The Future?

SOC 370: Social ChangeDr. Kimberly Martin

Chaos Theory

A theory that attempts to explain how complex systems work.

Predictions about complex systems are extremely difficult to make because a tiny change in one part of the system can ripple throughout, causing a very different outcome

“The Butterfly Effect”

Cultural systems are EXTREMELY complex and therefore prediction is very difficult.

Warren Wagar’s Fictional Future

CharacteristicsMega corporations rather than nationsElectronic media and newsWorld wide depression with more than 50% unemployment internationallyMassive overpopulationMassive increases in ozone loss, soil erosion, global warming, rising sea levels, resource depletionMassive increases in poverty, urban unrest, violent crime and drug use

Warren Wagar’s Fictional Future

ResultsNuclear holocaust:

Most of North America/Europe destroyed

70% of the world’s population killed

Most population left in the Southern Hemisphere

Warren Wagar’s Fictional Future

Two strategies for economic and political reorganization of the World System:

1. A “World Party” single global governmentGoals: to end tribalism, capitalism, sexismEconomy socialist based on production for

use-value (rather than exchange-value)Guaranteed income if working½ Guaranteed income if not workingAll workers must know a variety of skillsClass system abolishedNational boundaries abolished

Warren Wagar’s Fictional Future

“World Party” System ProblemsAbsence of personal libertyMassive state bureaucracyState surveillanceDissent and New Political Parties

form

Warren Wagar’s Fictional Future

Two strategies for economic and political reorganization of the World System:

2. The “Small Party” StrategyAbolish the world stateEstablish many small local political communitiesFreedom to choose own government,

economy, religionIn Wagar’s fictitious world, 41,525

political communities formed and ruled themselves and “Small Party” global organization disbanded

The Club of Rome Report1972

Heilbroner, Meadows, Meadows & Randers

Thirteen scenarios that took into account: The amount of cultivable landAgricultural yield per unit of landThe amount of non-renewable resourcesThe capacity of the earth to absorb pollution

Definition of collapse: Decrease in life expectance,Decrease in consumer goods availableDecrease in amount of food availableIrreparable damage to the environment

The Club of Rome ReportScenario 1: Current trends continue unchanged

Leads to overshoot and collapseScenario 2: Twice the resources with current trends

Leads to overshoot and collapse over a longer time

Scenario 3: 2 plus pollution controlsLeads to overshoot and collapse

Scenario 4: 3 plus land yield enhancementLeads to overshoot and collapse

Scenario 5: 4 plus erosion protectionLeads to overshoot and collapse

Scenario 6: 5 plus resource efficient technologyLeads to overshoot and collapse

Scenario 7: 6 plus faster technology developmentLeads to overshoot and collapse

OVERSHOOT AND COLLAPSE

OVERSHOOT AND COLLAPSE

The Club of Rome ReportScenario 8: Current trends with population control

Leads to overshoot and collapse by 2050 or earlier (1970 study so that means 40 years)

Scenario 9: 8 plus decreased industrial output per capita Leads to overshoot and collapse at a slower rate

Scenario 10: 7 plus 9Sustainable world at high standard of living (SOL)

Scenario 11: 10 plus changes starting in 1975Sustainable world at higher SOL than 10

Scenario 12: 11 plus changes starting in 2015Leads to overshoot and collapse with a recovery to a

lower SOL that takes 50 yearsScenario 13: 12 plus greater demands for food and

consumer goodsLeads to higher standard of living until 2100 with decline

SUSTAINABILITY THROUGH ACTION

SUSTAINABILITY THROUGH ACTION

The Club of Rome Report

What needs to be restricted?1. Population growth2. Industrial output3. Pollution4. Land erosion5. Use of non-renewable resources

Club of Rome Report

What needs to be developed?1.Resource efficient technologies2.Increased land yield

We will fail without these restrictions and developments.

A main limitation of this study is that it is a simplified model (Chaos Theory)

Will we need authoritarian governments to accomplish these steps in time?

The Dynamics of WarGoldstein

War and Kondratieff Cycles from 1495 onMajor wars occur at the end of an upturn cycleWorld War II is an exception if you treat it as an different war from WWI, but not if you treat them as a single war.States can best afford to go to war when they are at or just beyond their peaks

Kondratieff Cycles and War

Chase-Dunn & O’ReillyBelieves there will be a Core War (50/50)

Because of-Phase of Kondratieff Cycles-Ecological degradation-Deteriorating U.S. position in

World SystemIn spite of-Efforts at nuclear disarmament-International organizations

explicitly intended to avoid war

Chase-Dunn & O’ReillyOR

A war started by peripheral or semi-peripheral countries who have or get

nuclear weapons-Maldistribution of economic resources-Resentment toward high standard of

living countries-Increasing global polarization-Nothing to lose

What Kind of Changes?Chase-Dunn suggests:+

A single global state ( a world confederation of states)Authority to inspect and disarm by forceNo need for cultural uniformityCombine capitalism and socialismConsiderable individual state autonomy

“a multilevel, self-reliant, culturally pluralistic, minimally centralized” government whose main focus and responsibilities are to keep peace (prevent struggles between interest groups from threatening the human species) and balance development with ecological sustainability

When might there be a single global state?Robert Carneiro 2300Raoll Naroll 2175Rein Taagepera 3800

ALL OF THESE ARE TOO LATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

What Kind of Changes?Wallerstein says:

Capitalism is stronger than Marx thought but is fatally flawed100-150 years to a world socialist systemThe transition from capitalism to socialism is

inevitableA socialist global state:

Advanced technology provides adequately for all needs

Production resulting from collective decisions to meet needs

Low labor requirementsIndividuals will work less and pursue

personal fulfillmentSocial motivation for collective

aggression goneCollective decisions in common interest

lead to environmental sustainability

What Kind of Changes?Goldfrank Four Possibilities:

Barbarism I (Nuclear Holocaust) (2015-2050) 15% chance Collapse

Barbarism II (Global Fascism) (2015-2050) 15% chance Giant centralized authoritarian bureaucracy Monopoly of means of production, property,

violence Police repression

Extermination/eugenicsSocialism I (Swedish Welfare) 2088-2148 50% chanceSocialism II (Democratic Socialist) 2088-2148 70% chance

Democratic planning for food and some industrial Some capitalist production for consumer goods Worker control of enterprises Popular control of communities Rational assessment of human needs rather than

profit motive

What Kind of Changes?Sanderson:

Capitalism Strengths Scientific and technical

development Increases economic productivity

and wealth Parliamentary democracy Room for realizing human potential

Weaknesses Economic inequality (national and

global) Boring and alienating work Commercialization of human values Consumer mentality extremes

Modern culture at lowest common denominator

Environmental degradation

What Kind of Changes?Socialism

Strengths Humane concern for welfare of

individuals More egalitarian and economically

democratic Weaknesses

Centralized economic planning can be ineffective

Concentrated political power in a large bureaucracy

The Swedish Model of Social DemocracyProtections for minimum income for allProtections for minimum health care for allProtections for education for allEconomic planning plus some market production

What Kind of Changes?What do we need in a system for the

future? A system that

Promotes economic production in line with environmental protectionEliminates dull work through mechanizationPromotes arts, sciences, intellectual pursuits as equal to production of wealthHas universal and free lifetime educationAllowing time and resources for individuals to

develop their potentialIs as democratic as possibleAvoids excessive centralized planning AND excessive profit motive/market productionAvoids serious inequalities, but not necessarily completely egalitarian

What Kinds of Changes?• Sorokin and Culture Change

– (the way people think about the world!)– Three types of cultures

• Ideational – spiritual, ascetic, non-materialIs found in periods of economic stagnation and decline

•Sensate – materialistic, focused on body and bodily needsIs found in periods of economic growth and vitality = CAPITALISM

• Idealistic – a combination of ideational and sensate Will this be the culture of the future?