the influence of the stratosphere on tropospheric circulation and implications for forecasting nili...
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The influence of the stratosphere on tropospheric circulation and implications
for forecasting
Nili HarnikDepartment of Geophysics and Planetary
Sciences, Tel Aviv University
300 mb zonal wind
Dec 2009 – Feb 2010
300 mb zonal wind
Climatology Dec-Feb
An anomalous winter over the Atlantic-Europe-Mediterranean region
10mb
1mb
100mb
0.01mb
0.1mbAtmospheric “heat sources”
surface
Ozone layer
O2 absorption
The atmospheric layers- vertical temperature structure
Dec net daily solar radiation at surface
Dec daily ncoming radiation at top of atmosphere
W
W
W
W
C C
C
C
C
C
Observations
Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances yield a thermal wind balance: vertical shear
- pressure gradient
cold
warm
JetNo rotation
With rotation
Rotation – Coriolis force to balance it : Geostrophic balance
Differential heating
Observations
WC C
W C
The zonal mean wind is in thermal wind balance with the zonal mean temperature
The stratospheric polar night jet
10mb polar cap temperature, 2001-2
Sudden warming
The stratospheric polar vortex, looking from above, is a cold polar cap.
Sometimes, however, this cap warms by 10s of degrees in a few days Sudden stratospheric warming
Cold vortex 15 Dec 2001
10 mb total geopotential height
Wave breaking polar vortex animation
Shown: Potential vorticity- a conserved dynamical quantity (angular momentum) which depicts the vortex structure.
Anomaly starts small from below and grows upwards
How does this perturbation happen?
Stationary planetary Rossby waves, forced by mountains and air-sea assymetries propagate upwards on the vortex.
troposphere stratosphere
The waves which propagate upwards sometimes break, like sea waves, mixing vortex air with its surroundings
But sometimes the waves are reflected back down to the troposphere.
This type of coupling, and what determines which behavior we see is less well understood.
Perlwitz and Harnik (2003,2004), Harnik, 2009
Baldwin and Dunkerton, 2001
While the breakup is caused by waves propagating upwards, it starts above and slowly progresses downward.
In the troposphere, it tends to push the jet equatorwards.
The tropospheric “storm tracks” are likewise shifted equatorwards.
European climate extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Scaife et al, J Clim, 2008
Scaife et al (2008, J Clim) correctly simulated extreme surface conditions over Europe, only when imposing the observed positive wind anomaly in the lower stratosphere.
With strat. anomaly
control
Observations
Ensemble forecasts initiated just before a sudden warming showed 12 like-singend and 88 oppositely signed tropospheric responses (3.1x10-14 likelihood that is random)
Ensemble forecasts of sudden warming show stratospheric predictability of around 20 days.
12 %
88 %
How this affects predictability: (Gerber et al, 2009 GRL)
he
igh
t
season
Baldwin et al, Science 2003
Stratospheric time scales are longer.
Tropospheric time scales are longer during the stratospheric active season:
NH Dec-Feb (winter)
SH Nov-Dec (spring)
Observed auto correlation (“memory”) time scales of the zonal mean flow
Conclusions:
•Planetary Rossby waves propagate upwards on the stratospheric winter polar vortex, occasionally leading to a sudden warming.
•Sudden warmings propagate downwards to the lower stratosphere, where they nudge the tropospheric jet stream and weather systems to a more equatorwards postion.
•The longer predictability of the stratosphere during these times can add predictability to the troposphere.
We can gain predictaiblity by resolving the stratosphere in models
•The Atlantic-European sector is most sensitive to this.
So what about the current winter:
The jet stream anomaly started before the main sudden warming (Jan 23) but the warming can explain its persistence in this anomalous state