the future of shipping
TRANSCRIPT
DNV GL © 2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 20141
The Future of Shipping
Pori, Finland - June 10, 2015
DNV GL © 2014
The Future of Shipping
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DNV GL © 20143
Notes:
Sulphur/emission to air
NOX/emission to air
BW
Other
“New”
Some of the background for “everything”: Regulatory Pressure –> timeline towards 2020
DNV GL © 20144
Notes:
Sulphur/emission to air
NOX/emission to air
BW
Other
“New” (since 2013)
Some of the background for “everything”: Regulatory Pressure –> timeline towards 2020
DNV GL © 2014
Towards 2020….
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Alternative fuels
Beyond HFO
First-movers in
hybrid, battery,
methanol…
Energy efficient
technologies
Energy efficient
design
Improved design
process
Operational
improvement
Energy efficient
operations
Big data, sensors,
connectivity
Big data opportunities
More than buzz words
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The future fuel mix will be more diverse
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Traditional fuel
HFO
MDO
MGO
Realistic alternatives
LNG
ULHFO/Hybrid fuels
Methanol
LPG
Fully electric
Hybrid (battery + fuel)
Future options
Hydrogen
Gas to liquids (GTL)
Compressed natural gas
(CNG)
Wind
Solar
Ethanol
Vegetable oil
Biogas
Nuclear
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LNG as fuel – nothing new, or…. ?
“LNG-ready” a feasible option
also for larger vessels
Infrastructure under rapid
development (“chicken &
egg)
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600-700 LNG-as-fuel vessels
by 2020 seems like a realistic
figure
From…:
To…:
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Hybrid ships – a great future
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About 35 in operation or on
order (ferry, tug, PSV)
Pilot projects for hybrid systems indicate 15% fuel savings, compared to conventional systems
Most applicable for vessels with variable operational profile and low load operation
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Battery – Zero emission technology for “special markets”
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Today: 2-3 battery-
only vessels in
operation
2030: “Many”
Battery technology
is becoming cheaper
and more robust
Promising
technology to meet
stricter env.
requirements in
special areas
Enormous interest in
DNV GL’s “Maritime
Battery Forum”
created 2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhYaNHx5D00
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Methanol – “More to come”, says Stena Line
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The world’s first methanol
vessel - No sulphur or
particles
Supply issue remains, however
Conversion costs of existing vessels less than LNG-as-fuel conversion
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ReVolt: A Vision for the Future
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Battery powered
Highly Efficient
Autonomous
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhYaNHx5D00
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HYBRID FUELS – ECA compliance ok. But…
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Ultra low sulphur fuels complying with
the 0.1% sulphur limits
This new fuel is rumoured to be 10-20%
cheaper than MGO and available
Fuel is available in several locations
globally
Operational experience indicate
significant challenges with hybrid fuels –
high focus from industry
Can become a significant contributor to
SECA solution depending on price and
availability
Price/availability
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Innovation in energy efficient design
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Energy harvesting Innovate hull shapes – and
bio inspired solutions
Design for actual
conditions
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Improved design process – the virtual ship laboratory
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Concurrent system
engineering
Design for actual
and extreme
conditions
Virtual identity Team collaboration
across geographies
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Concurrent system
engineering
Design for actual
and extreme
conditions
Virtual model
identity
Team collaboration
across geographies
Improved design process – the virtual ship laboratory
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Energy efficient operations
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Increased cargo capacity,
adapted to demand
Horizontal and vertical
integration - pooling and
alliances, consolidation of
logistics chains
Performance management –
manage by numbers,
benchmark, cultural
change
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Vertical integration – thinking differently about logistics
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Door-to-door
cost
Carbon
footprint
Consolidating cargo
Frequency and efficiency
Getting the right ship
-70% -25%
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Digital technologies – a catalyst for smarter shipping
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System optimization – untapped opportunities
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Maximum 30-40%
of energy available
in the fuel is used
Modelling of
advanced data flows
is becoming more
accessible
Used for design,
retrofitting and
operation
optimisation of
ships
Sensors for monitoring are becoming more common – an enabler for systems optimisation
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Smart maintenance
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Risk-based maintenance: a more precise estimate of when a component should be replaced
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Measure & monitor - Performance management will become a key driver for competitiveness
Focus on:
Data quality
SMART KPIs
Extensive filtering
Automated sensor-based
monitoring
Improvement opportunities:
Capability to optimize
Improved decision support
Complete overview
Increased confidence
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SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
www.dnvgl.com
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