The Global Warming Debate

Kaushik Srinivasan

9S1/9J

“If all insects on Earth disappeared, within 50 years all life on Earth would end. If all human beings disappeared from the Earth, within 50 years all forms of life would flourish.’

- Biologist Jonas Salk

The Global Warming DebateGlobal warming is the increase in temperature in near-surface atmosphere. A million years ago, the average temperature on earth has fluctuated predominantly due to natural occurrences such as volcanic and tectonic activity, insolation, fluctuating distance between the Sun and the Earth, etc.,. Also, the Ice Ages changed and lowered the average temperature for a certain period of time.

The average temperature began to rise significantly after the Industrial Revolution. Industrialization grew in cities to accommodate personal requirements such as electricity, transport, clothing, etc. Machines were manufactured to reduce human labour; in turn it used up fossil fuels and polluted the atmosphere, thus strengthening the Greenhouse Effect.

The Greenhouse effect is a process where the thermal radiation is absorbed and reflected back to the surface by Greenhouse Gases, thus increasing average temperature. The amount of Greenhouse Gases is directly proportionate to the average temperature – the more amounts of Greenhouse Gases, the higher the temperature. The primary Greenhouse Gases are Nitrous oxide, Methane, Carbon dioxide and Water vapour.

Majority of the Greenhouse gases emitted is due to human activities. Carbon dioxide is emitted from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. Deforestation is also a significant contributor. Methane is emitted in agricultural areas – rice fields and livestock – and also the decay in landfill sites. Ruminants on grass fields such as cows which have multiple digesting tracks release huge amounts of methane which also contributes a pinch. Nitrogen-dependent crops require nitrogen-fertilised soil. The excess amounts are evaporated into the atmosphere and adds to the greenhouse gases. Water vapour is extracted from the surface by evaporation. Vapour released by airplanes and soot from burning also affects the contributions.

Global warming is caused by and causes a chain reaction. Industries which burn fossil fuels release bulk amounts of Greenhouse gases such as Carbon dioxide and Sulphur dioxide. These disperse into the atmosphere and elevate the content of Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The Sun’s ultraviolet rays penetrate the atmosphere and directly heat up the surface. As the surface gets hotter, it releases the heat in infrared wavelengths. Some of them escape into space, while others are retained due to Greenhouse gases (these particles have the capability to withstand the infrared rays; making themselves hotter) – the more greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere, the more heat is reflected back. It eventually leads to the heating of the Earth’s atmosphere. This causes ice-caps to melt, which ultimately raises the sea level. Habitat is also lost, which might drive the specific species to near extinction. All the organisms which are dependent on that specific species for food will also being to perish, thus causing an imbalance in the ecosystem. Rising of sea level will cause flooding in low-lying areas (Maldives’ government have begun to save money to buy a new homeland in case the country disappears into the sea). These floods can destroy agricultural plains and homes. Food crops destroyed can cause famine to linger in the

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region. Economy fails in the region due to lack of export. It also increases the likelihood of more extreme events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, storm, hail, drought and many others.

Global warming will have a major impact on our future, albeit not all scientists believe in global warming. Even renowned scientists disregard the fact that global warming is caused by human activity – they believe in natural causes. Some find fault in the accuracy of reports and experiments. Nicola Scafetta, a research scientist in the physics department at Duke University stated in his report, "At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system. A climatic stabilization or cooling until 2030–2040 is forecast by the phenomenological model." Clearly, his mind set and research is different from others.

Super Storm Sandy, a recent hurricane which blew the east coast of America is an example of a by-product of global warming. This storm sparked a debate on whose actions was it caused by – humans or nature? Some meteorologists believe that Sandy was caused by long term human activities. They also believe that this storm is just the beginning to various stronger ones. Carol Werner with the Environmental and Energy Study Institute says climate change scientists have long predicted that intense storms, droughts, and forest fires would result from the rising temperatures and sea levels caused by global warming.

Meanwhile those opposing the human-caused disaster such as Patrick Michaels, Cato Institute said, “It was the moon’s fault. This storm hit at full moon which raises the tide there a couple of feet, so the storm set a record. If it had occurred any other time in the lunar”

As mentioned earlier, the temperature has risen drastically after the Industrial Revolution which has been illustrated by the graph below - the graph is a collaboration of different data from different organizations. It shows that after 1950, there has been a significant increase in the temperature in all graphs. According to the graph, the average temperature has increased by 1°C since 1950.

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US President G. Bush denied special environmental exemptions for China and India since they "are emitting increasingly large quantities of greenhouse gases, which have consequences for the entire global climate". The US and the EU repeatedly chant that China and India, as the second and fourth largest emitters of greenhouse gases, cannot wash their hands of responsibilities by claiming differential treatment. But what is out of their picture is China and India account for more than 30% of the world’s inhabitants. If this was looked upon on a different perspective – measuring pollutants on a national basis and on a per capita basis, we would be able to see a difference.

Per capita emission is the unit of comparison, Australia, UK and Chad with much smaller populations, are far above China and India in pollutant rankings (see table below). From this perspective, the list is topped by small countries with energy-intensive industries, and the large developing nations such as India and China look significantly less polluting.

Greenhouse Gas emitters on national basis Greenhouse gas emitters on a per capita basis (tons of carbon per person per annum)

1. China: 7,216 Metric Tonnes2. US: 6,931 Metric Tonnes 3. Brazil: 2,856 Metric Tonnes 4. Indonesia: 2,046 Metric Tonnes 5. Russia: 2,028 Metric Tonnes 6. India: 1,870 Metric Tonnes 7. Japan: 1,387 Metric Tonnes 8. Germany: 1,005 Metric Tonnes 9. Canada: 808 Metric Tonnes 10. Mexico: 696 Metric Tonnes

1. Australia: 19.6 tonnes2. United States: 17.7 tonnes3. Russia: 11.2 tonnes4. Germany: 9.3 tonnes5. UK: 8.4 tonnes6. China: 5.8 tonnes7. World average: 4.5 tonnes8. India: 1.4 tonnes9. Africa average: 1.1 tonnes10. Chad: 0.03 tonnes

The Guardian, 21 April 2011

Some people have been looking at the brighter side of global warming. The Arctic Ice has melted exponentially since the starting of this millennium. This has caused much tension in environmentalist. Although proves to be a dangerous situation, for some Scandinavian sailors this has brought a smile on their faces. Companies have taken advantage of the receding Arctic sea ice to plan several voyages across the north of Russia shows that the "northern sea route" can save even a medium-sized bulk carrier 18 days and 580 tonnes of bunker fuel on a journey between northern Norway and China. The voyage would normally take upwards of 40 days. This route will save time, money, fuel and emission. This could save them £180,000-300,000 on each voyage, they say.

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On 26th October 2012, 100s of scientists from different countries stated that Global Warming is accelerating. The year 2011 was believed to be the hottest 12 months we have ever lived in and it showed the 2nd smallest area of ice on record. Pictures now show that Arctic glaciers are now melting 30 times faster than they were a decade ago. In the past hundred years, sea levels have risen 10 inches and by 2050 (like picture on the right), it would have risen another foot. If that is true, parts of low-lying cities like Miami and New Orleans will be underwater.

The way these scientist say that these disasters are man-made is that they have noticed all the greenhouse gases are on a rise and they are at its highest point since they have been keeping record. Scientists also say that they were not able to detect natural rises. Thus stating that man’s actions is the main cause of increase in greenhouse gas content.

Experts on global warming have conflicting ideas and thoughts around the causes for the global warming. There have been numerous articles and research on how to efficiently reduce carbon emissions and how global warming can affect the future generation. These articles give the readers multiple perspectives. One such article regarding CO2 emissions posted by username ‘Nakor’ on a BBC article in which he said, “I do have to say though to those here quoting that 97% of CO2 is natural. That may be the case but that extra 3% of man-made CO2 might be all that it takes to throw the cycle out of balance. Just like it's that last pint down the pub that gets you drunk when you forget the fact that you've been drinking all afternoon.” An another comment in the same article with a different perspective was posted by ‘Episkopian’ in which he stated, “It is acknowledged by almost all relevant scientific bodies that the earth is getting warmer but that comes under the heading of Climate Change. I seriously doubt that man is having any really significant effect on climate. Until there is universal acceptance that mankind contributes to global warming I will continue to believe that this view is derived from biased analysis or misinterpreted data.”

Some scientists also say that it might be too late to stop global warming. Greenhouse gases pumped into the planet's atmosphere will continue to grow even if the industrialized nations cut their emissions down. At this rate, during the time they use to cut their emissions down, so much greenhouse gases would be released that it would make it inevitable to stop it in later stages. While others believe there is still little time to act, and the time is now.

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