THE IMPACT OF THE CHANGING INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

ON TRANSPORTATION AND PLANNING

By: Donncha O'Cinneide Senior V i s i t i n g Fel low Center f o r Met ropo l i tan Planning and Research The Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y Bal t imore Mary1 and 21 21 8

December 1980

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

INTRODUCTION ............................................... 1

THE GENERAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRANSPORTATION AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS ......................................... 4

THE CHANGING INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT ....................... 5

Devel opments i n Computer Techno? ogy ................... 5

Developments i n Telecommunications .................... 6

The Present S ta tus o f Telecommunication Serv ices ................................ . ~ . ~ ~ ~ . . . b ~ ~ ~ ~ 9

The Convergence o f I n f o r m a t i o n and Telecommunication Technologies ......................................... 14

E f f e c t s o f t h e Changing I n f o r m a t i o n Environment on S o c i e t y .......................................... . . . *14

I m p l i c a t i o n s for T r a n s p o r t a t i o n ...................... 20

A REVIEW OF TRANSPORTATION/TELECOMMUNICATION STUDIES ...... 22

General Comments .................................... - 2 2

Typology o f S tud ies ................................. 2 4

A Review o f F i e l d S tud ies ............................ 26

Unresolved Issues: More o r Less T r a v e l ? .............. 37

THE IMPACT OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS ON TRANSPORTATION AND PLANNING ............................................... e . 0 3 9

T r a n s p o r t a t i o n System Impacts ........................ 40

Energy Imp1 i c a t i o n s ................................. - 4 2

D e c e n t r a l i z a t i o n .................................... - 4 4

Soc ia l Issues ........................................ 45

CONCLUSIONS.. .......................................... 0.046

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page

REFERENCES ................................................ 48

APPENDIX A: Travel-Time Budgets and the Future Use o f Telecommunications ............................ 53

APPENDIX B: The Incorporation o f Telecommunications into the Transportation Planning Process. .......... 57

INTRODUCTION

Urban development plans today are usually based on solving existing

social , land use and transportation problems rather than anticipating the

urban forms best suited t o our future needs.

normally use trend type projections (frequently i n the form of complex

pseudo-behavioral models) t o quantify the future magnitude of their

present problems. Radical societal changes are n o t predicted by these

models since such changes are often no t significantly present in the data

used t o build and 'cal ibrate ' these models. I n recent years largely

unforeseen trends i n urban development include declining c i ty populations,

increasing blue-collar unemployment, rapid suburban development and the

growth o f exurban or rural areas.

Many of these radical changes in living patterns resulted from the

This occurs because planners

growth of automobile usage and from low energy costs.

are now predicting t h a t b o t h urban and rural l iving, working and

interaction patterns will change drastically over the next twenty t o

f i f t y years as a result of the impact of energy shortages and increased

energy costs

However, fu tur i s t s

To resolve b o t h our present transportation problems and t o plan

our future transportation systems a basic understanding of the particular

needs and demands of man as a transport user i s required.

information i s available in this area a l t h o u g h a vast amount of general

information has been collected on urban travel patterns and volumes

(mainly as a resul t of urban t ranspor ta t ion planning studies).

However, l i t t l e

Transpor-

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t a t i o n i s one sub-system o f a l a r g e r urban system cons is t i ng o f elements

such as land-use, business, e t c .

t ranspor ta t i on and these o ther sub-systems must be understood f o r o r d e r l y

p lanning o f the urban and ex-urban environment.

these areas has genera l l y cons is ted of p lanning each element o r sub-system

i n i s o l a t i o n .

can g ross l y a f f e c t components i n o ther sub-systems. The need f o r a

systems approach f o r reso lv ing urban problems has been conv inc ing ly argued

by Kol buszowski (1 ) and others.

The l inkages o r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between

To date the p lanning o f

However, the pe r tu rba t i on o f one component i n one sub-system

A f u r t h e r v a r i a b l e re levan t t o the f u t u r e o f urban areas i s t he new

' i n fo rma t ion environment' which i s being created by the complementary

r a p i d growth i n e l e c t r o n i c data processing and telecommunications.

p red ic ted vas t increase i n communications o f a l l types has obvious

imp1 i c a t i o n s f o r t ranspor ta t i on and urban p lanning bu t 1 i t t l e i n fo rma t ion

i s a v a i l a b l e on t h e e x i s t i n g l i nkage between t ranspor ta t i on and t e l e -

communications.

The

The e f f e c t s o f the new in fo rma t ion environment are expected t o be

as r a d i c a l as those in t roduced by the development o f the i n t e r n a l combustion

engine. F a i l u r e t o p lan f o r these changes would be comparable i n

importance t o the f a i l u r e t o a n t i c i p a t e the exp los ive growth i n c a r

ownership e a r l i e r i n t h i s century. However, e x i s t i n g c i t y plans do n o t

a n t i c i p a t e the expected r a d i c a l changes i n l i v i n g and working pa t te rns .

Experts agree on the magnitude o f the coming impact but t he re i s d isagree-

ment on the impact o f the new technologies on s p e c i f i c sectors of the

economy such as t ranspor ta t i on ,

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This work b r i e f l y summarizes the imp l i ca t i ons o f the changing

in fo rmat ion environment f o r soc’iety and then examines t h e a v a i l a b l e

evidence on the r e l a t i o n s h i p between t ranspor ta t i on and telecommunications

from a number o f count r ies .

technologies on p lanning and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a re nex t considered.

impacts are l i k e l y t o d i f f e r between count r ies depending on the e x i s t i n g

land use and t ranspor ta t i on systems.

Un i ted States, the Un i ted Kingdom and the Republic o f I r e l a n d are

i d e n t i f i ed .

The expected impacts o f the new e l e c t r o n i c

These

Probable d i f f e rences between the

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THE GENERAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TRANSPORTATION AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS

Both t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and telecommunications are the r e s u l t o f the

same under ly ing commercial and soc ia l connections. The r o l e of t rans -

p o r t a t i o n encompasses the t r a n s f e r o f people, goods and in fo rma t ion

wh i l e the so le f u n c t i o n o f telecommunications i s the t r a n s f e r o f

in fo rmat ion . Thus the f u n c t i o n which both t ranspor ta t i on and t e l e -

conimunications have i n common i s t he t r a n s f e r o f in fo rmat ion . The

general r e l a t i o n s h i p between human t r i p s and a r t i f i c i a l media w i t h

in fo rmat ion f l o w suggested by Kolbuszewski (1 ) i s shown on F igure 1.

FIGURE 1

Re la t ionsh ip Between Human T r i p and A r t i f i c i a l Media w i t h Social Flow o f In format ion-

SOCIAL FLOW

NON-INFORMATION FLOW INFORMATION FLOW (Energy, Commodi t y )

HUMAN T R I P ART I F I C IAL MED I A

MA I L MESSENGER

1 TELECOMMUNICATION TEL E PHO N E TELEGRAM TELETYPE TELEV I S I O N (GRAPH I C

DISPLAY ) TELE-PRINT

(FACSIMILE )

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THE CHANGING INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT

A radically new information environment i s being created by the

convergence and inter1 inkage of information technology and telecommuni-

cations. This new information environment has profound imp1 ications

for society (e.g. automatic control o f production and resources,

electronic surveillance, e t c . ) and has been viewed as more disruptive

than any previous technological impact. The developments in computer

and telecommunications technologies which are creating this changing

information environment are outlined in the following pages. Possible

changes in the different sectors o f society (pol i t ics , business, e t c . )

are then briefly considered w i t h emphasis on communications aspects.

Finally the implications for transport of the new information environ-

ment are examined in more de ta i l .

Developments in Computer Technology

The rapid development of computer technology especially over the

l a s t twenty years has been analysed in detail elsewhere ( 2 ) .

growth of th i s technology has been much faster t h a n i n any other

technological area.

generation terms (embodying radically new jumps i n capabil i t y ) rather

than the incremental growth which i s the norm in other technological

areas. Computers are becoming smaller, fas ter and cheaper and these

trends are expected t o continue in future.

trends within computer technology may be added comparable quali tative

The

Thus the developments of new systems have been in

To these quantitative

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changes i n computer programming i .e . i n sof tware. These changes a re

no t on l y i n the development o f new programming languages and new

programmes but i n the a n c i l l a r y range o f opera t ing i n s t r u c t i o n s , i n

more soph is t i ca ted systems ana lys is i n general , and, impor tan t ly , i n

the development o f automatic programming,

A f u r t h e r q u a l i t a t i v e impact o f computers i n i n t h e i r r a p i d

extension through many d i f f e r e n t areas o f human a c t i v i t y from the

i n d i v i d u a l , community o r l o c a l business l e v e l s t o na t i ona l and i n t e r -

na t i ona l l e v e l s .

The increase i n the growth and i n t e r l i n k a g e o f l a r g e computer

networks and t h e i r c o n t r o l capac i t i es w i l l cause s i g n i f i c a n t changes as

soc ie ty begins t o r e l y more and more on cybernet ic c o n t r o l systems f o r

many r o u t i n e product ion , serv ice and maintenance func t ions .

Developments i n Telecommunications

Telecommunications technology has changed d ramat i ca l l y du r ing the

past twenty years due t o r a p i d developments i n e l e c t r o n i c s and o p t i c s .

These changes and the probable f u t u r e developments have been out1 ined

by var ious a u t h o r i t i e s ( 3 ) .

o f the new developments i n telecommunications have n o t been brought i n t o

widespread use due t o the h igh costs invo lved i n modi fy ing t h e e x i s t i n g

t e l ecommun i c a t i on s network . Tel ecommun i c a t i on med i a i n w i despread use

today i nc lude telephone, t e l e x , t e l egraph, t e l e v i s ion and rad io , whi 1 e

more advanced media such as videophone ( p i c t u r e phone) , f a c s i m i l e

However, u n l i k e computer technology, many

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transmission, viewdata, e tc . , although technologically feasible are not

yet i n widespread use.

l a t e r .

The current status of these services i s reviewed

The telephone system i s expected t o form the main telecommunications

distribution system in future due t o limitations of channel sizes i n a i r

based media and i s therefore of particular interest here.

transmission, in which speech i s sent by a series of impulses in the form

o f a code, i s expected t o replace the present analogue transmission o f

speech in future.

transmission o f a l l types of telecommunication signals including te le -

vision, videophone, d a t a and facsimile.

Digital

This pulse technique i s suitable for the combined

The telephone system consists of pairs of t h i n insulated copper

wires joining each telephone t o the local exchange.

then connected t o other exchanges by hierarchical and/or network systems

consisting o f various combinations of co-axial cables and microwave

radio ( b o t h direct overland and via communications s a t e l l i t e s ) .

capacity of these main telecommunications 'highways' has been increasing

in order o f magnitude terms ( l i ke computer capacity) over the past twenty

years. Recent new developments using he1 ical waveguides and laser

transmission along optic fibres (embodying further radical jumps in

channel capacity) are now being operated by telecommunication operators

i n a number of countries.

being changed from electro-mechanical t o electronic operation i n most

countries.

improve exchange performance.

Each exchange i s

The

Telephone exchanges are i n the process of

Extensive use i s also being made of computer technology t o

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The main l i m i t a t i o n t o t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f new telecommunicat ion

serv ices i s the l o c a l te lephone network. A l though t h e replacement o f

analogue s i g n a l s by a s e r i e s o f b i n a r y pu lses (pu lse code modu la t ion)

can inc rease t h e c a p a c i t y o f w i r e p a i r s s i g n i f i c a n t l y , t h e a d d i t i o n a l

c a p a c i t y i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t l y g r e a t t o p e r m i t t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f many

o f t h e new teleconimunicat ion serv ices .

p r o v i s i o n o f these s e r v i c e s r e q u i r e s a comple te ly new l o c a l network

u s i n g c o a x i a l cab les r a t h e r than w i r e p a i r s .

c a b l e t e l e v i s i o n s e r v i c e s (which use c o a x i a l cab les) i n many c o u n t r i e s

i s seen as a r e l a t i v e l y cheap method o f upgrading t h e e x i s t i n g l o c a l

te lecommunicat ions network.

300 t imes t h e p o t e n t i a l i t y o f copper p a i r b u t a t p resent do n o t have

s u f f i c i e n t bandwidth f o r new telecommunicat ion s e r v i c e s such as t h e

videophone.

It appears a t p resent t h a t t h e

The r a p i d ex tens ion o f

E x i s t i n g TV c o a x i a l c a b l e systems p r o v i d e

The r a t e a t which new developments i n telecommunicat ions a r e brought

i n t o widespread use i n a p a r t i c u l a r c o u n t r y w i l l depend on severa l

f a c t o r s i n c l u d i n g t h e general s t a t e o f t h e economy, t h e demand f o r new

f a c i l i t i e s and t h e c o s t s i n v o l v e d ,

As a consequence o f t h e developments i n te lecommunicat ions c o s t s

have been reduc ing a n n u a l l y though a t a much lower r a t e than computer

cos ts . Thus f o r a g iven l e v e l o f performance Murray Laver ( 4 ) s t a t e s

t h a t t h e c o s t o f computer equipment has been f a l l i n g a t about 50% per

annum whereas t h e corresponding r a t e f o r te lecommunicat ions has been

nearer 2%. Since t h e development o f te lecommunicat ions networks i n v o l v e s

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h i g h l a b o u r c o s t s i t appears probable t h a t r a d i c a l r e d u c t i o n s i n c o s t s

a r e u n l i k e l y i n t h e f u t u r e .

p r e d i c t e d t o inc rease r a p i d l y i n f u t u r e .

On t h e o t h e r hand t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s a r e

The Present S ta tus o f Telecommunication Serv ices

The c u r r e n t s t a t u s o f those advanced telecommunicat ion dev ices

which a r e l i k e l y t o have a s i g n i f i c a n t impact on t r a n s p o r t a t i o n a r e

b r i e f l y reviewed i n t h e f o l l o w i n g pages, More ex tens ive rev iews a r e

ava i 1 a b l e e l sew here ( 5 , 6 ) ,

( ' S ) Cable t e l e v i s l i o n : _II

i s growing r a p i d l y because o f the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f communications s a t e l l i t e s .

More than 4100 separate c a b l e t e l e v i s i o n systems a r e i n o p e r a t i o n a t

p resent and over 22 percent o f the TV owning households subscr ibe t o c a b l e

t e l e v i s i o n . As major c o r p o r a t i o n s e n t e r t h e f i e l d i t i s expected t h a t t h e

p e n e t r a t i o n r a t e w i l l double i n the n e x t few years. A l l c a b l e systems

i n s t a l l e d s i n c e 1972 i n the U.S. a r e r e q u i r e d by law t o have two-way

communications c a p a b i l i t i e s . A l though n o t y e t i n widespread use t h e

two-way c a p a b i l i t y enables a number o f s e r v i c e s t o be prov ided which can

s u b s t i t u t e f o r t r a v e l (e.g. ca ta logue shopping, u t i 1 i t y meter read ing ,

e t c . ) .

The p e n e t r a t i o n o f c a b l e t e l e v i s i o n i n U.S. homes

A number o f exper imental i n t e r a c t i v e c a b l e t e l e v i s i o n systems a r e

i n ex is tence, e.g. QUBE i n Columbus, Ohio and t h e Tama New Town system

i n Japan. There have a l s o been a l i m i t e d number o f exper imental f i e l d

t r i a l s i n areas such as educat ion and remote shopping.

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Cable television services are available t o a much smaller extent i n

countries other t h a n the United States. These services are mainly

provided t o improve reception rather t h a n t o provide a large number o f

additional channels and services as in the U.S.

( i i ) Interactive (2ir based television:

Ceefax/Oracle: Tlhese United Kingdom systems transmit pages of a1 phanumeric

information through the a i r t o modified TV sets.

the information required.

systems covering most of the U.K. A system of the same type (Antiope) i s

operational in France. Using a telephone as the return p a t h would permit

remote ordering for goods and services.

Prestel (Viewdata): -

U . K . Post Office. Customers can select information from d a t a banks for

display on TV type terminals,

than t h a t provided by the Ceefax/Oracle systems, because by dialing

different telephone numbers, different d a t a banks can be contacted.

Remote use of computers i s also possible with this system.

Home viewers can select

Both the BBC and the IBA provide similar

This i s a telephone based service available from the

The service provided i s fa r more extensive

The above U.K. systems have n o t been in commercial operation for long

and there i s no information available about their effects on travel.

Direct sate11 i t e t o home TV systems:

(COMSAT) has announced plans for a sate1 1 i te-to-home system which would

in i t i a l ly broadcast three channels of subscription programming t o residents

of the U.S. eastern time zone. I t i s estimated t h a t i t would take three

t o four years t o inaugurate service following approval by the Federal

The Communications Sate1 l i t e Corporation

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Communications Conimission,

t o areas without access t o high-capacity cable TV systems.

similar systems are being carried o u t i n Japan and Canada.

service similar to t h a t provided by Ceefax/Oracle systems in the U.K.

T h f s system would be particularly applicable

Tests of

A teletext

can be provided by direct s a t e l l i t e systems.

Educational TV: Special university level educational services are being

provided via normal TV channels in many countries (e.g. the U.K. Open

University).

( i i i ) Facsimile:

transparencies t o be transmitted over telephone lines.

can now be transmitted in 30 seconds although most commercially available

devices take longer.

i s growing rapidly ( a t a ra te o f 20-25 percent per annum i n the U.S.) .

However the terminals produced by different manufacturers are not

compatible.

Interactive services are not yet i n regular operation.

This permits copies of documents and sometimes

A4 size pages

Several terminal types are available and their use

Also, the quality o f documents transmitted i s inferior t o

Xerox.

system a t present.

To obtain Xerox type reproduction requires a broadband carr ier

The quality o f facsimile transmission i s reduced

where electro-mechanical exchanges are s t i l l in operation.

( i v ) Radiopaging:

functioning within a wide service area.

( v ) Mobile telephones:

developed countries.

the a i r waves b u t the development of short wave antennae ("cellular"

This i s a pocket sized alarm or message system

I t i s available in many countries.

These are commercially available in a number of

The user charge i s very high due t o overcrowding of

system) may soon overcome th i s problem.

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( v i ) New te lephone serv ices :

which c o u l d reduce t r a v e l a r e a v a i l a b l e i n t h e U.S. a t present .

example i s t h e pa ten ted ' t r a n s a c t i o n te lephone" which p e r m i t s l i m i t e d

f i n a n c i a l t r a n s a c t i o n s t o be c a r r i e d o u t remote ly . Touch-tone telephones

which a r e more expensive than d i a l te lephones ( p a r t l y due t o increased

maintenance c o s t s ) a r e r e q u i r e d f o r these serv ices .

( v i i ) Video-telephone: -c- This has n o t been a commercial success i n t h e U.S.

and i s no l o n g e r commerc ia l ly a v a i l a b l e , Transmission over w i r e p a i r

te lephone l i n e s has n o t proved s a t i s f a c t o r y f o r t h e American Telephone and

Telegraph Compan-ies (AT&T) "Picturephone" system.

( v i i i ) Te leconferenc ing: Conference c a l l te lephone s e r v i c e s a r e o f f e r e d

i n many c o u n t r i e s b u t a r e n o t g e n e r a l l y cons idered s a t i s f a c t o r y as a

s u b s t i t u t e f o r t r a v e l . o p e r a t i o n a l i n a number o f c o u n t r i e s and t h e i r use has been e x t e n s i v e l y

s tud ied . These systems r e q u i r e s p e c i a l l y equipped rooms f o r successfu l

use and usual l y i n c l ude graph ics and f a c s i m i 1 e t ransmi s s i ons capabi 1 i ty.

Teleconferenc ing can be d i v i d e d i n t o audio and v ideo systems.

systems may o r may n o t lave some means o f i d e n t i f y i n g i n d i v i d u a l speakers

and may have e l e c t r o n i c blackboards i n a d d i t i o n t o f a c s i m i l e t ransmiss ion .

Several p r i v a t e amd governmental t e l e c o n f e r e n c i n g networks a r e c u r r e n t l y

o p e r a t i o n a l i n t h e U.S. Both the U.K. C i v i l Serv ice and t h e U.S. General

Serv ices Admini s t r a t i o n ) Federal Government) opera te networks connect ing

e leven meet ings rooms i n e leven d i f f e r e n t c i t i e s . Audio t e l e c o n f e r e n c i n g

seems p a r t i c u l a r l y s u i t a b l e f o r i n s t r u c t i o n a l communications i n business,

government and edlucati on .

A number o f enhanced te lephone serv ices

An

More s o p h i s t i c a t e d te leconference networks a r e

Audio

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Video t e l e c o n f e r e n c i n g i s c o n s i d e r a b l y more expensive than audio

and r e q u i r e s f a r more c o s t l y s t u d i o s , consequent ly i t i s n o t w i d e l y used.

I n t h e U.S . a s e r v i c e a v a i l a b l e t o t h e p u b l i c i s p rov ided by AT&T between

conference centers i n twe lve c i t i e s (Picturephone Meet ing S e r v i c e ) and

a b r o a d l y s i m i l a r s e r v i c e ( C o n f r a v i s i o n ) i s p rov ided by t h e U.K. Post

O f f i c e between f i v e U.K. c i t i e s w i t h connect ions a l s o t o two c i t i e s i n

Sweden and two i n t h e Nether lands. These systems a r e monochromatic a t

p resent . No11 found t h a t v ideo conferenc ing i s used p r i m a r i l y f o r

committee type c o o r d i n a t i o n and i n f o r m a t i o n exchange a c t i v i t i e s ( 7 ) .

To da te t h e use o f t e l e c o n f e r e n c i n g has n o t been heavy and i s s t i l l

i n exper imenta l opera t ion .

a r e l i k e l y t o extend t h e i r p u b l i c a l l y a v a i l a b l e v ideo t e l e c o n f e r e n c i n g

However i t i s understood t h a t t h e AT&T Company

f a c i l i t i e s and t o a g g r e s s i v e l y market bo th t h e i r audio and v ideo systems.

The p r o v i s i o n o f c o l o u r t ransmiss ion appears l i k e l y i n f u t u r e v ideo

systems.

( i x ) Computer conferenc ing: A number o f exper imental systems a r e i n

o p e r a t i o n i n t h e U.S. (e.g. I n s t i t u t e f o r t h e F u t u r e ' s P lanet system)

however these systems a r e n o t seen as s i g n i f i c a n t a l t e r n a t i v e media f o r

t r a v e l s u b s t i t u t i o n .

( x ) Data t ransmiss ion : __rr_ Many c o u n t r i e s p r o v i d e s p e c i a l da ta t ransmiss ion

s e r v i c e s o r a l t e r n a t i v e l y p r i v a t e w i r e s can be used. The p r o v i s i o n of

d i g i t a l networks a r e under a c t i v e c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n many c o u n t r i e s .

-1 4-

The Convergence o f I n f o r m a t i o n and Telecommunication Techno1 ogies

The developments i n computer and i n te lecommunicat ion techno log ies

p r e v i o u s l y out1 i n e d represent major t e c h n i c a l advances.

t o t a l l y new i n f o r m a t i o n environment i s be ing c r e a t e d by t h e convergent

i n t e r a c t i o n o f b o t h these technologies.

and telecommunicat ion techno log ies a1 so p e r m i t s t h e r a p i d growth and

d i f f u s i o n o f many extended c y b e r n e t i c systems (e.g. t h e automat ic

c o n t r o l o f p roduc t ion , i n v e n t o r y and d i s t r i b u t i o n i n i n d u s t r y ) .

major impacts o f t h e r a d i c a l l y new i n f o r m a t i o n environment a r e expected

t o be f e l t i n developed c o u n t r i e s w i t h i n t h e n e x t twenty years.

p o s s i b l e range o f these impacts on d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s o f s o c i e t y a r e

d iscussed i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n ,

However, a

Th is convergence o f computer

The

The

E f f e c t s o f t h e Chamging I n f o r m a t i o n Environment on Soc ie ty

I n f o r m a t i o n amd knowledge a r e t h e bas ic resources upon which human

s u r v i v a l depends s i n c e a17 o t h e r resources depend on them f o r t h e i r

development.

ment would i n c l u d e a r e v a l u a t i o n and r e p e r c e p t i o n o f our resource range.

However t h e c e n t r a l s i g n i f i c a n c e o f these changes l i e s i n t h e proftaund

consequences for t h e s t r u c t u r e o f s o c i e t y i t s e l f and f o r i t s i n s t i t u t i o n s

and va lues (8, 9, 10).

i s t h e m o t i v a t i n g f o r c e o f o u r s o c i a l i n s t i t u t i o n s . The increased

dependence upon i n f o r m a t i o n as a major resource cou ld move s o c i e t y t o

p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l forms whose i n s t i t u t i o n s , government and va lue systems

a r e s t i l l open t o c o n j e c t u r e .

Poss ib le changes r e s u l t i n g f rom t h e new i n f o r m a t i o n e n v i r o n -

Compet i t ion f o r t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f scarce resources

A p o s t - i n d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y i s seen as be ing

-1 5-

organised around iinformation as contrasted t o an industrial society

organi sed primari 1 y around energy

Since inforrnzition/knowledge i s seen as the central resource o f the

post-industrial society towards which we are moving, the new information

environment may tend t o create new forms o f power (based on the access t o

v i ta l knowledge arid information) which will be vastly d i f fe ren t t o the

older forms based on physical control over fixed material assets .

Table 1 indicates some of the major character is t ics of t h i s new technology.

TABLE 1

Characterist ics of the New Information Technology (8)

. Exponential increase in the volume of information flow.

Time and distance no longer constraining upon communications.

. Global shrinkage.

. Decrease in "time cushion" betwen sociotechnical changes, t he i r impact and consequences.

. Increase in dependence upon information and communications services

. Growth of coimplexly 1 inked systems subtending basic societal services .

. Increased interdependence of previously autonomous ins t i tu t ions and services due t o feedback required for common information.

. A b r u p t changes in perception of sociophysical environment.

. Radical conceptual changes induced by increased information and communications

-1 6-

( a ) The individual : L

Impacts of the information environment on the individual range from

suggestions of increased surveillance and monitoring of personal data

"in the social in te res t" t o permitting increased personal growth and

development as a resu l t of more f lex ib le and equable access t o available

knowledge.

into information "haves" and "have nots". A fu l l discussion of these

possible impacts are outside the scope o f t h i s work,

( b ) Education :

Social problems may be caused by the division of society

The level arid quali ty of education largely determines the prosperity

of a nation or even the survival of human society.

complexity o f our present world, lack of education i s a form of

disenfranchisenierit.

s c i en t i f i c and technological agencies which demand a high degree o f

special ised knowledge for the i r continued functioning and development.

In the developing

I t i s a lso a world which i s being transformed by

Some specif ic changes in the educational process result ing from

changes in the information environment include (8) :

1. Widening1 of the age range of participants i n formal

education due t o the need for retraining and re-education

as knowledge increases rapidly in various f i e lds .

i s also a resu l t o f the redis t r ibut ion o f work and

le i sure as employment patterns s h i f t in society.

This

2 . Diffusioln of the educational process t o include ' real l i f e '

experience and extramural attainment; the blurring of

boundaries between educational and other ins t i tu t ions

(e.g. education and work).

-17-

3 . A major sh i f t i n emphasis from learning what i s known

t o learn-ing the means of a t t a i n i n g the necessary

know1 edge.

( c ) Culture:

The cultural changes introduced by the new information society may

be among the major changes in our future. Already multi-channel te le-

vision with international broadcasting o f entertainment, advertising,

etc. has lead t o more commonly shared cultural experiences. Paradoxically

the main development may be in the increased diversity and fragmentation

of cultural patterns resulting from the increase in options and choices

open t o each individual.

( d ) Business and management:

Many dilemma:; in the management of business and other insti tutions

in our societies results from the radical transformations in the l a s t

f i f t y t o a hundred years.

insti tutions and their stated goals and objectives are not i n accord

with changes which have already occurred in society.

in mass transportation are fa i l ing or requiring massive injections of

public funds for their maintenance.

pressure from consumer groups as consumers become better informed.

As a consequence, the models of many of our

For example services

Other operations are changing under

In the post-industrial society of the future i t has been suggested

(8) that "production industry" will begin t o decline as the major

motive force and wealth generating sector.

i t i s no longer socially innovative and no longer plays a prime role i n

Though technical ly innovat,ive

-18-

shaping the values and goals of society.

society emerges when industrial productivity can be sustained and

increased w i t h fewer productive workers.

force moves into the service sector - into managerial and administrative

functions, i n t o the knowledge industry of research and development,

finance, education, welfare and recreation. Work roles become more

diversified and 'less directly t ied t o economic productivity. The pro-

portion of the work force in the service sector i s used t o indicate

whether a countrJy has entered the post-industrial phase. Less than

25 percent of the work force in the United States i s now engaged in

primary production and only about 5 percent in agriculture. This i s

seen as clear evidence t h a t the U.S. has entered the post-industrial

phase.

i n industry and 31 percent engaged in agriculture, indicating t h a t

Ireland i s entering the post-industrial phase. The transition t o post-

industrial forms will entail a redefinition o f roles and values within

society, For example the socially useful deployment of human resources

may no longer be accommodated within the conventional j o b market.

The so-called post industrial

The majority of the labour

Corresponding values for the Republic of Ireland are 1 9 percent

Several general trends are discerned by McHale (8) :

( i ) changes i n the hierarchic nature o f management,

( i i ) a trend towards increased social awareness,

( i i i ) a trend towards the convergence of public and private

organi sations.

-1 9-

Many of the essential services in society - education, telecommunica-

t ions, transportation, information, health services, housing - have

developed beyond the economic provision possible by private enterprise.

They are increasingly provided by the government o r heavily subsidised

by public funds.

in order t o create the new social services demanded by society in

future . ( e ) Polit ics:

Changes in the concept of prof i tabi l i ty may be necessary

I n an information dependent society, power tends t o be associated

with knowledge and information.

the “time-cusion” between the perception of problems and the entry int,o

pub1 i c dialogue hi3S dramatically decreased. Also as information systems

become larger the;y become less confidential . These two factors suggest

that poli t ical processes may become more open in future unless the news

media i s controlled by a particular g roup or ideology.

consequence of the new information society could be the emergency of

issue oriented pol i t ics leading t o a less cohesive form of government.

Due t o the swift diffusion of information,

A further

McHale (8) stresses the need for better social indicators t o

provide early warning systems which would allow the long range planning

now considered essential for society.

and telecommunications technologies could greatly ass i s t th i s need by

the extensive use o f computer simulation. However such simulation i s

of limited value until the relationships between the different sub-sy( .; t ems

of our society are better understood.

which would provide u p t o date s t a t i s t i c s i s also stressed.

Potentially the new information

The need for real time systems

-20-

I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r T r a n s p o r t a t i o n

Obvious ly tihe changing i n f o r m a t i o n environment w i 11 have profound

imp1 i c a t i o n s f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p lanning.

be an inc rease i n t h e use o f computer s i m u l a t i o n f o r i n v e s t i g a t i n g

changes i n t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system parameters.

changes (e.g. i n one-way networks) a r e be ing s imu la ted be fore implementa-

t i o n i n many c i t i e s today. A lso t h e new i n f o r m a t i o n systems would p e r m i t

more d i r e c t c i t i z e n p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n p lann ing dec is ions . A t t h e l o c a l

community l e v e l such increased p a r t i c i p a t i o n c o u l d be g r e a t l y enhanced

by i n t e r a c t i v e c a b l e t e l e v i s i o n systems.

There w i l l

Proposed t r a f f i c system

One s p e c i f i c r e s u l t o f the e l e c t r o n i c l i n k a g e o f i n d i v i d u a l s ,

households and communit ies has been t h e concept o f t h e " w i r e d c i t y "

( t h e r e a r e a1 ready many p r o f e s s i o n a l s such as d o c t o r s "w i red" t o t h e i r

workplaces w i t h a pocket s i g n a l l i n g dev ice o r a mob i le te lephone) .

T h i s concept c o u l d p r o v i d e an i n f o r m a t i o n c a p a b i l i t y which c o u l d d i s p l a c e

many o f t h e temporal and d i s t a n c e c o n s t r a i n t s which have l e d t o s p e c i f i c

growth p a t t e r n s iin urban and suburban communit ies.

( t o work, shop, en ter ta inment , e t c . ) a r e a l ready , i n theory, o b s o l e t e

s i n c e telecommunicat ions can be s u b s t i t u t e d f o r v a r i o u s r o u t i n e purposes.

"More s i g n i f i c a n t l y , p a t t e r n s o f t r a n s p o r t w i l l change as people and

i n d u s t r i e s ( p a r t i i c u l a r l y I knowledge' i n d u s t r i e s ) a r e f r e e d by t h e

a v a i l a b i l i t y o f e l e c t r o n i c i n f o r m a t i o n t o determine t h e i r home and o f f i c e

l o c a t i o n by o t h e r requi rements than face- to - face in te rchange o f i n f o r m a t i o n .

If t h e 'home o f f i i c e ' does i n f a c t become widespread, t h e r e would be

s i g n i f i c a n t m o d i f i c a t i o n s t o t h e r a d i a l p a t t e r n s o f a l a r g e c i t y " (11)

(however, a number o f r e c e n t s t u d i e s have s t ressed t h e importance p laced

Many o f these p a t t e r n s

-21-

on face-to-face meetings by business executives).

computerisation o f routine tasks i n p roduct ion , inventory and d i s t r i -

bution control will1 enable more businesses t o locate themselves more

f lexibi ly w i t h o u t loss o f service quality t o customers.

The increased

A large scale research e f for t has been made i n Japan (The Plan for

the Information Society:

recommends t h a t the Japanese government prepare an integrated plan for

the development o f an information society within the next twenty years.

This plan which ma.y be the forerunner of other similar national plans,

notes that commercial development o f the new information environment

may delay i t s extension t o human services such as education and

medicine.

A National Goal Towards Year 2000) which

-22-

A REVIEbJ OF TRANSPORTATION/TELECOMMUNICATION STUDIES

General Comments

Studies d u r i n g t h e l a s t t e n years i n t o t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between

t r a n s p o r t a t i o n arid te lecommunicat ions have focussed on t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n

o f t r a v e l by new forms o f te lecommunicat ions.

have r e s u l t e d f rom t h e e s c a l a t i o n o f energy c o s t s s i n c e 1973.

t h e t r a v e l sav ing o p p o r t u n i t i e s o f advanced telecommunicat ion had

a t t r a c t e d t h e a t t e n t i o n o f researchers s i n c e t h e e a r l y 1960's .

has reviewed t h i s e a r l y l i t e r a t u r e .

reviewed by a number o f au thors p r i m a r i l y i n o r d e r t o q u a n t i f y p o t e n t i a l

energy savings ( l I3 , 14, 15) .

Many o f these s t u d i e s

However,

T y l e r (12)

More r e c e n t s t u d i e s have been

Most o f t h e 1 i t e r a t u r e on transportation/telecommunications i n t e r -

a c t i o n s has been l a r g e l y c o n j e c t u r a l and l i t t l e consensus o f o p i n i o n has

emerged. Th is , t o a l a r g e ex ten t , i s because o f t h e r e l a t i v e l y few

c o n t r o l l e d f i e l d s t u d i e s which have been undertaken u s i n g new media.

U n t i l such telecommunicat ions a r e more w i d e l y a v a i l a b l e i t i s u n l i k e l y

t h a t more c o n f i d e n t p r e d i c t i o n s can be made.

p a r t i a l d e r e g u l a t i o n o f te lecommunicat ions i n t h e U.S. , the major

producers o f new telecommunicat ions media and s e r v i c e s a r e n o t r e l e a s i n g

i n f o r m a t i o n on s t u d i e s undertaken.

major s u p p l i e r o f U.S. te lecommunicat ions pub l ished a r t i c l e s on new media

use.

techno log ies n e i t h e r AT&T nor i t s compet i to rs ( f rom t h e computer i n d u s t r y )

have r e p o r t e d on t h e use o f new telecommunicat ions media.

As a r e s u l t o f t h e r e c e n t

P r e v i o u s l y t h e AT&T Company, t h e

However, wii t h t h e convergence o f te lecommunicat ions and computer

-23-

The substitution ( o r diversion) of transportation for te le-

communications has been the theme for most studies t o date. Extensive

psychological and experimental studies carried ou t by the U. K.

Communications Study Group have indicated t h a t bo th a u d i o and video

teleconferencing can substi tute effectively for certain types of

business meetings (16) . I t has even been shown t h a t bargaining i s

more effective by audio teleconference under certain circumstances ( 1 7 ) . I t i s not c lear , however, what combination of circumstances will cause

people t o substi tnte telecommunications for transportation.

New telecommunications media are 1 i kely t o generate additional

travel (or longer t r i p lengths) for some t r i p purposes.

been generally concluded by researchers t h a t there will be a net

substitution of telecommunications for travel ( 1 2 ) . As yet there i s

l i t t l e or no hard evidence t o substantiate th i s conclusion. Furthermore

as people become inore involved with information processing there should

be a large increase i n communications of a l l types.

diversion of travel occurs, i t i s suggested that the total volume of

travel i s unlikely t o be reduced t o any large extent.

changes i n travel patterns are l ikely t o occur particularly due t o

changes in business locations and t o an increasing amount of remote

work ( a t home or in neighbourhood work centers).

However i t has

Even i f substantial

However radical

-24-

Typeology o f Studies -

T y l e r (15 ) has suggested t h a t transportation/telecommunications

s t u d i e s be d i v i d e d as f o l l o w s :

( i ) The use o f i n t u i t i v e judgement:

o f t r a v e l stat is1: ics.

Th is methodology i n v o l v e s t h e use

The number o f t r i p s f o r each t r i p purpose and

t h e magnitude o f the r e s u l t i n g t r a v e l i s ascer ta ined. I n t u i t i v e es t imates

a r e then made o f the p r o p o r t i o n o f each t r i p ca tegory which appears

amenable t o d i v e r s i o n by te lecommunicat ions.

T h i s type 01' s tudy i s u s e f u l f o r o r d e r o f magnitude es t imates o f

t h e p o t e n t i a l s u b s t i t u t i o n o f e x i s t i n g t r a v e l . However, t h e use o f

aggregate s t a t i s t i c s i s quest ioned s i n c e t r a v e l behaviour v a r i e s w i d e l y

between i n d i v i d u a l s .

( i i ) Surveys w i t h h y p o t h e t i c a l choices: A p a r t i c u l a r ca tegory o f

t r a v e l l e r (e.g. ' interurban business t r a v e l l e r ) i s i d e n t i f i e d and surveyed.

Respondents a r e presented w i t h a range o f h y p o t h e t i c a l te lecommunicat ions

o p t i o n s and asked whether they would s u b s t i t u t e te lecommunicat ions f o r

t h e s p e c i f i c t r i p they a r e under tak ing. An example i s t h e w e l l known

B e l l Canada study (18) .

Th is t y p e 01' study appears more r e a l i s t i c than t y p e ( i ) s i n c e i t

i n v o l v e s t h e sub;jective response o f t r a v e l l e r s on s p e c i f i c t r i p s .

ever s i n c e t h e telecommunicat ions o p t i o n s be ing presented a r e n o t

c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e and respondents a r e n o t f a m i l i a r w i t h t h e i r use, i t

i s d i f f i c u l t t o assess the r e l i a b i l i t y o f t h e r e s u l t s .

( i i i ) F i e l d t r i a l s : -

How-

The use o f o p e r a t i o n a l o r exper imenta l te lecommunicat ions systems

-25-

i s measured. Users a re questioned on t h e i r preferences, types o f

communication a c t - i v i t y , frequency o f use, e tc . Studies o f t h i s type

undertaken t o date i nc lude the NASA Teleconferencing P i l o t P ro jec t (19) ,

the AT&T's Picturephone Meeting Service (20) and the U.K. Conf rav is ion

t r i a l s (21) .

The r e s u l t s lo f t h i s type o f study prov ide the most use fu l in fo rmat ion

a v a i l a b l e on the f u t u r e use o f new telecommun

s tud ies undertaken t o date have been very l i m

( i v ) Model b u i l d i n g us ing survey data: This

s t a t i s t i c s t o b u i l d behavioural demand models

ca t ions . However the

t e d i n extent .

nvolves us ing survey

which would est imate the

p ropor t i on o f t r i p s d i v e r t e d and generated by telecommunications.

S i g n i f i c a n t work has been done on i n v e s t i g a t i n g the behavioural r e f a -

t i o n s h i p invo lved (main ly by t h e U.K. Communications Study Group) and

a model o f t h i s type, f o r t r a v e l t o business meetings, has been b u i l t

and c a l i b r a t e d us ing U.K. data (12). However, the v a l i d i t y o f t h i s

model has y e t t o be demonstrated and i t i s unable t o s imulate t r a v e l

generat ion e f f e c t s .

c a l i b r a t i o n data f o r models o f o the r t r i p purposes r e s t r i c t s the use o f

such models a t present.

Because o f the 1 i m i t e d number o f advanced telecommunications systems

The d i f f i c u l t y and cos t o f ob ta in ing r e l i a b l e

i n operat ion, i t i s suggested t h a t surveys which would combine i n t u i t i v e

judgement (i) and hypothe t ica l choices ( i i ) would prov ide more r e a l i s t i c

i n fo rma t ion on 1 -i k e l y f u t u r e telecommunications/travel behaviour. Thus , given the d e t a i l e d t r i p purpose by the survey respondent, researchers

could est imate (us ing the l i m i t e d evidence from f i e l d t r i a l s ( i i i ) )

-26-

whether t h a t t r i p could be adequately substituted.

the potential subst i tutabi l i ty (upper bound) o f t h a t t r i p type, while i t

i s suggested t h a t the respondants hypothetical choice would tend t o

indicate the lower bound o f substitution.

This would indicate

A Review o f Field Studies

For transportation planning purposes t r ips are commonly divided into

the following categories:

a . Interurban passenger ( i ) Business

( i i ) Other

b. Urban passenger - ( i ) Commuting

( i i ) Shopping

( i i i ) Edu ca t i ona 1

( i v ) Social and recreational

( v ) Personal business

( v i ) Business ( in course of work)

c . Freight movement -

To examine the impact of new telecommunications media on transportation

the above categories are used because there i s some evidence t h a t travel

substitution by telecommunications varies with trip length.

not always easy to distinguish between urban and interurban t r ips i n

large metropolitan1 areas. The principal results o f the major f ie ld studies

reported in the l i t e ra ture are summarised i n the following pages.

However i t i s

-27-

Interurban passenger travel

The business sector of the economy i s l ikely t o be the f i r s t t o

benefit from new telecommunications media and a number of studies i n t o

the potential effects o f such media on interurban business travel have

been undertaken. No f ie ld studies on other interurban t r ip categories

have been found in the l i t e ra ture .

In 1973 the Business Planning Group o f Bell Canada (18) questioned

automobile, t ra in and plane business travellers on four major interci ty

corridors i n Canada.

have taken the i r current t r i p had a number of al ternative telecommunications

media been available.

percent o f the business travellers sampled would no t have taken their

current t r i p had an acceptable communications alternative been available"

(18) . Information on each t ravel ler was also obtained in order t o

determine whether "substi tutersl' could be differentiated from "non-substi tuters" .

Survey respondents were asked whether they would

The principal result was t h a t "approximately 20

However the study concluded t h a t "substituters could not be systematically

differentiated from non-substituters by any of the variables measured i n

the study'' (18).

A second major study was t h a t carried o u t under the auspices of the

European Telecommunications Administrations ( C E P T ) . Data on business

meetings and travel costs were collected i n eight European countries ( 2 2 ) .

A behavioral demand model developed by the U.K. Post Office and others

was used t o estimate the proport ion of those t r ips which would be

substituted by audio and video teleconferencing (23).

Tyler ( 1 2 ) reported t h a t , for estimated 1985 costs, 35 percent of t r ips

Based on U.K. data

-28-

t o business meet ings would be s u b s t i t u t e d by an audio t e l e c o n f e r e n c i n g

system and t h a t an a d d i t i o n a l 1 percent would be s u b s t i t u t e d by a v ideo

system.

e x i s t i n g t r i p s would be s u b s t i t u t e d by an aud io system and an a d d i t i o n a l

3 percent by v ideo.

was p r e d i c t e d as 41 percent aud io and a f u r t h e r 9 percent v ideo.

For t h e y e a r 2000 i t was est imated t h a t 37 percent o f t h e

The upper bound o f t r a v e l d i v e r s i o n l i k e l y i n f u t u r e

The r e s u l t s of t h e U e K e Post Office/CEPT study f o r t r a v e l t o business

meetings cannot be d i r e c t l y compared w i t h t h e B e l l Canada study (18)

s i n c e t h e l a t t e r i n v o l v e d a l l types o f business t r a v e l . T y l e r es t imated

t h a t a 36 percent r e d u c t i o n i n t r a v e l t o business meet ings i n t h e U.K.

was e q u i v a l e n t t o a 10 t o 15 percent r e d u c t i o n i n a l l business t r a v e l (12) .

Assuming t h e same p r o p o r t i o n o f meeting/non-meeting business t r a v e l f o r

t h e upper bound t r a v e l d i v e r s i o n p r e d i c t e d by t h e CEPT study would

i n d i c a t e t h a t 17-20 percent o f a l l business t r a v e l would be s u b s t i t u t e d .

T h i s p r o p o r t i o n i s s i m i l a r t o t h a t es t imated i n t h e B e l l Canada study.

A number o f e a r l i e r major s t u d i e s i n t o t h e s u b s t i t u t a b i l i t y o f

i n t e r u r b a n business t r a v e l were c a r r i e d o u t by t h e UmK. Communications

Study Group (16).

group i t i s assumed t o supersede t h a t work.

Since t h e CEPT model was p a r t l y developed by t h i s

However i t i s i n t e r e s t i n g

t o no te t h a t t h e "1975 b e s t es t imate" f o r s u b s t i t u t a b i l i t y o f e x i s t i n g

business meetings was 43 percent by aud io media and a f u r t h e r 7 percent

by v ideo (16).

-29-

Urban passenger t r a v e l

The s u b s t i t u t i o n o f urban passenger t r a v e l i n v o l v e s g r e a t e r changes

i n e s t a b l i s h e d work and 1 i v i n g p r a c t i c e s than t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n o f i n t e r -

urban t r a v e l . ( i ) Commuting: Developments i n te lecommunicat ions c o u l d i n f l u e n c e t h e

l o c a t i o n o f o f f i c e employment and a l s o journeys t o work by p e r m i t t i n g

employees t o work a l l or p a r t o f t h e t ime a t home o r a t neighborhood

work c e n t e r s ( 2 4 ) , Since commuting accounts f o r a h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f a l l

auto v e h i c l e k i lo rne t res wor ldwide (about 34 percent i n t h e U.S. ( 2 5 ) ) , a

number o f s t u d i e s have i n v e s t i g a t e d t h e d i r e c t d i v e r s i o n o f e x i s t i n g

work t r i p s t o te lecommunicat ions. However most o f these s t u d i e s have been

c a r r i e d o u t a t t h e aggregate l e v e l and have been es t imates o f s u b s t i t u t a b i l i t y

r a t h e r than es t imates o f the l i k e l y l e v e l o f s u b s t i t u t i o n . A l l s t u d i e s

reviewed a r e t h e " i n t u i t i v e judgement" type.

I n a case stludy o f t h e San Francisco Bay Area, Jones (26 ) d i v i d e d

Then t r a v e l j o b s i n t o s u b s t i t l u t a b l e and n o n - s u b s t i t u t a b l e ca tegor ies .

da ta was used t o determine t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f j o b s which c o u l d be performed

a t home o r a t remote work l o c a t i o n s . To o b t a i n b e t t e r es t imates o f l i k e l y

s u b s t i t u t i o n , man,y r o u t i n e c l e r i c a l j o b s were n o t cons idered s u b s t i t u t a b l e

as t h e y d i d n o t j u s t i f y t h e e x t r a te lecommunicat ions c o s t s i n c u r r e d by

work ing a t home. The major c o n c l u s i o n was t h a t 22 percent o f commuter

t r a v e l i n t h e Bay Area d u r i n g t h e morning r u s h hour c o u l d be s u b s t i t u t e d

by te lecommunicat ions.

t h e e q u i v a l e n t va lue was 31 percent and f o r t r i p s t e r m i n a t i n g i n San

F r a n c i s c o ' s c e n t r a l business d i s t r i c t , 47 percent s u b s t i t u t a b l e ( 2 6 ) .

For t r i p s t e r m i n a t i n g i n t h e c i t y o f San Franc isco

-30-

T y l e r quotes s i m i l a r work by Te ruak i Ohara i n Japan which " i m p l i e s a

b r o a d l y s i m i l a r r e s u l t " f o r o v e r a l l s u b s t i t u t i o n o f home-work t r a v e l (12 ) .

The p r o p o r t i o n o f U.K. j o b s which m i g h t be home based was es t ima ted

by Glover (27) t o v a r y f rom 20 pe rcen t (1971) t o 26 pe rcen t (1991).

Us ing G l o v e r ' s employment c r i t e r i a , T y l e r es t ima ted t h a t 35 t o 40 pe rcen t

o f j ou rneys t o work i n C e n t r a l London were " o f k i n d s t h a t m i g h t u l t i m a t e l y

be s u b s t i t u t e d by telecommunicat ion," assuming no change i n employment

p a t t e r n s (12) .

o b t a i n e d f o r San F ranc isco (26 ) which i m p l i e s t h a t t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r

remote work ing i s s i m i l a r i n developed c o u n t r i e s .

( i i ) Shopping t r i p s : - f o r a l l shopping t r i p s p rov ided t h a t home d e l i v e r y systems a r e a v a i l a b l e .

Two-way i n f o r m a t i o n and f i n a n c e t r a n s f e r s between home and shop t e r m i n a l s

would e l i m i n a t e t h e need f o r t h e shopper t o a t t e n d i n person.

suggested t h a t 50 pe rcen t o f a l l shopping t r i p s were p o t e n t i a l l y

s u b s t i t u t a b l e (28) b u t t h i s e s t i m a t e does n o t appear t o have been based

on a s p e c i f i c f i e l d t r i a l .

f rom most c o u n t r i e s except f o r l a r g e r household i tems.

shown t h a t shopping i s en joyed as a s p e c i a l occas ion by many people ( i n

p a r t i c u l a r non-workers) and i n d i v i d u a l s have expressed s t r o n g p r e f e r e n c e

f o r t h e personal s e l e c t i o n o f goods (29) .

o f survey respondents i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e y would l i k e t o e l i m i n a t e r o u t i n e

purchases such as g roce ry shopping (29 ) .

p o s s i b i l i t i e s has been completed by Edwards (30).

s t u d i e s appear t o have been undertaken on t h e e f f e c t s o f new telecommunica-

t i o n s media on shopping t r i p s .

These U.K. r e s u l t s a r e a l s o v e r y s i m i l a r t o those

I n t h e o r y new telecommunicat ions c o u l d s u b s t i t u t e

M i t c h e l

However home d e l i v e r y has a lmost disappeared

A l s o research has

However a s i g n i f i c a n t p r o p o r t i o n

A r e v i e w o f home shopping

No s u b s t a n t i v e f i e l d

-31 -

( i i i ) Educational t r i p s :

education has been widely studied (31, 32, 33) b u t l i t t l e information

i s available on the implications for educational related t rave l .

Theoretically a l l educational t r i p s apart from those involving special ised

equipment could be diverted t o telecommunications.

judgement type study estimated t h a t 25 percent of "education-civic'' t r i p s

were potentially subst i tutable (28)

probably remain unchanged because of the need for special ised supervision

and social interaction. As a consequence of the new information environ-

ment, a f a r greater proportion o f the future adult population will be

involved i n education.

communications are l ike ly t o be used t o supplement the existing educational

system by permitting more extensive and new part time adul t educational

services.

The impact o f new telecommunications media on

An ea r l i e r i n tu i t i ve

However school t r i p patterns will

The opportunities offered by advanced te le -

Grey (34) quotes a t t i tud ina l surveys on the use of a remote

instructional television system as evidence of the effectiveness o f

telecommunications t o subst i tute for t ravel . However i f such remote

f a c i l i t i e s were mot available i t i s not c lear tha t the students involved

would have undertaken t h e i r courses.

communications will probably increase travel b u t t o a limited extent ( 1 2 ) .

( i v ) Social and recreational t r i p s : Videophone services could, in theory,

subst i tute for many v i s i t s t o friends and re la t ives .

telephone (35 ) , the videophone could instead r e su l t i n increased travel

since regular personal contact could be maintained with a larger c i r c l e

of friends.

by new media seem l ikely t o lead towards increased t ravel .

Tyler suggests tha t new te le -

However, as for the

Similarly bet ter information on le i sure opportunities provided

No f i e ld

-32-

studies into the implications o f new telecommunications f o r recreational

travel appear i n the l i t e ra ture although there have been many speculative

studies into the social impact o f telecommunications. Mitchel estimated

that only 5 percent of existing socio-recreational t r i p s were potentia.lly

substitutable (28).

substi tute for some recreational t r i p s in an era of increasing travel

New cable te levis ion/satel l i te services could

costs and energy shortages since research has shown t h a t recreat

t r i p s are likely t o be restricted before other t r i p types (36).

( v ) Personal business t r ips : Personal or family business t r i p s

v i s i t s t o health care centres, banks, insurance companies, etc.

onal

ncl ude

I t has

been suggested that such t r ip s offer great potential for substitution ( 2 4 ) .

Some limited f ie ld studies carried o u t in Ireland have indicated t h a t people

would l ike t o eliminate many o f these t r ips (36) . The promotion o f

electronic fund transfer by banks in many countries should divert some

personal business travel.

o f advanced telec,ommunications i n promoting health care (37, 38) b u t

l i t t l e information i s available on transportation inipl ications.

A number o f studies have investigated the use

On

average i t seems t h a t there would be a small net increase in travel

because of the extended health services possible.

( v i ) Urban business travel:

portion of urban travel ( 5 4 0 % ) b u t i t i s usually concentrated i n

Business travel comprises only a small pro-

congested downtown areas. As previously noted new telecommunications

media are being introduced f i r s t t o the business sector of the economy,

and many studies have investigated the possible implications for business

travel. Nost o f these studies do n o t distinguish between urban and

-33-

interurban travel i n published reports.

has indicated t h a t t r i p length i s an important determinant o f potential

travel subst i tutabi l i ty . About 30% of a l l business t r i p s in Cork, Ireland

were considered t o be substitutable by audio telecommunications compared

with only a negligible proportion o f interurban t r ips .

U.K. Communications Study Group ( 2 2 ) have a1 so indicated t h a t the potential

travel substitution i s noticeably lower for meetings which are over

typical inter-city distances.

g roup does not appear t o include distance as an important substitution

parameter and the Communication Study Group's type a1 location estimates

of trip subst i tutabi l i ty seem t o refer t o b o t h urban and interurban

travel (16) . However the LRS/CEPT model (described previously i n the

section o f this report on interurban t ravel) includes the effect of

distance as a travel cost.

However a study i n Ireland (39)

Surveys by the

However most of the published work of th i s

Studies on u r b a n business travel i n the U.S. exhibit a wide v a r i a t i o n

i n subst i tutabi l i ty estimates.

approximately 73% o f a l l business contacts could be substituted by

telecommunications provided effective systems "are made available a t prices

participants are willing t o pay" (40) . Another study gathered evidence

t o suggest t h a t telecommunications could substitute for 20 t o 60 percent

o f local business travel (41 ) .

A Pittsburgh study suggested t h a t

Overall substitution of urban travel: A number of general studies have

attempted t o estimated the potential substitution of urban travel by

telecommunications (14 , 4 2 , 43) . Typically these studies divided urban

-34-

t r a v e l by t r i p purpose and then ' 'est imated' ' t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f " s u b s t i -

t u t a b l e " t r i p s .

a r b i t r a r i n e s s o f t h e va lues chosen. Values o f urban t r a v e l s u b s t i t u t a b i l i t y

ob ta ined v a r i e d f rom 11 t o 22 percent o f t r i p s and f rom 14 t o 22 percent

o f urban v e h i c l e - k i l o m e t r e s .

La thy who est imated a 16 percent s u b s t i t u t a b i l i t y o f urban v e h i c l e

k i l o m e t r e s (14) .

evidence i s a v a i l a b l e on t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n p o t e n t i a l o f most t r i p purpose

c a t e g o r i e s and a d d i t i o n a l f i e l d s t u d i e s a r e r e q u i r e d be fore much credence

can be p laced on o v e r a l l es t imates o f urban t r a v e l s u b s t i t u t i o n .

l h e usefu lness o f these s t u d i e s i s l i m i t e d by t h e

The most r e c e n t s tudy appears t o be t h a t o f

However i t i s obvious f rom t h i s rev iew t h a t l i t t l e hard

F r e i g h t movement

The p o t e n t i a l use o f advanced telecommunicat ions media t o improve

t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f f r e i g h t systems has been e x t e n s i v e l y s t u d i e d (44, 45)

and i s n o t cons idered i n t h i s r e p o r t .

o f t h e impact o f advanced telecommunicat ions on f r e i g h t movement have

been r e p o r t e d e i t h e r f o r urban o r i n t e r u r b a n areas.

t h a t t h e i n t e n s i t y o f business c o n t a c t s f a l l o f f r a p i d l y w i t h d i s t a n c e

(22, 39) .

reduce t h e " f r i c t i o n o f d is tance" f o r business communications thus

widening market areas w i t h consequent increases i n abso lu te f r e i g h t

q u a n t i t i e s (12) .

m i s s i o n o f newspapers, m a i l , computer data, e t c . , d i r e c t l y t o remote

t e r m i n a l s . U.S. s t u d i e s i n t o p o t e n t i a l m a i l s u b s t i t u t i o n have r e s u l t e d

i n a wide range o f o v e r a l l d i v e r s i o n est imates (13-60%) i n d i c a t i n g t h a t

Otherwise few q u a n t i t a t i v e es t imates

Surveys have shown

T y l e r has suggested t h a t advanced telecommunicat ions c o u l d

One o f the most s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s may be t h e t r a n s -

-35-

the relationship involved i s not precisely understood. One recent U.S.

survey concluded that ''some 30 percent o r more o f f i r s t class mail can

be handled by some form of electronic fund transfer technique" (46) .

Summary of f ie ld study results

Table 2 summiwises the available t r i p substitution estimates which

are based on f ie ld evidence.

no firm evidence i s available and even for those t r i p purposes which

have been studied the evidence i s limited.

carried ou t in different countries show surprisingly l i t t l e variation i n

the results obtained.

I t i s clear that for most t r ip purposes

Comparisons of studies

-36-

TABLE 2

Summary o f Trip Substitution Estimates

Trip Substitutability purpose est ima te I 1 Interurban business

travel

Interurban leisure travel

Urban commuting

shopping

educational

socio/ recreational

personal business

business

17-20% U.K. 20% Canada (18)

22% U.S. (26)

20-26% U.K. (27)

CBD- only:

47% U.S. (26)

35-40% U.K. (12)

73% U.S. (40)

20-60% U.S. (41)

30% Ireland (39)

13-60% total U.S. mail volume ( )

30% U.S. First I

Class Mail (46) 1

Substitution est i ma te

I

10-15% U.K. (1 2)

-37-

Unresolved Issues:: More or Less Travel?

Developments i n telecommunications can affect b o t h transportation

The use of telecommunications supply and demand in a variety of ways.

t o improve the supply of transportation (more eff ic ient management of

assets

and i s relatively well understood (44, 45, 47) . Consequently i t i s n o t

considered in this report.

tions on transportation demand are no t a t a17 clear.

hard evidence expert opinion varies widely; from those who expect

substantial reductions i n travel demand (48) t o those who expect t h a t new

telecommunications will result in additional travel (49) . Better te le-

communications faci 1 i t i e s contacts with a greater number of people and

also a t greater distances. This would lead t o an increase i n travel

unless a substantial amount of travel substitution also occurs or

a1 ternatively could a1 t e r existing travel patterns substantially.

increased route capacity, etc. ) has been extensively studied

However the 1 ikely effects of telecommunica-

In the absence of

Tyler distinguishes three kinds o f effects - the diversion of

communication flows (often termed substitution) , the generation of

stimulation of demand and the modification of demand for transportation.

The studies reviewed in this report almost a l l concern the diversion of

existing travel.

diversion can be reached u n t i 1 extensive tes t s between competing communica-

tions media are carried ou t . Very l i t t l e substantive evidence i s available

on generated travel a1 t h o u g h Tyler quotes some anecdotal accounts from

f ie ld t r i a l s in health care suggesting large effects ( 1 2 ) .

that two U.S. teleconference systems (NASA and DOW) resulted in reduced

No firm conclusions on the probable future amount of

Lathey s ta tes

-38-

amounts of business travel per employee (14) . However a more recent report

on one of these systems concluded t h a t the employees involved did not

reduce their overall travel budget expenditure ; instead the money saved

on teleconference diverted meetings had been redirected towards other

travel (50) . This tends t o support time budget concepts, viz. t h a t a

constant amount o f time per day i s allocated t o travel by each individual

(the use o f travel time budgets i s examined in Appendix A ) . Tyler argues

that "a business communicator i s unlikely t o spend a l l the time he gains

by substituting telecommunications for travel, in additional communication

- l e t alone spend a71 o f i t i n the mode of communication whose relat ive

attractiveness has been reduced by telecommunications" (1 2 ) . Consequently

he suggests t h a t i n general travel generation effects will be small arid

this view i s supported by Harkness (51) although the l a t t e r points o u t

t h a t th i s may not be true for a l l classes o f t r ips .

evidence i s available t o ei ther confirm or deny these generation predictions

and i t i s equally valid t o argue t h a t the expected increase in communications

of a l l types resulting from the new information environment will resul t

in substantial travel increases.

However no real

Finally, i t i s generally agreed t h a t new telecommunications devices

will permit modifications of travel patterns and applications which are

not evident a t present and these may utlimately have f o r greater impact

on transportation than diversion or generation effects.

-39-

THE IMPACT OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS ON TRANSPORTATION AND PLANNING

The consequences of changes i n the relationship between transpor-

tation and telecommunications have been comprehensively assessed in a

major study carried o u t a t Stanford Research Inst i tute (SRI) by Harkness

e t a? . ( 5 1 ) . The stated objective o f this study was “ t o comprehensively

identify and assess the physical economic, social environmental and

quality-of-life c:onsequences t h a t may result from a sh i f t i n the

i n terac t i on s between tel ecommun i cat i ons and t ransporta t i on. I ’ No

comparable analysis has been carried o u t elsewhere a1 t h o u g h a number of

less extensive investigations have been undertaken (53).

To assess the impact of new telecommunications media on society

the Stanford Research Inst i tute (SRI) study postulated a range of

plausible future scenarios induced by predicted transportation/tele-

communications interactions (51 ) . were then investigated.

assuming 20 percent substitution of a l l interurban business t r i p s by

teleconferencing a n d the second arb i t ra r i ly assuming an equal increase-

in business travel.

based on the projected industry forecasts of a i r travel growth t o the

year 2000.

and third scenarios - l i t t l e substantive work was done on the second

since i t s occurrenice was considered unlikely by those involved i n the

study.

relocation from central business d i s t r i c t s t o the suburbs - ( i ) decentra-

l ization t o a few s a t e l l i t e centers and ( i i ) random decentralization.

The consequences of these scenarios

Three interurban scenarios were developed, one

These two scenarios were compared with a third

The SRI study concentrated on comparisons between the f i r s t

Four urban scenarios were developed, two dealing with office

-40-

I t was also assumed that audio and video teleconferencing would replace

about 20 percent of local business trips t h a t today would require travel.

The other two u rban scenarios were more radical i n concept. One assumed

t h a t a substantial proportion of office workers would work a t home 95

percent o f the time and the other assumed they would work i n neighbourhood

work centers. Thle development of the above scenarios was based on a

1 arge number of detailed background reports.

From the review o f the transportation/telecommunications studies

ear l ie r in this work, i t appears t h a t the substitution values and

scenarios chosen for the SRI study are r ea l i s t i c -

the use of new telecommunications i n different countries i s quite similar.

Consequently the SRI conclusions may be broadly applicable elsewhere-

The principa.1 conclusions of the SRI study and other evidence on

A l s o i t appears t h a t

the impacts o f telecommunications on transportation and planning are

next considered.

of Ireland are then briefly discussed.

The l ikely implications for the U - K . and the Republic

Transportation System Impacts

The SRI study concluded t h a t 20 percent substitution of interurban

business travel by telecommunications would seriously affect the viabi l i ty

of existing U.S. interci ty a i r l ine travel.

a i rc raf t would also be reduced since they cater primarily for business

people and others whose time i s considered valuable or who must meet

quickly in c r i s i s situations.

be reduced in some cases.

The need for V/STOL and SST

The necessity for airport expansions would

Domestic a i r services in the U.K. and Ireland

-41 -

should also be affected by new telecommunications b u t , due t o the shorter

distances involveci, the air l ines are not a s heavily dependent on domestic

business travel.

should be seriously affected i f a similar propor t ion of international

travel i s substituted. However 1 imited evidence suggests t h a t international

travel i s less l ikely t o be substituted by telecommunications (39) .

The viabi l i ty of European services from b o t h countries

The viabilit,y o f interurban train services i n the U.K. and Ireland

would probably be seriously affected by telecommunications substitution -

especially the high speed services being developed in the U.K.

where wideband (video) telecommunications are used as a substi tute for

ra i l t ravel , the projected cost savings per t ravel ler may n o t always be

favourable t o telecommunications (53).

However

Large scale replacement of commuting t r ips t o central business

d i s t r i c t s would resul t from each of the four urban scenarios developed

i n the SRjC study.

the financial viabi l i ty o f existing U.S. rapid t rans i t systems (typically

40430% U.S. rapid t rans i t t r ips are CBD oriented (51) ) .

suggested t h a t considerable savings could be made i n projected urban

transportation investments ( b o t h ra i l and freeway) by the elimination o f

CBD growth.

This i s predicted t o have a devastating impact on

I t i s also

These conclusions appear generally appl icable t o the U. K. and Ireland,

Rapid t rans i t systems i n the U.K. are probably not as dependent as U.S.

systems on commuter t r i p s t o the CBD b u t existing decentralization trends

are rapidly changing th i s situation. Suburban r a i l services in Ireland

-42-

are almost entirely dependent on CBD commuter t r ips and would be seriously

affected. Urban bus services i n older U.S. c i t i e s as well as i n Ireland

and the U.K. wou'ld lose a considerable amount o f revenue.

c i t i e s where t r a f f i c res t ra int i s practised as an alternative t o the

construction of urban freeways, telecommunications may be chosen as

preferable t o mass t rans i t .

In European

Work decentral ization induced by telecommunications would also reduce

existing urban t r a f f i c congestion and i t s attendant environmental problems.

Traffic accident rates should also be reduced.

The economic just i f icat ion of pub1 ic investment i n transportation

f a c i l i t i e s depends heavily on the value attr ibuted t o savings in journey

time.

a lesser extent journeys t o work by h igh income groups.

pointed o u t t h a t the replacement of some of these t r ips by telecommunica-

tions could have a much greater impact on the economic v ia ib i l i ty of new

transportation investment t h a n the overall figures for t r i p substitution

woul d suggest (1 2 ) .

The highest values of time are ascribed t o business t r i p s and t o

Tyler has

Energy Imp1 i c a t i o t s

The predominant interurban and urban modes o f transportation are

very heavy users of energy and the use of telecommunications t o substi tute

for travel normally involves substantial energy savings. substitution

for urban commuting has been estimated by N l l e s t o reduce energy

consumption by a factor o f 25.6 when the pr vate auto i s used and between

2.4 and 12.1 for public transport depending on the load factor (54) .

-43-

These figures broadly agree w i t h U . K . estimates (53). A French study

showed that a doubling o f a71 energy costs would increase telecommunica-

tions costs by only 1 . 9 percent compared w i t h an increase of 1 2 . 7 percent

for transportation (47) .

Significant energy savings have also been found for interci ty business

travel substitution (41, 53, 55) although the quantity saved i s dependent

on the type o f telecommunications system, the alternative mode of travel

and the contact time involved. However most studies have indicated t h a t

the substitution o f urban commuter travel by telecommunications offers

much larger potential savings than interci ty travel substitution.

No studies have yet been completed on the energy costs involved in

sett ing u p new telecommunications systems.

that the available evidence strongly favours the telecommunications

a1 ternative t o travel.

However i t i s generally agreed

A number o f U.S. studies have attempted t o quantify the energy

saved by substituting telecomunications for travel (13, 1 4 , 15, 6 ) .

Estimates ranged from 1 t o 7 percent of total U.S. petroleum demand f o r

urban areas depending on the substitution level assumed. For interurban

t ravel , Harkness has estimated that a reduction of total business a i r

travel by 20 percent would save 0.3 percent U.S. pertroleum demand (56) .

Substituting 20 percent of a l l business travel by au to would save a further

0.5 percent. The energy saving potential of new telecommunications has

been shown by Harkness t o be of the same order of magnitude as other

energy conservation concepts (e.g. van pool programmes, improved building

thermal standards, e tc (56) ) .

-44-

However the predicted energy savings by substituting telecommunications

f o r travel may not be ful ly achieved since different travel t r ips may

replace the substituted t r ip . I t i s also not clear from the available

research evidence whether decentralization of homes and j o b s leads t o

more or less t ravel . Harkness suggests t h a t i t may be necessary t o change

travel budgets and travel authorization procedures i f a reduction i n

total business trlavel i s desired. Similar policy measures may be required

for private travel t o encourage net travel substitution. However

substantial energy savings should be achievable i n a l l countries where

telecommunications can substi tute for travel .

Decentral ization

I t has been generally assumed t h a t new telecommunications will a s s i s t

decentralization of bo th homes and jobs.

permits the concentration of certain jobs, e.g. the headquarters of

However telecommunications also

companies can congregate in downtown areas remote from their production

f a c i l i t i e s .

planning control s , etc . cations in determining future urban form. U . K . research by Goddard

suggests t h a t telecommunications development may accelerate j o b dispersal

within metropolitan regions b u t does not appear as significant for longer

distance moves ( 5 7 ) . The SRI study postulated that improvements in tele-

communications would reduce the needs for office organisations t o cluster

in central business d i s t r i c t s and would resul t i n their relocation t o the

suburbs (which i s consistent with the U.K. evidence).

Other factors such as energy costs, land cost and avai labi l i ty ,

are probably of greater importance than telecommuni -

However the

-45-

decentralization of office jobs i s likely t o be significantly less i n

the U.K. and Ireland t h a n in the U.S. because o f more res t r ic t ive

planning controls in these countries.

Social Issues,

The reduction i n local tax revenue as a resul t of decentralization

i s o f particular importance t o U.S. inner c i ty administrations. This

i s also relevant t o the U.K. and Ireland b u t t o a less significant extent.

The decentralization of CBD office jobs would a1 so increase social

problems i n inner c i ty areas.

raised by the widespread use o f new telecommunications (24 , 2 7 ) .

include the problem of equity raised by differing degrees of access to

new telecommunicaXions technologies f o r different social groups.

Substantial reductions in transportation employment would a1 so resul t

from widespread travel substitution. These are disturbing long term

problems which must be considered as p a r t o f the overall impact of new

t e 1 ecommun i cat i on s on soc i e t y .

There are a number of other social issues

These

-46-

CONCLUSIONS

Many of the issues raised i n th is report are necessarily tentative

because the fu l l impacts of developments i n telecommunications are

s t i l l unclear.

communications modes remains unresolved. Detailed econometric studies of

d a t a on past flows o f telephone ca l l s and l e t t e r s undertaken by the U.K.

post office failed t o find any evidence t h a t changes in the avai labi l i ty

or price of one service affected the other ( 1 2 ) .

re-examination of the f ie ld data collected for an Irish study (39) by

the author has clearly indicated that telephone call s and face-to-face

meetings are , on aggregate, used for quite different purposes and very

l i t t l e diversion of existing travel t o telephone appeared possible.

This resul t substantiates the result of an ear l ie r U . K . study, t h a t

only 3 percent of recorded meetings were considered substitutable by

telecommunications (58). Extensive modal s p l i t modelling studies have

also indicated t h a t specific travel t r i p s are largely captive t o certain

modes and t h a t the price e las t ic i ty i s small, This raises the question

of whether new telecommunications devices will substi tute for a range

of travel purposes or alternatively only for specific t r i p types. I t

appears from teleconferencing f ie ld t e s t s that only certain types of

business meetings are suitable for teleconferencing viz. regularly

scheduled information meetings ( 7 ) .

The key question of the media s p l i t between different

Similarly a detailed

-47-

However the potential impacts of new telecommunications on society

i n general and on transportation and p l a n n i n g i n particular are of such

magnitude t h a t continuing research in th i s area i s required i f radical

future problems are t o be avoided.

-48-

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Kollen, J. and J . Garwood, "Travel/Communications Tradeoffs: The Potential for Substitution Among Business Travellers," Bel 1 Canada , Montreal , 1975.

Fordyce, S. W. "NASA Experience in Telecommunications as a Substitute for Transportation," Administration, Washington, D.C. , 1974.

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Collins, M. A. "Business Telecommunications Applications: Field Trials of Television Conference Systems," Long Range Intelligence Bulletin No. 5, Post Office Telecommunications, London, 1975.

Connell , S. "The 1973 Office Communications Survey," Communications Study Group , University Col1 ege , London, 1974, Tyler, M. et al. , "The Prospects for Teleconferencing," Long Range Intelligence Bulletin No. 9, Post Office Telecommunications, London , 1976.

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Dickson, E. and Bowers, R. "The Video Telephone: Impact of a New Era in Telecommunication," Praeger, New York, 1974.

Jones, D. "IYust We Travel: The Potential of Communications as a Substitute flor Urban Travel ,It Stanford Uni versi ty, Stanford, Cal ifornia, March 1973.

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-50-

27. Glover, J. "Long Range Social Forecasts: Working From Home," Long Range Intelligence Bulletin No. 2, Post Office Telecommunications, London , 1974..

28. Mitchell, W. C. "On the Substitutability of Telecommunications for Urban Motor Vehicle Travel ,'I Washington, D.C. , 1969.

National Academy of Engineering,

29. O'Sullivan, D. and J. OISullivan, "Shopping Trip Generation," Department o f Civil Engineering, University College, Cork, 1980.

30. Edwards, M. "Service Provision via Local Communications Centres'' in Impacts of Telecommunications on Planning and Transport. Departments of Environment and Transport, London, 1979.

31 . Howarth, T. , "Education and Telecommunications, 1974-2000," Post Office Long Range Research Report No. 12, London, September 1974H

32. Rose, K. and R. J. Gutmann, "Impact of Cable Television on Educat IEEE Transactions on Communications, Vol. COM-23, No. 10, October 7975.

33. Coll , D. C. et a1 . , "Multidisciplinary Applications of Communicat Systems in Teleconferencing and Education ,'I IEEE Transactions on Communications, Vol. COMn23, No. 10, October 1975.

34. Grey, P. et l a l . , "Communications for Transportation: Imp1 ications for Traffic Engineering," Transportation Engineering, Vol e 47, No. 17 , November 1977.

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35. Miller, J., "Telephones, the Family and a New Town," University of Birmingham, Birmingham, U.K. , 1977.

36. Savage, M. "Residential Trip Generation," Department of Civil Engineering, University College, Cork, 1980.

37. O'Neill, J. ( 3 . et al., "Benefits and Problems of Seven Exploratory Telemedicine Projects , I ' Mitre Corporation report to Department o f Health, Education and Welfare, Washington, D.C. , 1975.

38. Rockoff, M. I,. , "The Social Implications of Health Care Communication Systems , ' I

October 1975. IEEE Transactions on Communications, Vol . COM-23, No. 10,

39. O'Cinneide, [I. and W. G. Breen, "The Relationship between Transport and Telecommunications," Universities Transport Study Group Conference, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, 1980.

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Wells, M. and J. Tolle, "The Significance of Telecommunications as a Partial Substitute for Transportation, 'I Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 1976.

Nilles, J. et a1 8 , "Telecommunications-Transportation Tradeoffs: Options for Tomorrow," Wiley, New York, 1976.

Henneman, S. and R. Krzyczkowski, "Reducing the Need for Travel," Interplan Corporation, Santa Barbara, California, 1974.

DATAR , Bureau Centrale d'Etudes d'0utre-Mer, Paris, 1970.

"Etulde de Su bst i tu tions Transports-Tel ecommunicat i ons , 'I

Grant, 8. E. , Transport and Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, Berkshire, June 1973.

"The Role of Electronics in Surface Transportation,"

Moon, A. E. , "Contributions of Telecommunications to Improved Transportation Sys tern Ef f i c i ency , I' Tec hnol ogy Assessment o f Telecommunications/Transportation Interactions, Vo l . 111, Stanford Research Institute, California, 1977.

Arthur, D. Little, Inc. "Telecommunications and Society 1976-1991 , I ' Report t o Office of Telecommunications Pol icy, Executive Office o f the President, Washington, D.C. , 1976. Tornato, P. Quelques Reflexions sur les Communications: les Relations entre Transport et Telecommunications et leurs Perspectives ,I' Ministere de L'Equipment, Paris, 1974,

50. Fordyce, S . W. "NASA Teleconference Pilot Project," National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, D.C., 1977.

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Smi th , R . (Eid.), "Impacts o f Telecommunications on Planning and Transport ,Ii Departments of Environment and Transpor t , Research Report 24, L.ondon, 1979,

Ty le r , M. et; a1 . " I n t e r a c t i o n between Telecommunications and Face- to-Face Contact : The Energy Fac tor , " Long Range I n t e l l i g e n c e Bu l l e t in No. 3, Post Office Telecommunications, London, 1974.

Nilles, 3 . FI. e t a l . , Transpor ta t ion Congestion," C y b e r n e t i c s , Vol. SMC-6, No. 2 , February 1976.

"Telecommuting - An A l t e r n a t i v e t o Urban IEEE TRansactions on Systems, Man, and

Katsoul i s , Pl. "Travel Communications S u b s t i t u t i o n - I t s Po ten t i a l f o r Energy Conservation i n Canada," Bel 1 Canada, 1976.

Harkness, R . C . "Energy," Impact Synthes is Paper 9, Technology Assessment of Telecommunications/Transportation I n t e r a c t i o n s , Vol . I I , Stanford Research I n s t i t u t e , Cal i f o r n i a , 1977.

Goddard, J . and R. Pye, "Telecommunications and Office Locat ions," i n Impacts of Telecommunications on Planning and Transpor t , Report 24 Departments of Environment and Transport , London , 1979,

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Reid, A . A . Communications Study Group, Univers i ty Col lege , London, 1971 . "Face t o Face Contacts i n Government Departments ,I '

-53-

APPENDIX A

Travel-Time Budgets and the Future Use of Telecommunications

Empirical research has shown t h a t individual travellers and

households spend a f a i r ly constant amount of time (or time and money)

on travel ( l A , 2A).

travel time budget, has been shown t o be reasonably constant a t

aggregate level, regardless of c i ty s ize , and stable over time.

Travel time budgets per traveller have been found t o vary from 1 .O

t o 1 .5 hours per day (3A).

travel by households i s a relatively stable proportion of total

household expenditure a t a l l income levels; 1 5 1 7 % for car owning

households and less than half this value for non-car owning households

(4A). However invariant expenditure of ei ther time or money on

travel i s inconsistent with rational economic behaviour and w i t h

conventional transportation model1 i n g . A theoretical analysis by

Tanner concluded t h a t general ised expenditure on travel might be

invariant ( 5 A ) .

indicate that generalised expenditure i s much the same i n urban as in

rural areas, despite the wide v a r i a t i o n i n modes available and distances

t o destinations ( S A ) .

This daily constraint on travel, known as a

Zahavi has suggested t h a t expenditures on

Data from the U.K, National Travel Survey was used t o

Goodwin using London Transport s tudy data (1971-72) empirically

tested the s t ab i l i t y of individual travel time budgets by examining

variations for different t ravel ler characterist ics such as income and

-54-

car ownership ( Z A ) . He concluded t h a t the evidence was inconclusive

bu t his work also supports the concept of some upper bound on travel

time. Goodwin allso suggested t h a t the t o t a l time allotted t o travel

i s l ikely t o increase as the barriers t o travel are removed b u t subject

t o a saturation level, However i t appears unlikely t h a t the existing

barriers t o travel will be eased due t o the predicted energy cost

increases.

A study was recently completed in Baltimore i n t o the s t ab i l i t y o f

travel time and money budgets a t disaggregate level using a random

966 household day-long t r ip diary (6A).

port ion of gross household income spent on travel (15.45%) correlated

very we17 w i t h Zahavi's results. However the proportion spent varied

significantly with income (from 22% for the lowest income group t o

11% for the highest).

o f income (15%) oil travel (irrespective o f household income) was

rejected a t the disaggregate level.

aggregate level gave an average daily travel time per t ravel ler of

1.28 hours and th-is value showed insignificant variation across various

sizes of households ( in terms of number of t ravel lers) . This resu l t

conforms with Zahavi's findings o f a relatively constant travel time

per t ravel ler (4Aj1,

populat ion of each s t r a t i f i ed group (race; income; location; vehicle

avai labi l i ty) b u t generally the absolute size of the variance was small

(5 t o 7 minutes) and could have resulted from d a t a inaccuracies.

A t aggregate level the pro-

Thus Zahavi's hypothesis of a constant allocation

Analysis of the Baltimore da ta a t

The Baltimore da ta showed some variance within the

The

-55-

d i f f e r e n c e between t h e average d a i l y t r a v e l t ime f o r t r a v e l l e r s f rom

zero and two c a r households was o n l y 5.4 minutes w h i l e t h e same

d i f f e r e n c e was found between o u t e r c i t y and downtown r e s i d e n t s ( those

l i v i n g o u t s i d e t h e c i t y o f B a l t i m o r e recorded t r a v e l t imes midway

between these l o c a t i o n s ) .

Thus i t appears t h a t t h e concept o f a c o n s t a n t d a i l y t r a v e l t i m e

per t r a v e l l e r has some m e r i t e s p e c i a l l y when a p p l i e d i n aggregate f o r

urban areas.

(1 t o 1.5 hours) recorded by Zahavi (4A) suggests t h a t c a u t i o n i s

r e q u i r e d i n t r a n s f e r r i n g t h i s concept between c i t i e s .

However t h e range i n va lues between d i f f e r e n t c i t i e s

The concept o f a d a i l y t r a v e l t i m e c o n s t r a i n t appears s u b j e c t i v e l y

v a l i d and t h e evidence t o da te suggests t h a t , on aggregate, i t remains

s t a b l e over t ime. Th is u n i f o r m i t y o f t r a v e l budgets suggests t h a t , i f

advanced telecommunicat ions reduced commuting non-work t r a v e l would

inc rease cor respond ing ly t o m a i n t a i n t h e same t r a v e l budget.

r e s u l t s o f many t r a n s p o r t a t i n g s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e l e n g t h and

number o f journeys undertaken by each t r a v e l l e r a r e i n c r e a s i n g over

t ime. Unless t h e f u t u r e r a t e o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n system improvements

cont inues a t p a s t r a t e s (which appears u n l i k e l y because o f p r e d i c t e d

energy c o s t s and f i n a n c i a l c o n s t r a i n t s ) i t i s suggested t h a t d a i l y t i m e

budget c o n s t r a i n t s w i l l r e i n f o r c e t h e use o f advanced telecommunicat ions

media as a s u b s t i t u t e f o r t r a v e l .

The

-56-

Appendix A References

1 A ) Zahavi , Y . "Travel Time Budgets and M o b i l i t y i n Urban Areas." Repor t FHWA PL8183, Department o f T ranspor ta t ion , Washington, D.C. , 1974.

2A) Goodwin, P. EL "Trave l Choice and Time Budgets," i n Determinants of Trave l Choice, House , London , 1978,

Eds, Henshev, D. A. and Quasim D a l v i , Saxon

3A) Zahavi , Y. "Can Transpor t Pol i c y Dec is ions Change Trave l and Urban Struct i i re , " Warwick, 1978.

PTRC Summer Annual Meet ing, U n i v e r s i t y o f

4A) Zahavi, Y . "The UMOT Pro ject , " Prepared f o r U,S. Department o f Transpor ta t ion , Washington, D.C. , 1979.

5A) Tanner, J . C. "Expendi ture o f Time and Money on Trave l ,I ' Transpor t and Road Research Laboratory , Supplementary Report , SR 466 , Crowthorne , B e r k s h i r e 1979.

6A) Makofsk i , R. e t a l . , D r a f t r e p o r t on t h e s t a b i l i t y o f t r a v e l budgets a t d isaggregate l e v e l , Metro Center, Johns Hopkins U n i v e r s i t y , Bal t imore, Maryland, 1980.

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APPENDIX B

The Incorporation o f Telecommunications into the Transportation P1 anning Process

New telecommunications media will have a major influence on future

transportation and land use requirements. Thus it appears logical that

telecommunications should form part o f the comprehensive land use/trans-

portation planning process.

result in deferring or foregoing some transportation system improvements

(which might result in a net savings o f energy).

how best to incorporate telecommunications in the planning process. It

could be inc uded in the modal split stage as an alternative "transpor-

tation" mode using realistically calibrated models for each trip purpose.

However this woulcl ignore the effects of new telecommunications on trip

generation and urban form.

The inclusion of telecommunications could

However it is not clear

As previously indicated transportation and telecommunications are

probably not alternatives for more than a small proportion of total

communications; each appears primarily to serve a different communication

need.

considered as part o f the trip generation stage of the planning process.

Thus models could be developed to generate telecommunications and

transportation "trip" rates separately.

could then be examined for time budget restraints and the likely

number o f captive communications by transport and telecommunications

identified. Separate distribution, modal split and assignment models

should be developed to give total assigned flows to the transportation and

Consequently it is suggested that telecommunications should be

The communication rates generated

-58-

telecommunications networks. Since the new telecommunications models

will be partly speculative initially, sensitivity analysis must be

incorporated in the process. It is suggested that new telecommunications

media trip rates should be varied by Y f 5% for business and commuter

trips and by - f 10% for other trip types.