GREF Dr. Ilse Trautmann

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN

THE SOUTHERN CAPE

7 June 2019

Content

1. Background on climate change

2. Process followed to develop the SmartAgri plan

3. Results and outputs

4. Discussion and take home message for Southern Cape

5. Some implementation actions of WCDoA

6. Closing comments

Background on Climate Change actions in Western

Cape

• Agriculture has always been very vulnerable: land, water,

climate. Several projects and initiatives were part of our

departmental service delivery agenda over many years.

• 2006: Status quo report on climate change and agriculture

in the Western Cape – commissioned by DoA

• 2008: Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy

and Action Plan released – agriculture was one of the

sectors included

• 2014: Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy

DEADP revised the 2009

• But, there was no plan focussing only on agriculture

SOME CURRENT TRENDS AND FUTURE

PREDICTIONS ON THE CLIMATE

Revived urgency – record warming of the earth in 2016

Climate change projections: 2046-2065

summer winter

temperature rainfall

Data: IPCC and SAWS

• 2015-2017: Worst drought in 30 years, high temperatures

• Induced by El Niño and compounded by climate change

• Climate change expected to bring more of this

South Africa/Western Cape: Drought 2015-2017

Recent climate related extreme events

• Floods - the most common hazard causing most

damage and disruption

• In 2003-2010, cut-off low weather systems causing

flash floods were linked to direct economic losses in

excess of R 5 billion in the WC; In 2011-2014 the

losses were ca. R1.6 billion

• Hailstorms (2006, 2013) – large losses in fruit volumes

and income, loss of jobs for labour

• Droughts – devastating impacts; 2015/17 – damages

R2-4 billion at least

• Fires – increasing frequency and intensity

Severe weather events: increasing out to 2050

• More heat stress

• More frequent and longer dry spells

• More heavy rainfall and floods

• Possible changes in hail and strong winds

• Increasingly favourable conditions for wildfires

Who needs a response strategy?

We really should have

done something…

PROCESS FOLLOWED

A PLAN TO ACTION – THE SMART AGRI PLAN

“A 20 MONTH JOURNEY”

The SmartAgri Journey

2014 - 2016

• SmartAgri – a “better together” initiative between DoA and DEADP

• Goal: Development of the Western Cape Agricultural Sector Climate

Change Framework and Implementation Plan (also called SmartAgri)

• The SmartAgri Plan builds on the Western Cape Climate Change

Response Strategy (WCCCRS 2014) – first sectoral response

framework and plan

• It presents the “road map” for the agricultural sector of the WC to

travel towards a more productive and sustainable future, despite the

uncertainties around specific climate projections

• Consortium led by ACDI (UCT)

• 20 Months – delivered 31 March 2016

• Implementation: starting May 2016

The SmartAgri project

Three-phased work plan

Phase 1: Status Quo

Months 1-4

Stakeholder workshops

Stakeholder database

Status Quo assessment of climate change responses in agriculture

Phase 2: Framework

Months 4-13

Stakeholder workshops and interviews

WC Agric Sector Climate Change Response Framework

•Gap analysis

• Scenario analysis

•6 Case Studies

Phase 3: Implementation Plan

Months 14-20

Communications Campaign

Stakeholder workshops and forum meetings

Implementation Plan with M&E Plan

Final Stakeholder database

August 2014 March 2016

23 Agro-ecological zones

Stakeholder engagements

Farmers, commodities, expert groups, focus groups, research institutions,

municipalities, etc.

Local context: key compounding influences

Overberg

WEST COASTGrain & Livestock

OVERBERGGrain & Livestock

SOUTHERN CAPEDairy & regional

commodities

KLEIN KAROOMixed farming

CENTRAL KAROOLivestock

Energy crisis Input cost Water infrastructureClimate Risk (drought,

heat wave)

Predators

Pastures Water managementFarming practices

(soil/ pasture)Aliens

Rainfall (intensity,

amount, distribution)

Predation Commodity prices

Land use competition

(urbanisation, land

reform)

Soil erosion/ overgrazing

Overexploitation of

groundwater

Sk theftTechnology –new &

improvedEnvironmental Risks Pollination

Government (taxes,

support)

Water supply and

managementResearch Markets and prices

Water infrastructure &

management

Financial costs of inputs

Social & political (new

farmers)

Responses to customer

needs

Access to resources

(financial)Guidance/legislation

Infrastructural

degradation

Biological diversityNatural resources

management

External influences

(labour, legislation,

electricity supply)

Energy

Labour (trust,

productivity, laws)

Price/ economic

viability

Limited farming

optionsDiseases Fracking

Soil degradation

(limitation b/c of soil

type)

Politics/policy & land

reform/expectationsLabour

Land use change

(farming to

conservation, reduced

production)

Natural hazard (fire,

drought, disease)Skills development Finance & land availability

Predators

RESULTS AND OUTPUTS

Status Quo Review products

Full SQ Review

Executive Summary

Summary briefs for regions /

commodities

SQ Review: Specific Impacts

• WINTER GRAINS - The biggest threats of climate change to field crops are likely to lie in changes to the distribution and intensity of pest species, the spread of diseases and growth of weeds.

• IRRIGATED HORTICULTURAL CROPS - Apart from apples, horticultural crops are unlikely to become affected by moderate warming. However, seasonal shifts in rainfall, extreme temperature and humidity give rise to production and quality problems. The biggest threats of climate change to irrigated horticultural crops are insufficient water for irrigation, changing patterns of pests and diseases, and furtherwarming.

• DRYLAND HORTICULTURAL CROPS (e.g. rooibos) will experience range shifts in suitable production areas, with warmer and drier areas contracting and new areas becoming suitable which are currently too cool or wet.

• EXTENSIVE LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION (cattle, sheep, goats and ostriches) will be primarily impacted by rangeland vegetation changes and fodder production. Dairy cattle are at greater risk of experiencing heat stress with reduced milk production and fertility.

• INTENSIVE LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION (feedlot cattle, pigs, chickens) is likely to be adversely affected by heat stress in warmer regions, feed scarcity, cost increases and diseases.

• GENERIC RISKS include floods, droughts, hail, frost (!) and fires and damage to agricultural infrastructure.

Cross-linkages across Strategic Focus Areas

Dept of the Premier; Dept of Health (food

security); Dept of Human Settlements;

Dept Social Development (food gardens); Dept of Transport & Public Works (low-carbon

fuels); Dept of Economic Development & Tourism (value chain

growth & jobs)Dept of the

Premier; Dept Local Government (joint

planning)

Dept of Transport & Public Works (built

infrastructure)

Dept of Economic Development & Tourism; Dept of Transport & Public

Works (econ. dev. planning)

Dept of Economic Development & Tourism

(markets)

Dept of the Premier; Dept of

Economic Development &

Tourism (strategy)

Dept of Economic Development &

Tourism (red tape)

Disaster Management Center (whole SFA2)

Dept of Human Settlements; Dept of Health; Dept of Social

Development (agri-worker well-being)

Dept Community Safety (early warning

systems)

Dept of Education (agricultural education)

Dept of Local Gov.

Treasury

Phase 3: The SmartAgri Plan

SFA 1. Promote a climate-resilient agricultural sector that is productive, competitive, equitable and ecologically

sustainable across the value chain

The SmartAgri Plan 2016

www.greenagri.org.za

2018 Premier Service

Excellence Award Gold

2019 Eco-logic Climate Change Award Gold

X16 BRIEFS: for

example

Brief for the Grain

and Livestock Sector:

Swartland and

greater West Coast

region

www.greenagri.org.za

X6 CASE STUDIES:

1. FruitLook

2. Conservation

agriculture

3. Smallholder farming

4. Disaster risk

reduction &

management

5. (Peri-)urban

agriculture

6. Renewable energy

www.greenagri.org.za

Priority Projects

• Priority Project 1: Conservation Agriculture for all commodities

and farming systems

• Priority Project 2: Restored ecological infrastructure for

increased landscape productivity, socio-ecological resilience

and soil carbon sequestration

• Priority Project 3: Collaborative integrated catchment

management for improved water security (quality and

quantity) and job creation

• Priority Project 4: Energy efficiency and renewable energy

case studies to inspire the transition to low-carbon agriculture

• Priority Project 5: Climate-proofing the growth of

agri-processing in the Western Cape

Southern Cape

• Distinct climate, ocean influence, soils and mountains –

mosaic of agricultural production potential.

• SmartAgri focussed on three agro-climatic zones (Bo

Langkloof Outeniqua, Groot Brak-Plett, Mosselbay-

Herbertsdale).

• So what can we expect – increase in extreme rainfall events

(flooding), heat waves to become a regular feature, more

frequent and longer dry spells, reduced seasonal rainfall, more

frequent summer rainfall, higher CO2 levels. Low water storage

capacity across the region will result in higher vulnerability to

periods of low rainfall.

• SO WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE – RISKS AND

IMPACTS ON DAIRY FARMING AND OTHER REGIONAL

COMMODITIES??

Southern Cape (cont.)

• Farming in Southern Cape sensitive to the mentioned climatic

conditions.

• Livestock – dairy farming – pastures to be impacted, animals

heat and nutrition stress, changes in pests and diseases,

changes in water availability. Impact on milk production and fertility.

• Sheep, beef cattle and ostriches – all at risk – reduced growth

and reproduction performance, reduced meat yield and

quality, increased diseases.

• Hops – droughts will have serious impact. More water needed

for period Sept – Feb. Surface water will not be sufficient and

groundwater will have to be used. New diseases could have

major impact on production.

• Honeybush – limited research done on climate change

effects, but honeybush could be more resilient.

Southern Cape (cont.)

• Other crops (nuts, veggies, berries, etc.) – extreme weather

and insufficient soil moisture and irrigation water could cause

major damages.

• Farmworkers and rural people – employment, poverty,

diseases, etc.

• But is it all doom and gloom??

A climate resilient ag sector in the Southern

Cape

• Its all about decision making!

• Access to a wider choice of appropriate options – innovation,

improve practises – tailor made for own situation and needs.

• Technology is key to resilience.

• Critical factor – security of water for agricultural use.

Remember competition from growing water users.

• Focus on conserving soil moisture.

• Choice of breed (heat and drought resistant), more disease

and parasite resistant.

• Focus on feed and supplements. New crops for fodder.

• Reduced energy use (renewable energy) and greenhouse

gas emissions.

TAKE HOME MESSAGE

Key actions for Southern Cape

• Protect the soil – conservation agriculture.

• Manage production and use of pastures, including

conservation agriculture in fodder production.

• Improve management of water resources and maintenance of

on-farm water infrastructure.

• Clearing of alien invasive plants.

• Pro-active risk management (fires)

• Increased efficiencies of energy and greater use of renewable

energy.

So what is Government doing? Respond, start new initiatives and support!

THE ALTERNATIVE CROPS FUND – A BETTER TOGETHER PARTNERSHIP MODEL

Three Departmental Programmes, Hortgro and smaller industry organisations

We MUST research and develop new practises!

Conservation Agriculture: Grain systems, Irrigated Pasture

systems & Potato systems

39Annelene Swanepoel Mpumalanga Delegation 19 March 2015

• Test & develop new

cover crops

• Leave crop residues

• Start new continuous

cropping systems

• Alternative crops

• Test new disc planters

• Develop with

manufacturers

Maximum cover Crop rotation Minimum soil

disturbance

(Develop new sustainable systems, effects of tillage, weed control, risk of new plant

diseases, cover crop management, soil quality, soil renewal, etc.)

We can develop decision making tools!

40

www.elsenburg.com

Spatial Intelligence

Veterinary Export Establishment Programme

AgriStats Portal

Green Agri Portal

AgriTouch

FruitLook

CAMIS

Cape Farm Mapper/Sentinel portal

AIMS

Smart Pen

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Climate Smart Technology Transfer – take part and take home

• Scientific & Conferences

• Presentations at Information Days

• Walk-n-Talks

• Green and brown tours

• Courses

• Popular articles /books/

pamphlets/infopacks

• Website

• Radio Talks

• One on one engagements

Some other innovations• Conservation Agriculture Western Cape Association started by Dept.

• “Green filter” for small holder farmers – project completed.

• New pasture crops for Southern Cape – climate focus!

• Sentinel 2 portal for better decision making!

• Die Kwik Styg radio programme on RSG – busy with series two – climate

change awareness at its best!

*

A little bit of brag!!

But the real winners are

and should be the

farmers – for taking part

in compiling the plan

and for being the brave

ones to bring food to

our tables! We salute

and support them!

Thank you

Dankie

Enkosi

44

Tel: Fax:

www.elsenburg.com

Contact Us

• Dr. Ilse Trautmann

• Research and Technology Development

• 021-8085012 • 021-8085335

• Ilset@elsenburg.com