Supporting

European

Aviation

The ICAO Climate Adaptation

Synthesis

ICAO Green Airports 2019: Climate Adaptation and Resilience

Rachel BURBIDGE

Policy Officer: Environment and Climate

8-9 May, Lima, Perú

The Synthesis in Numbers

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Overview of Synthesis

Contents:

Executive Summary

1) Introduction

1) Methodology

2) Respondents Expectations of Climate Change Impacts on their Aviation Sectors

3) Overview of Survey Demographics

2) Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Effects

1) Analysis of Impacts Which Stakeholders Expect to be the Biggest Challenges

2) Synthesis of Information on Risk Assessment Mythologies and Progress

3) Synthesis of Information on Adaptation Planning

3) The Global Aviation Sector and Adaption to Climate Change

4) Conclusion

Number of Respondents by ICAO Region

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Do you expect to be impacted by Climate

Change now or in the future?

Main climate impacts by region Figure 1: Based on replies from ICAO Member States the ICAO Global Climate

Adaptation Risk Map (ICAO, 2019) shows the nature of the climate change impacts

on international aviation.

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Impacts that Stakeholders are expecting

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Desertification

Business and Economics

Changes in Biodiversity

Changes in Wind Patterns

Changing Icing Conditions

Sea Level Rise

Increased Intensity of Storms

Changing Precipitation

Higher Average and Extreme Temperature

PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS THAT ARE AFFECTED TODAY, OR EXPECT TO BE AFFECTED IN THE FUTURE, BY IMPACT CATEGORY

“Yes” “No”

Analysis of Climate Change Impacts

• Summary of Impact and

Timescales

• Potential Effects on Aviation

• Adaptation and Resilience

Measures

• Survey Analysis

Impact Categories

• Sea level rise

• Storm surge

• Increased intensity of storms

• Changes in average and extreme

temperatures

• Changing precipitation

• Changing icing conditions

• Changes in wind speed, patterns and

directions

• Desertification

• Changes in Biodiversity (wildlife and

ecosystems)

• Business and Economics

Higher Average and Extreme Temperatures

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Impact and Timescales

• Average global mean temperatures and

extreme high-heat days expected to

increase.

Potential Effects on Aviation

• Stress to cooling systems

• damage to airfield surface

• Affect aircraft take-off requirements.

• Degradation of permafrost

Adaptation and Resilience Measures

• Increase cooling capability

• Runway length & scheduling

• Reinforce airport surface areas

Survey Results

80 of 88 respondents stated they

are affected today or expect to be

affected in the future (91 percent).

80

8

RESPONDENTS THAT ARE OR EXPECT TO BE AFFECTED BY HIGHTER AVERAGE

AND EXTREME TEMPERATURES

Yes No N= 88

Changing Precipitation

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Impact and Timescales

• Changes in precipitation type (e.g., rain,

snow, hail) and frequency, potential

extreme rainfall or prolonged drought

Potential Effects on Aviation

• Flooding of airport surfaces &

infrastructure

• Reduced water availability.

Adaptation and Resilience Measures

• Increase drainage capability

• Water conservation measures

Survey Results

78 of 88 respondents stated they

are affected today or expect to be

affected in the future (89 percent).

78

10

RESPONDENTS THAT ARE OR EXPECT TO BE AFFECTED BY CHANGING

PRECIPITATION

Yes NoN= 88

Increased Intensity of Storms

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Impact and Timescales

• Storms projected to be stronger &

potentially more frequent. Increased risk

of extreme weather

Potential Effects on Aviation

• Damage to aviation infrastructure

• Delays or cancellations of flights

Adaptation and Resilience Measures

• Reinforce infrastructure

• Pre-emptive cancellation of flights

Survey Results

76 of 88 respondents stated they

are affected today or expect to be

affected in the future (88 percent).

76

12

RESPONDENTS THAT ARE OR EXPECT TO BE AFFECTED BY

INCREASED INTENSITY OF STORMS

Yes NoN= 88

Global Network: global challenge

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Adapting and Building Resilience

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26

13

9

1

13

5

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Measuresalreadybeing

implemented

In the nextfive years

In the nextten years

Longer thanten years

Not specificor undecided

No measuresplanned

No answer

Nu

mb

er

of

Res

po

nd

en

ts

Survey Response

TIMESCALES IN WHICH RESPONDENTS ARE TAKING MEASURES TO ADAPT AND BUILD RESILIENCE

N= 87

2

48

18

8 11

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

It is well-preparedfor the potential

impacts of climatechange

It has someadaptation

measures in placebut more needs to

be done

It has consideredadaptation but noactions have been

initiated yet

It has notconsideredadaptation

No answer Other

Nu

mb

er

of

Re

sp

on

de

nts

Survey Response

EXTENT TO WHICH RESPONDENTS THINK THE GLOBAL AVIATION SECTOR IS PREPARED FOR THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

N= 88

Global Aviation Sector

and Adaptation to Climate Change Section

What do our Stakeholders think? How can we

ramp up action?

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Action is being taken, but need

more to be done, and to be done

more quickly

Capacity building, training,

guidance

Coordination and

collaboration

Adaptation, risk assessment, policies and

planning (Global)

Adaptation, risk assessment, and planning (National

and local)

Infrastructure and technical

adaptation

Research

Operational adaptation

Met services

Q: Is the global aviation sector prepared

for the impacts of climate change?

A: Guidance material has been developed

but training and raising awareness should

be conducted as well. (State)

A: Rising awareness and capacity building

for climate change among community

and aviation stake holders, and promote

environment friendly strategy. (State)

We see a lot of good examples of risk

assessments carried out. We believe such

assessments are the most important basis for a

rational approach to climate adaptation.

(Airport)

What next for CAEP/12?

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• ICAO Environment Report 2019

• Disseminate information in the Climate

Adaptation Synthesis

• New work on risk assessment and

adaptation measures

Conclusions

• Awareness is growing: more States

and aviation sector organisations

taking action

• But, we can do more, and more

quickly

• First step is a climate change risk

assessment to identify vulnerabilities

• Then develop a climate change

adaptation strategy or plan

• Individual solutions for individual

organisations, but –

• Global network = global challenge

• We all need to take action

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