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The Growing Role of Renewable Energy in the U.S. Energy Mix
November 15, 2019
Materials will be available at: www.eesi.org/111519cetsa
Tweet about the briefing: #eesitalk @eesionline
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State of Play forRenewable Energy
November 15, 2019EESI/CETSA Hill Briefing
Bill Parsons, Chief Operating OfficerAmerican Council on Renewable Energy
Founded in 2001, ACORE is a nonprofit organization that unites finance, policy and technology to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
U.S. Annual & Total Renewable Energy Installations:2nd Highest Deployment Ever in 2018
Source: BNEF/BCSE
0.72.9 3.0
5.7
9.9 11.2
6.2
9.4
18.3
8.1
12.8
16.4
22.9
19.0 19.5
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
apac
ity
(GW
)
An
nu
al In
stal
lati
on
s (G
W)
Biomass Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind
6
Continued High Level of U.S. Renewable Energy Investment (Also 2nd Highest Ever)
Source: BNEF
$5.7
$11.5
$28.3$30.5
$34.7
$23.0
$34.6
$50.1
$39.5$35.8
$38.0
$4…$45.5
$47.9$48.5
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
An
nu
al In
vest
men
t ($
US
Bill
ion
s)
Cumulative Investment
Cu
mu
lati
ve In
vest
men
t
7
Aggregate Global Investment Exceeds $3.2 Trillion
Global Renewable Energy Investment, 2004 - 2018
Source: BNEF
$2 $9 $11 $17 $26 $37 $42 $46 $57 $63$90
$121 $105$146
$91
$6 $12$28 $31
$35 $23$35
$50 $40 $36
$38
$48$46
$48
$49
$37$50
$65
$100$117 $109
$162
$192$154 $133
$159
$150$143
$133
$149
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cu
mu
lati
ve In
vest
men
t ($
US
Bill
ion
s)
An
nu
al In
vest
me
nt
($U
S B
illio
ns)
Cumulative Investment China United States Other
8
Key Drivers for U.S. Renewable Energy Growth
1. Ambitious state and local renewable standards in populous states
2. Increasing demand from American companies and consumers
3. Dramatic improvements in cost-effectiveness
4. A supportive and predictable tax platform
www.dsireusa.org (updated by ACORE) / Summer 2019
WA: 15% x 2020*
(100% x 2045)
OR: 50%x 2040* (large utilities)
CA: 60%
x 2030
(100% x 2045)
MT: 15% x 2015
NV: 50% x
2030*
(100% x 2050)UT: 20% x
2025*†
AZ: 15% x
2025*
ND: 10% x 2015
NM: 80%x 2040
(IOUs)
(100% by 2045
(IOUs))
HI: 100% x 2045
CO: 30% by 2020
(IOUs) *†(100% x 2050)
OK: 15% x
2015
MN:26.5%
x 2025 (IOUs)31.5% x 2020 (Xcel)
MI: 15% x
2021*†
WI: 10%
2015
MO:15% x
2021
IA: 105 MWIN:
10% x
2025†IL: 25%
x 2026
OH: 8.5% x
2026
NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs)
VA: 15%
x 2025†KS: 20% x 2020
ME: 100% x 2050
37 States + DCHave Renewable or Clean Energy Standards
Renewable portfolio standard
Renewable portfolio goal Includes non-renewable alternative resources* Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
†
U.S. Territories
DC
TX: 5,880 MW x 2015*
SD: 10% x 2015
SC: 2% 2021
NMI: 20% x 2016
PR: 100% x 2050
Guam: 25% x 2035
USVI: 30% x 2025
NH: 25.2% x 2025
VT: 75% x 2032
MA: 35% x 2030 + 1% each
year thereafter (new resources)
6.7% x 2020 (existing resources)
RI: 38.5% x 2035
CT: 40% x 2030
NY:70% x 2030
(100% x 2040)
PA: 18% x 2021†
NJ: 50% x 2030
DE: 25% x 2026*
MD: 50% x 2030
DC: 100% x 2032
Clean energy standard
Clean energy goal
Driver #1: State Renewable Energy Directives
10
State Renewable Policies Continue to Get More Ambitious
Aggressive state renewable standards in populous states
• California – 100% Carbon-Free by 2045 and 60% Renewable by 2030
• New Mexico – 100% Carbon-Free by 2045 and 80% Renewable by 2040
• Nevada –100% Carbon-Free by 2050 and 50% Renewable by 2030
• Hawaii – 100% Renewable by 2045
• Washington – 100% Renewable by 2045
• New York – 100% Carbon-Free by 2040 and 70% Renewable by 2030
• New Jersey – 50% Renewable by 2030
• Maine – 100% Renewable by 2050
• Maryland – 50% Renewable by 2030
• Massachusetts – 55% Renewable by 2050
11
More than 100 cities and 10 counties have adopted 100% clean energy goals
Ambitious Local Renewable Policies
• Chicago: 100% clean, renewable electricity for all buildings by 2035.
• Denver: 100% renewable electricity community-wide by 2030.
• Los Angeles: 100% clean, renewable electricity community-wide by 2045 and 100% carbon reduction across all sectors by 2050.
• Cleveland: 100% clean, renewable electricity by 2050.
• Portland: 100% renewable electricity community-wide by 2035.
• San Francisco: 100% renewable electricity community-wide by 2030.
• Washington, D.C.: 100% renewable energy by 2032.
• Wake County, North Carolina: 100% clean, renewable energy across all energy sectors by 2050.
• Multnomah County, Oregon: 100% renewable electricity community-wide by 2035, and 100% renewable energy for transportation, heating and cooling by 2050.
12
Driver #2A: Growing Consumer DemandA Record Year for Commercial & Industrial PPAs
Source: BNEF
U.S. Corporate PPA Volumes, by Technology (GW)
13
Driver #2B: Growing Consumer Demand
Annual U.S. Distributed Solar Installations, 2010 - 2018
246 305 496799
1268
21712638
2239 2386
337830
10751109
1054
1061
1707 2255 2069
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Me
gaw
atts
(M
W)
Residential PV Source: SEIA / GTM14
Driver #3: Dramatic Improvements in Cost-Effectiveness of Wind and Solar Power
Source: Lazard
69% Reduction in Wind LCOE since 200988% Reduction in Solar LCOE since 2009
15
The Cost-Effectiveness of Wind and Solar Power
Source: BNEF
Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Electricity Comparison, U.S. 2018
28 36 4067
9432 58
90 97 10569 9160
113
1… 178
399
318
3… 458
050
100150200250300350400450500
$ /
MW
h
16
Driver #4: A Supportive and PredictableTax Platform
100% 100% 100% 100%
86.7%
73.3%
33% 33% 33%
100%
80%
60%
40%
100%
80%
60%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
Fu
ll V
alu
e o
f
Cre
dit
Solar ITC Solar ITC + Safe Harbor Wind PTC Wind PTC + Safe Harbor2024
Wind PTC and Solar ITC Phase-Down Schedules
17
“The same way we look back today and have pride in the things our
grandparents did to defend democracy — our grandchildren are going to look back and have feelings about what we did today. What those feelings are will
depend on what we decide to do.”
Solomon Hsiang, Director, Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California -
Berkeley
18
Bill ParsonsChief Operating OfficerAmerican Council on Renewable [email protected]
Onlinewww.acore.orgTwitter: @ACORE
Address1150 Connecticut Ave NWSuite 401Washington, DC 20036
Thank you
19
Geothermal Energy is on the Brink of a Boom:And it’s because society’s energy transition needs it
Will Pettitt, PhDExecutive Director
EESI Briefing, The Growing Role of Renewable Energy in the U.S. Energy Mix,
Washington DC, 15th November 2019
15 November, 2019 EESI Briefing, Washington DC, November 2019 20
Supporting the Geothermal
Community
15 November, 2019 EESI Briefing, Washington DC, November 2019 21
Supporting the Geothermal
Community
15 November, 2019 EESI Briefing, Washington DC, November 2019 22
1. Power
Generation
2. Direct Use
3. Heat Pumps
4. EGS
From: DOE GeoVision Report,
Department of Energy, 2019
Supporting the Geothermal
Community
15 November, 2019 EESI Briefing, Washington DC, November 2019 23
Where is my clean energy coming from
on a still, dark, winter night in 2030?
What about 2050?
Supporting the Geothermal
Community
15 November, 2019 EESI Briefing, Washington DC, November 2019 24
Supporting the Geothermal
Community
15 November, 2019 EESI Briefing, Washington DC, November 2019 25
From: SB 100 Scoping Report – Scoping Workshop, California Energy Commission, October 2019
Supporting the Geothermal
Community
15 November, 2019 EESI Briefing, Washington DC, November 2019 26
Supporting the Geothermal
Community
• Clean
• Reliable
• Flexible
• Balancing
• Resilient
• Stable
• Facilitator
Renewable Energy that WorksAround the Clock
. . .
. . .. . . .
15 November, 2019 EESI Briefing, Washington DC, November 2019 27
Supporting the Geothermal
Community
15 November, 2019 EESI Briefing, Washington DC, November 2019 28
Installed conventional
geothermal
3.6 GWe*
Conventional
geothermal under
development
1.2 GWe*
Geothermal by 2050
60+ GWe**
Viable EGS potential
>>100 GWe***
* After: GEA 2015, 2016
** From: DOE GeoVision, 2019
*** From: Ziagos et al., 2013
GeoVisionHarnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet
There is vast potential for economic geothermal
expansion in the United States
60+ GWGeothermal Power
10,000+New Wells Per Year
17,500District Heating Systems
28 millionGeo Heat Pumps
RegulatoryTimeframes
WellCosts
GeothermalAnywhere
reduce
lower
enable
www.energy.gov/geovision
Slide courtesy of NREL
By 2050
Supporting the Geothermal
Community
Committee Hearings
• June 20, 2019 – Senate Committee on Energy
and Natural Resources – Hearing to Examine
Geothermal Development
• September 19, 2019 – House of Representatives
Committee on Natural Resources,
Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral
Resources – legislative hearing to review the
“Enhancing Geothermal Production on Federal
Lands Act”
• November 14, 2019 – House of Representatives
Committee on Science, Space and Technology,
Subcommittee on Energy – Water And
Geothermal Power: Unearthing The Next Wave Of
Energy Innovation
Draft Legislation
• Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Senator Ron
Wyden (D-Ore.), “Geothermal Energy Opportunities
(GEO) Act”.
• Chairman Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Ranking Member
Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), Senate Energy and Natural
Resources Committee, “The Advanced Geothermal
Innovation Leadership Act of 2019” (the “AGILE” Act).
• Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho) and Congressman Russ
Fulcher (R-Idaho), S.2270/H.R.4026, “Enhancing
Geothermal Production on Federal Lands Act”
• Tax related draft legislation: "Renewable Electricity Tax
Credit Equalization Act“ (House); “Tax Extender and
Disaster Relief Act” (Senate); Taxpayer Certainty and
Disaster Relief Act” (House).
15 November, 2019 EESI Briefing, Washington DC, November 2019 30
Supporting the Geothermal
Community
17 June, 2019 IPGT Meeting, Lausanne, June 2019 31
Berkshire Hathaway
Energy – Geothermal
development in Southern
California could also
supply over two-thirds of
the world’s lithium
demand in 2025! And at
competitive cost…
15 November, 2019 EESI Briefing, Washington DC, November 2019 32
The Growing Role of Renewable Energy in the U.S. Energy Mix:
Sustainable Biomass
Peter ThompsonProject CoordinatorNovember 15, 2019
Mission:
The Biomass Thermal Energy Council (BTEC) advances the sustainable use of wood and agricultural biomass for clean, efficient heat and combined heat and power to meet America’s energy needs and strengthen local economies.
Focus Areas:
• Policy and Government Affairs• Technical and Regulatory Affairs• Education and Outreach
About BTEC
• Residential – heating (space heating, water heating)
• Commercial/Institutional/Industrial – heating, cooling, electricity
• Biomass Power Plants – electricity
• Export Products – pellets and wood chips
• Emerging technologies – torrefied wood, biocrude, and biodiesel
Sectors Using Woody Biomass
Forest Areas Are Stable
Forest Area and Population Growth
Forest Growth vs. Removal
Issues Facing US Forests• Development Pressures & Land Use Change
• Lack of Financial Returns from Forests• More Development
• Forest Management• Lack of Funding • Diseases• Wildfires
• Rapidly Shifting Energy Markets• Cheap Fossil Energy • Sustainable Wood Fuels Can’t Compete
• Climate Change
Spruce killed by bark beetles (CO)
Loblolly Pine killed by Southern Pine Beetle (GA)
Ponderosa Pine killed by mountain pine beetle (SD) Bark Beetles in California
The Camp fire was the deadliest and most
destructive wildfire on record in California
history with a death toll of 85 people.
Benefits of Wood Energy
• Helps re-establish markets for low value wood
• Private sector: Allows for forest owners to make forest management
more profitable while reducing wildfire threat
• Public Sector: Wildfire suppression is the largest budget item of the
USFS. Responsible management of federal forests would save
taxpayer dollars.
• Increase rural economic development, job creation, and energy savings.
• Private forests support over 2.4 million rural jobs.
• Cost savings of nearly 50% in recent winters compared to heating oil.
The Key Barriers for Industry
1. Biomass heating equipment (residential, commercial, industrial) have initial high capital costs (at low volume) compared to fossil fuel heating systems (at high volume).
2. Low-value wood requires markets to be economically viable for use.
3. Comprehensive carbon intensity accounting and pricing for all energy options.
Pending Legislation
Biomass Thermal Utilization (BTU) Act – H.R. 1479, S. 628
- Extends investment tax credit to biomass heating systems (Residential, commercial and industrial) – based on system efficiency
Wood Heaters Emissions Reductions Act – S. 2274
- $75M (annually) grant Program to remove and replace old systems
Existing Programs With Opportunities for Improvement
EPA Renewable Fuel Standard
- Electric pathway and fair implementation, possible expansion to include thermal
Community Wood Energy & Innovation Program (2018 Farm Bill)
- $25 million to install wood energy systems and innovative wood products facilities
Bioenergy Program for Advanced Biofuels (2018 Farm Bill)
- Provides payments to fuel producers to expand production levels
Policy Solutions
Co Sponsor!
• Biomass Thermal Utilization (BTU) Act – H.R. 1479, S. 628
• Wood Heaters Emissions Reductions Act – S. 2274
Work with Us
• To direct EPA to expand the Renewable Fuel Standard to include wood pellets and chips
Thanks
• Bioenergy Program for Advanced Biofuels (2018 Farm Bill)
• Community Wood Energy & Innovation Program (2018 Farm Bill)
Actions to Take
Biogas!
With what infrastructurewill we manage:
66,500,000 TONS of food waste each year
The sludge from 31 BILLION gallons of
wastewater EVERY DAY The manure AND
NUTRIENTS from 8 BILLIONcows, chicken, turkey and
pigs
The US Biogas Market
Current253 on Farm1,269 Water66 Food Scrap645 at Landfills
Potential8,300 on Farm4,000 Wastewater1,000 Food Scrap440 at Landfills
14,000+Potential
New Biogas
Systems
2,200+Operational
BiogasSystems
Investment and job potential
• 13,500 US Biogas Systems =
• – $40 billion in capital deployment
• – 335,000 short –term construction jobs and 23,000 permanent jobs
Biogas/AD Systems Are Worth It
Capacity factor:
• Solar: 17% (EIA, NJ)
• Wind: 22% (average worldwide)
• Biogas/AD: 95% (DOE, UW)
How much are the non-energy benefits worth?
• Waste management • Nutrient recycling • Reduced or negative GHGs • Revenue “insurance” for farmers• Odor reduction • Soil health
Policy
Renewable Fuel Standard
Infrastructure
Climate
Watershed Protection
Farm Bill
Tax Extenders
Ag
Approps
The Growing Role of Renewable Energy in the U.S. Energy Mix
Materials will be available at: www.eesi.org/111519cetsa
Tweet about the briefing: #eesitalk @eesionline
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