the india employment · pdf filethe india employment report ... • census of india: 2001,...

The India Employment Report

SAMPLE SLIDES FOR RESTRICTED CIRCULATION

Strictly confidential

© IMA India, 2017

© IMA India, 2017 www.ima-india.com 2

The report provides strategic insightsas well as detailed employment data atthe country, state, district and citylevels. The report will help you: Identify emerging talent and job

hotspotsUnderstand nature of

employment types Track talent movement Assess sectoral demand for talent Feed insights into your talent

strategy

The report is based on a minute analysis of four of the largest databases in the country• The Employment Surveys of the

National Sample Survey Organisation: 2004-05, 2011-12

• The Employment-Unemployment Surveys of the Labour Bureau: 2015-16

• Census of India: 2001, 2011• Economic Census of India:

2013-14

The India Employment Report


Employment by industry

sectors

Employment by geography

Employment types – salaried, self-employed,

casual, etc.

Informal sector, Govt. jobs vis-à-

vis private sector

Emerging talent & job

hotspots – cities that matter

The IER: A decision maker’s guide

National level

States

Districts

Insight into trends

Projections*

Where is the talent going to come from?

Is vocational training the answer?

Is skill development aiding employability?

Manufacturing or IT?

Where is talent and where is it migrating?

2001 to 2015-16

Cities

2020-21Shops, factories or offices?

Which underutilised talent pools can be

leveraged?

* Linear projections assuming business as usual scenario for select parameters

Employment situation in the states

Mumbai, Aurungabad or Ghaziabad?

Sample slides



© IMA India, 2017


Employed, 462.5, 50%

Unemployed, 18, 2%

Students & those not seeking employment,

445.6, 48%

India in 2015-16

In 2015-16, 462.5 million people above the age of 14 years were employed – 9 mn more than a decade ago; and about

18 mn were searching for jobs10 states that account for 73% of population above 14 years also

account for 75% of employment

Uttar PradeshMaharashtra

West BengalTamil NaduBihar

Largest employment

states

RajasthanAndhra Pradesh

Madhya PradeshGujarat

3.10.67

3.2

0.74

Completed graduation Completedpostgraduation

Male FemaleKarnataka

The employment and talent scenario in India: 2015-16

340 356 340 155 78

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

A young country: age distribution, 2015 (mn)*

0-14 15-29 30-49 50-65 65+

While the number of workers dipped from 466.8 mn in 2011-12, the number of those who were either studying (98.5 mn) or did not seek employment in 2011-12 (278.6) increased by 69 mn. The number of unemployed too increased by about 8 mn. – a small number, but a 76% increase in 4 years

India produced 6.3 mn graduates and 1.4 mn postgraduates in 2015. The US is expected to produce 1.9 mn graduates and 0.8 mn postgraduates. Encouragingly, the share of women is half the total.

Sample slide: Illustrative data


The number of employed people increased by about 91 million (mn) between 1999-00 and 2015-16. However, both number of people employed and their share in the total population have decreased steadily in the last four years

371.4 451.3 466.8 475.2 462.5

60.3% 62.2% 54.7% 53.7%50.5%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

0

100

200

300

400

500

1999-00 2004-05 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16

Trend in employment in India between 1999-00 and 2015-16 (15 years & above age)

Number of employed people (mn)

Employed as % of age group population (right axis)

Source: NSSO, Labour Bureau, IMA analysis

Employment has stagnated over the past half decade

290350 343 336 327

81 100123 139 135

1999-00 2004-05 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16

Urban India added more people in the workforce (in mn)

Rural Urban

Between 1999-00 and 2015-16, about 1.5 times more people were employedin the urban areas than in rural areas. The urban workforce increased at amuch faster 3.3% CAGR compared to 0.8% of the rural workforce.

Notably, the increased rate of employment in the urban areas has been accompanied with greater number of people withhigher education. For instance, between 2001 and 2011, the urban areas produced 82 mn graduates and postgraduates, double the number in ruralareas. Moreover, the pool of graduates and postgraduates in urban areas is also double that of the pool in rural areas (184 mn and 89 mn, respectively, in2011).

The ratio of rural employment declined from 3.5 times urban employment in 2004-05 to 2.4 times in 2015-16

…even as Indians are better educated than ever before, and urban areas are emerging as a key source for industry


10 states account for 75% employment…

Except the four states of Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh, number of people above 15 years age with employment as principal occupation increased in all other

states between 2004-05 and 2015-16

9.81

5.77

9.89

2.26

7.53

3.17

1.02

5.52

(0.2

0)

1.09

3.09

1.64

4.59

1.97

1.53

(0.1

8)

0.95

0.92

0.45

0.01

(0.6

1) 0.36

0.31

0.08

0.02

0.11

(0.0

1)

0.15

0.08

0.02

63.5

47.2

37.1 33.8 33.5

27.6 27 24.3 24.323.2

16.6 15.313.2 12.8

11.7

9.1 95.7

3.4 3.42.3

1.81.4

1.3

0.90.6 0.6 0.5

0.50.3

(10.00)

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

UP

Mah WB

TN

Biha

r

Kar

Raj

asth

an AP

MP

Guj

arat

Odi

sha

J'kha

nd

Chh

'garh

Ker

ala

Ass

am

Punj

ab

Har

yana

Del

hi

J&K

U'k

hand HP

Trip

ura

Man

ipur

Meg

hala

ya

N'la

nd

Miz

oram ArP

P'ch

erry

Goa

Sikk

im

Increase in employment

Total employment in 2015-16

Cha

nge

in n

umbe

r of

peop

le e

mpl

oyed

All figures in mn

Source: Labour Bureau, NSSO, IMA analysis

…although these states change when considered only for the private sector


252.7 219.4 211.3

2.8 2.7 1.8

27.6 50.1 51.5

43.7 46.3 48.5

71.4 90.0 102.9

53.1 58.2 46.3

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%

100%

2004-05 2011-12 2015-16

Trend in sectoral employment

Agriculture Mining Construction Trade Other services Manufacturing

Changing drivers of employment… away from agriculture and manufacturing…

…with a concomitant rise in employment in construction and trade

The number of people employed in the agriculture sector has consistently declined in the past decade.

The number and share of workers in the manufacturing sector too has declined in 2015-16 after increasing between 2004-05 and 2011-12

The number of workers in the construction sector nearly doubled between 2004-05 and 2015-16



256.1 214.4

64.9 98.9

130.2 149.2

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2004-05 2015-16

Trend in type of employment, 14+ years age group (mn)

Self-employed Regular Salaried Casual Labourer

19

34

-41.7

The greatest growth is being registered in the regular salaried class

* Self-employed are those who operate their own farm or non-farm enterprises or are engaged independently in a profession or trade on own-account or with one or a few partners. Casual wage labourers are those who are casually engaged in others’ farm or non-farm enterprises (both household and non- household) and, in return, received wages according to the terms of the daily or periodic work contract

Among the three different types of workers, regular salaried employees registered the greatest increase in number in the past decade, increasing its share in employment from 14% in 2004-05 to 21% in 2015-16; the share of casual labourers also registered a mild increase from 29% to 33% during the same period


…but self-employment remains the predominant form of employment

At 180.7 mn people, the informal sector is the biggest jobcreator…


…followed with a lag by the government (30.5 mn) and private sectors (19.2 mn)

Source: NSSO, IMA analysis, data pertains to 2011-12


State-wise employment in the informal sector, 2011-12

Source: NSSO, IMA analysis

The top 10 states account for 77% of employment in the informal sector enterprises


100.6 127.1 104.0 94.9

189.6 223.0 239.3 229.9

34.7%

36.3%

30.3% 29.2%

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

050

100150200250300350400

1999-00 2004-05 2011-12 2015-16

Composition of the workforce, by gender: Rural India

MaleFemale% share of women in workforce (right axis)

One of the key supply constraints to the job market has been thedeclining presence of women

15.7 21.6 24.6 23.9 65.3 78.8 99.3 110.5

19.4%21.5%

19.8% 17.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

020406080

100120140160

1999-00 2004-05 2011-12 2015-16

Composition of the workforce, by gender: Urban India

MaleFemale% share of women in workforce (right axis)

In 2015-16, only 35% working age women were employed compared to 61% of working age men



3.9 13.0 16.2 19.0 19.4 20.2 15.3 12.8 8.9 10.0

3.5 2.4

95.3

19.6 3.5

76.0 16.7 26.0 24.7 19.6 16.9 13.7 12.4 10.1 15.2

9.7 18.8

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

0-14

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-6

0

61-6

5

abov

e 65

2004-05 (mn)

Employed Unemployed Studying OLF

1.6 7.6 13.1 15.9 16.3 17.8 14.8 12.4 8.8 9.1 3.7

2.3

113.4 33.9

8.0

63.6 15.8

32.6 33.6 28.1 25.3 21.2 18.6 15.3 20.4 13.5 25.8

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

0-14

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-6

0

61-6

5

abov

e 65

Age-wise occupation of women, 2011-12 (mn)

Employed Unemployed Studying OLF

The share of women in employment has declined primarily onaccount of their moving out of labour force

OLF: out of labour force (not including students)

Age group Age group

In 2011-12, 36% more women (~66 mn) than in 2004-05, in the working age group chose not to work

The largest decline occurred in the age group between 35 and 54, where the number of women out of labour force in each of the 5-yrs age groups increased by 50% or more



Education: Some improvementBetween 2001 and 2011 – 20 mn lesser illiterates, 38 mn more with primary education, 110 mn more with secondary/higher secondary education, 4 mn more with diplomas and certificates, and 31 mn more graduates and postgraduates

479.2 467.9 447.2

90.6 164.9 182.1 103.3

146.7 184.2 142.0 207.3

317.8

2.8

4.1 8.3

20.6

37.7

68.3

1991 2001 2011

Educational qualification in India (in mn)

Graduate & above

Diploma

Middle, secondary &higher secondaryPrimary

Below primary

Illiterate

447 385 306

182 181

143

184 208

154

318 439 549

8 15 25 68

111 162

2011 (actual) 2021 (scenario1)

2021 (scenario2)

Possible scenarios for 2021 (population in mn) (scenario 2 assumes double rate of

change)Graduate & above

Diploma

Middle, secondary &higher secondary

Primary

Below primary

Illiterate

The context The future

Source: Census, IMA analysis


The transformation reflects in the educational profile of the workforce

172.49 139.46

109.66 110.61

129.29 163.94

6.83 6.87

21.20 31.56 6.73 11.98

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%

100%

2004-05 2011-12

Educational qualification of workforce: Rural & Urban India

Postgraduate

Graduate

Diploma/Certificate

Up to highersecondary

Up to primary

Illiterate

The share of illiterates still account for nearly a third of those employed. The share of graduates and postgraduates has nearly doubled in two decades, but they account for less than a tenth of the workforce.

Between 2004-05 and 2011-12, 10 mn graduates and 5 mn postgraduates were added to the workforce



Greater Mumbai, 58

Bangalore, 49Hyderabad, 46

Delhi , 44

Chennai, 28Ahmadabad, 25

Pune, 22

Kolkata, 13

Nagpur, 13

Jaipur, 13

Lucknow, 13

Surat, 10

Vadodara, 9

Thiruvananthapuram , 8

Nashik , 8

Srinagar, 8

Bhopal, 8

Pimpri Chinchwad , 8

Indore, 8

Thane, 7Visakhapatnam, 7

Patna, 7

Aurangabad , 7Chandigarh , 6

Navi Mumbai , 6

Top 25 cities with medicine graduates and postgraduates, 2011

Numbers in thousands; for list of top 100 cities see appendix Source: Census, IMA analysis


Ageing population to exert greater employment demand

In 2021 the age group of 0-19 years – the age group that increasingly comprises students – will shrink by 44 mn, while the 19+ group of population will increase by 173 mn.

The increased population of the older group clearly translates to greater demand for employment

Source: Census, Registrar General of India, IMA analysis

2021


Contents of the Report (indicative)

Broad trends in employment

Employment trends by gender, location (rural/urban) and types of employment (regular salaried, self-employed, casual) Changes in urban and rural employment; the role of migration and the impact of employment guarantee schemes

Education and talent pool

Educational trends: levels and types of education; Employment and education hotspots Availability of talent by subject stream

Unemployment The qualified but unutilised talent pool – the unemployed and those not joining the labour force

The continuing dominance of informal employment vis-à-vis formal employment in the context of evolving talent pool The growing private sector: nature of employment and talent absorption

The challenge for the private sector

Employment in sectors

Industry sector-wise employment.

Vocational training and skill development

How are skill development programmes performing? Employability in comparison to those with other qualifications

Projections for 2021

Changes in urban and rural employment; the role of migration and the impact of employment guarantee schemesCities as drivers of employment growth

National and state level employment Extent of urbanisation Educational profile of the population (employed, unemployed and out of labour force population)


For IMA Clients/Members: Rs 30,000 (plus taxes) For other corporations: Rs 50,000 (plus taxes) Subscription fees are payable in advance

The India Employment Report is available to subscribers only.

Subscription Fees

To subscribe, please contact: Ritesh Sahay [email protected], Jemima Mohan [email protected]

You can also subscribe to the report online at http://www.ima-india.com/e-subscription-forms1.asp?links=esf2

Payment can be made through cheque or draft drawn in favour of ‘International Market Assessment India Private Limited’ orthrough bank transfer (Account name – International Market Assessment India Private Limited; Account Number:0341060001; Bank name: CITIBANK NA; SWIFT Code – CITIINBX; IFSC Code – CITI0000002)

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.ima-india.com/e-subscription-forms1.asp?links=esf2


IMA IndiaProprietary Research and Consulting

For more than two decades, IMA India has undertaken proprietary consulting and research assignments for some of the world’s most prominent companies that are almost without exception, leading players in their respective segments. IMA provides a suite of custom research and advisory services to help organisations develop and fine-tune their India strategy, identify market opportunities, and better understand the operating environment in this country


(New) opportunity assessmentsNew opportunities do not always arise from the immediate market context, but often from developments in seemingly unrelated markets or segments of the economy. Leveraging its extensive knowledge of the Indian economy, markets and industry sectors, IMA India helps clients conceptualise and evaluate both obvious and ‘not-so-obvious’ market opportunities.

Market sizing and demand estimation/forecastingIMA India's ability to develop ground-up estimation models leads to the formulation of a more realistic go-to-market and investment strategy, particularly in new and evolving industry segments.

Entry and business strategy formulationFor businesses looking to expand their existing presence – or enter the market afresh – IMA provides strategic research and consulting support, identifying a fit between the client’s goals and capabilities with the needs of the country/market it seeks to enter. At a more operational level, the need is to define specific market segments, size up their potential and future prospects, and understand the broader lay of the land, in terms of competition, distribution, supply chains and regulations. But at a decision making level, the foremost need is to understand ‘what works’, ‘what doesn’t’ and ‘what hasn’t been tried’.

Proprietary Research and Consulting


Syndicated research serviceIMA India takes up research assignments on behalf of a syndicate of corporations – a set of firms, often from the same sector – to respond to their need to have common concerns investigated and analysed, and potential solutions explored. Examples of such research exercises include a cost-benchmarking study for the IT sector, HR-practices benchmarking across sectors, and scenario modelling for various industries.

Off-the-shelf research reportsIMA undertakes research exercises to present business and economic insights related to developments in the operating environment by utilising India’s largest databases generated by Government agencies as the most reliable data available in the country. These include databases of the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), which are typically used to inform Government policy process. IMA’s reports make these massive data sets that reflect key trends at both a macro and micro level relevant to corporate decision-making. Recent examples include The India Consumption Report, which tracked changes in consumption patterns across states and resultant market opportunities across the country between 2005 and 2012, and the India Employment Report, which analyses the dynamics of the work force and patterns of employment in the two decades through 2015-16.

Proprietary Research and Consulting

the india employment · pdf filethe india employment report ... • census of india: 2001,...

Documents