the future of the internet - the next 30 years

Future of the Internet

Rahul Singh

History of the Future, Spring 2013Professor Mark Gray5/9/2013

Future of the Internet i

Table of Contents

Future of the Internet.............................................................................................................................................. 1

How an ubiquitous Internet of things will lead to more secure Digital World.........................1

Observation............................................................................................................................................................................................1

Hypothesis.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 1

Current Evidence of Internet Growth and In-Security.........................................................................2

Internet Ubiquity.................................................................................................................................................................................2

Internet.Things.....................................................................................................................................................................................3

Internet.Crime...................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Analysis..................................................................................................................................................................... 5

Conclusion................................................................................................................................................................ 7

Future of the Internet ii

Rahul Singh

History of the Future, Spring 2013Professor Mark Gray

5/9/2013

Future of the Internet

Observation It wasn't that long ago that owning a computer was something of note. Not everyone had a computer at home. 1 The Internet, let alone an iPhone were thoughts of science fiction. The world of computing has come so far that the "Internet" has become pervasive in everyday life. This new utility is now as important as water, electricity, and cable. It may soon replace cable.

As new media replaces old media of all kinds, three main features should emerge: The internet will be available everywhere and in all parts of the world via a grid of overlaying systems to all people on earth; All electronic devices will be connected to self-organizing networks that are owned by individuals, corporations, and governments; Cyber crime will over take every other form of white collar crime to date.

The research in this document reflects a high-level qualitative gathering and analysis of publications, data-sources, and industry blogs that show observed trends that can be reasonably projected to continue over the next 10-20 years.

HypothesisIf more and more electronic devices get on to the Internet, the Internet infrastructure will need to grow to support the devices. If the Internet continues to grow, it will likely support more and more non-user Internet devices: the Internet of things. As the number of users and the Internet of things continue to grow, more and more cybercrime will be prevalent. An invisible energy and information mesh that connects and controls all electronic devices and will be the fabric for commerce and education will pervade the future of the world. Because it will be so important, cyber crime will become commonplace. As cyber crime

1 (Plumer, 2013)

Future of the Internet 1

More Devices Bigger Network

More Crime

More Security

becomes commonplace, so will cyber police and cyber military.

Current Evidence of Internet Growth and In-Security

Internet Ubiquity

Although the number of Internet hosts has been plateauing, the number of users has been steadily increasing in the last 20 years. From 1997 to 2012, the Internet has shown steady linear growth in developed countries, and slow but exponential growth in the world globally and in the developing world. In 2006, 82% of the world was not using the Internet. In 2011 it was 65%.2 Certain regions have seen astronomical growth between 2000 and 2012: Users in Africa grew by 3,606.7%; Users in the Middle East grew by 2,639.9%; and Users in Latin America and the Caribbean grew by 1,310.8%.3 The developing countries are using the Internet to leapfrog developed countries in some ways. Instead of using traditional physical networks, they use satellite and cell-networks to get access to the Internet through mobile devices. The World Bank said that mobile phones have now reached three-fourths of the world’s population.4

As more and more users become citizens of the Internet, many have strong feelings for the purpose and use of the Internet. The Global User Internet Survey shows that they see the Internet as a tool for solving global problems, improving global processes, improving global initiatives, and as a tool for human rights. These users also expressed an increase in Internet protection and worries about privacy.5

Growth of the Internet affects the physical world. As users increase, so does the need for Internet bandwidth and the number of subscribers that pay for broadband Internet. Research shows that although Internet bandwidth has been steadily increasing, the growth rate is decreasing.6 Although the Internet hubs are primarily between Europe and North

2 (WikiPedia, 2013)3 (Miniwatts Marketing Group, 2012)4 (World Bank, 2013)5 (Internet Society, 2013)6 (PriMetrica, Inc., 2013)


America, Asia, Africa, South America are starting to develop. In Africa, tech-entrepreneurs are gathering in “Accelerators” similar to the United States.7 These companies are leveraging the growth of the Internet to create content that originates from their countries targeted to their countries.

Internet.Things

The measure of the internet in our daily lives is evidenced by the number of devices that are addressable by a unique IP ("Internet Protocol") address and the number of users using it. The current Internet uses IPV4 addressing and the emerging version utilizes IPV6. There were only 4 billion or so addresses or so addresses available until the recent adoption of IPV6. Although the 4 billion IPs are still being used as the primary addressing system, institutions around the world are using them up.8 The Guardian noted from Cisco’s research that the number of Internet devices would outnumber the number of humans this year.9

More and more “mobile” devices account for Internet usage. PC’s and Laptops make the bulk of the internet devices used by users, but users are increasingly opting to use mobile phones, tablets, and internet TVs as these devices become better at accessing the internet.10

By 2017, non-smartphones will be a minority.11

Mobile phones, tablets, and Internet TVs aren’t the only things that utilize the Internet. Even though many users accessorize their Internet systems with other devices, and while these devices aren’t technically “on the internet” because they aren’t addressable by an IP address, they are still connected via

wireless protocols of Bluetooth or the many variations of WIFI. These devices can include home security cameras, wireless printers, cameras, keyboards, and mice.

7 (Gammon, 2012)8 (Botnet, Carna, 2012)9 (Arthur, Charles, 2013)10 (Wastershed Publishing, 2012)11 (Cisco, 2013)


“The any-to-any world and the Internet of Everything is an evolution in connectivity and collaboration that is unfolding rapidly. It’s the nexus of devices, clouds, and applications.”12

Many Internet and technology industry sites are already heralding devices, platforms, and ideas for the coming “Internet of Things.” The ideas range from using technology to create self-regulating farms that know how much water to request from a watering system, to home appliances that talk to each other.13 Another indicator of the eminent “Internet of Things” are groups of companies getting together to create standards such as LogiTech, KontrolTV, COIN, BASIS, and KEASE.14

Internet.Crime

The Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3), in partnership with the FBI and the National White Collar Crime Center reported in 2012 that they received 314,246 complaints in 2011. In 2000, they received 16,838. Although the complaints were down from 2009, the growing trend of Internet crime is evident in the following graphic obtained from their report.15

The types of crimes that the IC3 responds to vary in degree and severity, but it’s clear from their report that people have lost money. In 2011, approximately $485M dollars was lost to

12 (Cisco, 2013)13 (GigaOm, 2013)14 (Internet of Things Consortium, 2013)15 (IC3, 2012)


computer crime as reported to the IC3. These criminals target people through fraudulent claims, identity theft, and even FBI impersonation. International crime is also on the rise. Organizations such as FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigations, 2013), Department of Homeland Security, and Interpol all have designated staff to deal with cybercrime.16 State governments such as Massachusetts have also taken this issue seriously and have started to educate their citizens.17

With more and more mobile devices, threats such as viruses and malware that used to plague PC users are now spreading over to smart phones. Cisco reported that Android malware grew 2577 percent in 2012. International cyber crime also includes spam that originates from other countries. Spam is the major delivery vehicle for malicious content that can damage hardware and software, as well as fraudulent claims. Many spam messages include “spoofed” brands that consumers are likely to respond to save money. 18

Analysis

Experts have thought up several scenarios of the future of the Internet, but none of them deny the coming ubiquity. Whether it is a porous garden, built with moats and bridges, a network of boutique networks, or a common pool that caters to all, all of them have one idea front and center: the Internet will be everywhere. 19

Erich Schmidt, the Chairman of Google, Inc. projects similar thoughts about the Internet’s ubiquity. He claims in his new book with Jared Cohen “In the next decade, 5 billion new

people will join the Internet.”20 Much of this growth will come from mobile devices because

16 (Interpol, 2013)17 (Commonwealth of Massachussetts, 2013)18 (Cisco, 2013)19 (Internet Society, 2009)20 (Schmidt & Cohen, 2013)


they are affordable and portable in developing countries where physical infrastructure is lacking.21

The internet statistics collected by Netcraft, ICANN, CAIDA, and various other organizations and associations all point to the same thing: the Internet continues to grow in the number of users and more and more of the users are using smaller and smaller devices such as mobile phones and tablets.

Most businesses have already shifted their strategy to design applications and software for mobile and table designs. Internet communities have created “Responsive” design patterns to create user interfaces for the variety of devices that have cropped up in the last 10 or so years. Pete Cashmore of Mashable says that 2013 is the year of responsive design because we’re in the post-pc era and that tablet sales are going to hit 100M this year.22

Although most of the businesses aren’t yet playing with the “Internet of Things,” the best consulting companies such as McKinsey are already publishing strategy papers on how to understand and utilize for business agility. 23 They suggest that adopting the Internet of Things into business models will eventually become a part of every day life. Sensors and devices that are connected will be a part of a large ecosystem that includes the company’s inventory as well as the production machinery.

The government is also trying to catch up to the growth of Internet crimes ranging from Internet piracy, fraudulent transactions, and Internet privacy. Recently bills such as SOPA have been shot down for being too controlling. CFSA is a draft bill that’s being developed to fight the streaming of copyrighted information. Although no major acts have been passed, the conversation is in the public sphere. When bills that may or may not restrict the Internet are discussed in Congress or Senate, the Internet itself becomes a hotbed of debate on the issue.24

The problem with current regulation attempts stems from the fact that most politicians don’t understand what the Internet is about. Some think that the Internet is a series of tubes, while others think that they invented it. Lobbying companies that want to exert control or politicians that want to levy taxes to increase government revenue usually fill the gap in knowledge.

21 (WikiPedia, 2013)22 (Cashmore, 2012)23 (Chui, Löffler, & Roberts, 2010)24 (Albanesius, 2013)


Although the government helped create the Internet, it still hasn’t quite understood how to use it to be more efficient. They have understood that it’s important, just not how important. When Estonia fell to a full-scale cyber attack in 2007, the global community of nations woke up and started to take cyber-security more seriously.25

Conclusion

The Internet is for People, first and foremost. It is an ecosystem that centers on People. Cisco defines “People, Processes, Data, and Things” as the different elements that work together on the Internet. All of are growing in numbers. Population growth (People) has been a part of the modern world and as it goes from 7B to 8B, there will be more institutions doing more work (Processes). As more Processes are executed, more Data will be generated and simultaneously on more and more devices (Things).

Criminals are finding better ways to dupe users, steal information, and cause havoc in people’s lives. Internet crime has become a part of the world’s problems. Government is trying to catch up with new laws, new ways to police and fight Internet crime both domestically and internationally.

The states that want to manage a free and just Internet will have to find good reason to enact laws that limit users. In countries with abridged, the Internet’s role in changing the governmental structure can only be speculated. For liberal democracies, the Internet will get worse with Internet crime before it gets better.

In the next 10 years, there will be a global “black-swan” event that will potentially impact the whole Internet infrastructure or a segment. The Internet works cross several regions of the world, through several software layers, and across several types of physical layers. These layers and regions won’t protect us from the worst case scenario.

As the number of Internet devices and users grow, so will the number of people who don’t know how to protect their information and secure their devices. Malicious hackers can exploit these vulnerabilities. The Internet Census 2012 by Carna Botnet shows how someone with enough skills can understand the traffic and nature of Internet usage without people or government’s permission. This “secret hacker internet census” is a scary but true incident. A hacker exploited the Internet’s vulnerability over the course of a year

25 (WikiPedia, 2013)


to write a research paper.26 This hacker found that many of the devices aren’t protected while others are protected with extremely weak passwords. He compromised 420,000 devices to monitor more than 460,000,000 devices and was able to get into networks even behind the firewall of China.

It’s only a matter of time, that someone a group of people with the proper skills and resources that they have acquired through illegal means will attempt to carry out large-scale attacks to de-stabilize people’s lives, nations, and businesses. The world is getting wise of the potential threat. Interpol has recently invested in an international “Global Complex for Innovation” in Singapore with the help of Kaspersky Labs, a leader in anti-virus research.27

As the Internet came out of the world of military research under the umbrella of DARPA, so will Internet Security. There may be a divergence in strategies and tactics used by “police” or “domestic security” forces such as FBI and Interpol will be different than those used by “military” and “national security” forces. Policy makers will then need to catch up to create laws that can control them for public good instead of public control. Because the government is usually reactionary rather than proactive, policy changes for a free and just

26 (Stöcker & Horchert, 2013)27 (Kaspersky Labs, 2013)


Internet will take years after several relatively small incidents like Estonia and maybe a few years after a black-swan event.


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