The Future of Weather-Related The Future of Weather-Related DisastersDisasters

The Future of Weather-Related The Future of Weather-Related DisastersDisasters

Dr. Jeff MastersDr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.The Weather Underground, Inc.http://www.wunderground.comhttp://www.wunderground.com

Dr. Jeff MastersDr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.The Weather Underground, Inc.http://www.wunderground.comhttp://www.wunderground.com

Arctic Sea Ice Loss: A Potential Culprit in Recent Weather Extremes

$15 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980 (NCDC)$15 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980 (NCDC)

Costliest U.S. Weather Disaster in History: Costliest U.S. Weather Disaster in History: Drought and Locust Plague of 1874 – 1877,Drought and Locust Plague of 1874 – 1877,$169 billion (2012 dollars)$169 billion (2012 dollars)

$15+ Billion non-U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980$15+ Billion non-U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980

Source: http://www.emdat.beSource: http://www.emdat.be

The Future of TornadoesThe Future of Tornadoesand Severe Thunderstormsand Severe Thunderstorms

12) Tampa Bay Hurricane12) Tampa Bay HurricaneProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

Bayshore Drive, Tampa FL, after the 1921 HurricaneBayshore Drive, Tampa FL, after the 1921 Hurricane

11) Japanese Super Typhoon11) Japanese Super TyphoonProbability: 10%Probability: 10%

Flooding from Category 5 Super Typhoon Vera, September 26, 1959Flooding from Category 5 Super Typhoon Vera, September 26, 1959Strongest typhoon on record in Japan: 160 mph winds, 5,098 killedStrongest typhoon on record in Japan: 160 mph winds, 5,098 killed

Potential tracks of a $100-billion Japanese super typhoon

China floods and landslides, 2010: China floods and landslides, 2010: 4245 killed, $51 billion damage4245 killed, $51 billion damage

10) China Flood10) China FloodProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

9) Galveston/Houston Hurricane9) Galveston/Houston HurricaneProbability: 30%Probability: 30%

1900 Galveston Hurricane damage1900 Galveston Hurricane damage

8) Miami Hurricane8) Miami HurricaneProbability: 40%Probability: 40%

Miami Beach, 1926 HurricaneMiami Beach, 1926 Hurricane

7) New Orleans Hurricane7) New Orleans HurricaneProbability: 30%Probability: 30%

New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, 2005

Northern China dust storm, April 6, 2001Northern China dust storm, April 6, 2001

6) China Drought6) China DroughtProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

Tropical Storm Irene over New York City, August 28, 2011Tropical Storm Irene over New York City, August 28, 2011

5) New York City Hurricane5) New York City HurricaneProbability: 10%Probability: 10%

New York's LaGuardia Airport after the New York's LaGuardia Airport after the November 25, 1950 Nor'easterNovember 25, 1950 Nor'easter

PATH Train Station in Hoboken, NJ during PATH Train Station in Hoboken, NJ during the December 12, 1992 Nor’easter the December 12, 1992 Nor’easter

June 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River DeltaJune 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

4) California ARkSTORM Flood4) California ARkSTORM FloodProbability: 20%Probability: 20%4) California ARkSTORM Flood4) California ARkSTORM FloodProbability: 20%Probability: 20%

3) U.S. Drought3) U.S. DroughtProbability: 50%Probability: 50%

Texas drought, 2011: $12 billion in damageTexas drought, 2011: $12 billion in damage

A $100 billion, 1-in-100-year U.S. droughtwould seriously strain world food prices

1988 Drought: 7,500 killed, $71 billion in damage

Dust Bowl Drought: 5,000 killed, 2.5 million people displaced

The future of drought, 30 years from now?

Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal waterOld River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water

2) Mississippi River Changes Course2) Mississippi River Changes CourseProbability: 10%Probability: 10%

Interruption of Mississippi barge traffic to the nation's 1st, 6th, 11th, Interruption of Mississippi barge traffic to the nation's 1st, 6th, 11th, and 14th busiest ports: $300 million per day.and 14th busiest ports: $300 million per day.

Loss of 60% of U.S. grain exports. Loss of 60% of U.S. grain exports.

Interruption of 57 million tons per year of crude oil, chemicals, steel, Interruption of 57 million tons per year of crude oil, chemicals, steel, concrete, fertilizers, rubber, plywood, etc. moving upriver. concrete, fertilizers, rubber, plywood, etc. moving upriver.

Inundation of 11% of Louisiana. Likely destruction of Morgan City Inundation of 11% of Louisiana. Likely destruction of Morgan City (population 12,000) (population 12,000)

No fresh water for: No fresh water for: - One million people, including all of New Orleans - One million people, including all of New Orleans - Oil refineries that supply 14% of U.S. oil - Oil refineries that supply 14% of U.S. oil - Natural gas refineries that produce over 20% of U.S. natural gas - Natural gas refineries that produce over 20% of U.S. natural gas - Petrochemical plants supplying over 20% of U.S. petrochemicals- Petrochemical plants supplying over 20% of U.S. petrochemicals

Costs of Mississippi River changing courseCosts of Mississippi River changing course

1) Volcanic or Nuclear Winter1) Volcanic or Nuclear WinterProbability: 10%Probability: 10%

Mt. Pinatubo eruption, June 15, 1991, PhilippinesMt. Pinatubo eruption, June 15, 1991, Philippines

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