the extratropical transitions of danielle and earl (1998) ron mctaggart-cowan j.r. gyakum, m.k. yau
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TRANSCRIPT
The Extratropical Transitions of
Danielle and Earl (1998)
Ron McTaggart-Cowan
J.R. Gyakum, M.K. Yau
Outline• Motivation and ET background• Case description• Important upstream features• Important downstream features• PVmc introduction• Importance of remnant vortex• Discussion
ET Background•50% of Atlantic hurricanes ET
•The resulting storm is often more intense than the hurricane
•ETs are very hard to forecast in real time
Case Description• Danielle reaches five
intensity maxima – 55 ms-1
• Earl develops in the Gulf of Mexico and only reaches Category 2 before landfall
Danielle
Earl
Case Description• Both storms transition and
reintensify rapidly between 0000 UTC 5 September and 0000 UTC 7 September
Earl: water vapour image from 1200
UTC 6 September
Case Description• Both storms transition and
reintensify rapidly between 0000 UTC 5 September and 0000 UTC 7 September
Danielle: infrared image from 1200
UTC 6 September
Case Description• The MC2 model is used to sim-ulate
the ETs of Danielle and Earl• Traditional synoptic diagnostics
provide insight into the transition process
• 250 hPa winds, 1000-500 hPa thickness, and SLP serve as an introduction to the case
Case Description• The MC2 model is used to sim-ulate
the ETs of Danielle and Earl
00 hValid 0000 UTC 5 Sept
Case Description• The MC2 model is used to sim-ulate
the ETs of Danielle and Earl
12 hValid 1200 UTC 5 Sept
Case Description• The MC2 model is used to sim-ulate
the ETs of Danielle and Earl
24 hValid 0000 UTC 6 Sept
Case Description• The MC2 model is used to sim-ulate
the ETs of Danielle and Earl
36 hValid 1200 UTC 6 Sept
Case Description• The MC2 model is used to sim-ulate
the ETs of Danielle and Earl
48 hValid 0000 UTC 7 Sept
Upstream Features
• PV features are identified and removed
• Sensitivity of ET to each feature is determined
Upstream Features• The upstream trough is the most
important feature• The ex-hurricane plays a secondary
role
• Simultaneous ET and intensifica-tion simulated with MC2 model
• The dynamic tropopause (DT, 2PVU) potential temperature describes the upper-level dynamics
• Near-surface potential (850 hPa) temperatures act as surrogate PV at lower levels
Downstream Features
Downstream Features• Simultaneous ET and intensifica-tion
simulated with MC2 model
00 hValid 0000 UTC 5 Sept
Downstream Features• Simultaneous ET and intensifica-tion
simulated with MC2 model
12 hValid 1200 UTC 5 Sept
Downstream Features• Simultaneous ET and intensifica-tion
simulated with MC2 model
24 hValid 0000 UTC 6 Sept
Downstream Features• Simultaneous ET and intensifica-tion
simulated with MC2 model
36 hValid 1200 UTC 6 Sept
Downstream Features• Simultaneous ET and intensifica-tion
simulated with MC2 model
48 hValid 0000 UTC 7 Sept
Downstream Features• With a benign downstream state, the
transition is tropical mode
48 hValid 0000 UTC 7 Sept
Downstream Features• With only a simplified NA jet/front, the
transition is baroclinic mode
48 hValid 0000 UTC 7 Sept
PVmc Introduction
• Our upstream study found small sensitivity to the remnant TC
• Removal of both dry dynamics and moisture is required
• Moist Component PV links dynamics and moisture in a balanced way
PVmc Introduction
• PVmc highlights regions of dynamic and thermodynamic importance
850 hPa PVmc and winds (kts) for control initial conditions
00 h
Remnant Vortex• Combining PV and PVmc
modifications allows for the complete removal of the TC remnants
• The tropical mode ET (Danielle) should be more sensitive to the moisture modifications
Remnant VortexControl Danielle Removed
850 hPa geopotential heights (3 dam) and specific humidity (g/kg) in the initial conditions before (left) and after (right) the complete removal of ex-hurricane Danielle.
Remnant Vortex
• Baroclinic mode (Earl) is insensitive to vortex removal
• Tropical mode (Danielle) is influenced by the structure of the remnant TC
Discussion• Two transition modes identified:
tropical and baroclinic• Upstream trough is necessary and
sufficent for baroclinic mode ET• Tropical mode ET also requires
remnant TC vortex• Downstream jet modulates the
transition mode
Discussion• Advanced diagnostic tools are
required for the investigation of ET dynamics and thermo-dynamics …
Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU) and 850 hPa equivalent potential temperature