the external environment for developing...

February 18, 2009

This monthly brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Hans Timmer, and comprising Mick Riordan (G-3 countries, foreign exchange, overall edits), John Baffes (trade), Betty Dow and Shane Streifel (primary commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina Savescu (production) and Gauresh Rajadhyaksha (high-frequency data and Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by

the World Bank Group.

The External Environment for Developing Countries February 2009

Overview

World industrial production declined by an unprecedented 20% in the fourth quarter of 2008 (annualized rate or ‘saar’). And the potential for further contraction is high—by a possible 19% and 7% in the first and second quarters of 2009, respectively (saar). GDP growth is following the path of industrial production closely, albeit with much smaller amplitude. All developed economies now show large GDP compression, with the biggest hit taken by Japan with a 12.7% annualized falloff in the fourth quarter grounded in a virtual collapse in exports. Several large developing economies are expected to show quarterly declines for late 2008 and early 2009. Policy makers are responding (See Focus).

World trade is on track to register the largest decline in 80 years with the sharpest losses in East Asia. Exports from the region consist mainly of manufactured products, and the effect on Asian trade of the steep falloff in global investment is larger than in other parts of the world. Investment also makes up a much larger share of these economies. The latter explains why Japan and Korea—specialized durable goods producers—have suffered more than proportionally, with export values declining by more-than 50% annualized rates.

Credit quality for several emerging market sovereigns is deteriorating, with recent downgrades for Latvia, Russia, and Ukraine, and with additional countries likely to follow. This may be viewed as more a reflection of declining production and trade, increasing unemployment (with severe consequences for fiscal positions) than an indication of further deterioration in global financial market conditions. Indeed, equity markets have moved sideways for several months (though with high volatility) while bond markets cautiously opened up in January.

Commodity markets seem to have found a bottom, as the sharp price declines of the Fall of 2008 have served to suppress supply. Still, stocks are building in many markets. U.S. crude oil stocks have reached capacity constraints, leading to the exceptional situation in which U.S. WTI prices are trading at a $5 to $10/bbl discount to Brent and Dubai prices.

-24

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

1990M1 1992M1 1994M1 1996M1 1998M1 2000M1 2002M1 2004M1 2006M1 2008M1

Sharp contraction in global production

Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

global industrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar)

Deteriorating credit quality for Emerging Market Sovereigns

Upgrades minus Downgrades

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

Source: Bloomberg, EMTA and DECPG Finance Team.

* as of Feb-13, 2009

February 18, 2009 External Environment for Developing Countries page 2

Global Indicators

Global Indicators (Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)

2007 2008 2009f 2010f

GDP volume: World 3.7 2.5 0.9 3.0 Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 4.9 3.6 1.9 4.2 High-income countries 2.6 1.3 -0.1 2.0 Developing countries 7.9 6.3 4.4 6.0 Industrial production: World 4.4 0.6 ... ... High-income countries 2.4 -1.7 ... ... Developing countries 9.8 6.3 ... ...

Export volume (GNFS): World 7.5 6.2 -2.1 6.0 High-income countries 6.2 5.9 -3.7 5.1 Developing countries 10.4 7.1 2.1 8.1 Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 5.5 7.5 1.9 1.0 Oil ($/bbl) 71.1 97.0 47.8 52.7 Non-oil commodities 17.1 23.2 -30.5 -1.6

Nominal interest rates: $LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 4.5 3.1 1.6 2.3 LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 4.5 4.7 2.3 2.8 Financial flows FDI ($billion) 532 480 ... ... Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 652 370 252 ... Equity placement ($bn) 194 48 25 ... Bond financing ($bn) 146 65 104 ... Lending ($bn) 312 257 122 ...

Source: DECPG, February 2009. Estimates and projections based on GEP-2009, released 12-9-2008.

Note(s): a. Gross inflows 2009 based on year-to-date figures. Figures in bold represent changes this month.


United States GDP slides 3.8%. Fourth quarter GDP surprised to the upside of expectations for decline of 5.5%. But the falloff is the most severe since 1982, with consumer spending sliding for a second quarter (3.5% following 3.8% declines); business investment plummeting 20%, while the downtrend in housing continued and picked-up to a drop of 24% from 13% in the second quarter. Net trade registered a small negative, but hides a massive 20% contraction in U.S. exports offset by a 16% fall in import demand. Inventory dynamics added 1.1 points to growth. For all of 2008 the economy expanded 1.3%, with exports and government tax rebates in the first half offsetting decline in the final two quarters of the year. Job losses surge. January employment data showed job losses of 598,000; and with revisions raising employment declines for November and December 2008 toward 600,000, the readings cap the worst string of jobs data since records began in 1939. Manufacturers dropped 207,000 employees in the month; builders contracted by 111,000 and services industries cut 279,000 employees after a massive 327,000 reduction in the month preceding. The number of jobs lost stand at 3.57 million since the official start of recession, while the unemployment rate surged to 7.6% in January from 7.2% in December. Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped to 617,000 in the week ending February 13—bringing the number joining the dole queue to 4 million since the start of 2009. A tough start. Indicators of activity for January and February suggest that the economy will require time (as well as fiscal stimulus and financial support measures) to pull out of recession over the course of 2009. Housing starts fell in January at a large 16.8% pace (m/m) to record the fewest starts on record. Retail sales gained 1% in the month, grounded in deep discounts. Factory output slipped for a sixth time in seven months, falling 2.6% (m/m) in January and 21% at an annual rate. The Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys of regional activity show that decline continued unabated into February.

0.9

2.8

-0 .5

-3.8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Q1-2008 Q2-2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008

Source: Department of Commerce and DECPG calculations.

U.S. GDP falls 3.8% in fourth quarteron consumption and investment

growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points

StocksGovernmentConsumptionInvestmentNet Exports

Retail sales and industrial productionoff to tough start in 2009

retail sales and IPmfg, ch% saar

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09

Source: Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve.

Retail sales

Production

4 million persons have joined the jobless queue since start of 2009initial claims for unemployment insurance, weekly, 4week-ma

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650


Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

weekly

4-wk moving-avg


Japan

GDP plummets. A massive 12.7% contraction in Japan’s GDP in the fourth quarter (annualized) exceeded analysts’ expectations. And with the exception of small positive contributions to growth from government outlays, all demand segments combined to yield the sharpest fall in Japan’s GDP since the 1970s oil crisis. Continued reliance on exports was underscored as net trade subtracted a large 5.1 points of growth in the quarter—exports plummeted 45% while imports advanced 12% (saar), the former reflecting recession- in several of Japan’s key export markets. Investment dropped 11.3% in the quarter, as business scaled back amidst deteriorating conditions. And with industrial production falling 10% in December (m/m), what meager demand existed was met through a draw-down of inventories, subtracting another 5 points from growth. More bad news in the pipeline? The near free-fall of Japan’s exports has carried devastating effects to industrial production—factory output compressed 40% over the three months to December (saar), while new machinery orders dropped sharply in the month (1.7%), capping a three-month slide that had orders down 28% for the final quarter of 2008 (y/y). The dire conditions of the economy prompted the Bank of Japan to announce a ¥1 trillion ($11 billion) program to purchase shares owned by financial institutions to shore up capital routed by losses reported by Japanese exporters, and by the global stock market sell-off. Job losses mount. Consumer sentiment in Tokyo remained near its all-time low of December 2008 (26.2) by increasing modestly to 26.4 in January, despite signs of increasing layoffs and labor market difficulties. The jobless rate surged to 4.4% in December from 3.9% in the month preceding, while wages experienced their biggest decline in over a year. The worst deterioration in job prospects in some years is highlighted by a shift in the “job offers per applicant” ratio from 1.0 in December 2007 to 0.72 a year later. This suggests that household spending is unlikely to undergo any near-term revival.

0.6

-3.6-2.3

-12.7

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Q1-2008 Q2-2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008Source: Japan Cabinet Office and DECPG calculations.

Japan GDP plummets 12.7% as exports, capital spending drop sharply in Q4-08

growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points

GovernmentConsumption

InvestmentStocks

Net Exports

Japan’s trade and productionsuggest more bad news to come

export volumes and manufacturing output, ch% saar

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08-45

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

Source: Bank of Japan and Japan Cabinet Office.

IP [Left]

Export volume [R]

Labor market, consumer sentimentpoint to further slide in spending

unemployment rate, cash wage (ch% y/y) [L]; Consumer confidence [R]

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5


30

35

40

45

50

Source: Japan Cabinet Office.

Unemployment rate [L]

Consumer confidence [R]Cash wage (ch%) [L]


Euro Area

GDP falls. GDP in the Euro Area experienced its worst downturn in more-than 20 years during the final quarter of 2008, dropping 6% (saar), tied to a near-collapse in export markets, fallback in household spending and contracting corporate capital outlays. Though full details of the components of GDP are not yet available, Germany has been most severely affected of the larger members, with GDP plummeting 8.1% (saar), given its global trade prowess (now “an exposure”); exports and production collapsed in the fourth quarter. Italy saw a sharp 7% compression, with France a more ‘moderate’ decline, given a modicum of life in French consumer spending. And the United Kingdom, suffering its worst recession since the early 1980s, experienced a 5.9% falloff in growth. The trade problem. Germany’s export volumes fell 11.3% in December (m/m) on the heels of a record monthly decline (13.5%) in November. A dramatic falloff in trade performance during the second half of 2008 offset what was a fairly strong start to the year. Growth in key export markets—including economies in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, the Middle East, the United States and Britain began to suffer adverse affects from the burgeoning financial crisis. More ominously, German export orders dropped a full 53% during the fourth quarter (saar), and with current order books bare, elicited a similar freefall in output. On an annualized basis, production plunged 27% in the fourth quarter. More financial concerns. While European equity markets digest the dismal growth readings, concerns have risen regarding Western European banks that hold large exposures to affiliate- or independent institutions in Central and Eastern Europe. Fears are mounting that Western banks may face credit markdowns as economic conditions in ECA deteriorate and losses from the region accrue quickly. And there is a growing sense that several financially weaker members of the Euro Zone (for example Ireland, but also a number of Mediterranean countries) may get into difficulties in refinancing debt in unsettled market conditions.

European recession intensifies to worst in twenty years in Q4-08 GDP growth at seasonally adjusted annual rates

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

Germany Italy EUROAREA

U.K. France

Q1-2008 Q2-2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008

Source: EUROSTAT and DECPG calculations.

European exports drop at year-end 2008 export volumes: Germany and France, ch% saar

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08

Source: EUROSTAT through Thomson/Datastream.

Germany

France

Concerns about European banks and weaker member states mounting

DAX and CACI Index Jan07=100 [left]; IFO overall [R]

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-0985

90

95

100

105

110

115

Source: Thomson/Datastream and IFO.

IFO overall [R]

CACI [L]

DAX [L]


Industrial Production Production collapses. Global IP dropped by an unprecedented amount in the fourth quarter of 2008, an annualized pace of 21% (saar)—23% in high income countries and 15% for the aggregate of developing countries. Even as leading indicators are beginning to bounce off of rock-bottom levels, further output declines are expected for the first quarter of 2009. JPMorgan’s Global All-Industry PMI survey increased 3 points in January following a marginal rise in the previous month. And the U.S. ISM headline index for manufacturing activity edged up to 35.6 in January from 32.9 in December; readings for new orders increased to 33.2 from 23.1. Still, these figures stand well below the ISM ‘50’ threshold between growth and decline. IP suggests dismal GDP in fourth quarter. For many countries there is a strong (error-correction) relation between production and GDP. These correlations have predicted GDP contractions in several developing countries for the fourth quarter of 2008, notably Russia and Turkey with annualized declines of close to 5%. Argentina, Colombia, Croatia and Thailand are among the countries for which the model predicts GDP declines. Expanding the forecast further, using leading indicators to underpin production, suggests that GDP growth will be negative in during the first quarter for several developing countries. Bottoming out in China? Aggressive policy stimulus in China appears to be bearing some fruit, as seen in the rebound of the Manufacturing CLSA/MARKIT PMI to 39.8 in January from 38.6 in December. The NBS PMI Manufacturing new export orders index also points to easing pessimism on external demand, increasing 3 points to 33.7 in January. Inventory drawdown appears to be nearing an end. In December IP growth inched up to 5.9% from 5.6% the previous month (y/y).

-24

-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Sharp contraction in global productionwith further shrinkage envisaged


Industrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar)Forecast

Global production

Developing countries

A rebound in China’s output growth?

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

20

30

40

50

60

70

CLSA/MARKIT PMI:Mnf - Output

NBS PMI Mnf New Exp Orders

Forecast

Industrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar)


IP

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q1-99 Q1-00 Q1-01 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08

GDP contracted in the fourth quarterin emerging economies as well

Source: DECPG.

GDP in Russia, ch% (3m/3m saar)


International Trade

OECD transmits recession to the world. As economic crises have shown, trade can be a powerful initiator for transmission of shocks from one part of the globe to another—potentially building into a downward spiral in world trade. This phenomenon is asserting itself today, as initially a sharp falloff in U.S. import demand carried adverse effects to exports and activity in partners Japan and Europe. OECD demand, now retrenching in a synchronized fashion, affected exports from developing countries, spilling over to import demand quickly for the emerging markets, then coming to pressure high-income exports. And so on. OECD imports dropped abruptly in the final quarter of 2008, with U.S. import volumes compressing at an annual pace of 11.2% (saar); those in France by 10%, with Japan showing a recent upturn grounded in the stronger yen. East Asia collapse? Trade figures for East Asia: developing countries, high-income NIES and Japan, show an unprecedented falloff in exports during the final months of 2008. Expressed in nominal U.S. dollars, hence reflecting downturn in commodity prices exported by several countries, the data are nonetheless alarming. Exports range between decline of 52% for China to 80% in Taiwan (PC) through January 2009 (saar). Asia is more sensitive to developments in the OECD than earlier thought—especially with China at the hub for assembly of final products for shipment to OECD partners, with a large proportion of intermediate goods supplied by Korea, ASEAN members and the NIEs. Intra-region trade appears to have imploded; and the export downturn is being echoed in slowing GDP growth. Trade balances. The United States and Japan both are enjoying terms of trade advantages with the backing-down of oil prices. But effects of crisis are carrying disparate trends to trade balances. The U.S. has seen improvement of some $23 billion on trade balance over the second half of 2008, as exports gained for a time while imports continued to fall (in part linked to oil prices). In contrast, Japan’s exports fell by much more than imports, yielding a trade deficit in late 2008 for the first since the early 1970s.

OECD imports almost “off a cliff” at year-end 2008 import volumes: U.S., Japan and France, ch% saar

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08

Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.

USA

Japan

France

Imploding East Asia trade export values (USD), ch% saar

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60


Source: National Agencies through Haver Analytics.

Japan China

Korea

Taiwan (PC)

Trade balances shift as terms of trade and crisis effects accrue balance of goods trade in local currency: U.S. and Japan

-80

-75

-70

-65

-60

-55

-50

Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Source: National Agencies through Thomson/Datastream.

USA [Left]

Japan [Right]


Commodity Prices Oil hovers near $40/bbl. Crude oil prices (WB average) have traded in a relatively narrow range since early January, averaging $42.40/bbl, but dipped below $40/bbl in the second week of February. Global oil demand remains quite weak, falling 2.5% or 2.2mb/d in 4Q-08, with OECD demand plunging 5.2% or 2.6mb/d. Non-OECD demand growth eased sharply to 1% or less-than 0.4mb/d (some 1mb/d below average growth of the last years), with all of the net increase coming from the Middle East. OPEC announced production cuts of more than 4mb/d since September and output for the 12 members (excluding Iraq) has dropped 2.4mb/d over the past four months. Further reductions in output are expected for February and OPEC suggests that additional cuts are possible. Oil stocks rising. Global crude oil stocks increased counter-cyclically in the fourth quarter and in January 2009—a time when inventories typically fall during peak winter demand. Despite cold weather and OPEC cuts, oil supplies continue to overwhelm weak demand, and crude oil inventories continue to climb. Much of the reported OECD build is occurring in the United States as European and Pacific inventories have trended near normal. Moreover, there are estimates of 50-80 million barrels of oil being stored in offshore tankers, primarily in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. Deep contango in futures markets and falling freight rates (related to OPEC production cuts) have enhanced the economics of storing oil at sea. WTI prices down vis-à-vis Brent. The price of landlocked U.S. WTI crude—which usually trades at a $1.50/bbl premium to internationally-traded Brent—slumped several dollars under Brent in recent months, as demand falls and inventories rise. Inventories are approaching operational limits, and this has pushed spot prices substantially lower, contributing to steep contango in futures markets. Prices for heavier international crudes such as Dubai have risen relative to Brent, partly due to OPEC cuts and relatively strong heavy fuel oil prices brought about by reduced refining runs.

Crude oil inventories still rising on weak demand

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

M bbl

5-year high-low ranges

Source: U.S. Department of Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.

Crude oil prices stabilize on OPEC production cuts$/bbl

World Bank Average Price

Source: Thomson/Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09

Crude price differentials diverge on rising U.S. stocks and OPEC cuts

-12

-10-8-6

-4-20

24

68

1012

14

Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09

$/bbl

WTI

Brent

Dubai

Source: Thomson/Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.


Agriculture prices up in January. Agriculture prices rebounded by near 8% in January on expected supply reductions, notably due to drought in South America. Prices have been generally flat-to-weaker in the first weeks of February. The largest gain in January was in rubber, surging 23% as governments in key Asian producers announced measures to restrain supply. Soybean meal prices also jumped 23% due to severe crop damage in Argentina and to a lesser degree in Brazil and Paraguay. Maize prices leapt due to uncertainty regarding Southern Hemisphere production, while wheat prices increased on concerns of drought in China’s wheat growing areas. Metals prices stabilize. Metals prices have broadly stabilized, with prices moderately higher in January—except for aluminum which is still in large oversupply. Although global demand is extremely weak and stocks continue to increase, there have been significant cutbacks in production for most main metals, particularly for zinc. In addition, a tentative recovery in demand by steel producers has improved market sentiment. In the first half of February prices have been broadly flat for most metals, but copper prices are up 5% on restocking in China, including purchases of copper overseas by the State Reserve Bureau. Nickel prices on the other hand fell 9% on extreme weakness in the stainless steel sector. Gold prices surge. Gold (and silver) prices have risen sharply from autumn lows on physical investment demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), bars and coins, as investors turn to gold amidst very uncertain investment returns. Gold has moved above $970/toz. This has offset weak demand from traditional buyers, e.g., jewelry fabricators, as there is typically strong buyer resistance from this sector when prices start to retest their highs. Gold has also broken away from its close correlation with the US$/euro exchange rate of the last several years, as investors look to the metal as a safe haven in the current deflationary environment and possibly for a larger inflationary problem in the longer term.

100

150

200

250

300

350


GrainsFats & Oils

Beverages

Other Food

Food prices rebound in January on supply concerns(2000=100)

Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

Metals prices stabilize on production cuts

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000


10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000Cu $/ton Zn $/ton

Zinc

Copper

Nickel

Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

Gold prices rise on safe-haven buying

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-091.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60$/toz $/euro

Gold price

$/euro

Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.


International Finance

Bonds underpin flows in January. Capital flows began 2009 on fairly firm footing, supported by increased bond issuance. Bond flows were still much reduced at $19 billion, however, contrasted with the $30 billion average of January’s 2005-to-2008, but issuance well outpaced the whole of fourth quarter 2008 ($4.9 billion). January tends to be the busiest months for bonds, averaging 15% of the year’s total issuance. Sovereigns continued to dominate in new issuance markets ($5.8 billion of sovereign- versus $2.8 billion of corporate issuance), as many took advantage of strong local demand and improving market conditions. Brazil, Colombia, the Philippines, Poland and Turkey issued bonds with values in excess of $1 billion each. Meanwhile, bank lending was weak; and there has been no activity recorded for equity issuance for a third month in succession. Equities mixed. EM equities are performing somewhat better than mature markets over 2009 to date, with a gain of 0.3%. Some have posted strong positive returns, with China at double-digit gains (27%)—the biggest advance among benchmarks worldwide. This is a sharp turnabout from 2008, when EM stocks retrenched more than developed-market counterparts, largely through China’ tumble of 65%. Other markets have also shown strong gains so far in 2009: Brazil (7%), Chile (9%) and Russia (5%). But Mexico is down 15%, underperforming the LAC region, and bourses in Poland and Turkey are down 22% and 11% respectively. EM stocks will remain pressured as financial institutions’ de- leveraging continues while recession adversely affects investor sentiment. Negative ratings. Credit quality has turned negative for emerging market sovereigns thus far in 2009 with 4 downgrades and 1 upgrade. Significant ratings deterioration is found largely in Emerging Europe, with recent cuts for Latvia, Russia, and Ukraine. Fitch Ratings cut its view on Russia, citing risk associated with falling oil prices, heavy capital flight, dwindling foreign reserves, and corporate debt refinancing problems. Market sentiment remains fragile and further markdowns to non-investment grade status is a concern for a number of countries.

January capital flows feature a modest revival in bond issuance

Source: DECPG Finance Team.

$ billion 2009

Jan H1 H2 Total Jan H1 H2 D ec T otal Jan

Total 35 349 302 652 30 251 119 17 370 19

Bonds 21 107 39 146 7 53 12 3 65 9

Banks 9 156 156 312 17 151 106 14 257 10

Equity 5 86 107 194 6 47 2 0 48 0

Lat. Am erica 10 69 87 156 9 56 24 6 80 9

Bonds 4 31 14 45 4 17 3 2 20 5

E. Europe 13 156 91 247 5 98 56 5 155 6

Bonds 10 50 14 64 1 27 8 0.4 35 2

Asia 9 93 94 188 14 69 23 4 92 4

Bonds 5 18 6 23 3 7 0.4 0 7 2

Others 3 31 30 61 2 27 15 3 43 0

2007 2008

Several BRICs have postedstrong equity gains over 2009 to date

Total return in LCU, 2009 to date (%)

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

PolandVietnamMexico

Nikkei-225Euro Stoxx-50

S&P-500Turkey

DevelopedIndia

IndonesiaEM (MSCI)

ArgentinaRussia

BrazilChile

China

Source: Bloomberg and DECPG Finance Team.

Deteriorating credit quality for Emerging Market Sovereigns

Upgrades minus Downgrades

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*

Source: Bloomberg, EMTA and DECPG Finance Team.

* as of Feb-13, 2009


Currencies

Dollar retains traction. The dollar continued to gain against the euro through mid-February, standing at $1.2579 on the 17th of the month. The U.S. unit’s ascent has accumulated to 17% vis-à-vis the euro since the currency’s $1.44 peak of December 17th. 8.3 percentage points of the gain occurred over January, as the magnitude of the European growth slowdown became clearer. With expectations now entrain for the ECB to cut intervention rates more aggressively in March interest differentials favoring the euro had narrowed to ‘nil’ by mid-February. The yen’s relative strength has given way to moderate depreciation, closing trade at ¥92.38 on February 17, some 2% weaker on the month. Easing of carry trades out of East Asian emerging markets is a possible factor in this development. Europe’s policy bind. There are increasing concerns within the Euro Area about the depth of recession revealed by the fall of the Zone’s GDP by 6% in the fourth quarter (saar). Prospects appear dim at this juncture, given the state of domestic demand and the demise of export market growth. Against this background, and with inflation easing in step with falling commodity prices, the ECB is expected to act with more vigor to cut interest rates (from current 2% levels) and move to provide more effective support for the banking system. Already high exposures of European banks to counterparts in Central Europe have raised concern; at the same time the possibility that several financially stressed sovereign signatories to the Maastricht Treaty may require funding support is troubling. The euro appears set for depreciation over the next months. EM currencies. Emerging market currencies have broadly declined in step (or more-than in step) with the majors against the dollar. Countries facing financial pressure, including Russia and several Central European economies have witnessed double digit declines since the turn of the year. In contrast, currencies that had dropped sharply in late 2008 have recouped a portion of losses, including the Korean won, South African rand and Brazilian rei.

1.230

1.270

1.310

1.350

1.390

1.430

1.470

1.510

1.550

1.590

1.630

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09

86

90

94

98

102

106

110

Source: Thomson/Datastream.

yen/USD

USD/Euro (inverse)

Dollar continues gains against euromodest upturn vis-à-vis yen

USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09

Pro-euro interest differentials narrowas more bullish ECB reponse expected

USD Libor and EURIBOR (6 months), percent

EURIBOR 6 months

USD LIBOR 6 months


Emerging market currencies largely down vs the dollar over 2009 to date

percentage change (USD per LCU) (%)

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5

Rus RblPol ztyHun frt

Czk krnMex pso

Tur lraNT$

US NEERChn Rmb

Brz reiPhl psoInd rpeZaf R

Kor won



Focus Hans Timmer

The size of the U.S. stimulus package The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published the details of the Obama Administration’s stimulus package as it came out of Conference Committee. Estimates are presented for additional outlays on discretionary spending, additional costs of transfers minus taxes, and the resulting impact on the deficit over the current- and the next ten fiscal years. The CBO estimates do not contain indirect effects (like increased debt service or increased revenues due to boost in economic activity). The cumulative deterioration of the fiscal deficit over 11 year is $787 billion. But it is not clear to what extent these are all additional measures. For example, the package includes a patch-up of the Alternative Minimum Tax (needed because the ATM is not indexed) at the cost of some $70 billion. Such a fix would probably have occurred under any circumstances. Flash estimate for size of the Obama Fiscal Stimulus Package

2009 2010 2011 2012/ 2019 total

nominal US% billions appropriations 34.8 110.7 76.3 86.4 308.2 transfers-taxes 150.1 288.7 58.1 -18.1 478.8 deficit 184.9 399.4 134.4 68.3 787.0 as % of 2008 GDP appropriations 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.6 2.2 transfers-taxes 1.1 2.0 0.4 -0.1 3.4 deficit 1.3 2.8 0.9 0.5 5.5

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Transfers include support to the States. Government consumption is currently about 20% of GDP (7.5% of GDP for Federal spending; 12.5% for State/Local). Years in the accompanying table refer to fiscal years, ending September. Most of the tax cuts and transfers will be effective in 2009 and 2010. But additional discretionary spending will continue well beyond 2010. Economic effects in the current fiscal year (when stimulus is most needed) are limited, because only two quarters remain. If in the short run the total economic impact is equal to the initial impact (i.e. import leakage and crowding out are compensated for by the consumption multiplier and investment accelerator; an assumption not too far off from modeling results) and the labor intensity of additional GDP equals the average labor intensity, then employment would be 2.8 percent higher at the end of FY2010 than without stimulus, which amounts to 3.8 million jobs. Additional imports (at an import content of 17%, the average for the economy) in 2010 would be $68 billion, or 0.2% of the rest of the world’s GDP.


Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2009

2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec Jan

World 100.0 2.7 4.5 4.4 0.6 3.3 0.5 -4.4 -21.2 -1.2 -3.2 -3.6 ..

High-income countries 77.2 1.5 2.9 2.4 -1.7 0.1 -2.7 -5.8 -23.2 -1.1 -3.6 -4.0 ..

Industrial countries 72.7 1.5 3.1 2.6 -1.9 -0.4 -3.1 -5.8 -23.0 -1.1 -3.6 -4.0 ..

United States 25.1 1.4 2.2 1.7 -1.7 0.4 -3.4 -8.9 -11.5 1.8 -1.3 -2.0 ..

Japan 17.3 1.1 4.1 2.9 -3.1 -1.7 -3.5 -4.6 -39.2 -3.4 -7.9 -9.2 ..

Euro Area 22.9 1.3 3.4 2.8 -2.1 -0.3 -4.6 -4.5 -23.3 -2.4 -2.9 -3.1 ..

United Kindgom 4.1 -0.3 0.7 0.4 -2.9 -2.9 -3.8 -6.7 -16.7 -1.7 -2.5 -1.7 ..

Other high income 4.5 .. 1.6 0.6 .. 11.1 0.2 -2.4 .. -2.3 -6.1 .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.2 .. 2.4 -1.6 .. -12.5 -3.5 -10.2 .. .. .. .. ..

Singapore 0.4 6.3 12.0 6.3 -4.2 36.5 -39.0 2.3 -25.1 -8.8 3.3 -7.4 ..

Taiwan (China) 1.1 4.6 4.6 8.2 -1.6 -6.5 2.8 -10.5 -63.4 -7.0 -17.9 -5.8 ..

Developing countries 22.8 6.6 8.8 9.8 6.3 10.3 8.5 -1.5 -14.8 -1.3 -2.3 -2.3 ..

East Asia and Pacific 8.7 11.4 13.0 15.0 11.2 17.4 15.8 -0.4 -10.3 -1.3 -1.6 0.6 ..

China 6.3 13.8 16.5 17.7 13.0 19.2 19.3 0.3 -9.4 -1.8 -1.7 1.6 ..

Indonesia 0.9 .. -2.0 5.7 .. 15.4 -0.2 -8.6 .. 2.9 4.2 .. ..

Thailand 0.6 8.6 7.3 8.2 5.3 7.1 0.4 4.9 -35.7 1.2 -8.6 -12.2 ..

Malaysia 0.5 5.9 5.0 2.1 0.2 1.6 -2.2 -7.2 -25.3 -2.1 -1.9 -7.3 ..

Europe and Central Asia 3.2 5.1 7.9 7.1 1.1 6.0 3.0 -6.0 -29.6 -3.2 -4.7 -6.7 ..

Russian Federation 1.0 5.5 6.5 6.3 2.3 3.3 9.3 1.2 -31.5 -3.0 -8.4 -3.5 ..

Turkey 0.5 3.7 8.0 6.8 -0.8 13.5 -8.1 -17.5 -31.1 -2.1 5.2 -18.8 ..

Poland 0.6 6.4 11.8 9.5 3.3 15.6 1.8 -14.2 -18.5 -1.7 -4.9 -3.7 ..

Czech Republic 0.2 5.2 11.0 8.8 0.5 6.2 3.8 -7.4 -41.0 -8.9 -4.8 -2.2 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 6.2 .. 4.3 4.4 .. -0.2 -0.4 1.0 .. -0.4 -3.9 .. ..

Brazil 1.8 3.3 2.9 5.9 3.0 1.8 3.2 10.2 -32.7 -1.4 -7.2 -12.4 ..

Mexico 1.7 .. 5.3 1.8 .. -2.0 -3.9 -3.3 .. 1.5 -0.9 .. ..

Argentina 0.8 .. 7.7 6.0 .. -0.2 -0.1 -2.6 .. -1.6 -1.3 .. ..

Colombia 0.3 .. 10.7 10.7 .. -10.9 0.7 -14.4 .. -1.6 -5.3 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.9 .. -0.5 -0.4 .. 8.3 3.1 2.3 .. 0.0 -0.2 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 1.2 .. -4.2 -4.7 .. 10.3 6.5 6.6 .. 0.7 -5.1 .. ..

Iran 0.4 .. -2.7 -2.9 .. 11.1 2.2 6.0 .. 0.0 -2.0 .. ..

Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria 0.3 .. 0.9 1.1 .. 2.5 4.2 -0.7 .. -0.2 0.3 .. ..

South Asia 1.6 6.7 10.6 9.2 4.0 8.4 1.1 -1.0 -8.3 -2.7 0.8 -1.8 ..

India 1.3 6.7 10.5 9.9 4.2 7.1 0.2 1.6 -8.7 -3.4 1.4 -1.8 ..

Pakistan 0.2 .. 10.6 5.6 .. 18.1 4.0 -19.4 .. 2.7 -3.9 .. ..

Bangladesh 0.1 .. 11.1 6.1 .. 9.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 .. 3.7 5.5 .. 1.1 6.5 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 0.4 2.6 4.7 4.2 1.0 -2.0 15.0 -10.5 -21.0 -0.2 -4.8 -4.0 ..

Nigeria 0.3 .. 0.2 -0.7 .. 2.6 -7.6 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 75.9 1.5 3.3 2.7 -1.8 0.0 -3.0 -6.1 -22.7 -1.2 -3.4 -4.2 ..

Developing excl. China 16.6 .. 5.1 5.5 .. 4.5 1.7 -2.3 .. -1.1 -2.7 .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.9 .. -1.4 0.7 .. 8.6 -0.7 -2.8 .. 1.0 1.2 .. ..

Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 7.7 10.6 11.2 6.9 10.5 9.9 -1.2 -16.5 -1.7 -2.7 -2.3 ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/)

aIn general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.




Real GDP a

High-income countries 78.5 .. 2.9 2.6 .. 1.0 0.3 -0.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 75.4 .. 2.8 2.4 .. 1.3 0.4 -0.9 .. .. .. .. ..

United States 10.9 2.6 2.8 2.0 1.3 0.9 2.8 -0.5 -3.8 .. .. .. ..

Japan 20.9 1.3 2.1 2.4 -0.7 0.6 -3.6 -2.3 -12.7 .. .. .. ..

Euro Area 27.2 .. 3.0 2.6 .. 2.6 -0.7 -0.8 .. .. .. .. ..

United Kindgom 6.2 .. 2.8 3.0 .. 1.5 0.0 -2.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Other high income 3.2 .. 5.9 6.1 .. -8.8 -5.0 8.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.8 .. 7.0 6.4 .. -23.0 -8.8 27.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Singapore 0.4 .. 8.2 7.7 .. 15.7 -5.3 -6.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Taiwan (China) 1.4 .. 4.8 5.7 .. -11.9 -6.1 6.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Real merchandise imports b

High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.7 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.2 2.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States 23.8 8.2 5.7 1.3 -4.0 -2.1 -3.9 -3.6 -6.2 4.5 -7.3 -2.3 ..

Japan 6.7 5.4 4.0 -0.4 -0.7 1.5 2.2 -0.6 -5.8 3.0 0.8 -4.7 ..

Euro Area 37.1 .. 5.5 6.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United Kindgom 6.7 6.3 10.2 -4.4 -1.4 1.4 2.0 -2.0 -6.7 -0.7 -3.2 -2.0 ..

Other high income 11.7 5.5 9.2 11.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 4.1 6.6 10.1 10.4 .. 8.2 5.6 2.6 .. 11.9 -14.1 .. ..

Singapore 2.3 5.2 11.2 6.3 9.4 14.3 12.8 10.9 0.2 -8.2 2.9 -10.8 ..

Taiwan (China) 2.2 6.3 3.7 -0.2 -4.1 6.4 -3.8 -1.2 -17.5 -6.1 -1.6 -17.3 -24.8

Import Prices c

High-income countries 100.0 .. 5.8 6.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.2 7.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States 23.8 -0.1 4.9 4.2 11.6 14.1 19.1 17.5 -3.3 -5.9 -7.0 -4.2 ..

Japan 6.7 -1.6 6.8 7.2 21.7 19.2 26.0 34.0 8.4 -5.6 -6.1 -6.3 ..

Euro Area 37.1 .. 9.0 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United Kindgom 6.7 -1.3 3.1 11.0 7.2 11.9 14.9 12.5 -9.6 -9.2 -5.8 -9.6 ..

Other high income 11.7 -1.0 4.2 3.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 4.1 -1.2 1.3 -0.3 .. 1.7 3.8 4.2 .. -1.3 0.4 .. ..

Singapore 2.3 -0.3 6.6 3.6 11.5 13.9 19.4 21.4 -7.5 -7.3 -11.9 -6.9 ..

Taiwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 7.1 8.1 13.9 16.8 23.2 22.2 -5.4 -9.0 -7.9 -5.7 0.1

Real effective exchange rates d

Euro Area 33.5 1.6 0.9 4.1 4.6 7.5 8.6 5.5 -3.1 -4.3 -2.0 7.8 -2.0

United States 14.4 -2.2 -2.7 -4.7 -3.8 -9.8 -9.5 -5.8 10.7 7.9 3.6 -1.7 0.4

Japan 7.4 -1.4 -8.9 -6.6 9.8 4.2 6.0 3.6 25.2 11.9 6.5 3.6 0.4

United Kindgom 5.4 -1.7 -0.2 2.1 -12.0 -8.8 -10.0 -11.8 -17.7 -1.1 -6.1 -7.5 -0.1

Canada 3.5 0.0 3.2 0.8 -8.3 5.8 -3.2 -10.4 -23.4 -9.9 0.6 -3.7 0.7

Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -4.4 -2.6 -5.0 -8.4 -9.6 -11.2 -10.5 -2.3 3.8 5.2 -3.2 -1.6

Korea, Rep. 2.5 0.7 4.8 -2.0 -15.8 -8.6 -13.0 -12.7 -29.4 -12.7 -5.5 -2.0 3.1

Singapore 2.3 1.5 5.1 6.9 5.4 2.6 4.3 8.1 6.5 -1.2 -2.1 0.3 -0.3

Taiwan (China) 2.1 -1.9 0.1 -1.3 -4.1 -3.5 -2.3 -1.9 -8.9 -2.7 -3.5 -5.2 2.2

Switzerland 1.7 -1.0 -4.3 -4.9 2.0 1.1 2.0 0.0 5.0 5.1 0.7 -0.2 1.6

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ Real GDP aggregated using 1995 weights.b/ On a customs or BoP basis, as available. Weights are 1995 merchandise import: aggregate calculated as sum of components.c/ Aggregate prices are implicit prices of aggregate US dollar value divided by aggregate constant 1995 dollar volume.d/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.


Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 2009 Latest

1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan 18-Feb

Policy Rates

United States .. 3.44 4.96 5.02 1.93 3.16 2.09 1.96 0.52 0.39 0.17 0.16 0.23

Japan .. 0.33 0.24 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.55 0.50 0.42 0.30 0.30

Euro Area .. .. 2.76 3.84 3.89 4.00 4.00 4.23 3.34 3.43 2.73 2.32 2.00

United Kindgom .. 4.80 4.64 5.51 4.67 5.35 5.03 5.00 3.32 3.23 2.13 1.61 1.00

Ten year bond

United States .. 4.70 4.78 4.63 3.66 3.69 3.85 3.84 3.25 3.50 2.47 2.40 2.76

Japan .. 1.49 1.74 1.67 1.49 1.39 1.60 1.53 1.44 1.48 1.35 1.25 1.30

Euro Area .. .. 3.73 4.20 4.00 3.97 4.24 4.29 3.51 3.59 3.03 3.04 3.34

United Kindgom .. 4.77 4.48 5.01 4.52 4.50 4.80 4.70 4.07 4.15 3.59 3.52 3.61

Spreads (Basis points)b,c

Developing countries .. 399 198 197 406 295 281 337 710 711 758 694 670

East Asia and Pacific .. 247 180 161 355 257 253 303 608 616 626 587 541

China .. 82 64 71 166 140 139 157 229 223 230 199 178

Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Thailand .. .. 54 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia .. 129 84 87 201 131 135 161 377 428 396 353 357

Europe and Central Asia .. 286 149 158 370 237 237 296 709 705 786 689 655

Russian Federation .. 262 111 121 328 191 169 238 715 704 854 726 662

Turkey .. 404 223 214 383 292 312 336 593 592 592 510 504

Poland .. 99 59 61 159 108 104 131 293 325 310 312 302

Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean .. 522 227 221 438 323 304 367 759 767 805 744 732

Brazil .. 551 233 180 301 258 214 252 480 469 478 430 425

Mexico .. 206 137 126 254 190 162 213 452 457 461 423 431

Argentina .. 2920 343 320 858 483 557 696 1698 1782 1828 1578 1565

Colombia .. 370 194 161 305 251 192 237 540 550 536 503 478

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 338 476 585 546 505 486 804 783 926 871 791

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. .. 79 86 262 230 180 244 393 380 404 296 240

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan .. .. 199 283 1040 568 596 965 2031 2058 2135 2062 1997

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 390 266 288 452 402 338 318 749 779 819 695 658

South Africa .. 172 90 100 329 233 215 254 616 665 618 482 462

Nigeria .. .. 245 77 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gross inflows e

Developing countries .. .. 494 683 370 103 148 73 46 10 17 19 ..

East Asia and Pacific .. .. 111 145 67 23 26 12 7 1 3 4 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 179 252 155 36 63 34 22 5 5 6 ..

Latin America and Carribean .. .. 116 157 80 19 38 14 10 2 5 9 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 16 15 25 5 13 6 2 0 1 0 ..

South Asia .. .. 42 69 25 16 4 4 1 1 1 0 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 30 46 17 6 4 4 4 2 2 0 ..

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of the monthly figures.b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.e/In billions of US dollars.


Weightsb Average 2008 2008 2008 2009


Energy .. .. 220.9 244.8 342.0 331.1 417.8 406.0 213.0 266.3 207.2 165.3 170.4

Coal, Australia .. 15.8 187.0 250.4 484.2 434.3 528.2 620.2 354.2 411.4 351.4 299.6 304.8

Crude oil, average .. 22.2 227.7 251.9 343.6 337.6 428.5 409.8 198.4 257.5 191.2 146.4 155.4

Natural gas , Europe .. 18.7 219.5 221.7 347.5 281.5 321.4 378.9 408.1 412.9 409.8 401.7 360.0

Non-energy 100.00 .. 192.1 224.9 272.3 281.4 308.1 292.8 207.0 226.6 205.0 189.5 198.8

Agriculture 69.10 .. 150.4 180.6 229.7 236.6 259.8 243.7 178.9 189.3 177.6 169.7 182.7

Beverages 16.90 .. 145.4 169.9 210.0 210.7 221.4 226.8 181.2 186.0 173.7 184.0 199.7

Cocoa 3.90 4.4 175.7 215.5 284.5 273.5 305.2 312.0 247.4 251.0 226.8 264.3 289.7

Coffee, arabica 8.00 0.3 131.4 141.9 160.5 171.1 164.2 167.3 139.5 141.9 140.0 136.6 147.3

Coffee, robusta 2.80 2.4 163.1 209.1 254.2 270.9 266.8 268.2 210.9 214.3 219.2 199.2 199.8

Food 29.40 .. 147.0 184.7 247.4 257.2 286.3 260.5 185.7 197.2 183.8 176.0 190.4

Fats and oils 10.10 .. 137.9 209.0 277.3 310.2 327.7 288.9 182.4 195.7 179.9 171.6 191.5

Palm oil 2.30 3.5 154.2 251.5 305.7 372.6 386.2 299.1 165.0 175.7 157.3 162.1 172.1

Soybean meal 4.10 9.6 110.6 163.0 224.4 234.4 255.7 238.1 169.3 178.7 170.7 158.6 194.8

Soybeans 2.00 8.0 126.8 181.3 246.8 265.6 276.2 267.3 178.1 186.0 178.4 169.9 194.3

Grains 6.90 .. 149.8 189.0 281.7 274.6 335.2 298.5 218.6 234.8 214.4 206.6 225.0

Maize 1.70 8.1 137.6 184.9 252.0 248.9 292.5 276.4 190.2 206.8 185.0 178.8 195.2

Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 7.9 150.6 161.3 321.2 236.2 422.6 347.3 278.8 301.0 272.7 262.8 286.6

Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 10.0 168.3 223.7 285.8 360.9 303.7 278.5 200.0 208.1 198.8 193.0 209.6

Other food 12.40 .. 156.4 149.0 177.1 171.9 187.4 188.9 160.2 165.1 161.3 154.1 157.6

Bananas, US 2.30 5.6 159.7 159.4 199.1 197.2 216.9 182.7 199.7 190.4 212.9 195.8 193.4

Sugar, world 7.50 0.6 126.1 98.0 115.7 118.0 115.5 126.7 102.5 103.1 102.8 101.7 106.8

Raw materials 22.80 .. 161.4 175.8 196.8 199.5 215.2 211.5 161.2 172.0 164.3 147.1 155.4

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 0.9 97.3 107.1 120.9 129.0 127.9 129.2 97.5 105.5 93.0 93.9 97.0

Rubber, Singapore 4.80 13.8 315.9 343.3 392.6 412.9 461.5 452.0 243.8 290.1 256.8 184.6 227.8

Sawnwood, Malaysia 2.90 6.3 126.0 135.6 149.5 144.7 157.4 151.4 144.6 144.9 146.7 142.2 137.6

Fertilizers 2.70 .. 168.6 240.1 570.7 409.4 624.1 741.1 508.4 602.5 505.0 417.7 405.0

Triple superphosphate 0.90 18.0 146.4 246.2 657.3 519.0 752.6 804.4 553.1 700.8 664.4 294.1 254.2

Metals and minerals 28.20 .. 280.3 314.0 325.7 358.7 371.1 342.4 230.6 260.5 227.3 204.0 208.4

Aluminum 7.90 6.6 165.9 170.3 166.1 177.0 189.8 179.9 117.6 136.9 119.6 96.2 91.2

Copper 9.30 15.4 370.7 392.5 383.6 429.9 465.6 423.5 215.3 271.6 205.0 169.4 177.6

Gold .. 11.5 216.6 249.7 312.4 332.1 321.1 311.6 284.7 289.1 272.7 292.5 307.7

Nickel 2.20 16.4 280.8 431.0 244.4 335.2 297.3 219.5 125.5 140.5 123.9 112.1 130.9

Memo:

Crude Oil (US$) .. 22.2 64.3 71.1 97.0 95.3 121.0 115.7 56.0 72.7 54.0 41.3 43.9

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.




Export valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 16.6 22.6 19.3 20.8 43.3 22.2 15.0 -55.0 -3.5 -15.1 -7.9 ..

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 17.8 23.4 21.6 16.8 35.0 23.0 16.9 -46.3 1.9 -16.3 -6.0 ..

China 16.7 22.8 27.2 25.7 17.3 41.6 18.1 23.5 -41.2 7.0 -19.3 -5.8 8.4

Indonesia 4.2 10.8 17.7 13.2 19.9 59.9 14.4 -1.3 -56.6 -11.1 -2.9 -18.8 ..

Thailand 4.6 12.6 16.9 17.2 16.9 19.7 32.6 1.1 -56.3 -3.0 -21.1 7.9 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 18.9 21.5 23.3 26.3 55.7 25.0 9.5 -69.2 -11.0 -17.2 -11.9 ..


Turkey 1.8 17.2 16.4 25.4 23.1 128.7 -10.3 21.4 -76.9 -22.6 -6.7 -22.3 ..

Poland 2.1 .. 22.5 25.9 .. 54.6 35.2 -10.9 .. -14.7 -16.2 .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 10.9 19.7 13.4 12.3 10.4 21.0 9.8 -51.3 -5.8 -8.9 -9.1 ..

Brazil 3.7 14.5 16.3 16.6 23.2 1.9 112.2 13.7 -47.3 -9.4 -10.3 -6.6 -20.3

Mexico 11.2 9.5 16.7 8.8 7.3 16.2 4.6 -0.9 -50.6 -5.1 -6.5 -6.9 ..

Argentina 1.8 10.3 15.0 20.1 26.5 34.5 -18.8 130.1 -69.0 -14.5 -12.5 -19.6 ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. 30.4 6.4 .. 128.2 43.2 23.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 .. 23.6 0.9 .. 105.6 15.5 24.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 .. 32.5 18.2 .. 125.0 193.7 -24.6 .. -5.8 -21.7 .. ..

South Asia 4.3 .. 26.4 19.6 .. 37.1 14.8 11.7 .. -4.2 -4.5 .. ..

India 2.8 18.1 31.8 23.8 19.2 34.8 9.4 15.8 -47.2 -3.8 -5.3 1.9 ..

Pakistan 0.6 .. 5.2 2.4 .. 56.8 39.3 -8.5 .. -3.5 -2.4 .. ..

Bangladesh 0.4 .. 24.2 7.7 .. 44.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 20.6 16.3 .. 110.3 -2.7 38.2 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 2.0 12.0 12.2 19.3 19.3 38.7 19.0 29.2 -61.6 0.6 -28.6 -14.9 ..

Nigeria 1.4 .. 24.4 10.2 .. 45.1 32.5 45.1 .. .. .. .. ..

Export prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 .. 7.4 4.4 .. 26.9 11.9 4.3 .. -2.7 .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 .. 3.6 2.6 .. 5.6 12.1 2.8 .. -2.2 0.8 .. ..

China 16.7 .. 2.8 1.7 .. -2.1 7.3 4.2 .. -1.8 1.4 .. ..

Indonesia 4.2 7.3 15.7 9.8 20.7 22.1 61.6 16.4 -49.1 1.4 -7.5 -28.7 ..

Thailand 4.6 5.7 3.7 6.4 11.4 7.6 44.9 5.8 -23.7 -4.3 -0.9 -3.8 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 .. 9.2 9.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 7.1 .. 16.2 20.2 .. 39.9 45.9 50.0 .. -4.1 -8.8 .. ..

Turkey 1.8 3.6 3.5 12.5 15.7 24.5 29.2 14.3 -54.3 -9.9 -9.3 -0.5 ..

Poland 2.1 .. 6.4 0.4 .. 3.0 -6.1 -14.5 .. 2.3 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 .. 12.0 7.5 .. 21.8 35.5 19.4 .. -8.3 .. .. ..

Brazil 3.7 5.4 12.5 10.5 26.3 26.2 47.1 56.8 -35.2 -1.9 -8.3 -8.1 ..

Mexico 11.2 5.8 7.5 5.1 9.9 13.5 36.8 4.4 -64.3 -11.0 -10.2 -4.5 ..

Argentina 1.8 .. 8.6 11.4 .. 56.2 19.9 9.9 .. -16.2 .. .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 .. 25.8 3.7 .. 96.7 47.4 -27.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 .. -7.7 -6.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 .. -1.6 7.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 4.3 .. 12.2 8.1 .. 14.0 8.5 5.8 .. 0.5 0.3 .. ..

India 2.8 4.1 3.7 9.3 9.5 11.4 8.2 3.8 -1.8 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7

Pakistan 0.6 .. 2.6 3.3 .. 23.9 6.0 3.8 .. 1.5 4.3 .. ..

Bangladesh 0.4 .. 68.1 -1.2 .. 35.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 2.0 .. 8.4 7.5 .. 40.3 -4.6 8.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Nigeria 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis./b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.




Import valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. 45.8 22.9 19.1 -56.3 -2.9 -17.4 -6.6 ..

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 18.7 16.8 18.6 21.2 57.3 4.7 14.1 -57.5 2.6 -22.4 -7.5 ..

China 19.3 23.2 19.9 20.8 18.6 52.3 0.2 15.4 -59.1 6.7 -28.1 -5.7 -16.8

Indonesia 2.1 16.7 5.8 22.0 72.0 270.0 50.1 -1.1 -46.6 1.6 -15.2 -9.0 ..

Thailand 4.2 15.5 9.0 8.7 27.6 57.3 -4.7 65.9 -50.0 -4.2 -13.0 -7.4 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. 44.3 33.2 12.9 .. -9.3 -17.8 .. ..


Turkey 3.2 16.0 19.5 21.8 18.7 69.4 1.3 11.7 -80.2 -16.3 -19.4 -14.2 ..

Poland 3.6 .. 23.7 29.9 .. 67.2 28.0 -3.0 .. -11.1 -14.0 .. ..


Brazil 3.2 11.6 24.1 32.0 43.6 43.4 85.0 40.8 -45.3 -5.5 -18.9 2.1 -18.5

Mexico 11.6 9.4 15.4 10.1 9.5 32.4 -0.3 14.5 -44.5 -4.7 -5.0 -7.7 ..

Argentina 0.6 6.2 19.0 30.9 28.4 36.2 52.2 4.4 -53.3 -5.9 -15.0 -3.4 ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. 8.2 23.3 .. 25.1 68.5 36.3 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 18.9 36.0 .. 6.5 25.9 22.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 .. 5.6 20.9 .. 26.1 34.0 10.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 .. 3.9 31.4 .. 5.9 528.1 52.4 .. 3.5 -5.3 .. ..

South Asia 5.5 .. 20.7 23.5 .. 60.0 46.9 42.7 .. -4.1 -6.2 .. ..

India 3.7 21.2 21.9 27.8 32.1 45.3 54.2 54.1 -54.6 -3.6 -3.7 -4.7 ..

Pakistan 0.7 .. 17.5 9.2 .. 151.0 13.9 -5.3 .. -9.4 -22.4 .. ..

Bangladesh 0.5 .. 15.5 15.4 .. 87.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 21.9 21.8 .. 28.8 16.4 35.5 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 13.7 23.6 16.3 19.0 40.1 1.3 37.7 -53.3 -8.9 -14.5 -2.2 ..

Nigeria 0.5 .. 21.7 31.0 .. 62.2 12.8 65.5 .. .. .. .. ..

Import prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 19.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Indonesia 2.1 9.4 15.7 15.9 21.4 21.3 73.3 4.3 -58.0 -4.6 -5.6 -24.3 ..

Thailand 4.2 4.0 4.9 6.0 13.6 10.3 44.4 2.2 -29.9 -4.0 -1.1 -4.8 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 3.9 3.3 12.0 11.7 13.7 16.2 13.9 9.8 4.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2

Turkey 3.2 5.2 10.1 7.9 20.3 28.2 42.4 14.7 -48.3 -5.4 -8.9 -4.3 ..

Poland 3.6 .. 6.9 -1.8 .. -2.9 1.3 -7.0 .. -0.7 .. .. ..


Brazil 3.2 5.6 6.9 8.2 22.0 30.6 43.1 27.5 -30.5 -4.2 -3.5 -6.3 ..

Mexico 11.6 3.3 4.5 5.4 8.5 12.2 16.1 12.6 -17.2 -2.3 -2.2 -2.0 ..

Argentina 0.6 2.0 2.3 7.3 12.1 12.3 44.3 15.7 -27.8 -2.9 -5.4 -5.8 ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 2.7 7.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 .. 3.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 .. -3.4 13.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 5.5 .. 0.8 5.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India 3.7 .. -10.4 6.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan 0.7 .. 10.2 10.4 .. 53.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Bangladesh 0.5 .. 93.0 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 3.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 .. 3.7 4.3 .. 17.9 11.4 14.0 .. .. .. .. ..

Nigeria 0.5 .. 2.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis./b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.


US$ bn. % GDP 2008 2008 2008 2009

2008 2008 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec Jan

World 0.0 0.0 -203 -196 -316 -247 -253 -474 -291 -409 -330 -133 ..

High-income countries a -374.5 -0.9 -446 -409 -466 -414 -421 -601 -429 -503 -512 -273 ..

Industrial countries -449.8 -1.1 -636 -558 -663 -634 -631 -787 -597 -696 -660 -437 ..

United States -661.9 -4.7 -817 -794 -800 -825 -851 -843 -680 -817 -620 -604 ..

Japan 183.0 3.7 67 93 21 83 46 -14 -30 -25 -46 -18 ..

Euro Area -9.3 -0.1 -14 42 -38 0 -25 -109 -19 -34 -75 51 ..

United Kindgom -73.2 -2.7 -139 -178 -177 -185 -184 -186 -155 -164 -164 -136 ..

Other high income 75.3 4.0 190 148 198 220 210 187 176 211 158 158 ..

Hong Kong (China) 21.0 9.6 -18 -23 -26 -22 -30 -30 -21 -35 -20 -9 ..

Singapore 29.9 17.4 33 36 19 27 22 18 8 10 8 5 ..

Taiwan (China) 24.4 5.8 20 26 15 18 23 4 16 23 12 12 46

Developing countries 0.0 0.0 251 224 165 182 184 144 151 106 208 138 ..

East Asia and Pacific 400.0 8.0 239 334 327 238 326 350 392 357 411 407 ..

China 360.0 9.5 174 264 295 220 278 314 368 350 389 365 605

Indonesia 3.6 0.7 40 39 9 17 9 9 1 -5 11 -2 ..

Thailand 0.6 0.2 1 12 -1 1 16 -7 -11 -10 -23 0 ..

Malaysia 33.3 16.3 29 30 45 37 55 51 40 32 36 50 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. -5 -45 .. -3 -26 -39 .. -56 -39 .. ..

Russian Federation 103.4 6.4 143 135 184 217 201 200 120 147 123 90 ..

Turkey -46.9 -8.3 -54 -63 -69 -74 -78 -77 -48 -65 -37 -41 ..

Poland -26.1 -4.8 -16 -25 .. -36 -36 -40 .. -38 -36 .. ..

Czech Republic -6.1 -2.9 1 4 4 5 5 3 3 -1 4 5 ..

Latin America and Caribbean -18.4 -0.5 34 6 -59 -33 -47 -68 -90 -100 -67 -104 ..

Brazil -29.4 -1.9 46 40 24 22 33 24 19 14 29 13 8

Mexico -15.3 -1.6 -6 -10 -17 -13 -9 -21 -25 -25 -28 -24 ..

Argentina 7.0 2.4 12 11 13 16 6 21 11 14 14 3 ..

Colombia -5.5 -2.9 -2 -3 .. 0 0 -2 .. -4 .. .. ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 45 16 .. 65 58 53 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 143.0 29.3 125 104 .. 163 166 176 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 1.2 0.7 -7 -11 .. -9 -21 -29 .. -34 -36 .. ..

Algeria 0.0 0.0 29 23 .. 37 34 32 .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. -75 -98 .. -129 -157 -186 .. -158 -145 .. ..

India .. .. -53 -73 -114 -89 -115 -142 -111 -117 -115 -100 ..

Pakistan -15.7 -9.9 -13 -15 .. -25 -25 -25 .. -23 -14 .. ..

Bangladesh .. .. -3 -4 .. -5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. -3 -3 .. -6 -5 -6 .. -7 -6 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 21 14 .. 62 49 55 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa -21.3 -8.0 -10 -10 -11 -12 -8 -11 -12 -1 -14 -22 ..

Nigeria 18.9 9.9 24 20 .. 27 31 32 .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 203.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted

CAB


Weights Average

Levelb2008 2008 2008 2009 Latest


World 100.0 94.7 0.4 5.7 4.4 9.3 10.7 6.7 -7.4 -4.6 -0.1 -0.9 -1.9

High-income countries 78.3 .. 0.0 6.1 4.7 10.2 11.8 6.8 -8.2 -4.2 1.2 -0.4 -1.7

Industrial countries 70.6 .. 0.1 7.0 5.0 11.4 12.9 7.2 -9.3 -4.6 1.4 -0.4 -1.8

United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 -1.4 4.1 3.9 5.5 7.6 5.8 -2.9 -2.6 -2.1 1.8 -1.0

Japan 7.4 114.3 -6.4 -1.5 12.4 9.5 16.1 11.7 12.6 6.4 3.8 7.1 -0.4

Euro Area 29.5 .. 1.0 9.1 6.9 14.3 15.8 9.1 -9.1 -4.0 6.0 -1.8 -2.7

United Kindgom 5.6 0.6 -0.6 9.5 -5.3 1.3 0.5 -2.1 -18.5 -6.0 -9.1 -5.9 0.5

Other high income 7.7 101.6 -0.4 0.5 2.7 1.9 4.3 4.1 0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.8

Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 0.2 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0

Singapore 2.3 1.7 3.8 5.6 7.2 7.5 10.8 10.8 0.3 -3.3 -2.0 1.1 -1.0

Taiwan (China) 2.1 32.9 -1.6 -0.8 4.4 1.9 8.6 7.3 0.1 -2.2 -1.3 -0.6 -1.5

Developing countries 21.7 112.8 1.5 4.6 3.8 6.7 7.7 6.4 -5.0 -6.0 -3.6 -2.3 -2.4

East Asia and Pacific 7.5 101.4 3.6 5.8 4.7 6.6 7.6 5.3 -0.4 -2.0 -3.6 1.6 -1.1

China 2.7 8.1 2.7 4.6 9.3 7.3 9.9 10.7 9.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0

Indonesia 1.1 9077.8 4.7 1.2 -4.4 -2.4 -2.3 -0.4 -11.6 -7.2 -14.7 6.5 -5.2

Thailand 1.3 39.3 4.6 10.4 4.5 8.1 9.9 1.9 -1.4 -0.4 -1.9 0.4 -0.3

Malaysia 1.4 3.7 2.8 6.7 4.2 7.5 8.0 5.4 -3.5 -2.4 -2.5 1.4 -1.1

Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.0 1.5 8.3 8.1 10.2 13.5 14.0 -3.7 -6.6 -5.0 -9.6 -7.7

Russian Federation 1.5 27.8 3.0 6.5 4.8 7.5 9.5 8.4 -5.4 -4.1 -3.5 -14.2 -10.8

Turkey .. 1.2 -5.2 7.4 4.2 20.0 8.2 8.2 -15.5 -16.4 -7.1 -0.6 -2.0

Poland 0.5 3.6 2.8 11.8 18.4 20.3 28.6 30.4 -1.7 -12.7 -7.8 -8.5 -9.7

Czech Republic 0.5 28.3 4.1 11.4 21.2 20.9 30.1 33.3 3.4 -8.2 -6.0 -3.6 -6.3

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 135.1 1.8 2.7 3.1 5.9 7.6 7.6 -7.5 -10.7 -3.1 -2.4 -1.4

Brazil 1.1 2.3 13.0 10.6 10.9 20.7 20.7 19.9 -12.3 -17.2 -4.1 -2.1 1.5

Mexico 1.7 10.4 0.6 -0.5 0.1 0.7 3.9 6.5 -9.3 -15.2 -4.5 -6.0 -3.5

Argentina 0.4 2.4 -4.9 -1.2 -1.0 -2.1 -2.2 2.7 -2.4 -4.4 -2.5 -4.5 -0.8

Colombia 0.3 2282.0 -1.3 12.6 7.8 13.9 16.9 11.5 -7.9 -9.7 -1.7 3.0 -8.9

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 152.6 -0.7 1.7 2.9 3.0 5.2 4.8 -1.3 -2.2 -1.9 -0.6 0.0

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran 0.4 6515.1 -2.4 -1.2 -1.2 -1.0 1.7 -0.3 -5.0 -2.1 0.3 -0.5 3.0

Egypt 0.3 5.0 1.4 1.4 3.9 3.7 5.8 5.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.5

Algeria 0.3 72.7 0.5 4.6 8.3 6.6 9.3 11.9 5.8 -2.1 -8.6 -4.8 0.2

South Asia 1.2 105.4 -3.1 4.7 -3.5 7.9 1.5 -5.8 -15.2 -4.9 -0.6 0.0 0.1

India 0.8 44.9 -3.1 8.6 -2.2 12.3 3.6 -5.1 -16.7 -6.4 -0.7 0.2 0.3

Pakistan 0.2 58.9 -1.2 -0.9 -11.9 -0.6 -5.6 -14.7 -23.3 -3.7 0.4 1.0 -0.1

Bangladesh 0.1 60.2 -7.0 -0.4 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1

Sri Lanka 0.1 95.0 -2.6 -6.4 2.2 -0.1 1.9 3.6 3.4 -0.2 -1.8 -3.4 -0.2

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 114.9 -3.5 -0.4 -3.0 4.4 1.0 0.1 -14.9 -10.1 -5.4 -1.8 -0.7

South Africa 0.6 7.4 -6.1 -5.0 -11.7 -0.5 -8.2 -7.9 -26.3 -17.3 -3.5 2.0 0.0

Nigeria 0.3 118.5 2.2 1.6 6.2 8.7 8.5 7.8 0.2 -0.2 -11.8 -8.8 -1.2

Memo:

OECD 73.7 .. 0.1 6.9 5.1 11.2 12.9 7.6 -9.1 -5.1 1.1 -0.7 -2.0

Developing excl. China 19.0 115.2 1.3 4.6 3.0 6.7 7.4 5.8 -6.8 -6.8 -4.1 -2.7 -2.7

Developing oil exporters 2.8 159.0 1.1 1.0 -0.6 0.4 1.0 1.8 -5.2 -3.6 -8.8 0.9 -2.0

Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 107.2 1.5 5.2 4.4 7.7 8.7 7.2 -4.9 -6.3 -2.8 -2.8 -2.5

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/)

a/ An increase in the USD per LCU implies appreciation of the local currency. The aggregates computed by using trade weights and rebased to year 2000=100 (bilateral total trade i.e. imports plus exports in 1995 constant USD).Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by weight) of countries reported data in that time period.b/ Average levels are LCU vis-a-vis the USD




World .. 4.6 3.1 3.0 4.6 4.3 4.8 5.8 3.7 5.1 3.6 2.7 ..

High-income countries .. 3.3 2.3 2.1 3.3 3.2 3.6 4.3 2.1 3.3 1.9 1.1 ..

Industrial countries 3.6 3.2 2.3 2.1 3.2 3.2 3.5 4.2 2.0 3.3 1.8 1.0 ..

United States 3.7 3.8 3.2 2.9 3.8 4.1 4.4 5.3 1.6 3.7 1.1 0.1 ..

Japan 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.1 1.4 1.0 1.4 2.2 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.4 ..

Euro Area 2.6 3.3 2.2 2.1 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.8 2.3 3.1 2.1 1.6 ..

United Kindgom 4.3 3.6 2.3 2.3 3.6 2.4 3.4 4.8 3.9 4.5 4.1 3.1 ..

Other high income .. 5.8 1.6 2.4 5.8 5.4 6.7 6.8 4.9 5.3 5.2 4.3 ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.8 4.3 2.0 2.0 4.3 4.6 5.7 4.6 2.3 1.8 3.1 2.0 ..

Singapore 6.4 6.5 1.0 2.1 6.5 6.6 7.5 6.6 5.4 6.4 5.5 4.3 ..

Taiwan (China) 5.1 3.5 0.6 1.8 3.5 3.6 4.2 4.5 1.9 2.4 1.9 1.3 1.6

Developing countries 9.8 9.3 6.1 6.2 9.3 8.0 9.1 11.4 9.4 11.4 9.7 8.2 ..

East Asia and Pacific 9.7 7.5 5.4 5.2 7.5 7.0 9.7 11.3 8.7 11.2 9.2 7.7 4.0

China 3.2 5.8 1.5 4.8 5.8 8.0 7.8 5.3 2.5 4.0 2.4 1.2 1.0

Indonesia 13.3 10.2 13.1 5.8 10.2 7.0 10.1 12.0 11.5 11.8 11.7 11.1 9.2

Thailand 4.0 5.5 4.6 2.2 5.5 5.0 7.5 7.3 2.1 3.9 2.2 0.4 -0.4

Malaysia 8.0 5.4 3.6 2.0 5.4 2.6 4.9 8.4 5.9 7.6 5.7 4.4 ..

Europe and Central Asia 11.0 10.4 5.6 8.0 10.4 10.6 11.4 11.3 8.3 10.7 8.7 7.0 ..

Russian Federation 14.0 14.1 9.7 9.0 14.1 12.9 14.9 14.9 13.7 14.2 13.8 13.3 ..

Turkey 11.6 10.4 9.6 8.8 10.4 8.8 10.3 11.7 10.9 12.0 10.8 10.1 9.5

Poland 4.0 4.3 1.1 2.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.8 3.8 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.2

Czech Republic 4.8 6.3 2.5 2.9 6.3 7.4 6.7 6.6 4.5 5.5 4.4 3.6 2.2

Latin America and Caribbean 9.2 8.7 5.8 6.2 8.7 8.4 9.1 9.9 9.1 10.0 9.6 7.7 6.4

Brazil 6.3 5.7 4.2 3.6 5.7 4.6 5.6 6.3 6.2 6.4 6.4 5.9 5.8

Mexico 5.6 5.1 3.6 4.0 5.1 3.9 4.9 5.5 6.2 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.3

Argentina 7.9 8.6 10.9 8.8 8.6 8.5 9.1 8.9 7.8 8.4 7.9 7.2 6.8

Colombia 8.3 7.0 4.3 5.5 7.0 6.1 6.4 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.7 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 5.4 4.7 .. 8.4 14.1 13.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 9.7 9.7 2.1 3.9 9.7 7.4 10.1 10.9 10.2 10.3 10.9 9.5 ..

Iran .. .. 11.6 16.8 .. 19.7 24.0 26.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 24.4 18.3 7.6 9.5 18.3 12.3 18.8 22.5 19.6 20.2 20.3 18.3 14.4

Algeria 4.3 0.1 2.3 3.6 .. 4.3 6.1 2.1 .. 4.2 4.1 .. ..

South Asia 11.1 15.5 7.7 7.6 15.5 11.1 8.4 12.1 13.6 13.5 13.4 12.0 ..

India 12.7 8.3 6.2 6.4 8.3 6.3 7.8 9.0 10.2 10.4 10.4 9.7 ..

Pakistan 29.6 .. 7.9 7.6 .. 12.4 19.3 24.5 .. 25.0 24.7 .. ..

Bangladesh 9.3 .. 6.8 8.7 .. 11.1 8.4 10.3 .. 10.2 7.3 .. ..

Sri Lanka 19.5 22.6 10.0 15.8 22.6 22.1 26.5 25.2 16.9 20.3 16.3 14.4 10.7

Sub-Saharan Africa 9.6 .. 6.0 6.6 .. 7.7 8.7 11.8 .. 12.1 10.3 .. ..

South Africa 13.0 11.5 4.6 7.1 11.5 9.9 11.6 13.4 11.1 12.1 11.8 9.5 ..

Nigeria 18.9 .. 8.5 5.5 .. 7.7 8.6 12.8 .. 13.0 14.7 .. ..

Memo:

OECD 3.7 3.3 2.4 2.2 3.3 3.2 3.6 4.3 2.2 3.4 2.0 1.2 ..


Developing oil exporters 11.2 .. 10.0 5.7 .. 8.8 11.3 13.2 .. 12.4 13.2 .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 9.6 8.7 6.0 6.2 8.7 8.0 9.1 11.2 9.3 11.2 9.6 8.0 ..


Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ Developing country aggregates computed using median. Industrial aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. World total is GDP weighted average of developing and high income total. Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by GDP) of countries reported data in that time period.

For developing countries, aggregate decadal growth rates are median of the decadal growth rates of the components. For high-income countries, aggregate decadal growth rate is GDP weighted sum of decadal growth rates of components.


Weights 2008 2008 2008 2009 Latest1995 2006 2007 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan 18-Feb

World 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High-income countriesb 82.8 3.83 4.13 2.32 3.12 2.48 2.41 1.25 1.17 0.80 0.64 0.59

Industrial countries 80.6 3.84 4.15 2.32 3.14 2.49 2.41 1.25 1.16 0.80 0.65 0.60

United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 4.96 5.02 1.93 3.16 2.09 1.96 0.52 0.39 0.17 0.16 0.23

Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.24 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.55 0.50 0.42 0.30 0.30

Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 2.76 3.84 3.89 4.00 4.00 4.23 3.34 3.43 2.73 2.32 2.00

United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 4.64 5.51 4.67 5.35 5.03 5.00 3.32 3.23 2.13 1.61 1.00

Other high income 2.2 3.27 3.37 2.16 2.60 2.37 2.36 1.32 1.38 0.79 0.43 ..

Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 6.50 6.52 3.13 4.25 3.58 3.50 1.17 1.50 0.50 0.50 ..

Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 3.40 2.68 1.15 1.47 1.09 1.03 1.01 0.84 0.75 0.61 0.44

Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.56 1.96 1.93 2.08 2.10 2.14 1.40 1.41 0.86 0.27 0.14

Developing countries 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 5.86 6.71 7.18 7.47 7.47 7.43 6.34 6.55 5.50 5.31 5.31

Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18

Thailand (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 3.39 3.50 3.48 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.41 3.48 3.25 3.00 2.49

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 11.64 10.27 10.87 10.16 10.48 10.97 11.88 11.65 13.00 13.00 13.00

Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 16.76 18.37 17.05 16.39 16.48 17.80 17.55 17.80 16.86 14.77 13.61

Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 4.09 4.48 5.88 5.40 5.95 6.10 6.05 6.16 5.71 5.01 4.25

Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 2.17 2.86 3.49 3.65 3.75 3.60 2.98 2.90 2.53 2.25 1.75

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 15.33 12.05 12.45 11.25 11.81 12.97 13.75 13.75 13.75 13.43 12.75

Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 7.30 7.36 7.88 7.52 7.64 8.29 8.09 7.95 8.18 7.74 7.29

Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 6.45 8.09 11.43 8.41 10.42 11.46 15.42 17.03 15.65 14.29 11.88

Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 6.27 7.94 9.68 9.24 9.67 9.80 10.02 10.05 10.19 9.73 9.43

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 5.02 4.79 .. 2.52 2.14 3.10 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran (IMF discount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 9.00 9.00 .. 9.00 9.33 10.83 .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. ..

India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 5.97 7.04 7.90 7.50 7.50 7.59 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00

Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 8.58 9.09 10.63 9.53 10.16 11.70 11.12 10.90 10.37 11.19 12.25

Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 .. 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 9.14 10.43 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.25

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. ..

South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 7.63 9.61 11.61 11.00 11.53 12.00 11.90 12.00 11.70 11.50 10.50

Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 13.25 9.13 .. 9.50 10.08 10.08 .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights.


Weights Average 2008 2008 2008 Latest


World .. 91 106 124 102 115 112 93 72 69 72 65 66

High-income countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States .. 89 100 112 92 100 98 89 68 67 68 63 63

Japan .. 84 107 109 77 79 86 71 56 55 56 52 50

Euro Area .. 99 121 148 117 137 129 103 80 76 80 70 71

United Kindgom .. 88 98 106 88 94 92 81 73 71 73 69 69

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) .. .. 127 152 125 142 136 113 81 82 81 78 75

Singapore .. .. 113 150 121 126 124 107 121 125 121 124 120

Taiwan (China) .. 72 80 94 85 100 88 62 51 .. .. .. ..

Developing countriesa,b .. 156 203 275 262 282 268 219 160 .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacificc .. 123 146 219 192 216 187 144 108 .. .. .. ..

China .. 118 109 240 215 238 202 157 118 .. .. .. ..

Indonesia .. 207 268 397 415 462 442 322 188 .. .. .. ..

Thailand .. 188 231 282 274 325 284 215 143 .. .. .. ..

Malaysia .. 116 120 183 169 182 168 135 110 .. .. .. ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 398 495 461 508 535 333 216 .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation .. 525 878 1046 996 1116 1218 662 428 .. .. .. ..

Turkey .. 87 119 166 139 130 126 124 81 .. .. .. ..

Poland .. 168 228 319 272 313 278 226 148 .. .. .. ..

Czech Republic .. 354 484 674 789 853 928 639 459 .. .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean .. 203 263 394 426 447 487 333 228 .. .. .. ..

Brazil .. 199 254 398 471 474 558 349 237 .. .. .. ..

Mexico .. 193 260 360 337 376 360 290 197 .. .. .. ..

Argentina .. 104 150 190 177 189 234 138 81 .. .. .. ..

Colombia .. 352 589 685 653 685 686 615 522 478 522 490 479

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 332 366 384 387 402 397 286 .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia .. .. 527 339 340 389 385 309 197 181 197 197 ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. 213 328 412 484 573 512 359 243 .. .. .. ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. 198 266 411 375 413 327 283 199 .. .. .. ..

Pakistan .. 241 370 452 346 528 375 231 134 228 134 123 132

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. 229 312 358 283 330 314 261 171 198 171 198 188

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa .. 216 307 378 322 326 330 275 201 .. .. .. ..

Nigeria .. 409 450 807 868 1096 947 801 442 540 442 275 313

Memo:

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&Pc/ East Asia Pacific including South AsiaSource: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Excahnge Composite Index;All Others are IFC/S&P Indices


GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance

2008 2009 2010 2009 2010

Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD

World 2.2 -0.3 -1.4 -0.4 2.5 1.3 1.4 -25 .. .. -16 .. ..

High-income countries 1.1 -1.5 -2.5 -0.5 1.6 0.3 1.4 -146 .. .. -183 .. ..

Industrial countries 1.1 -1.5 -2.5 -0.5 1.6 0.3 1.4 -216 .. .. -254 .. ..

United States 1.2 -1.8 -2.0 -0.9 2.3 0.6 1.6 -419 -484 -562 -492 -457 -537

Japan 0.4 -1.7 -3.8 -0.2 1.1 -0.1 0.6 200 192 231 212 111 211

Euro Area 1.1 -1.4 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 0.1 1.2 -19 .. -8 -12 .. -4

United Kindgom 0.8 -2.2 -3.2 -1.1 0.6 -1.1 0.9 -48 -29 -35 -44 -22 -50

Other high income 2.6 -0.8 -3.6 .. 3.0 1.2 .. 70 .. .. 71 .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 2.9 -1.3 -4.7 .. 2.6 0.2 .. 20 .. .. 21 .. ..

Singapore 2.0 -2.4 -7.2 .. 3.5 1.8 .. 26 .. .. 26 .. ..

Taiwan (China) 2.1 -1.1 -3.5 .. 3.1 1.1 .. 25 .. .. 25 .. ..

Developing countries 6.2 3.6 2.3 .. 5.0 4.3 .. 120.8 .. .. 166.8 .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 8.4 6.4 4.8 .. 7.6 6.3 .. 371.8 .. .. 368.7 .. ..

China 9.3 7.4 6.0 .. 8.4 7.3 .. 338.6 0.3 437.2 332.1 0.3 472.4

Indonesia 6.1 4.0 1.9 .. 5.0 2.2 .. 3.2 .. .. 4.3 .. ..

Thailand 4.3 1.1 -1.8 .. 3.7 2.2 .. 2.5 .. .. 4.2 .. ..

Malaysia 5.3 1.4 -0.3 .. 4.3 2.8 .. 25.1 .. .. 25.5 .. ....

Europe and Central Asia 4.5 0.4 0.0 .. 3.0 2.8 .. -117.3 .. .. -97.4 .. ..

Russian Federation 6.7 1.1 1.0 .. 3.5 4.0 .. -9.1 .. .. 10.8 .. ..

Turkey 1.6 -0.5 -1.5 1.6 3.2 1.7 4.2 -23.4 .. -40.0 -29.1 .. -41.7

Poland 5.1 1.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.6 3.5 -23.5 .. -29.3 -26.6 .. -31.3

Czech Republic 4.2 0.3 -1.4 2.5 2.3 1.9 4.4 -6.1 .. -6.0 -6.1 .. -7.1

Latin America and Caribbean 4.5 0.9 -0.4 .. 2.8 1.8 .. -70.2 .. .. -68.2 .. ..

Brazil 5.5 1.7 1.6 .. 3.3 3.2 .. -24.6 .. .. -31.0 .. ..

Mexico 1.7 -0.7 -1.8 0.4 2.2 1.4 1.8 -22.9 .. -29.5 -24.0 .. -31.5

Argentina 6.3 0.5 -2.7 .. 2.3 1.7 .. 1.5 .. .. 1.3 .. ..

Colombia 3.5 2.4 -0.5 .. 3.3 1.5 .. -7.1 .. .. -6.8 .. ....

Middle East and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.5 2.1 0.4 .. 3.9 3.3 .. 5.1 .. .. 23.1 .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 6.9 4.8 4.9 .. 4.3 4.5 .. -3.5 .. .. -4.2 .. ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ....

South Asia 6.4 6.2 4.6 .. 5.4 6.0 .. -48.9 .. .. -39.8 .. ..

India 6.9 6.7 5.0 .. 5.6 6.6 .. -33.9 .. .. -24.0 -0.1 ..

Pakistan 3.1 3.1 1.2 .. 4.2 3.1 .. -15.0 .. .. -15.8 .. ..

Bangladesh 5.4 4.9 5.5 .. 5.5 3.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 5.7 .. 3.2 .. .. 5.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ....

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 3.4 2.0 1.0 .. 3.7 3.1 .. -20.2 .. .. -21.2 .. ..

Nigeria 6.1 5.6 3.5 .. 6.4 4.8 .. 3.9 .. .. 5.8 .. ....

Memo: ..

OECD 1.1 -1.4 -2.4 -0.4 1.6 0.3 1.4 -303 .. .. -349 .. ..

Developing excl. China 4.9 2.0 0.8 .. 3.6 3.0 .. -217.9 .. .. -165.4 .. ..

Developing oil exporters 5.7 2.7 0.4 .. 3.8 1.2 .. 14.8 .. .. 43.1 .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 6.2 3.7 2.5 .. 5.1 4.6 .. 105.9 .. .. 123.6 .. ..


Table A.12 GDP and current account forecasts(annual percent change; billions of US dollars)

Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD.Regional Aggregates:Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VENEurope and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKREast Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THAMiddle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEMSouth Asia: BGD,IND,PAKSub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWEOther Aggregates:OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USAIndustrial Countries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USAOther High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVNDeveloping Oil Exporters: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN

the external environment for developing...

Documents