The Implications of Convergence

on Spectrum Management

The Implications of Convergence

on Spectrum Management

Mike Goddard Director, Spectrum and International

Policy

Radiocommunications Agency, UK

Mike Goddard Director, Spectrum and International

Policy

Radiocommunications Agency, UK

ConvergenceConvergence

• The merging of broadcasting, telecommunications and computing

• The convergence of the underlying technologies for delivering information, communication and entertainment to a wide range of users

Spectrum Managers need to plan ahead but cannot predict the future

Spectrum Managers need to plan ahead but cannot predict the future

• External study commissioned by the UK - “Mapping the Future of Convergence of Spectrum Management”

• Study based on ‘Future Mapping’, developing four scenarios for 2010 (not predictions)

• Assessment of implications for spectrum management for each scenario

Why Scenarios? Why Scenarios?

• Addressing uncertainty– Accelerating change in technologies, markets

• Challenging conventional wisdom– Asking “What if?”

• Stimulating strategic thinking– Broader picture of technological, political,

economic, environmental, social trends

Conventional wisdom constrainsfuture thinking to linear extrapolation of present

Uncertainty dealt with bychanging forecast ±10%

+10%

- -10%

2000

2010

Forecasts vs Scenarios Forecasts vs Scenarios

We don’t know the futureWe can make a forecastBut it will probably be

wrong!

The Future Can Be Quite Different From What We Expect

The Future Can Be Quite Different From What We Expect

• Complex interaction of political, economic, social, technological influences

• Totally different shape from present!

Scenarios are not …...Scenarios are not …...

• Predictions: they are alternative visions of future

• Choices: there is no need to choose between scenarios

• We imagine the future not to predict it but to understand it and prepare for it

Mapping the Future: four very different visions (1)Mapping the Future: four very different visions (1)

A) Internet Convergence– Internet central to everyday life shaking up

value chains - strong brands highly prized– Multiple access platforms, user-friendly

interfaces

B) Digital Islands– Confused consumers seek refuge in trusted

walled gardens– DTV popular, cable thrives

Mapping the Future: four very different visions (2)Mapping the Future: four very different visions (2)

C) Total Mobility– Mobile connectivity key, wide range of

service providers, some virtual– WLANs, Bluetooth, frequency-agile

technology

D) Broadband Revolution– Bandwidth is king, wireless can’t compete– electronic-optical interface close to users,

wireless links short, high bandwidth

Scenarios - delivery mechanismsScenarios - delivery mechanisms

Title

A - Internet Convergence

B - Digital Islands

C - Total Mobility

D - Broadband Revolution

Delivery mechanism

IP networks using open standards

Proprietary closed networks

Mobile terminal devices

Broadband optical networks(Wireless a poor substitute)

Picture is ComplexPicture is Complex

• Not straightforward ‘either/or’ situation• End-states can co-exist and interact• Dominance of end-states likely to shift

over time• But some common conclusions emerge

Specific conclusions applicable to Spectrum Management

Specific conclusions applicable to Spectrum Management• Need dynamic, responsive, flexible spectrum

management to respond to rapid, unpredictable change

• Increase use of market-based spectrum management tools such as auctions and trading

• More spectrum needed for fixed and mobile services

• Seek modifications to ITU service definitions so that nature of transmissions rather than content determine use made of frequency bands

Flexible allocationsFlexible allocations

• More general, less specific allocations

• Introduction of spectrum trading

• Unregulated/lightly regulated blocks of spectrum

More spectrum needed for:More spectrum needed for:

• Wide area mobile networks

• Fixed, including fixed wireless access

• Local area networks

• Being met by IMT-2000 decisions

• Existing bands, higher frequencies (>30 GHz) and especially 40 GHz

• 2.5 and 5 GHz, plus review of allocations, 2 - 6 GHz

Service definitionsService definitions

• Why do we allocate specific bands to specific services ?

• Are the international service definitions still valid ?

• Do we obey them ?• What would we do if we could start

afresh ?

Basic AssumptionsBasic Assumptions

• Convergence impacts mainly on broadcasting, fixed and mobile

• Little impact on other services• Need different allocations for

incompatible services• Can share compatible services

ExampleExample

• Fixed service sharing with fixed-satellite service

• By definition, terminal stations in fixed service are at “specified fixed points”

• Hence the two services can co-exist using frequency coordination

Example (continued)Example (continued)

• Many new fixed services are not point-to-point but point-to-multipoint

• Similarly, in the fixed-satellite service, VSAT networks or direct-to-home services may have terminals anywhere within a specified area

• Do these applications meet the strict definition of the fixed service?

• Do the usual sharing assumptions apply?

One possible alternative approach (intended to initiate debate, not a formal proposal)

One possible alternative approach (intended to initiate debate, not a formal proposal)

• Sub-divide the fixed definition into:a) traditional fixed (terminal at

specified position)b) Point-to-multipoint (fixed node

but terminals anywhere within a specified area)

• Mobile service definition unchanged• Broadcasting could be covered by fixed

point-to-multipoint (thus facilitating interactive broadcasting)

Review of definitions - objectivesReview of definitions - objectives

• Take account of technical and operational developments

• Provide flexibility for future developments while meeting spectrum management objectives

• Evaluate the impact on individual allocations

• Provide general allocations at global level - more detail regionally or nationally

SummarySummary

• Convergence will have major impact on spectrum management

• Additional spectrum will be needed for some services

• Allocations and licensing must provide flexibility

• Traditional service definitions will need to be reviewed

• The debate must be widened internationally, and especially in the ITU