The 2012 Campaign: Analysis and Recommendations

Ron Nehring

What Happened?

51% 49%

Obama Romney

Presidential Election Obama wins by 2% in popular vote, 11% in Electoral College

Every swing state won by Obama, except NC: NH, VA, PA, FL, OH, MI, MN, IA, CO, NV

Obama only lost two states from 08: IN and NC.

California: Presidential Election Obama won by 2.6M votes, or 21.8%

San Diego County Obama: 565,147 (51.89%) Romney: 501,234 (46.02%)

GOP Gain: Nebraska GOP Losses: Massachusetts Maine Indiana Net: -2GOP

United States Senate Democrats expanded majority by 2

California: United States Senate Feinstein re-elected, but by smallest margin in 18 years

San Diego County Feinstein: 565,198 (53.73%) Emken: 486,671 (46.27%)

United States House of Representatives Republican majority reduced by 5

Democrats Gained Four Republican Seats in CA Dan Lungren Mary Bono Mack Elton Gallegly (Open) Brian Bilbray

Governors Republicans gain one to reach 30

Republican Gain North Carolina

California: State Legislature Democrats today hold supermajorities in both chambers

Democrats Republicans

Assembly

55

25 Lowest since 1977

Senate 27 11 Lowest since 1963

2 vacancies

Last time Democrats 2/3rds majorities in both chambers: 1883. In the 1882 election, Republicans lost 27 Assembly seats, 15 Senate seats, Governor and every statewide office. Democrats gained 68 seats in the U.S. House. Republicans gained 1 in the Senate (chosen by legislatures).

Strategic Factors

National Mood Benefitted Obama/Democrats Perception of economic improvement rose substantially

Obama Bush 41 Carter Ford

Election Day Job Approval

52% 34% 37% 45%

Demographics: Gender Gap Obama lost men, but won by 12% among women

“War on Women” strategy was carefully chosen by Democrats to drive a wedge between the GOP and women.

Demographics: Latinos Romney’s % of Latinos lowest since Bob Dole

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

R% 35% 37% 30% 25% 21% 35% 40% 31% 27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Republican Share of the Latino Vote

Demographics: Latinos Special challenge in the Southwest

Demographics: Latinos Growth nationally

13.8% Latino

69.1% Latino

Demographics: Latinos Latino population growing in 57 California counties

1980 1990 2000 2010

United States 6.4% 9.0% 12.5% 16.7%

California 19.2% 25.8% 32.4% 38.1%

San Diego 14.8% 20.4% 26.7% 32.5%

Orange 14.8% 23.4% 30.8% 34.1%

Los Angeles 27.6% 37.8% 44.6% 48.1%

Fresno 29.3% 35.5% 40.0% 50.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Lati

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op

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Latino Population (%)

Demographics: Asians California’s Asian community has almost tripled as a % of total population

1980 1990 2000 2010

United States 1.5% 2.9% 4.5% 5.0%

California 5.3% 9.6% 12.8% 13.6%

San Diego 4.8% 7.9% 11.3% 11.4%

Orange 4.5% 10.3% 15.4% 18.4%

Los Angeles 5.8% 10.8% 13.5% 14.2%

Fresno 2.9% 8.6% 9.4% 10.3%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

Asi

an %

of

Po

pu

lati

on

Asian Population (%)

Low Turnout Overall, Especially in CA

Low Turnout and Proposition 32 An additional $64 million makes a difference

• First time “paycheck protection” has ever appeared on a California general election ballot.

• Additional millions labor spent on turnout.

California’s 64% turnout rate was lowest on record for a Presidential year. Average is 73%.

Critical Lessons for the Future

1. Sadly, The Reagan Era is Officially Over New voters, demographics and politics

Obama first President since Carter to not run at least in part on Reagan principles of government. Reagan Democrats became Republicans. Country increasingly diverse compared to 1980. More Latino, Asian.

2. Candidates matter More than political parties

Rep. Todd Akin “Legitimate rape”

Richard Mourdoch "even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that is something that God intended to happen."

Christine O’Donnell “I’m not a witch.”

Sharron Angle “I’m tired of people calling me wacky.”

3. Caring and Fairness Critical qualities in a candidate

• Center and center-left voters must see these qualities in a candidate.

• Democrats have a playbook to take these qualities away from GOP candidates.

4. The World is Run by Those Who Show Up Turnout programs key in lower turnout elections

• Voter contact programs are proven to directly impact voter behavior.

• The more personal and credible the communication, the higher the impact.

• Last minute money can buy television, but not turnout.

5. Rediscover Jack Kemp Conservative Republican Congressman was before his time in adapting GOP message for urban voters

Connecting ideas of entrepreneurship and free markets to help lift people from poverty. Enterprise zones to make urban areas more competitive. School choice, charter schools, and education reforms aimed at helping people in the inner city.

6. First, win in your own back yard Republican elected officials need to start by winning diverse groups in their own districts

GOP legislators, Members of Congress can make progress now by concentrating on winning not only their own district, but the majority of the Latino, Asian, etc. vote in their district.

6. First, win in your own back yard Republican elected officials need to win diverse groups in their own districts

Don’t just visit the border, go over it. Understand the issues and challenges facing the family and friends of those who have here who are still “back home.”

Prensa Libre, newspaper in Guatemala, receives more hits per day from Los Angeles than Guatemala City.

Understand the benefits U.S. policy can bring to Central and South America (expanded trade, support for drug interdiction efforts, etc.). Concentrate on ethnic media in your district. Latino, Asian, etc. local newspapers, cable television programs, news websites. Provide news in native languages. Consider then convey support for sensible pro-immigration policies. Options: Permanent guest worker program. Raising limits on legal immigration. Make it easier for people here on student visas to stay and put their skills to work here. Simplify immigration paperwork. Blue card program?

13.8% Latino

69.1% Latino

2014 Opportunities

Six Year Itch - Cycles Senate: 20 Dem seats up, vs. 13 Rep seats Democrat overreach in California