the hcp (hidden critical paths) method: shortening ... tal... · paths) method: shortening projects...

The HCP (Hidden Critical Paths) Method:

Shortening projects schedules and more…

The HCP (Hidden Critical Paths) Method:

Shortening projects schedules and more…

Tal Levanon, MSc, PMI-SP

Founder & CTO

HCP Project Management Consulting

www.hcp-consulting.com

Tal Levanon, MSc, PMI-SP

Founder & CTO

HCP Project Management Consulting

www.hcp-consulting.com

Tal Levanon - Founder & CTO

Developer of the Hidden Critical Paths method (US patent #US7,769,618 B2)

15 years of international project management experience

PMI-SP (PMI-Schedule Professional)

Lecturer at the Engineering Department of Tel Aviv University

M.Sc. Industrial Engineering –Tel Aviv University (Israel)

www.hcp-consulting.com 2 ©Tal Levanon - HCP

www.hcp-consulting.com ©Tal Levanon - HCP 3

AgendaMotivation for listening

What is HCP?

Insights Revealed by HCP

HCP Case Studies


Objectives of theHCP Method (Patented)

Predict the ability to complete the project on time, on spec and on budget

Pinpoint action items for schedule improvement

Identify hidden risks in the project

Who is our Clientele?

www.hcp-consulting.com © HCP Project Management Consulting -Proprietary

5

Asset Owners & Investors

Contractors

SubjectSubjectSubjectSubject

HCP deep schedule analysis for schedules from outside sources

� � � �

Writing schedules for tenders, projects � �

Monthly monitoring projects’ schedules by performance and by HCP analysis

� � �

Risk Management � � �

Lectures, Training � � �

Project Managers

Parties to Claims & Disputes

Legend


What is the HCP (Hidden Critical Paths) Method?Unique algorithmic approach to analyzing a project

schedule

Reveal critical aspects of any project schedule:

� Locate opportunities to shorten schedule

� Locate hidden risks in the schedule

� Know the success expectation rate of the project

� Compare between two schedules:of two different contractors or of the same contractor.

� And more…


What are Hidden Critical Paths?

Your project duration is: 12 months.

� Q: What is the duration of the critical path?

� A: Normally, 12 months.

In this project, there is a path 11.5 months long:

� Is it critical?

� Not according to CPM! But it’s not hard to get behind

schedule by two weeks in real life…

� So what is this path?

� This is a Hidden Critical Path!

Example:


Hidden Critical Paths

Critical Path I

Critical Path II

Hidden Critical Path I

Hidden Critical Path II

DurationAugust September October November

ID


Insights Revealed by HCP



� Know the success expectation rate of the

project

� Compare between two schedules

� And more…



� Know the success expectation rate of the

project

� Compare between two schedules

� And more…


HCP Critical PathHCP Critical Path

Identical to CPM Critical Path?

Opportunities for Bringing Forward the Schedule's End Date!

RealProject

“Two Paths”SampleProject


Real Project

1,100 activities, 600 work days

Duration Float of Total Project Duration

No. of Paths

20% 50,000~

10% 9,000~

5% 1,500~

?

?

?

Display format:

Activity Network (Primavera)

PERT Network (MS Project)


“Two Paths” Sample Project

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

�

9sf+2days

10sf+2days

13sf+2days

14sf+2days

HCP-Critical-Path identical to CPM Critical Path?

Opportunities for Bringing Forward the Schedule's End Date!

The Difference between Total Float/Slack and Duration Float/Slack


Activities in HCP Critical Paths

Activities in HCP Critical Paths


Opportunities for Bringing Forward the Project’s End Date

Opportunities for Bringing Forward the Project’s End Date


Schedule ShowingTotal Float/Slack and HCP Duration Float/Slack

9sf+2days

10sf+2days

13sf+2days

14sf+2days


Highway 6: Section 18

Jerusalem

Tel

Aviv

Highway 6:

•Toll road

•121 km long

•BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer)

•Budget: ~$1 Billion

•Length: 18.2 km long including 14 bridges, 2 tunnels

•Budget: ~$200 million

•Contract: 33 months (June 2007 – March 2010)

Egypt

Lebanon

Jordan

Haifa

Beer

Sheva


Hwy 6, Section 181,488 Tasks

Start DateStart DateStart DateStart Date

12121212,,,,920 920 920 920 paths found!paths found!paths found!paths found!

Finish DateFinish DateFinish DateFinish Date

DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ 40404040% · T% · T% · T% · T

345 345 345 345 slack daysslack daysslack daysslack days

The network duration:The network duration:The network duration:The network duration:572.5 572.5 572.5 572.5 daysdaysdaysdays

Project Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: 862.5 862.5 862.5 862.5 days = Tdays = Tdays = Tdays = T

0 0 0 0 paths found!paths found!paths found!paths found!

DS < DS < DS < DS < 33333333% · T% · T% · T% · T

290 290 290 290 slack daysslack daysslack daysslack days

Project Slack ��


The HCP Critical Path

216216216216

290 290 290 290 slack daysslack daysslack daysslack daysCP duration: CP duration: CP duration: CP duration: 572.5 572.5 572.5 572.5 daysdaysdaysdays

• Possible timeline reductions

• Parallel tasks in the CP (risk)26 HCP critical tasks


Hidden Critical Activities

Hidden Critical Activities

Manage the HCP activities as

you manage the CPM activities!

Risk management assessment

Hidden critical resources

Redundant PathsRedundant Paths


Bridge of Strings, Jerusalem, Israel

Architect: Santiago Calatrava

L: 380 meters

W: 4,500 tons

Pylon Height: 119 meters

66 Cables, each ~150 meters.

Materials: Stainless steel Concrete

Cost: ~$65 Million


Redundant paths

Path X is redundant to Path Y if all the tasks exist in Path X also exist in Path Y.

A B C D E F

Path X: A�B�E�F

Path Y: A�B�C�D�E�F


Project Success Expectation

Project Success Expectation


Schedules Comparison

Tenders: Comparison between two (or more) different schedules of different contractors

The same project: Comparison between two (or more) schedules of different months

Project: Mysterious

HCP analysis comparison: Month #1, Month #2

Project: Mysterious

HCP analysis comparison: Month #1, Month #2

Relevant to:

PMs, Expert Inspectors, Specialists , Lawyers, CEOs, etc.

Relevant to:

PMs, Expert Inspectors, Specialists , Lawyers, CEOs, etc.


Mirroring the Project StructureMore than 8,500 activities, 8 different Primavera files combined

Date XDate XDate XDate X Project Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: 460 460 460 460 work days =Twork days =Twork days =Twork days =T1111

2222,,,,813 813 813 813 paths found!paths found!paths found!paths found!((((17171717,,,,502 502 502 502 total)total)total)total)

Over Over Over Over 50505050,,,,000 000 000 000 paths paths paths paths found (total)found (total)found (total)found (total)

Too muchToo muchToo muchToo much

Date YDate YDate YDate Y

Date ZDate ZDate ZDate ZProject Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: 439 439 439 439 work days =Twork days =Twork days =Twork days =T2222

M #1

851 851 851 851 paths found!paths found!paths found!paths found!((((9999,,,,179 179 179 179 total)total)total)total)

M #21 Month buffer

DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ 5555% · T% · T% · T% · T1111

23 23 23 23 float daysfloat daysfloat daysfloat days

DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ 10101010% · T% · T% · T% · T1111


DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ 20202020% · T% · T% · T% · T2222



HCP: Project SuccessExpectation

M#1

M#2


M #1 M #2

Paths Histogram Comparison


The HCPs

•7 paths with 1 day DS – 3 tasks

•19 paths with 10 days DS – 23 tasks

•19 paths with 11 days DS






Total of 167 HCP tasks (21DS days):

42 Critical Tasks

125 Hidden Critical Tasks

•1 path with 5 day DS – 4 tasks

•1 path with 8 days DS – 10 tasks







Total of 150 HCP tasks (23DS days):

54 Critical Tasks

96 Hidden Critical Tasks

M #1 M #2


The CP by the HCP Analysis

6 different Critical

Paths – 42 tasks

All identical to CPM

Critical Paths

8 cases of overlapping

tasks (higher risk)

No Options for timeline

reductions

M #1

3 different Critical

Paths – 54 tasks

All identical to CPM

Critical Paths

9 cases of overlapping

tasks (higher risk)

No Options for timeline

reductions

M #2


Identify weak control points

� Project threshold: 27.8 days.

� 234 activities with duration longer than 28 days were located

M #2

� Project threshold: 90 days.

� 461 activities with duration longer than 90 days were located

M #1


Technical Insights…�Schedule Integrity Issues

�HCP Histogram

�Risk Management Issues:

� Overlapping Activities in the

HCP Critical Path

� Difficult-to-Track Activities

�Key Schedule and Analysis Dates


Schedule Integrity Issues Schedule Integrity Issues

Tasks which should have finished or

should have started

•Summary Tasks Directly Linked from Predecessors•Summary Tasks Directly Linked to Successors •Only Earliest/Latest Tasks within Summary Tasks Linked to Other Tasks

opportunities to reduce the overall schedule duration


Critical and Near-critical HCP Paths

Histogram

Critical and Near-critical HCP Paths

Histogram

Case studies: HCP Histograms


What do you think?

Which one is a betterproject schedule?

Path duration slack / float

Number of Paths“Cardio”

Case studies: HCP Histograms – cont.


Basic schedule – May 2011 Update schedule – Dec 2013

What do you think?

What happened in the project?


Number of Paths


Number of Paths


Case study: Route 9, Jerusalem

• 11 sections

• 11 contractors

HCP involved from October 2005

• 3.6 km

• 3 bridges

• 2 tunnels (400m)

• ~$125 million

• Total time: 6 years (2001-May 2007)


Risk management (1): Overlapping Activities in the

HCP Critical Path

Risk management (1): Overlapping Activities in the

HCP Critical Path

Parallel activities in the HCP critical path significantly increase the overall risk of completing the

project on schedule.


Difficult-to-Track Activities

Difficult-to-Track Activities

Activities whose duration is longer

than a certain threshold*:

Divide into smaller sub-activities

*The HCP Method calculates this threshold per project


Key Schedule and Analysis Dates

Key Schedule and Analysis Dates

The effective date of

analysis can be today, or can simulate any other date!

The ‘start date of

analysis’ can be later than the project start date.


Unique Insights…!

�� Two or more schedules in One!

�� A major change in the schedule does

NOT have to result in a loss of control

�� Proactive management


Case Study: ?

The subject of the project: Unknown…

All tasks names were removed, only WBS numbers left!


SuccessorPredecessorstart finishdurationTaskID SuccessorPredecessorstart finishdurationTaskID

The process…

Dec 18th, 2006

Dec 18th, 2006

Dec 25th, 2006

Dec 31st, 2006

Jan 28th, 2007

Feb 4th, 2007

Received Schedule ‘2006-12-17’

Sent ‘HCP Free Analysis report’


‘HCP Full Analysis report’ ready.


‘HCP Full Analysis report’ ready.

PredecessorStart FinishDurationTaskID


Project’s structure

Jan 28th, 2007

1 Critical Path

(Partially Identical to MS-

Project)

10 HCPs with

Duration Slack=8 days

Dec 21st, 2006

10 Critical Paths

(Identical to MS-Project)

1 HCP with

Duration Slack=13 days


Hidden Critical Paths


Project stages:Construction of building for new lineInstallation of capital equipmentProduction startup

MAX IEGConsulting & management company

Allegro Microsystems – MA, USA A Silicon wafer fabrication facilitylocated in MA, USA

Case Study:Semiconductor Factory

Expansion


Project ProfileStart date: Aug 2004

End date: May 2005

(198.7 work days)

HCP analysis was

performed in Oct

2004 (after 2 months of work)

Schedule included

165 tasks


HCP Analysis Results

Duration Slack=20%, 118 paths found: 2 Critical Paths

2 HCP with 2 days DS

2 HCP with 3.2 days DS

1 HCP with 5.3 days DS

…

But that’s not all…


HCP Analysis Results(cont.)

Project scheduled duration: 198.7 days

Project actual duration: 173.1 days

� 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 work days without any work scheduled work days without any work scheduled work days without any work scheduled work days without any work scheduled in the HCP critical path!in the HCP critical path!in the HCP critical path!in the HCP critical path!

� The HCP Method discovered this by identifying a task which caused a delay due to a constraint

Hidden critical path with DS=5.3 days hasn’t started yet, concealing potential problems!


The Impact of HCP

Project completed 3 weeks early!

Contingency budget untouched!

Project total cost: $1.8M

Proactive Management

Project’s due date: May 11th, 2005

$250,000 contingency budget

Project budget: $2.5M

Reactive management

The client: “HCP is a very powerful tool for PMs at all levels!”


How does your project reflect in the HCP mirror?


Thank you for Listening!

Questions?We’ll be happy to answer!

Comments?We’d like to hear from you!


Contact Information

Name Tal Levanon

Title Founder & CTO

Company HCP Project Management Consulting

Email [email protected]

Phone 1-888-HCP-2080+972-72-250-1394 (outside USA)

Web-site www.hcp-consulting.com

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