the fy 2014 budget proposals and where do we go from here
TRANSCRIPT
The FY 2014 Budget Proposals and Where Do We Go from Here
Dr. Jason J. Fichtner Senior Research Fellow Mercatus Center April 30, 2013
What we’re going to discuss today: • Where we are: CBO baseline – past, present and future
• What’s driving our fiscal condi?on • Comparison of FY14 budgets • The real boFom line
Overview
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CBO’s Baseline Projection - 2012
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CBO’s Baseline Projection - 2013
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CBO’s 2013 Outlook: Budget Surplus and Deficit
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U.S. Government Debt
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The Real Source of the Problem
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Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security
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Defense and Non-Defense Spending Squeezed as Autopilot Programs Explode
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Medicare Costs Over Time
State and Federal Medicaid Spending
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Social Security Trust Funds Annual Cash Flows
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Social Security Trust Fund Exhaustion
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Interest Costs Crowd Out Other Government Spending
Source: Peter G. Peterson Foundation http://www.pgpf.org/Special-Topics/Spending-primer.aspx Constant 2009 Dollars based on OMB , GAO and OMB data Author’s Calculations for FY2011
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A Huge Deficit Would Remain, Even If Any One of These Steps Were Taken:
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Source: Office of Management and Budget, The New York Times Based on fiscal year 2010 appropriations and disclosure reports from members of Congress who received spending earmarks for special projects.
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2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$ Billion
s
Balancing the Budget with Spending Restraint
CBO Baseline Revenues
Revenues 19% GDP
Revenues 18% GDP
Revenues 17% GDP
Spending Freeze
1% Reduc?on
1% Spending
2% Spending
Author's Calcula?ons based on CBO February 2013 Budget and Economic Outlook. Revenues for 2010 -‐ 2012 are Actual; Revenues for 2013 on based on CBO GDP figures are Author's Calcula?ons
Any Ques?ons???
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