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PRELIMINARY VERSION
The German Energiewende
from an Industry Perspective
1
Conference - SGEI in the electricity sector
Vilnius, 23 June 2015
Dennis Rendschmidt
The Voice of
German Industry
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Introduction: BDI - Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie
The BDI – as the federation of German industries – is representing 38
German industry associations vis-à-vis policy makers.
2
Umbrella organisation
38 industry associations
~100.000 Companies~ 8 Mio. employees
Voice of German Industry vis-à-vis: - German Government,- European Union (EU),- Public and Press- international partners
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Selected Energiewende targets
The German government has set different targets to shift the whole
energy system to amore sustainable one.
3
-40%
18%
35%
-20%-10% -10%
-55%
30%
50%
-70%
45%
65%
-80%
60%
80%
-50%
-25%
-40%
2020 2030 2040 2050
Share of
renewables in
gross energy
consumption
(%)
Reduction of
greenhouse
gas emissions
(%)
Share of
renewables in
gross
electricity
consumption
(%)
Reduction of
primary energy
consumption
vs. 2008 (%)
Reduction of
electricity
consumption
vs. 2008 (%)
Reduction of
energy
consumption
for
transportation
vs. 2005 (%)
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Timeline of scheduled nuclear phase-out in Germany
No nuclear power plant is going to generate electricity in Germany
from 2022 onwards.
4
Source: BDEW
20.490
12.068(-8.422) 10.793
(-1.275) 9.509(-1.284) 8.107
(-1.402)
4.049(-4.058)
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
202
0
202
2
7% of electricity generation
(2010)
23
%o
f e
lectr
icity g
en
era
tio
n
(20
10
)
Yet: quantity of future
necessary baseload
still unclear.
Current market environment discourages investment in conventional generation.
Regional perspective to
the nuclear phaseout.
Southern-Germany
especially affected.
Baseload capacity will
need to be replaced.
Development of installed capacity of nuclear power
in Germany (MW)
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Gross electricity generation and base load in Germany 2010
Electricity generation in Germany has been highly dependent on fossil
fuels and nuclear.
5
Source: BDEW
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Gross electricity generation 2012
During the last years the share of renewables has increased.
6
Source: BDEW
Nuclear: 17,7%
Fossil fuels: 57,1%
Wind: 8,6%
Biomass: 5,8%
Hydro: 3,8%
Photovoltaics: 6,1%
Waste (50 %): 0,9%
RES: 25,2%
Gross electricity production Q1-Q3 2012 in Germany: 408,1 bn. kWh
Lignite
Hard coal
Gas
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Change of energy landscape in Germany (schematic)
The Energiewende is fostering various technologies and changing the
German energy landscape.
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Today Trend 2020+
Stromerzeugung (erneuerbar) Stromerzeugung (konventionell) Netze Speicher Verbrauch
Umspannwerk
Konventionelle
Kraftwerke
Verbraucher
Wasserkraft
Windenergie
onshore
Wasserkraft
Umspannwerk
Gewerbe
Industrie
Eigenversorgung
(z. B. KWK2)
Konventionelle Kraftwerke
Intelligente
Netzsteuerung
(Smart Grid)
Private Haushalte
mit (anteiliger) Selbstversorgung
und lokalen Speichern
Speicher
(z. B. Power-to-gas)
Windenergie
onshore
Windenergie
offshoreGeothermie
Bioenergie
1. HGÜ = Hochspannungsgleichstromübertragung 2. KWK = Kraft-Wärme-KopplungSource: BCG
Transportnetz
Verteilnetz
HGÜ1
Elektromobilität
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Forecast of installed capacity of renewable energy
The expansion of renewable energies will be largely based on volatile
energy sources.
8
Source: Prognos
maximum
annual load
2011
minimum
annual load
2011 PV
Wind
Other
renewables
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Residual load curve 2012 (load minus renewable feed-in) Germany
Currently loads in Germany exhibit rather moderate fluctuations…
9
Source: Prognos
Assumption: must-run-capacity: 20 GW
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Residual load curve 2030 (load minus renewable feed-in) Germany
… whereas volatility will be much higher in 2030 including negative
values.
10
Source: Prognos
Assumption: must-run-capacity: 10 GW
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Forecast of cumulated necessary investments into German electricity system (target scenario)
Implementing the Energiewende requires investments of ~ € 200 b into
the German electricity sector until 2030.
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Summe
bis 2050
~ 669
~ 200 for
Energiewende
implementation
Electricity
generationStorage Grid Consumption
Total until
2030
Total until
2050
Cumulated investments
billion Euros
Maintenance
Expansion
transmission grid
Expansion distribution grid
Source: BCG
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Forecast of revenue potentials, fuel imports and CO2 emissions
The Energiewende means worldwide revenue potentials with end
products of more than € 70 b p.a. for German enterprises in 2020.
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Source: BCG
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Forecast of unit cost development of electricity
On the other hand unit cost of electricity will rise by 15 – 35%
compared to continuing the current system until 2030.
13
Source: BCG
Asset annuity 2010
Investments renewables
Investments conventional
Investments storage
Investments grid/ smart meter
Imports
O&M
CO2 (70 €/t in 2050)
Fuel cost
Additional fuel cost
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Energiewende cost distribution for electricity consumers
Currently, households and industry cover more than 2/3 of
Energiewende cost.
14
Source: BDEW
20,4 bn. €
Industry: 6,1 bn. €
private households: 7,2 bn. €
commerce trade, services:
4,0 bn. €
Public institutions: 2,4 bn. €
Agriculture: 0,5 bn. €
Transport: 0,2 bn. €
Costs that have to be borne by the customers for the EEG 2013: 20,4 bn. €
Industry, commerce,
trade, services and
transport: 10,3 bn. €
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Comparison of electricity prices
German electricity prices are already very high in international terms.
15Source: Eurostat; IEA.
SME
Private Household
€ct/kWh
+19%9.7
15.912.111.510.49.29.58.7
11.714.0
7.29.1
5.2
14.213.913.2
18.6
25.9
5.95.98.9
DenmarkItalySpain
+39%
CzechPolandFranceTurkeyEU27GermanyIndiaChinaUSA
30.0
21.518.216.8
15.0
UK
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Industry prices electricity and gas – Germany vs. USA
Electricity and gas prices evolve into locational disadvantages in
Germany and over Europe.
102
2030
0
50
100
150
Gas cost (industry)/electricity cost (industry)
(in €/MWhth/€/MWhel w/o tax & dues)
9096
110
119123
202520202015201020052000
100
65
52
21
98
61
50
16
90
44
48
16
Industry prices electricity and gas – Germany vs. USA
Cost advantage of industrial
base US
Shale gas revolution in US: gas price drop
for industry ~ 40 % between 2008 and 2010
Dampening affetcs on US electricity prices
Low European shale gas potentials; no
significant US LNG exports before 2020
No real potential for price reductions of gas
and electricity in Europe until 2020
US advantage (compared to Europe) in
terms of energy cost at least until 2020
Projection
US Gas5
Electricity Germany - Max1
Gas Germany3
US electricity4
1. Entwicklung basierend auf Trendstudie 2030+ Szenario "Zielerreichung Klimaschutz" Preispfad B, ohne Steuern und Abgaben 2. Entwicklung basierend auf Trendstudie 2030+ Szenario ""Fiktives fossiles System" Preispfad A ohne Steuern und Abgaben 3. Annahmen Gaspreisentwicklung basieren auf Trendstudie 2030+ Preispfad A, ohne Steuern und Abgaben 4. Preise Industriestrom, ohne Steuern und Abgaben (EIA) 5. Preise Industriegas, ohne Steuern und Abgaben (EIA) Quelle: Eurostat; EIA; BCG
Electricity Germany - Min2
16
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Overview: selected expected electricity flows in 2022 (target scenario)
More than one third of additional renewable generation in 2022 will
only contribute to the increase of German export surplus.
• Generation and load in
Germany will diverge
• Hours of high feeding-in of
renewables and low demand
create market incentives to
export electricity abroad
• In 2022 the electricity generated
from renewables can only be
integrated into the German
electricity market by about two
third
The Energiewende is a European challenge and therefore has to be approached
on the European level.
17
Source: EWI
Net replacement of conventionally
generated electricity
PRELIMINARY VERSION18
Current status of Energiewende: mixed picture
BDI-Energiewende-Navigator 2013 – results at a glance
Economic feasability
62 % 64 %
Acceptance
76 % 68 %
Innovation
73 % 80 %
Impact on climate
and environment
97 % 99 %
Good progress by fast development in RES
Anteil EE am Bruttoendenergie- und Stromverbrauch mit voller Zielerreichung
Verkehrssektor hinter den Erwartungen (Elektrofahrzeuge, Anteil EE am Kraftstoffverbrauch)
Tendenz: mögliche Übererfüllung EE-Ziele, CO2-Zielerreichung bleibt ambitioniert
Competitiveness critical due to high energy prices and efficiency lagging behind
Strompreise für Industrie und Haushalte im internationalen Vergleich auf sehr hohem Niveau
Energieproduktivitätsentwicklung unter den Zielen der Bundesregierung
Tendenz: Strompreise und Zielerreichung der Verbrauchsreduktion weiterhin kritisch
Sufficient generation capacities, but slow development in grid extensions
Stromerzeugungskapazitäten derzeit ausreichend – regionaler Handlungsbedarf teils dringend
Netzkapazitäten noch ausreichend, Ausbau Stromnetze allerdings mit Verzögerungen
Tendenz: weiterhin negative Entwicklung aufgrund von stockendem Netzausbau
General acceptance of Energiewende, but cost increase is seen as critical
Generell breite Unterstützung in der Bevölkerung; Preiserhöhungen jedoch kritisch gesehen
Industrie erwartet weitere Kostensteigerung; Sorgen um Versorgungssicherheit nehmen zu
Tendenz: Befürchtungen überwiegen, Akzeptanz zunehmend in Gefahr
R&D investments in energy sector remain on low level
Öffentliche energiebezogene Forschungsausgaben ziehen 2012 wieder an
Anteil der „Green Energy Patents“ zudem weiter steigend
Tendenz: weitere Verbesserung durch Forschungsprogramme der Bundesregierung
Security of supply
91 % 89 %
Grün Zielerreichung (10 % Toleranz) Gelb Von 89 % bis 75 % Zielerreichung Rot Weniger als 75 % Zielerreichung
PRELIMINARY VERSION
Contact data
In case of any questions please do not hesitate to contact us.
19
Dennis Rendschmidt
+49 (0)30 2028-1407
www.energiewende-richtig.de