THE FORECLOSURE CRISISBAY AREA CASE STUDY

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Research Focus Focus: U.S. Department of Housing and

Urban Development (HUD) Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)

Research question: Is NSP funding the cities most in need? Analysis of foreclosure rates Effects on low income and minority populations

Case study: San Francisco-Bay Area Data sources: 2000 U.S. Census, 2005-2009

American Communities Survey, 2010 RealtyTrac, and 2011 HUD data

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Case Study: Bay Area

One of the areas hardest hit by the foreclosure crisis

Nine Bay Area counties total

Four counties received NSP funds: Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, and Solano

Five counties were not funded: Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Sonoma

Source: 2010 U.S. Census Data

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Bad News Nationwide 2.9 million U.S. home foreclosures in

2010 Nationwide 2% rise in foreclosures 72% increase in foreclosures in large

U.S. cities Predictions of a 20% increase in

foreclosures for 2011

Sources: “Foreclosures decline in California in 2010,” Alexander Lazo, The Los Angeles Times, January 13, 2011, “Foreclosure filings could swell 20% this year,” Dan Levy

and Prashant Gopal, The Los Angeles Times, January 14, 2011 and “Foreclosures rose in 72% of U.S. cities in 2010,” Dan Levy, The Los Angeles Times, January 28, 2011

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Better News for CA? Over 500,000 California homes were in

foreclosure in 2010 14% drop in foreclosures in California 19 out of 20 cities with the highest

foreclosure rate were in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona

Source: Alexander Lazo, “Foreclosures decline in California in 2010,” The Los Angeles Times, January 13, 2011 and “Foreclosures rose in 72% of U.S. cities in 2010,” Dan Levy,

The Los Angeles Times, January 28, 2011

6Note: State of California funding excluded.

Source: 2010 U.S. Census and 2011 U.S Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

NPS invested $7 billion of federal funds to mitigate “the impact of foreclosures through the purchase and rehabilitation of foreclosed, vacant properties in order to create more affordable housing and renew neighborhoods devastated by the economic crisis.”

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State of CASolano

Contra CostaAlameda

Santa ClaraMontereyImperialMadera

San DiegoFresno

KernOrange

San JoaquinStanislaus

SacramentoSan Bernardino

RiversideLos Angeles

$0 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000

$152,848,525

$4,402,454

$16,438,850

$22,447,682

$36,426,987

$1,284,794

$1,708,780

$5,561,076

$17,416,594

$20,746,400

$28,717,185

$31,703,593

$32,244,291

$45,805,305 $46,165,159

$86,048,791

$107,615,501

$286,452,907

Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) Funding

Total NSP FundingCo

untie

s

Bay Area Counties

Other CA Counties

Source: 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development

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NSP Summary Created by the Housing and Economic

Revitalization Act of 2009 (HERA) Three rounds of NSP funding; two rounds of

funds distributed by a formula and one round was a competitive application process

States, counties, cities, and nonprofits use NSP funds to purchase and/or rehabilitate foreclosed, blighted, or vacant properties

Households assisted must be 120% of area median income (AMI) and 25% of the grant must serve households below 50% AMI

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Bay Area Demographics 2005-2009 American Community Survey

Data: Total Population Minority Population Families Below Poverty Level Median Household Income Median House Value Median Gross Rent

Foreclosures from June 2009-2010 RealtyTrac Data

10 Source: 2005-2009 American Community Survey and 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

California Bay Area0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

29,357,763

6,950,764

14,050,485 (39%)

2,982,924 (43%)

Population and Mi-noritiesTotal PopulationMinority Population

11 Source: 2005-2009 American Community Survey Data and 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

8,333,69

0

1,618,138 (10%)

Poverty in California

Total FamiliesFamilies Below Poverty Level

819,788

102,517 (6%)

Poverty in Bay Area

Total FamiliesFamilies Below Poverty Level

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Bay Area Housing Data

The Bay Area is expensive: Bay Area residents earn

25% more than other Californians

Home values in the Bay Area are nearly 30% higher than other places in California

California Bay Area$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$60,392 $75,627

$479,200

$617,441

Income and House ValuesMedian Income Median House Value

Source: 2005-2009 American Community Survey Data

13 Source: 2005-2009 American Community Survey Data and 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

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Bay Area Foreclosures

21,000 estimated foreclosures in the Bay Area in 2010

Over 173,000 foreclosures in other CA countiesMarin

San Francisco

Napa

San Mateo

Sonoma

Santa Clara

Solano

Alameda

Contra Costa

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

169

301

417

737

1,452

3,280

3,735

5,405

5,558

Bay Area Foreclosures

Properties Foreclosed

Coun

ties

Source: 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

15 Source: 2005-2009 American Community Survey, June 2009-2010 RealtyTrac, and 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

16 Source: 2005-2009 American Community Survey, June 2009-2010 RealtyTrac, and 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

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Take Aways The Bay Area is an expensive area with

high housing costs NSP funded counties in the Bay Area

with high foreclosure rates Funding is in dense, diverse areas Funding is not in affluent or poverty

areas Foreclosures disproportionately affected

minorities

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Next Steps Research income data for 120% of AMI

and 50% AMI which coincides with NSP requirements

Review data on delinquent mortgages, house price change, and unemployment

Further analysis of each county in the Bay Area

Breakdown racial data by specific groups Compare Bay Area and California data to

U.S. data

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Summary of GIS Skills Geographic Information System (GIS)

Skills Utilized:1. Inset Map2. Point Graduated Symbol3. Aggregating Attribute Data4. Attribute Sub-sets Selections5. Boundary Sub-sets Selections6. Geoprocessing Layers

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Detailed List of GIS SkillsMap GIS Skills Notes

San Francisco-Bay Area Counties Inset Map California and Bay Area counties

Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties selected as layer

Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) Funding Aggregating Attribute Fields NSP funding combines county, city and nonprofit funding for each county. State of California funding excluded from analysis.

Point Graduated Symbol Proportional dots for NSP funding amount

Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties selected as layer

Minorities and Total Population in Bay Area Counties Aggregating Attribute Fields Racial minorities combines race categories: Black or African American Alone, American Indian and Alaska Native Alone, Asian Alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Alone, Some Other Race Alone, and Two or More races.

Geoprocessing Layers Dot density layer for Racial Minorities and graduated color layer for Total Population

Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties

Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties

Poverty and Median Income in Bay Area Counties Geoprocessing Layers Dot density for Families Below Poverty Level layer and graduated color layer for Median Household Income

Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties

Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties

Median House Value and Rent in Bay Area Counties Geoprocessing Layers Graduated color layer for Median House Value and Median Gross Rent

Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties

Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties

Foreclosures and Population in Bay Area Counties Geoprocessing Layers Dot density layer for Foreclosures and graduated color layer for Total Population

Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties

Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties

Foreclosures and Minorities in Bay Area Counties Aggregating Attribute Fields Racial minorities combined race categories: Black or African American Alone, American Indian and Alaska Native Alone, Asian Alone, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Alone, Some Other Race Alone, and Two or More races.

Geoprocessing Layers Dot density layer for Foreclosures and graduated color layer for Minorities

Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties

Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties

Foreclosures and Median Income in Bay Area Counties Geoprocessing Layers Dot density layer for Foreclosures and graduated color layer for Median Income

Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties

Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties

Foreclosures and Poverty in Bay Area Counties Geoprocessing Layers Dot density layer for Foreclosures and graduated color layer for Families Below Poverty Level

Boundary Sub-sets Selection Bay Area counties

Attribute Sub-sets Selection NSP funding by counties

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Photo Credits

Slide #1 – The Los Angeles Times, December 18, 2007, Location: Palmdale, CA

Slide #1 - David Butow, The Los Angeles Times, January 6, 2011, Location: Stockton, CA