The Future

The Election of 2012

Clearly Stated Learning Objectives

• Assess the upcoming 2012 Presidential Elections.

EVENTS IN PAKISTAN The Recent News

The Bin-Laden effect

• Not as big as you might think (this isn’t 2004)

• Terrorism was a minor issue in 2008 and not a factor in 2010

• No Republican hopefuls are running on “foreign policy”

Foreign Policy Bumps are Fleeting

Like Father, Like Son

The Economy Will be the big event in 2012, this event will be too far

removed on Election Day

BETTING ON OBAMAThe odds in 2012

Incumbency

• The Last incumbents who lost were– 1992– 1980– 1976

• He is facing no primary challenger

Campaign Finance

• $1,000,000,000

• Citizens United Money as well

• This alone discourages most challengers

The Electoral College

Popular on the Left• Strong Support Among

Democrats

• Very popular among key constituencies

• Policies are popular, and he is personally popular

Popularity on the Happy Side of 50%

Signs of Economic Growth

• Unemployment peaked in October 2009 (10.1%)

• Increase in consumer confidence

GDP Growth

THE 2012 ELECTIONFour Scenarios

Going In to 2012

• Both Parties are optimistic

• Unknowns– The Economy

– The Republican Nominee

– Seats in the House and Senate

Scenario 1: The Status Quo

• Little Change in either the House or Senate

• A “personal victory” for Obama (e.g. 1984)

• Good odds of this happening

Scenario 2: An Emerging Democratic Majority

• Coincides with an Obama victory

• The Democrats take back the House, expand lead in the Senate

• A return to the Obama Coalition.

Scenario 3: A Republican Congress

• GOP keeps the House

• The GOP Surges in the Senate

• This leads to full-scale battle between the President and Congress

Scenario 4: A Republican Sweep

• The GOP maintains the House

• Gains 4 in the Senate

• Wins the Presidency

• Very Unlikely

2012 A Presidential Election

The Republicans

Who Might Run against Obama?• Candidates need to

decide if this is their window

• Who runs depends on what happens in the next 6 months

Sarah Palin

Old Foes from 2008

Unknown Governors

Crazies and Long shots

Turning back to the Clock to 1994

RUNNING THE NUMBERSThe Electoral College Still Favors the Democrats

A Republican Win: Step 1

A Republican Win Step 2

A Republican Win Step 3

A Republican Win Step 4

This will be very difficult to achieve!