the future of skills and jobs - pealeht - oska...the future of skills and jobs work and skills 2025...
TRANSCRIPT
THE FUTURE OF SKILLS
AND JOBS
Work and Skills 2025 ConferenceTallinn, 20 April 2016
Mark KeeseHead of the Employment Analysis and Policy Division
Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
Megatrends shaping the future of work
Technology Digitalisation
Globalisation Environmental change
Ageing societies
Changing:
What jobs will be
created
How, where and
by whom they are
carried out
Expect substitution for certain kinds of jobs:
polarisation in skill demands
Index of changing work tasks in the USAIndex value: 1960 = 50
Source: Levy and Murnane (2013), Dancing with Robots:
Human Skills for Computerized Work, Third Way
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
Routine cognitive
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interpersonal
Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution
-40
-20
0
20
40
Abstract (high-skill)
Routine (middle-skill)
Non-routine manual (low-skill)
Demand for skillsGrowth (%) 1995/98-2010
Source: OECD (2015). In It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits
All, OECD Publishing.
Employment to population ratioPercentage of the working-age population (aged 15/16-64)
Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics Database
Technical change has changed the occupational structure of our economies and the
types of skills needed but not the aggregate demand for labour.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
AU
T
DE
U
ES
P
SV
K
EN
G /
NIR
NO
R
CZ
E
NLD IT
A
CA
N
Ave
rage
US
A
FR
A
DN
K
IRL
SW
E
PO
L
JPN
BE
L (F
l)
FIN
ES
T
Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC); Arntz et al (2016)
Workers at high risk of substitutionPercentage of workers with >70% of substitutable tasks
Mass technological unemployment or mass
change in job task requirements?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1991 2007 2014
Greater income,
efficiency and
flexibility?
The platform economy is coming near you
Or less social
protection and
greater precarity?
The future of work requires a change to
how we think about skills
ICT skills, problem-solving
skills, socio-emotional
skills
New skill sets for new occupations and tasks
Decision-making skills
New forms of employment
Lifelong learning
Skills recognition
Training policies for multiple careers
Do workers have the skills for the new jobs?
(57)
(57)
(62)
(56)
(64)
(58)
(54)
(54)
(56)
(56)
(48)
(59)
(56)
(55)
(46)
(55)
(50)
(52)
(49)
(50)
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100
POL
IRL
SVK
EST
KOR
USA
AUT
CZE
Average
BEL (Fl)
JPN
ENG / NIR
DEU
CAN
AUS
DNK
NOR
NLD
FIN
SWE
Level 1 or below Level 2 Level 3
No ICT
skills or
basic
skills to
fullfill
simple
More
advanced
ICT and
cognitive
skills to
evaluate
problems
and
solutions
Source: OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from
the Survey of Adult Skills , OECD Publishing.
Problem-solving skills in Technology-Rich EnvironmentsPercentage of the working-age population (aged 15/16-64)
Few high-skilled
workers
Many workers
lacking ICT skills
Extensive skill mismatch across countries
0
5
10
15
20
Skills mismatch in literacyPercentage of over- and under-skilled workers
Over-skilled Under-skilled
Notes: Over-skilled workers are those whose proficiency score is higher than that corresponding to the 95th percentile of self-reported well-matched workers – i.e.
workers who neither feel they have the skills to perform a more demanding job nor feel the need of further training in order to be able to perform their current jobs
satisfactorily – in their country and occupation. Under-skilled workers are those whose proficiency score is lower than that corresponding to the 5th percentile of self-
reported well-matched workers in their country and occupation.
Source: Survey of Adults Skills (PIAAC) (2012), Table A4.25.
…and across sectors and fields of study…
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Health and welfare
Social sciences, business and law
Teacher training and education science
Engineering, manufacturing and construction
Service
Science, mathematics and computing
Humanities, languages and arts
Agriculture and veterinary
Field of study mismatch by field of study – EstoniaPercentage of workers from a field working in another
Source: Montt (2015) based on the Survey of Adults Skills (PIAAC) (2012)
…leading to a substantial wage penalty for
those who are mismatched…
Notes: Linear regression with log(wages) as the dependent variable. Control variables in all country regressions: age, experience, tenure, type of contract, firms size etc.
Source: Montt (2015) based on the Survey of Adults Skills (PIAAC) (2012)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Wage penalty for over-qualified and field of study mismatched workers
Percent of working population participating in job-related education and training during the last year
Job-related training – most in need get the least
0
20
40
60
80
100
United States England/N.Ireland (UK)
Canada Australia Japan Germany Spain Italy Korea
Below level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4/5
Source: OECD (2013), OECD Skills Outlook 2013: First Results from the Survey of Adult Skills , OECD Publishing.
Need for better anticipation of changing
skill needs and greater responsiveness
Skills
foresight
Outcomes
Labour market information
Training decisions Courses offered
Greater responsiveness
Involving all key stakeholders
Education &
training system,
other ministries,
social partners
In Estonia, plans to
complement quantitative
analysis with qualitative
information. Need for
greater sectoral detail
In Estonia, good cross-
ministerial collaboration
but weak co-ordination at
sub-national level
Formal cooperation across
ministries & other
stakeholders (legal basis:
ITA, USA; advisory groups:
DNK; dedicated institution:
ASL, IRE, UKM)
Ad hoc working groups (e.g.
NLD, USA)
Need for greater alignment in identification of
skill needs across stakeholders
• 74% of education providers across 8 major EU Economies believe youth to be prepared for their job
• Yet, only 35% of employers share the same opinion on new hires
Integrated skill needs information for better
employment, education and migration policy
Education policy
Migration policy
Social partners
Employment policy
Update occupational
standards
Revise, design, allocate
training programs
Develop apprenticeship
programs
Fast track entry of
migrants with skills
needed by employers
Attract talent from
abroad to fill skill gaps Advise members on
skills to promote
Influence labour and
education policy
Update NQF & curricula
Information for students
on employment prospects
Decide course provision
and funding
Contact: [email protected]
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Website: www.oecd.org/els/social
Newsletter: www.oecd.org/els/newsletter
Thank you
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