASE RISK IN THE LONG TERM.

CLOSER INTEGRATION OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

ADAPTATION, ALONG WITH THE INCORPORATION

OF BOTH INTO LOCAL, SUB-NATIONAL, NATIONAL, AND INTERNATIONAL

DEVELOPMENT POLICIES AND PRACTICES, COULD PROVIDE

BENEFITS AT ALL SCALES

ADDRESSING SOCIAL WELFARE, QUALITY OF LIFE, INFRASTRUCTURE, AND LIVELIHOODS, AND INCORPORATING A MULTI-HAZARDS APPROACH INTO PLANNING AND ACTION FOR DISASTERS IN THE SHORT TERM, FACILITATES ADAPTATION TO

CLIMATE EXTREMES IN THE LONGER TERM, AS IS INCREASINGLY RECOGNIZED INTERNATIONALLY. STRATEGIES AND POLICIES ARE

MORE EFFECTIVE WHEN THEY ACKNOWLEDGE MULTIPLE STRESSORS, DIFFERENT PRIORITIZED VALUES, AND COMPETING

POLICY GOALS.

It is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high waterlevels in the future.

EXTREME EVENTS WILL HAVE GREATER IMPACTS ON SECTORS WITH CLOSER LINKS

TO CLIMATE, SUCH AS WATER, AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY, FORESTRY, HEALTH, AND TOURISM.

POOR FOLKS

DISASTERS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE EXTREMES INFLUENCE POPULATION

MOBILITY AND RELOCATION, AFFECTING HOST AND

ORIGIN COMMUNITIES

IF DISASTERS OCCUR MORE FREQUENTLY AND/OR WITH GREATER MAGNITUDE, SOME LOCAL AREAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS PLACES TO LIVE OR IN WHICH TO MAINTAIN LIVELIHOODS. IN SUCH CASES, MIGRATION AND DISPLACEMENT COULD BECOME PERMANENT AND COULD INTRODUCE

NEW PRESSURES IN AREAS OF RELOCATION.

MANY LOW-REGRETS STRATEGIESPRODUCE CO-BENEFITS, HELP ADDRESS OTHER

DEVELOPMENT GOALS, SUCH AS IMPROVEMENTS IN LIVELIHOODS, HUMAN WELL-BEING,

AND BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION, AND HELP MINIMIZE THE SCOPE FOR MALADAPTATION.

POTENTIAL LOW-REGRETS MEASURES INCLUDE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS; RISK

COMMUNICATION BETWEEN DECISION MAKERS AND LOCAL

CITIZENS; SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT, INCLUDING LAND USE PLANNING; AND

ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND RESTORATION.

EFFECTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT GENERALLY INVOLVES A PORTFOLIO OF ACTIONS TO

REDUCE AND TRANSFER RISK

OPPORTUNITIES EXIST TO CREATE SYNERGIES IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE FOR DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND

ADAPTATIONTO CLIMATE CHANGE, BUT THESE HAVE NOT

YET BEEN FULLY REALIZED

RESPOND TO DISASTER OR ADAPT AHEAD OF TIME?

SPM1

HANDOUT