the global earthquake model (gem) caribbean regional programme-an introduction
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THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL(GEM) CARIBBEAN REGIONAL
PROGRAMME AN INTRODUCTION
Dr. Myron W. Chin PhD, CEng, FICE, FIStructE, FAPETTGEM OPERATIONAL MANAGER FOR THE CARIBBEAN
SEISMIC RESEARCH CENTRE, UWI
at the
Port Authority Conference Room, Port of Spain Trinidad
31stJanuary 2012
Copyright Myron Chin 2011
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SUMMARY OF
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- TYPES OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE CARIBBEAN- SOME EXAMPLES OF DAMAGE
- LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN REGIONAL PROGRAMME (GCRP)
- FORMATION OF SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS (WGs)- SOME OF PROPOSED RESEARCH PROJECTS OF WGs
- ACTIVE FAULTS CENTRAL RANGE FAULT, T&T
- BUILDING CODE FOR T&T
- BUILDING INVENTORY
- ME EXAMPLE F THE P TENTIAL U E F EM T L
- CONCLUDING REMARKS
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z
The entire Caribbean Basin is prone tosocio-natural and man-made disasters
z ECLAC estimates that the disaster
impact is over 1.5 billion US dollars/yearzA number of national, regional (ODPM,
CDEMA, SRC, ACS) and internationalorganizations (PAHO, OAS) arecurrently working in this area.
z Now we have GEM
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Geological:
z Earthquakes
z
z Tsunamis
z Landslides
Meteorological:
z Hurricanes
z orm surge an wave ac on
z Torrential rains
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Caribbean plate (after Weber)
Tobago
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Vertical neotectonics (tilting)(after Weber)
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El Pilar fault historic + instrumental earthquakes
(6.8)
Mendoza (2000)
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Perez et al. 2001
NA
NA
sana
17N
MF
san
a
FM
sana
MAR CARIBE
SFPF
VENEZUELA
0 mm/a
FP
20
VENEZUELA20 mm/yr
CANOA
-68 -58-74 W
6
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MAJOR FAULTS IN TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO (After Lloyd Lynch)
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Trinidad and Tobago Damaging Earthquakes
Size, Intensity, Chronology and Locations
7.8 (IX)1766
a er oy ync
Energ
y
S
eismic
7.3 (VIII)
7.4 (VI)2007
6.6 (VIII)1825
7 (VII)1888
1918
6.3 (VIII)1954
6.55.9
6.7
6.1
6.7 (VIII)1997
6.26.3
.
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
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Recent Seismic Hazard Map
of Trinidad
a er oy ync
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TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF 1997-04-02(After Joan Latchman)
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14
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Natural Hazards
( As stated by Tony Gibbs)
Vulnerable tourism facilities Special concerns of small island
Destructive recent Hurricanes and
Earthquakes
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SOME EXAMPLES OF
THE CARIBBEAN REGION
- - -
-MAGNITUDE 5.6 & 6.1- -SAN SOUCI DUE TO HEAVY RAINS 2011
- MUD VOLCANO IN PIPARO-DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE 2004-11-21-MAGNITUDE 6.0
-HAITI EARTHQUAKE - 2010-01-12-MAGNITUDE 7.0
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TYPICAL DAMAGE TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF
1997-04-02 (MAGNITUDE 5.6) (Photo courtesy Dr. Joan Latchman)
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LANDSLIDE AT SAN SOUCI -2011-12-04
(PHOTO COURTESY S. LALLA)
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LANDSLIDE AT SAN SOUCI -2011-12-04
(PHOTO COURTESY S. LALLA)
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MUD VOLCANO AT PIPARO
(Photo courtesy of GSTT)
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OF 2004-11-21( MAGNITUDE 6.0)
Portsmouth Methodist Church Recreational Centre(Photos courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
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TYPICAL DAMAGE -2-
DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21
Portsmouth Methodist ChurchRecreational Centre
Photocourtes Dr. R. Clarke
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TYPICAL DAMAGE -3-
DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21
Portsmouth RC Church Front Wall and CornersCollapse (Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
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TYPICAL DAMAGE -4-
DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21
Portsmouth RC Church Close-up of Collapse(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
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TYPICAL DAMAGE -5 FLAT ROOF COLLAPSE
- - . .
(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
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TYPICAL DAMAGE -6 OUT OF PLANE COLLAPSE- -
(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)
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TYPICAL DAMAGE -7 FAILURE OF COLUMNS- -
(Photocourtesy Dr. D. Gay)
THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM)
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THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM)
OECDs Global Science Forum, aimed at
design, development and deployment of uniformopen standards and tools for earthquake risk
assessment worldwide
PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP
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PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP
10 countries 7 rivate or anisations have they contribute
have adhered sofar partnered up with GEM so far13.6 M Euro
discussions and the OECD World Bank UNESCO
negotiations are ongoingwith 15+ others
UN/ISDR, IAEE and IASPEI are associateparticipants
SCIENTIFIC FRAMEWORK OF GEM
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SCIENTIFIC FRAMEWORK OF GEM
DecisionMaking Tools
Con ngency Planning, Territorial
Planning, CostBenefit
Anal ysi s, Ri sk
overnance etc.
Risk and Impact AnalysisDamage and loss maps, loss exceedance curves,
, ,
economy
HazardProbability, Intensity,
ExposureValue, Loca on;
VulnerabilityPhysical, Social,
Loca on, ,
Economic
,
Func ons, Indicators
FIRST PRODUCTS
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FIRST PRODUCTS
What is ?
OpenQuake is an open source software application that allows users to
compute seismic hazard and risk on any scale, developed as an open source
project, available for download from http://openquake.org.
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ROLE OF GEMS EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
COMPONENTS TOGETHER
STAY UPDATED
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STAY UPDATED
GEM Website www.globalquakemodel.org
News, results, calls,
www.globalquakemodel.org
epor v
Available from website and hard-copy
GEM Brochure
Available from website and hard-copy
Bi-monthly e-Newsletter
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LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN
PROGRAMME
the main mechanism through which the GEM tools
globally used standard. The RPs involve local
ex erts usin GEM software and tools, who eneratelocal data and validate the data and standards thatare being created on the global level.- e nst tut on o tructura ng neers ar eanDivision) hosted a presentation
Trinidad on 15 October 2010.
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LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN
on e-In January 2011, the GEM Foundation (hereinafter
Centre (SRC) of The University of the West Indies,
Caribbean. Funding became available in March
2011 at which time the GEM Operational Manager,Dr. Myron Chin, was appointed. He will, incollaboration with all players/stakeholders from the
ar ean commun y, spear ea eimplementation of the GEM initiative in the Insular
Regional Programme (RP) for the Caribbean
HIGHLIGHTS OF GEM THREE-DAY
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HIGHLIGHTS OF GEM THREE-DAY
WORKSHOP- MAY 2-4,2011 TO
LAUNCH GEM REGIONALPROGRAMME IN THE CARIBBEAN
-OPENED BY HON. MINISTER OF SCIENCE,
TECHNOLOGY AND TERTIARY EDUCATION
- . ,
AND HELEN CROWLEY OF GEM SECRETARIAT AND
TWENTY OTHERS-ACTIVE PARTICIPATION BY SOME 68 PARTICIPANTS
FROM NINE CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES
- SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS FORMED- FULL DETAILS OF WORKSHOP CAN BE FOUND AT:
http://uwiseismic.com/General.aspx?id=91
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HON. MINISTER FAZAL KARIM
OPENS GEM WORKSHOP
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PRESENTATION BY DR. RUI PINHO
SECRETARY-GENERAL OF GEM
PRESENTATION BY DR MARCO
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PRESENTATION BY DR. MARCO
PAGANI GEM CO-ORDINATOR FOR
HAZARD
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PRESENTATION BY DR. HELEN
FOR RISK
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GEM WORKSHOP 2-4 MAY 2011
GROUP PHOTOGRAPH
GEM CARIBBEAN SEVEN REGIONAL
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GEM CARIBBEAN SEVEN REGIONAL
HAZARD- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR Dr. Walter- - -
Group 1: Active Faults
UWI MONA, JAMAICA)
Participants:Franc Au emar y Luz Ro rguez FUNVISIS, Venezue aLyndon Brown (Earthquake Unit, UWI Mona, Jamaica),
Wa ne Adams Consultant amaicaBarbara Carby (DRRC, UWI Mona, Jamaica)Joan Latchman SRC, UWI, Trinidad
, ,Krishna Persad, Krishna Persad & Assoc. Ltd, Trinidad
Paleoseismology: locked or creeping CRF?(after Weber)
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Paleoseismology: locked or creeping CRF?(after Weber)
(2001)Prentice et al. 2010
(2001, 2002)
CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)
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CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)
CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)
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CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)
o ocene
FAULT
2002 Trench 9
Trinidad and Tobago Pipeline Network( ft Ll d L h)
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(after Lloyd Lynch)
GEM CARIBBEAN 7 REGIONAL
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GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL
RISK- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR -Dr. Myron Chin
Leaders of Sub-Groups:Building Codes: Carlos Buron
Critical Facilities: Wayne Adams
Retrofitting: Didier Deris xper u gemen : n ony arre
Building Inventory: Kevin Granger
, ,Barrie, Mona GeoInformatics ( Sub-group co-opted on
2011-05-12
Databases: Myron Chin, SRC, UWI, TrinidadMembers:to be co-opted by Leaders of Groups/SubGroups
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EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)
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DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOR
EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)
Project Manager: U.W.I Disaster Risk
Reduction Centre (DRRC) at Mona, UWI
in Jamaica.
Main Sponsor: World Bank
Completion Date: December 2011.
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To develop a methodology for seismic risk
assessment in the Caribbean forthree pilot
States: Jamaica, Grenada and Barbados.
To provide guidelines and open-source
loss using available socio-economic data.
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Seismic hazard assessment for Jamaica in terms of
. .
For Barbados and Grenada: we will use the seismichazard results of the Eastern Caribbean Project(SRC/EUCENTRE).
Development/Adapted Fragility Curves o ca on, es ng an va a on o
software
of geo-referenced data
Risk evaluation
VULNERABILITY AND
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VULNERABILITY AND
SURVEY ON DECEMBER 2010 - Kingston
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g
Masonr HousesPrecast houses
Reinforced concreteapartments
Modern Reinforced ConcreteBuilding at New Kingston
Historical Buildings
Reinforced concrete
buildings on slopes Wooden house
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DEVELOPMENT OF FRAGILITY CURVES
FOR pre-cast ouses
Heavy roof
Connections between panels areeffected by welding together
embedded in the edge ribs of thepanels.
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| GEM collaboration:
- Collaboration with GEM in terms of assistance with
the OpenQuake so tware development.
- Two of our Research Assistants from SRC spent two
end October 2011 to learn about OpenQuake and to
analyse the data collected under the DRRC Risk Atlas
ro ec n or er o assess s app ca y o eCaribbean Region.
GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING CODES
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GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING CODES
ONE GEM PROJECT IS A NATIONAL BUILDING CODE FOR
T&T
GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING
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INVENTORY LEADER KEVIN GRANGER
1. Develop a Crowdsourcing model which is appropriate to this Region and in keeping withGEM Standards.
Crowdsourcing refers to the act of outsourcing tasks, traditionally performed by
employees or contracted labour, to a relatively undefined, large group of people or
community (a crowd), through an open call. I have chosen to refine this Wikipediadefinition to include the word relatively as the intention of this project is to break up
.
The Bounded Crowdwill be those participators who will not have any specific experience
in structural data collection and will be limited in the data that they can submit. These
participators will be responsible for creating the Level 1 attributes as defined in the GEMTaxonomy. Level 1 attributes will be those attributes that are easily observable and will
also include remote sensing, rapid assessments by municipalities (admin staff),
engineers, architects, technicians, and social scientists.
experience in structural data collection techniques to be responsible for submitting Level
2 attributes. These attributes will contain detailed structural and non-structural
information obtained from a detailed building assessment by a qualified engineer.
Partnership with GEM appointed agencies/tools or other groups like UShahidi (see
www.ushahidi.com) would allow us to create a web-based system that can assemble
rank and filter the input from the crowd and present weighted results.
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GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL
WORKING GROUPS (Conted)Group 6: Vulnerability
Members: -Col. Dave Williams, Mr. Allan Stewart, Grisel
Morejon, CENAIS, Cuba, Jillian St. Bernard, SRC, UWILeader of Sub-Group: Tony Gibbs
-Effectiveness of Compliance Mechanisms
Members: - Didier Deris, Jan Vermeiren
Group 7: Socio-Economic Impact (SEI)-OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR Myron Chin
Leader of Sub-Group:- Jan Vermeiren
-Disaster Financing:
Members-Didier Deris, C. Rogers, Tony Gibbs, Fernando
Guasch, CENAIS, Cuba
- Valuation real estate
ea er o u - roup: acey war s o-op e y . n
- Education and Outreach
- Members: Alia Juman, SRC, UWI, Ibia Vega, CENAIS, Cuba
SOME EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL USE OF GEM TOOLS AND
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SOME EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL USE OF GEM TOOLS AND
MODELS IN THE CARIBBEAN.
GEMs model and tools are envisaged to support a wide range of users, both from the
public and private sectors, regional and national organizations, non-governmental
o es an a so n v ua s n ear qua e prone areas.
The following examples are some of the potential use of GEM tools and models:-
A countrys Minister of Planning and Development may wish to find out how theeffect of different possible earthquake scenarios might affect the Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) of the country.
A national disaster organization would like to see the expected distribution of damage
and fatalities within an urban area for a selected scenario earthquake for emergency.
A reinsurer or national primary insurer would like to calculate the average annual
loss and probable maximum loss to a portfolio of buildings (based on their own input
exposure data).
A geologist would like to carry out a new tectonic analysis in proximity to a dam, and
would like to download data on active faults as a starting point for his/her study.
An engineer who is working on the design of a bridge located in a zone of seismic
,
different performance limit states.An individual would like to understand how hazardous the area is, where (s)he is
planning to build a house.
CONCLUDING
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CONCLUDING
In concluding this Presentation, it is appropriate to make the
following remarks-
-GEM IS A GLOBAL ATTEMPT AT COLLABORATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF OPEN-SOURCE
SOFTWARE, TRANSPARENT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT
THE WORLD AND AS SUCH PROVIDES A CATALYST FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION
NOT ONLY IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD
-INSURANCE/REINSURANCE COMPANIES
- GEM CARIBBEAN RP PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO BRING TOGETHER EARTHQUAKE
TOGETHER IN ADAPTING THE TOOLS AND MODELS DEVELOPED BY GEM SO THATEARTHQUAKE RISK CAN BE BETTER ASSESSED IN THE VARIOUS ISLANDS OF THE
CARIBBEAN.
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