the future of heavy haul rail - a new approach to the construction and maintenance of africa’s...
DESCRIPTION
Dr Dave van der Meulen, Managing Member, from Railway Corporate Strategy has presented at the Heavy Haul Rail Africa. If you would like more information about the conference, please visit the website: www.railconferences.com/heavyhaulrail/africaTRANSCRIPT
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THE FUTURE OF HEAVY HAUL RAIL: A NEW APPROACH
TO CONSTRUCTION AND MAINTENANCE OF AFRICA’S HEAVY HAUL NETWORKS
Dr. Dave van der Meulen
Scope of Presentation
Orientation: Africa’s heavy haul networks
A frame of reference
African railway agendas
Conclusions
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INTRODUCTION
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1
AFRICA’S HEAVY HAUL NETWORKS
AFRICA’S HEAVY HAUL NETWORKS
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Heavy haul railways are generally not networks except in mining areas to access dispersed ore bodies
Africa’s are generally no different
South Africa’s Coal Export Line does carry some 30% non-coal traffic
Heavy haul railways can be standalone systems without connection to other railway routes or networks
The Heavy Haul Domain
Map of Railways in Sub-Saharan Africa
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Heavy Haul
AFRICA’S HEAVY HAUL NETWORKS
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2
A FRAME OF REFERENCE
Some Tables and Graphs Follow: Please note …
African railways that carry less than 2 million tons per year have been excluded
IHHA criteria: Heavy haul railways meet two of following … Regularly operate trains of at least 5000 tonnes gross mass
Haul at least 20 million gross tonnes per year over a line haul segment at least 150 km in length
Regularly operate equipment with axle loading 25 tonnes or more
The best available comparative data have been used
Order of magnitude differences are important, not minutiae
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A FRAME OF REFERENCE
Some International Benchmarks—Heavy Haul and BRIC
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A FRAME OF REFERENCE
In addition, China, India, and Russia carry substantial passenger traffic
Performance of African Railways > 2 million tonnes/year
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A FRAME OF REFERENCE
A Reminder—the Harris Curve from 1977
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A FRAME OF REFERENCE
Traffic Density by Country Compared on a Log10 Scale
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Africa
Reference Group
A FRAME OF REFERENCE
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Recognise the Presence of Confounding Factors
Some routes are single line, some routes are double line Different track gauges are present Some countries have more that one track gauge Nevertheless…
Traffic Density differences among countries span an order of magnitude or more
Are such large differences sustainable under long run global competition?
A FRAME OF REFERENCE
Some Endemic Issues
War damage, natural disasters, general neglect, lack of funds
Networks struggle to generate sufficient funds to maintain and renew infrastructure
Most railways operate to the alignment and/or standards to which they were originally constructed
Only lightweight and slow moving trains are accommodated
Lines that have been superseded by road developments, that have low traffic levels, rarely merit reconstruction
Historically little trade between most African countries, so case for more general links is unlikely to be strong
www.railcorpstrat.com 2009, Bullock, Off-track: Sub-Saharan African Railways, World Bank
A FRAME OF REFERENCE
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3
AFRICAN RAILWAY AGENDAS
The Scale of the Challenge—Africa is a huge continent!
Non-interoperability of colonial legacy railways is the major complication
Response to rail development in Africa is political and must come from highly placed Africans responsible for defining the new vision*
Is it possible to develop a coherent networking strategy?
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AFRICAN RAILWAY AGENDAS
*African Union document AU/EXP/RT/3(1) of 10-14 April 2006, p. 24
Linkages Among Stakeholders and Issues
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AFRICAN RAILWAY AGENDAS
Stakeholder- and Issue Inventory
Regional institutions CEMAC, COMESA, EAC, ECCAS, ECOWAS, IGAD, NBI, SADC
Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program
Union of African Railways North, West, Central, East and Southern Sub-regions
Affiliations MRTC, SARA, UAR
Track gauges 950mm, 1000mm, 1055mm, 1067mm, 1435mm
All countries have overlapping memberships of institutional groupings
www.railcorpstrat.com Abbreviations are listed on the last two slides
AFRICAN RAILWAY AGENDAS
Communication Linkages and Time to Exhaust the Agenda
Excluding Union of Arab Railways (already standard gauge) and Madagascar (a non-interoperable island) …
Number of communication linkages = 4_CEMAC x 12_COMESA x 3_EAC x 6_ECCAS x 12_ECOWAS x 7_IGAD x 5_NBI x 15_SADC x 29_SSATP x 2_AUR-N x 10_UAR-W x 4_UAR-C x 5_UAR-E x 8_UAR-S x 1_MRTC x 14_SARA x 1_950mm x 14_1000mm x 15_1067mm x 4_1435mm = 164 x 1015
Spending 1 minute on each linkage will exhaust the agenda after 312 billion years!
Beware the Drunkard’s Fallacy! www.railcorpstrat.com Abbreviations are listed on the last two slides
AFRICAN RAILWAY AGENDAS
Issues that Compound Africa’s Rail Challenge
Political instability
Contagion from political instability
Onerous expectations or requirements, e.g. resource companies must beneficiate
Litigation against potential investors
Alternative mineral sources emerging on other continents
Chinese tentacles
And more …
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AFRICAN RAILWAY AGENDAS
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Unintended Consequences
Note that modern investment in Africa’s railways has been confined to standalone systems— Heavy Haul and Urban Rail
Road transport has stepped up to deliver general transport networking requirements
Heavy Haul and Urban Rail are exposed to fewer stakeholder linkages and issues and can therefore exhaust the agenda and reach closure in a shorter time
Works against establishment of a network on which new mines can piggyback
AFRICAN RAILWAY AGENDAS
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4
CONCLUSIONS
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Now that we have assessed the situation …
The crucial issue is not about doing the technology
We know how to do heavy haul—consultants, expats, IHHA proceedings, guidelines to best practice, etc.
Rather, it is about creating an environment conducive to funding, building and operating railways
If we want more than Heavy Haul and Urban Rail in Africa we will need to find a way to shorten the agenda
CONCLUSIONS
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Compelling insight from original research
Abbreviations
CEMAC Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa
COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
EAC East African Community
ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States
ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States
IGAD Inter-Governmental Authority for Government
NBI Nile Basin Initiative
SADC Southern African Development Community
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Abbreviations
SSATP Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Program
MRTC Maghreb Rail Transport Committee
SARA Southern African Railways Association
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