the external environment for developing...

June 16, 2009

This monthly brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Andrew

Burns, and comprising Andrew Burns & Nadia Islam Spivak (G-3 countries, overall edits), Annette de Kleine (trade),

Betty Dow and Shane Streifel (primary commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina Savescu (production) and

Gauresh Rajadhyaksha (high-frequency data and Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally

cleared by the World Bank Group.

The External Environment for Developing Countries

June 2009

Overview

Signs of stabilization persist amidst continued weakness. High-frequency data confirm that

the steep decline in economic activity during October 2008 through March 2009 has eased. Industrial

production in developing countries outside of China increased modestly in recent months and almost

stopped declining in high-income countries. For the United States, data continue to suggest a

stabilization of activity but are mixed. An end to de-stocking and the coming on-stream of stimulus

measures support expectations of continued but muted recovery in coming months. For Europe data

are less positive. Leading indicators still point to further declines in output in Germany and an apparent

involuntary accumulation of inventories in the fourth quarter of 2008 and continued increases in the first

quarter of this year suggests less cope for a technical bounce back than in the United States.

A partial reversal of the capital outflows from developing countries in recent months

reflects increased confidence and appetite for risk. Risk premia on developing-country

sovereign debt fell to early September levels, equity markets have gained substantial ground and

sovereign debt issuance has rebounded – all factors that suggest the most acute phase of the credit

crunch for developing countries may have passed. Nevertheless, capital flows are only ½ of their year-

earlier levels and virtually all of bond issuance has gone to public-sector borrowers. Cross-border bank

lending to developing countries and IPO issuance remain depressed. Partly as a result, but also due

concerns about debt sustainability and future inflation, yields on U.S. treasuries have picked up.

Modest rises in oil prices should help prevent a return to last year’s very high prices.

The recent rise in oil prices is helping to restore the profitability of many new projects and should

ensure that non-OPEC supply continues to come on-stream – while helping to moderate demand.

Spare capacity among OPEC countries remains close to 7 million barrels per day (mb/d), which

together a modestly paced recovery in global GDP should prevent prices from rising sharply over the

medium-term. Longer-term physical supplies of oil are adequate to meet demand, but ―above-ground‖

constraints including access to reserves, political turmoil and OPEC market power could see prices

surge again – although prices much higher than $75 are probably not sustainable.

30-year treasury yields reach 2-year highpercent

Source: Thomson/Datastream.

2

3

4

5

6

Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09

Yield on 30 year

Treasury bond

Production in developing countries outside china

shows signs of stabilization while output decline

in high income countries moderates

-5

-3

-1

1

3

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09

Developing countries excluding China

High income countries

Percent change month over month

Source: World Bank through Thomson/Datastream.

June 16, 2009

External Environment for Developing Countries

Global Indicators

Global Indicators

(Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)

2007 2008e 2009f 2010f

GDP volume: World 3.8 1.9 -2.9 2.0 2.0

Memo item : World GDP at PPP weights 5.0 3.0 -1.7 2.8

High-income countries 2.6 0.7 -4.2 -2.9 1.3 1.6

Developing countries 8.1 8.2 5.9 5.8 1.2 2.1 4.4

Industrial production: World 4.4 4.5 0.5 - -

High-income countries 2.4 2.5 -1.9 -1.8 - -

Developing countries 9.8 6.2 6.3 - -

Export volume (GNFS): World 7.5 7.6 3.7 4.1 -9.7 -6.1 3.8 3.9

High-income countries 6.3 6.4 2.4 2.9 -10.7 -8.0 3.6

Developing countries 10.8 10.7 7.0 7.1 -7.2 -4.6 4.3

Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 5.5 3.2 7.5 1.5 1.9 1.7 1.0

Oil ($/bbl) 71.1 97.0 55.5 47.2 63.0 52.7

Non-oil commodities 17.1 21.0 -30.1 -32.0 -2.1 -2.5

Nominal interest rates:

$LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 5.2 4.5 3.2 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.9

€LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 4.3 4.5 4.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.0

Financial flows

FDI ($billion) 520.0 562.0 385.0

Gross Capital flowsa ($bn) 652.0 389.0 158.0

Equity placement ($bn) 194.0 68.0 33.0

Bond financing ($bn) 146.0 65.0 71.0

Lending ($bn) 312.0 257.0 54.0

Source: DECPG, June 2009. Estimates and projections based on GDF 2009, to be released 6-22-2009.

Note(s): a. Gross inflows 2009 based on year-to-date figures. Figures in bold represent changes this month.

June 16, 2009


United States

Domestic demand continues to stabilize.

The domestic economy in the United States

continued to send mixed signals oscillating between

the first signs of recovery and stabilization. Retail

sales increased 0.5 percent in May following a 0.2

percent decline in April. Auto sales also rose by 0.5

percent signaling an end to the sharp declines in the

fall and winter months. Unemployment continues to

rise but somewhat less quickly than in the past. The

coming on stream of the fiscal stimulus package

(including tax relief) should help support domestic

demand going forward, although higher oil prices will

be cutting into disposable income.

The yield on treasury bills has regained pre-crisis levels. A reversal in capital outflows from developing countries, reflected in declining emerging market spreads and rising equity prices helped to push the yield on U.S. treasuries up to 4.72 percent in early June – above the levels observed prior to the eruption of the current financial crisis. Concerns about long-term debt sustainability and inflation prospects also played a role. Interestingly, indirect bidders (often interpreted as foreign central banks) purchased about half the latest offering of U.S. T-bills, suggesting robust foreign interest for long-term U.S. debt at these prices. This came about despite announcements by Russia and China that they would buy $20 billion of bonds from the IMF and diversify their currency reserves.

Evolving nature of financial stress. Eight months following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, four of the largest Banks bailed out by the Troubled Assets Relief Program have begun repaying money owed to the Treasury, returning $44.7 billion borrowed under TARP legislation, with the rest signaling repayment before the end of the quarter. This despite the recent ‗stress test‘ that determined that only two U.S. banks were healthy enough to return federal funds. Standard and Poor‘s recently downgraded two of them and 16 other U.S. banks, with five banks being dropped to sub-investment grade. Credit Default Swaps for many U.S. banks have risen in response to this new development. Smaller regional banks may be next to turn towards the TARP lending facility in the near future.

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09

Retail sales in U.S. weaken after initial rebound

U.S. retail sales values, index, Aug. 2009=100

Motor vehicles and

parts

Total retail sales

Source: Thomson/Datastream, Commerce Department.

30-year treasury yields reach 2-year highpercent


2

3

4

5

6

Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09

Yield on 30 year

Treasury bond

Largest recipients of TARP funds

Banks that borrowed funds under TARP Amount

Borrowed ($bn)

Citigroup 50

Bank of America/Merrill Lynch 45

JPMorgan Chase 25

Wells Fargo 25

Goldman Sachs 10

Morgan Stanley 10

U.S. Bancorp 6.6

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. 2.5

State Street Corp 2.5

Source: U.S. Treasury.

June 16, 2009


Japan

Output in Japan strengthening on exports

to China. The value of Japanese exports to China

have picked up strongly in recent months, rising

more than 8 percent from their level in December

2008. Over the same period exports to other centers

continued to decline, falling by 15 percent. Despite

the uptick exports remain very depressed, down 39

percent from a year ago. Partly as a result, industrial

production has picked up somewhat, rising at a 4.9

percent annualized rate in April 2009. A recent

Reuters poll shows that business confidence has

improved sharply and that investment plans may be

revised upwards from the very weak levels of the

first quarter.

Unemployment reaches 5 percent of labor

force. Reflecting very weak internal and external

conditions, unemployment in Japan reached 5

percent of the labor force in March 2009, its highest

level since March 2003 when it reached 5.5 percent.

The upturn is remarkable both for the extent of

joblessness and the speed with which it has

increased. Given the weak recovery expected,

unemployment is projected to continue rising and

should average close to 6 percent in 2010.

Inflation heads into negative territory. Both

core and headline inflation in Japan have been

recording coming in negative over the past several

months. Overall consumer prices declined 0.1

percent in April 2009, partly pushed up by rising fuel

prices. Core prices continued falling and were down

0.4 percent from a year earlier. The decline reflects

the general weakness in the Japanese economy and

the deflation in core inflation has been intensifying.

The annualized decline in monthly core inflation has

averaged 0.7 percent over the past 4 months.

Japanese exports to Chinain Billion Yen

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000


Exports to China

(RHS)

Total exports

excluding China

(LHS)


Unemployment close to 2003 levelpercentage of labor force

3

4

5

6

Jan-00 Jul-01 Jan-03 Jul-04 Jan-06 Jul-07 Jan-09

Unemployment rate


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09

Core inflation falling Japanese consumer prices, year-over-year percent change

Core inflation

Headline inflation

Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

June 16, 2009


-1.5

-6.9

-9.5

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Q3-2008 Q4-2008 Q1-2009

Source: Eurostat

Euro Area Q1- Sharply lower as stock

building turns negativegrowth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points

Stocks

Government

Consumption

Investment

Net Exports

Euro Area

Sharp decline in euro-area GDP. GDP fell by

2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2009 or at a 9.5

percent annualized rate. The contributions to the fall

in output from consumption and investment were

less sharp than in the fourth quarter, but inventories

accumulation – which had been strong in each of the

two previous quarters decelerated sharply

subtracting 3.5 percent from overall annualized GDP

growth. Nevertheless inventories continued to

accumulate during this period – in sharp contrast to

the U.S. where inventories have been falling in

absolute terms for the past 6 quarters. As a result, a

rebound in inventory accumulation is less likely in

Europe.

Leading indicators for Europe lag. Leading

indicators for the OECD point to a recovery in activity

over the next six months, but data for Germany and

suggest that the downturn will continue there.

Indicators are somewhat more upbeat for France

and the United Kingdom with the indicators for these

countries suggesting that a possible trough in activity

has been reached. That said, both domestic and

foreign manufacturing order books in Germany have

stabilized in recent months after falling six-months

straight through February. Nevertheless, in April

2009 they remained 33 percent lower than their level

a year before.

Interest rates in Europe remain high. The

ECB has kept its policy rates high as compared with

core inflation, which remains broadly stable at just

under 2 percent. Year-over-year headline inflation

looks to be heading into negative territory on lower

food and fuel prices, but momentum measures tell a

different story with monthly rates of both headline

and core inflation picking up. Consumer prices in the

three months ending May 2009 were 2.5 percent

higher than in the previous 3 months, while

excluding food and energy the increase was even

higher.

85

90

95

100

105


Leading indicators for Europe lag those for the OECD

OECD composite leading indicators

Germany

OECD


ECB interest rate and inflationEurozone consumer prices, year-over-year percent change

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09

ECB interest rate

Core inflation

Headline inflation


June 16, 2009


80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

China

Leading indicators point to stronger months ahead, especially in China

trend-restored leading indicators

Source: OECD through Thomson/Datastream.

Asia

OECD

Eastern Europe

Industrial Production

Industrial output shows signs of

stabilization. Developing countries outside China

recorded a second consecutive month of gains in

March. This apparent bottoming out may reflect

more stable consumption and investment demand

and perhaps an end to the post-crisis de-stocking

that exacerbated the global downturn in IP. All

regions show improvement, but trends are most

positive in emerging East Asia, partly because of

strengthening Chinese activity (see below). Despite

improvements, output remains about 10 percent

below its July 2008 peak. Moreover, industrial

activity in high-income countries continues to fall,

although less quickly, due to weak investment

demand from significant excess capacity. In March,

industrial output in high-income countries stood 17.8

percent lower than the February 2008 peak.

Chinese recovery leads the rest of East

Asia. Chinese statistics do not permit the

calculation of monthly growth rates, but the pattern

of year-over-year industrial production growth

suggests a strong pickup in activity in recent months

as the country‘ large stimulus package and

expansionary monetary policy bear fruit. Car

demand is up, and fixed investment has picked up

30.5 percent in the first four months of the year.

Stronger demand for high-tech products helped

industrial production in and Korea, Thailand, Taiwan

recover somewhat (7 percent in the case of Taiwan)

following precipitous post-crisis declines.

Recovery to come from Asia? Leading

indicators (LI) also suggest a turning point may be at

hand, with the recovery already underway in China

expected to spread to the rest of Asia during the

second half of the year. Outside Asia the data is less

encouraging, with the readings for the US, Japan,

Germany, Brazil and Russia pointing to further

weakness. In Eastern Europe despite marginal

improvements in the past months the LI remain

below levels reached at the beginning of last year,

suggesting a lackluster recovery.

-5

-3

-1

1

3


Developing

countries

excluding China

High income

countries

Production in developing countries outside China shows signs of stabilization while output decline in

high income countries moderatespercent (month-on-month)

Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


China*

In China IP gets a boost from strong domestic demand helping moderate the annual output decline

in the rest of developing East Asia percent (year-on-year)

Source: Thomson/Datastream, Haver, DECPG.* For China growth rates for January and February represent year-on-year growth for the January-February period.

East Asia excluding

China

June 16, 2009


International Trade

Both export and import volumes in high-

income countries show signs are

stabilizing at lower levels. The abrupt decline

in global trade levels appears to have come to an

end. Export and import volumes in the United States

and Japan have stabilized and or recovered in

recent months, although they remain much lower

than the levels observed a year ago. In Europe

similar trends are visible.

Momentum measures of the value of

merchandise trade also point to a possible

recovery in trade. Although the value of goods

exports continues to contract sharply on an annual

basis, on a quarter-on-quarter, annualized basis

(momentum growth), the pace of decline has

moderated markedly in the last two months. For

example, for developing countries the rate of

contraction (% ch, qtr/qtr, saar) eased from 62% in

the quarter ending in February 2009 to minus 41% in

the quarter ending in April (chart). This trend reflects

stabilization in industrial production in high income

countries and developing countries—with a recent

firming of IP in China.

Recent firming in Baltic Dry Index freight

rates also suggests a coming recovery in

trade activity. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI)—a

measure of worldwide shipping freight rates for dry bulk

cargoes, such as iron ore—firmed to just over 4070 as

of June 18, up over 500% from its recent December 5th

2008 low, and bringing the June monthly average

(through June 19) to the highest level since September

2008. As the BDI cargoes are raw material inputs for

production it provides some indication of real-time

global trade activity. China‘s strategic stock building of

metals is likely contributing to the recent uptick in the

BDI. Similarly, China‘s official purchasing managers‘

index for new export orders in the last few months

through May was above the 50 mark--indicating

expansion.

Exports and Imports volumes are

stabilizing

Volume index, January 2008 = 100

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09

US import

US export

Japan import

Japan export

Source: JP Morgan

Pace of decline in trade is easing on a momentum basis

goods exports, nominal, qtr/qtr ch% (saar)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60


High Income Countries

Developing Countries

Source: Thomson/Datastream

Baltic Exchange Dry Index suggests

recovery in trade activity

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

June-08 September-08 December-08 March-09 June-09

Baltic Exchange Dry Index

Source: Thomson/Datastream

June 16, 2009


Commodity Prices

Oil prices rise but physical markets still

slack. Crude oil prices averaged $47.5/bbl during

the first five months of 2009, but have risen steadily

in recent weeks, shooting above $70/bbl in June.

The gains have been buoyed by dollar depreciation,

falling OPEC production (down 4 mb/d from its Jan.

2009 peak), expectations of increased demand, and

wider investor appetite for risk. At its end-May

meeting, OPEC left quotas unchanged with prices

approaching the group‘s preferred range of some

$75-80/bbl – indeed OPEC output has been rising

most recently. The big question is at what price level

OPEC will raise output. Some ministers have

recently suggested not before oil reaches $100/bbl,

which could contribute to further price rises.

Crude oil inventories starting to fall. While

crude oil stocks remain high due to falling demand,

OECD inventories in April (mainly in Europe and the

Pacific, but most recently in the U.S. as well) started

to fall from their lofty levels. Global oil demand is still

falling—by an estimated 3.2 mb/d or 4% in the

second quarter, with the OECD down a whopping

6.5%. However, U.S. gasoline demand is

strengthening, even showing a marginal rise over the

latest 4-week period. However demand for other

products seems to be falling. The latest data shows

total U.S. demand dropping 8%. Elsewhere demand

growth is turning positive in China and the Middle

East.

Futures prices rise and contango narrows.

WTI futures prices have risen along with spot prices,

with futures prices for 2016 and 2017 (most distant

contract) topping $90/bbl. This partly reflects investor

expectations of rising demand over the longer term

and constrained supply, including OPEC restraint.

Overall, the contango (future prices above near-by

prices) that has characterized markets this year has

been narrowing as market surpluses ease. The

earlier stronger contango encouraged markets to

build up stocks including storing some 100 billion

barrels in tankers at sea. As the forward curve has

started to flatten, some of this oil is being delivered—

about 30 million barrels have come ashore.

Oil prices surge on expectations of

tightening supply

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

$/bbl mb/d

Oil price

[L scale]

OPEC Production [R]

Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

U.S. crude oil inventories still large

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

M bbl

5-year high-low ranges

Source: U.S. Dept Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.

WTI Futures Prices – NYMEXMonthly contract prices to Dec 2014* for select dates in 2009

Jun 11

$/bbl

Feb 18

Jan 15Apr 30


June 16, 2009


Agriculture prices rise on supply

constraints and strong demand for fats &

oils. Dollar prices of agriculture goods rose 6.3% in

May—up 18.5% this year—on the weaker dollar,

strong import demand and various shortfalls in

supply. The largest gains were in fats and oils, up

13.2 percent and nearly 40 percent this year, due to

strong import demand in China and other

industrializing countries. There also have been

weather-related supply problems in South America in

the case of soybeans, and tight supplies of palm and

palmkernel oils in Asia. Wheat, maize and cotton

prices recorded strong gains on lower than expected

production. Coffee (arabica) prices increased 12

percent due to weather-induced shortfalls in Latin

America, while tea prices increased 7 percent on dry

weather in major producing countries.

Metals prices up on China stocking. Despite

weak demand for metals in most of the world, strong

demand in China associated with a build up of

inventories caused metals price to rise sharply this

year. The largest gains have been in copper and

lead, with most recent daily prices up over 80% this

year. Although global inventories are likely broadly

stable, stocks on the London exchange have

declined even as they rise in China. More recently,

the price of other metals have picked, with double-

digit gains in May for nickel and tin. Underlying

physical consumption generally remains weak, thus

prices are apt to recede once China‘s re-stocking

ends.

Steel production rebounding in Asia, but

remains depressed elsewhere. World steel

production fell by almost one-third last year from its

peak in May to December low, but has since

rebounded 9% largely due to gains in China. The

demand for steel is improving in China, buoyed by

stimulus-related construction demand. China‘s iron

ore imports rose 21% y/y over the first four months.

Elsewhere, steel production has risen in recent

weeks, but is still down 38% from last year‘s high.

OECD steel production is barely half its 2008 peak,

with similar rates of decline in all three main regions.

Other developing Asia is down 13% and the FSU

one-third.

100

150

200

250

300

350


GrainsFats & Oils

Beverages

Other Food

Food prices rise on lower

supplies prospects(2000=100)

Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

Copper prices surge on China

stocking and declining stocks

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000


$/ton ‘000 tons

Copper price

LME stocks

Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

Global steel production has

bottomed

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

Other

China

Other Asia Pacific

mil tons

Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

June 16, 2009


International Finance

Flows to developing countries have

strengthened over the past few months.

Capital flows to emerging markets jumped to $22

billion in May from $13 billion in April, with all

segments strengthening. Nevertheless, for the

year to date, flows are 62% lower than the same

period last year, mostly because bank lending is

only 25 percent as strong as a year ago. There

were 10 bond issues in May. More than two thirds

of issues were investment grade in May vs 47

percent over the past 3 years. Equity flows rose

by $6 billion in May, mainly due to surge of

issuance from India.

Most of the bond activity reflected

sovereign borrowing. Year to date, sovereign

borrowers accounted for 63% ($20 billion) of bond

issuance, Much lower than its average share of

35% over the preceding 3 years. Corporate

borrowing during the first 5 months of 2009

represented only $11 billion, mainly reflecting

Latin America borrowers. The concentration of

bond activity is similar to the post Russia crisis

period when like now, 2/3 of issues were

sovereign – reflecting in part lenders wariness viz-

a-viz corporate borrowers.

Returns to EM assets continued to

strengthen in May. Emerging market assets

posted another strong gain in May, marking the

third consecutive month of positive performance –

reflecting a reversal in capital outflows and

increased appetite for risk. EM stocks valuations

have increased 32% so far, sharply outperforming

developed world stocks (6.5%). Russian stocks

are up 84%, Chinese stocks have advanced 60%,

India markets are up 58%, and those in Brazil

43%. EM corporate returns have outperformed

their sovereign counterparts, but returns in the

second half of 2009 are unlikely to be as strong

given gains to date.

Flows surged in May, but year-to-date

volumes are 62% below year-earlier

levels

Source: DECPG Finance Team.

Gross capital flows to emerging markets

$ billion

Q1 Total Q1 Jan-May Total Q1 Apr May YTD

Total 156 652 103 194 389 45 13 22 80

Bonds 58 146 12 36 65 18 5 8 31

Banks 72 312 71 115 257 19 2 8 29

Equity 26 194 20 43 68 9 5 6 20

Lat. America 42 156 19 46 90 21 2 4 27

Bonds 20 45 5 16 20 10 2 1 13

E. Europe 79 247 36 66 157 5 4 7 16

Bonds 27 64 2 15 35 3 3 5 10

Asia 24 188 38 57 98 17 7 9 32

Bonds 8 23 3 3 7 5 1 1 6

Others 11 61 11 24 44 2 0 3 5

2007 2008 2009

Source: Dealogic.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1998-2000

average

2001-04 average 2005-08 average 2009 average

(Jan.-May.)

Sovereign issuance

Corporate issuance

Sovereigns have dominated EM bond

issuance activity in 2009

$ billions

Continued strong performances by EM

assets

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Q1-09 Apr-09 May-09 YTD*

EMBIG CEMBI (corporate)

MSCI EM MSCI BRIC

Source: Bloomberg and JP Morgan*as of June 12th

Total returns (%)

June 16, 2009


Physical markets are slack but prices

reflect expectations of supply tightness.

Spot crude oil prices in June (near $72/bbl) are

double their late-December lows, but only half their

July peaks. Prices are being driven by expectations

of strong growth in demand in developing countries

and continued supply constraints—including

voluntary OPEC restraint. It is unlikely prices will

approach $150/bbl any time soon given the slump in

demand and large supply overhang. However, non-

OPEC supply continues to struggle and OPEC has

taken significant volumes off the market. Key

uncertainties are the extent of demand

recovery/destruction, non-supply prospects, and

OPEC‘s willingness to control prices on the upside.

Oil demand falling due to recession and

high prices. OECD oil demand has been falling

for more than 3 years due to conservation, efficiency

gains, substitution and most recently falling

economic activity. These declines occurred even

during periods of strong economic growth in part

because of the adoption of alternative technologies

prompted by high prices and new efficiency and

environmental standards. The largest declines in

demand were in the U.S., which consumes nearly ¼

of the world‘s oil. Oil demand from non-OECD

countries declined in the first quarter of 2009, but is

now picking up. However, because global GDP is

projected to recover only slowly, the acceleration in

oil demand is also expected to be muted.

OPEC’s challenge is to control prices. With

the slump in demand and new capacity additions,

OPEC‘s spare capacity has surged above 6 mb/d. In

the absence of rapid demand growth, the surplus is

expected to endure for some time. While non-OPEC

supplies have struggled this decade, this was partly

due to rising exploration and exploitation costs that

have since declined. Current prices should be

sufficient to provide the financial incentive necessary

to bring forth adequate supply to meet demand over

the medium-term. However, access to reserves and

the possibility that OPEC cuts too sharply into

production could send prices higher temporarily.

Focus: Oil prices back to $150/bbl?

Shane Streifel, DECPG

Oil prices rising…

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-99 Jan-09 Jan-09 Jan-09 Jan-09 Jan-09

$/bbl million bbl

Oil price [L scale]

OECD stocks [R]


World Oil Consumption Growth

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 4Q09

Other

Oth Asia

China

OECD

mb/d


OPEC Spare Capacity (mb/d)


June 16, 2009


Weights Average 2008 2009 2009 2009

2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May

World 100.0 2.7 4.6 4.4 0.5 -0.7 -5.6 -20.7 -16.9 -2.4 -1.9 .. ..

High-income c ountries 77.2 1.4 3.0 2.4 -1.9 -4.1 -7.9 -22.8 -30.5 -2.0 -0.7 .. ..

Industrial c ountries 72.7 1.4 3.2 2.6 -2.1 -4.3 -8.0 -22.6 -30.4 -2.2 -0.7 0.3 ..

United Sta tes 25.1 1.3 2.3 1.5 -2.2 -4.6 -9.0 -12.9 -19.2 -1.0 -1.7 -0.5 ..

Japan 17.3 1.1 4.1 2.9 -3.2 -4.9 -11.5 -37.3 -61.6 -9.1 1.3 4.9 ..

Euro Area 22.9 1.2 3.5 3.0 -2.0 -5.5 -6.6 -23.6 -29.0 -2.3 -1.1 .. ..

United Kindgom 4.1 -0.3 0.7 0.1 -2.8 -4.6 -6.8 -16.7 -19.4 -0.8 -0.5 .. ..

Other high income 4.5 2.3 1.6 0.7 2.8 -2.6 -3.2 -28.8 .. 6.7 .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China ) 0.2 -3.2 2.4 -1.6 -6.1 -6.0 -12.6 -6.5 .. .. .. .. ..

Singapore 0.4 6.3 12.0 6.4 -4.2 -41.7 3.5 -26.0 -25.9 13.1 -16.5 28.5 ..

Ta iwa n (China) 1.1 4.7 4.6 8.2 -1.3 -4.4 -12.6 -62.3 -36.5 28.8 -1.0 10.8 ..

Developing countries 22.8 6.6 8.8 9.8 6.2 7.7 -0.2 -15.2 19.3 -3.2 -4.1 .. ..

East Asia and Pac ific 8.7 11.4 13.0 15.0 11.2 15.0 2.2 -10.6 65.8 -6.0 -6.5 -0.1 ..

China 6.3 13.8 16.5 17.7 13.0 18.8 3.4 -9.1 85.0 -7.2 -7.6 -0.5 ..

Indonesia 0.9 3.4 -2.0 5.7 2.9 0.4 -8.7 0.9 5.6 2.2 1.2 .. ..

Thailand 0.6 8.6 7.3 8.2 5.3 -2.2 3.2 -35.1 -33.3 2.6 1.6 7.6 ..

Ma la ysia 0.5 5.8 5.0 1.2 0.6 -7.0 -5.5 -26.8 -23.5 1.7 -3.5 .. ..

Europe and Central Asia 3.2 5.1 8.0 7.2 0.7 1.1 -5.5 -30.5 -23.3 2.6 0.8 .. ..

Russian Federation 1.0 5.5 6.5 6.3 2.3 9.4 1.2 -31.6 -24.3 6.2 0.7 -5.1 ..

Turkey 0.5 3.7 7.9 6.9 -0.9 -8.0 -15.3 -34.8 -23.4 -3.1 1.1 2.4 ..

Poland 0.6 6.3 12.3 9.3 2.3 -10.5 -8.4 -18.7 -9.1 1.0 1.4 .. ..

Czech Republic 0.2 4.7 8.2 10.2 -2.2 1.8 -13.0 -34.9 -29.2 1.9 -0.8 .. ..

Latin America and Caribbe an 6.2 1.5 4.3 4.7 1.0 -0.9 -0.2 -20.2 -20.8 -0.1 0.0 .. ..

Brazil 1.8 3.3 2.9 5.9 2.9 3.2 10.1 -33.0 -27.9 1.9 0.9 1.1 ..

Me xico 1.7 .. 5.7 2.4 -1.0 -4.0 -4.8 -11.9 -19.0 0.0 -2.0 .. ..

Argentina 0.8 2.7 7.8 7.6 0.4 -5.5 -12.2 -21.5 -14.1 -0.7 2.6 0.9 ..

Colombia 0.3 2.6 10.7 10.7 -3.2 4.8 -14.4 -14.5 .. -1.0 .. .. ..

Middle Ea st and North Africa 1.9 1.7 -0.5 -0.4 3.6 3.3 2.2 -3.0 .. 0.4 .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 1.2 1.0 -4.2 -4.7 6.2 4.7 5.8 -19.1 .. 0.3 .. .. ..

I ran 0.4 1.0 -2.7 -2.9 2.9 2.3 5.6 -7.4 .. 0.9 .. .. ..

Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria 0.3 4.2 0.9 1.1 2.1 3.8 0.0 -1.0 .. 0.4 .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 6.8 10.6 9.2 4.1 2.5 -1.3 -5.5 -4.0 0.6 -2.5 .. ..

India 1.3 6.7 10.6 9.9 4.4 1.6 1.5 -5.1 -1.5 0.5 -1.4 .. ..

Pakistan 0.2 6.7 10.6 5.5 -0.8 7.1 -21.4 -9.1 -22.9 1.8 -11.7 .. ..

Bangla desh 0.1 .. 11.1 6.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 .. 3.7 5.7 .. 6.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 0.4 2.5 4.7 4.6 0.9 16.0 -11.8 -25.6 -24.7 -1.0 0.1 .. ..

Nige ria 0.3 .. 0.2 -0.7 .. -7.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 75.9 1.5 3.4 2.7 -2.0 -4.3 -8.1 -22.5 -30.0 -2.2 -0.8 0.1 ..

Developing excl. China 16.6 3.5 5.1 5.6 2.0 1.0 -2.7 -19.6 -17.0 1.0 -0.1 .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.9 0.8 -1.4 0.7 2.0 -0.8 -3.3 -2.5 .. 0.2 .. .. ..

Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 7.7 10.6 11.3 6.8 9.1 0.0 -16.7 22.0 -3.4 -4.2 .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; perc ent; seasonally adjuste d annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change ov er pre vious month a/)

aIn general, se ries refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not a vailable the closest proxy is used, often

manufacturing output or oil output, if the c ountry is a ma jor oil producer.

June 16, 2009




Real GDP a

High-income countries 78.6 2.3 2.9 2.6 0.7 0.3 -0.9 -8.0 -8.4 .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 75.4 2.2 2.8 2.4 0.6 0.5 -1.3 -7.9 -8.0 .. .. .. ..

United States 10.9 2.5 2.8 2.0 1.1 2.8 -0.5 -6.3 -5.7 .. .. .. ..

Japan 20.9 1.3 2.0 2.3 -0.7 -2.2 -2.9 -13.5 -14.2 .. .. .. ..

Euro Area 27.2 2.0 3.0 2.7 0.6 -1.1 -1.5 -6.9 -9.5 .. .. .. ..

United Kindgom 6.2 2.6 2.8 3.0 0.7 -0.1 -2.8 -6.1 -7.3 .. .. .. ..

Other high income 3.2 4.3 5.9 6.1 1.5 -5.7 9.0 -11.4 -20.9 .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.8 .. 7.0 6.4 2.4 -10.0 27.6 1.6 -38.0 .. .. .. ..

Singapore 0.4 5.6 8.4 7.8 1.2 -7.7 -2.1 -16.4 -14.6 .. .. .. ..

Taiwan (China) 1.4 3.8 4.8 5.7 0.1 -6.1 6.3 -20.7 -18.0 .. .. .. ..

Real merchandise imports b

High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.7 4.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.1 2.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States 23.8 8.2 5.7 1.3 -3.9 -3.9 -3.6 -5.9 -18.6 -5.8 -1.2 .. ..

Japan 6.7 5.2 4.0 -0.4 -0.6 2.5 -1.7 -6.1 -17.1 -13.0 0.5 2.2 ..

Euro Area 37.1 .. 5.5 6.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United Kindgom 6.7 6.3 10.2 -4.2 -1.9 2.1 -2.6 -8.1 -15.2 -2.1 -2.8 .. ..

Other high income 11.7 5.5 9.2 10.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 4.1 6.6 10.1 10.4 2.6 5.6 3.2 -6.2 -20.9 -6.0 1.5 .. ..

Singapore 2.3 5.2 11.2 6.1 9.7 12.7 11.0 0.5 -16.0 1.2 -1.4 -3.1 ..

Taiwan (China) 2.2 6.3 3.7 -0.2 -4.1 -3.9 -1.6 -17.5 -35.0 47.1 -11.7 2.6 -2.1

Import Prices c

High-income countries 100.0 .. 5.8 6.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.2 7.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States 23.8 -0.1 4.9 4.2 11.5 19.1 17.5 -3.8 -13.6 -0.1 0.2 1.6 ..

Japan 6.7 -1.4 6.8 7.2 21.9 26.3 33.9 8.5 -9.6 -1.8 -2.9 -1.3 ..

Euro Area 37.1 .. 9.0 8.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United Kindgom 6.7 -1.3 3.1 11.0 7.5 14.8 13.2 -8.6 -21.9 0.3 -0.2 .. ..

Other high income 11.7 -1.0 4.2 3.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 4.1 -1.2 1.3 -0.3 2.9 3.8 4.2 1.9 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 .. ..

Singapore 2.3 -0.3 6.6 3.6 11.5 19.4 21.4 -7.5 -17.8 -1.1 0.8 3.2 ..

Taiwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 7.1 8.1 13.9 23.2 22.2 -5.4 -16.5 -1.7 -0.3 0.8 3.3

Real effective exchange rates d

Euro Area 33.5 1.6 0.9 4.1 4.2 8.7 5.5 -4.6 -6.3 -1.4 1.8 0.5 0.6

United States 14.4 -2.2 -2.7 -4.6 -3.7 -9.5 -5.9 11.4 19.4 3.0 0.8 -3.0 -3.7

Japan 7.4 -1.3 -8.9 -6.6 9.9 5.9 3.4 25.9 24.4 -1.7 -5.3 -3.8 -1.6

United Kindgom 5.4 -1.7 -0.2 2.1 -12.0 -10.1 -11.9 -17.1 -17.2 2.7 -2.0 2.0 2.9

Canada 3.5 0.0 3.2 0.8 -8.3 -3.3 -10.5 -23.3 -20.6 0.2 -1.2 2.0 4.5

Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -4.3 -2.6 -5.0 -8.2 -11.3 -10.6 -1.3 7.9 1.5 -0.2 -0.3 -2.2

Korea, Rep. 2.5 0.7 4.8 -2.0 -15.8 -13.1 -12.8 -29.1 -27.3 -3.2 0.5 7.4 7.7

Singapore 2.3 1.4 5.1 6.9 4.6 4.0 7.3 4.6 -4.7 -1.2 -1.0 4.3 0.2

Taiwan (China) 2.1 -1.9 0.1 -1.3 -4.2 -2.3 -2.1 -8.9 -10.8 1.2 0.3 0.4 1.8

Switzerland 1.7 -0.9 -4.3 -4.9 2.2 1.9 -0.1 5.9 7.5 -0.2 0.3 -0.5 -0.3

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ Real GDP aggregated using 1995 weights.

b/ On a customs or BoP basis, as available. Weights are 1995 merchandise import: aggregate calculated as sum of components.

c/ Aggregate prices are implicit prices of aggregate US dollar value divided by aggregate constant 1995 dollar volume.

d/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.

June 16, 2009


Weights Average 2008 2009 2009 2009 Latest

1995 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr May 17-Jun

Policy Rates

United States .. 3.44 4.96 5.02 1.93 2.09 1.96 0.52 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.17 0.18

Japan .. 0.33 0.24 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.55 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30

Euro Area .. .. 2.76 3.84 3.89 4.00 4.23 3.34 1.99 1.66 1.31 1.10 1.00

United Kindgom .. 4.80 4.64 5.51 4.67 5.03 5.00 3.32 1.09 0.57 0.50 0.50 0.50

Ten year bond

United States .. 4.70 4.78 4.63 3.66 3.85 3.84 3.25 2.67 2.82 2.84 3.22 3.55

Japan .. 1.49 1.74 1.67 1.49 1.60 1.53 1.44 1.28 1.30 1.40 1.42 1.55

Euro Area .. .. 3.73 4.20 4.00 4.24 4.29 3.51 3.12 3.12 3.14 3.34 3.60

United Kindgom .. 4.77 4.48 5.01 4.52 4.80 4.70 4.07 3.48 3.29 3.33 3.57 3.78

Spreads (Basis points)b,c

Developing countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China .. 82 64 71 166 139 157 229 184 178 182 134 72

Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Thailand .. .. 54 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia .. 129 84 87 201 135 161 377 352 350 313 236 178

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation .. 262 111 121 328 169 238 715 694 671 536 430 377

Turkey .. 404 223 214 383 312 336 593 537 561 445 373 316

Poland .. 99 59 61 159 104 131 293 311 319 322 248 179

Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean .. 522 227 221 438 304 367 759 735 728 655 562 491

Brazil .. 551 233 180 301 214 252 480 431 433 382 312 267

Mexico .. 206 137 126 254 162 213 452 436 449 370 295 256

Argentina .. 2920 343 320 858 557 696 1698 1696 1863 1784 1453 1129

Colombia .. 370 194 161 305 192 237 540 489 484 418 322 287

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 338 476 585 505 486 804 808 763 714 627 514

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. .. 79 86 262 180 244 393 251 221 143 145 111

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia d

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan .. .. 199 283 1040 596 965 2031 1943 1811 1587 1333 1115

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa .. 172 90 100 329 215 254 616 461 442 385 330 284

Nigeria .. .. 245 77 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gross inflows e

Developing countries .. .. 494 683 370 148 73 46 45 13 13 22 ..

East Asia and Pacific .. .. 111 145 67 26 12 7 14 2 6 6 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 179 252 155 63 34 22 5 0 4 7 ..

Latin America and Carribean .. .. 116 157 80 38 14 10 21 8 2 4 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 16 15 25 13 6 2 1 0 0 0 ..

South Asia .. .. 42 69 25 4 4 1 2 2 0 3 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 30 46 17 4 4 4 2 1 0 3 ..

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple

averages of the monthly figures.

b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.

c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.

d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.

e/In billions of US dollars.

June 16, 2009


Weightsb Average 2008 2009 2009 2009


Energy .. .. 220.9 244.8 342.0 417.8 406.0 212.9 166.3 158.9 169.7 177.5 201.1

Coal, Australia .. 15.8 187.0 250.4 484.2 528.2 620.2 354.2 274.0 287.2 232.4 242.1 245.7

Crude oil, average .. 22.2 227.7 251.9 343.6 428.5 409.8 198.4 156.3 148.2 165.2 178.1 206.0

Natural gas , Europe .. 18.7 219.5 221.7 347.5 321.4 378.9 408.1 309.5 286.1 282.5 220.6 209.7

Non-energy 100.00 .. 192.0 224.7 272.0 307.8 292.6 206.3 198.1 196.9 198.2 208.1 217.6

Agriculture 69.10 .. 150.2 180.3 229.5 259.4 243.5 178.6 181.9 182.3 180.1 189.0 200.9

Beverages 16.90 .. 145.4 169.9 210.0 221.4 226.8 181.2 197.9 200.8 193.2 201.9 205.9

Cocoa 3.90 4.4 175.7 215.5 284.5 305.2 312.0 247.4 286.7 294.4 276.1 284.9 273.3

Coffee, arabica 8.00 0.3 131.4 141.9 160.5 164.2 167.3 139.5 147.9 148.7 147.6 154.9 173.4

Coffee, robusta 2.80 2.4 163.1 209.1 254.2 266.8 268.2 210.9 192.6 193.7 184.3 182.4 182.6

Food 29.40 .. 147.0 184.7 247.4 286.3 260.5 185.7 190.4 190.3 189.4 199.0 214.9

Fats and oils 10.10 .. 137.9 209.0 277.3 327.7 288.9 182.4 191.4 192.4 187.1 210.8 238.6

Palm oil 2.30 3.5 154.2 251.5 305.7 386.2 299.1 165.0 186.1 184.4 192.7 225.6 257.5

Soybean meal 4.10 9.6 110.6 163.0 224.4 255.7 238.1 169.3 192.7 201.4 181.9 205.1 233.0

Soybeans 2.00 8.0 126.8 181.3 246.8 276.2 267.3 178.1 186.0 184.1 178.9 195.4 222.9

Grains 6.90 .. 149.8 189.0 281.7 335.2 298.5 218.6 221.3 218.6 220.3 216.9 225.8

Maize 1.70 8.1 137.6 184.9 252.0 292.5 276.4 190.2 188.5 184.5 185.9 190.3 203.2

Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 7.9 150.6 161.3 321.2 422.6 347.3 278.8 289.7 291.9 290.6 271.6 260.1

Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 10.0 168.3 223.7 285.8 303.7 278.5 200.0 203.0 196.9 202.4 205.3 229.9

Other food 12.40 .. 156.4 149.0 177.1 187.4 188.9 160.2 161.3 161.7 164.5 167.4 173.9

Bananas, US 2.30 5.6 159.7 159.4 199.1 216.9 182.7 199.7 210.2 222.6 214.5 209.9 195.8

Sugar, world 7.50 0.6 126.1 98.0 115.7 115.5 126.7 102.5 109.4 110.1 111.3 113.6 129.3

Raw materials 22.80 .. 160.4 174.9 195.7 213.7 210.4 160.0 153.1 153.6 150.8 158.0 164.5

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 0.9 97.3 107.1 120.9 127.9 129.2 97.5 92.8 93.5 87.2 96.2 104.7

Rubber, Singapore 4.80 13.6 311.6 339.2 387.6 454.9 447.3 238.3 218.9 219.3 214.5 243.4 253.8

Sawnwood, Malaysia 2.90 6.3 126.0 135.6 149.5 157.4 151.4 144.6 136.8 135.6 137.2 137.2 143.8

Fertilizers 2.70 .. 168.6 240.1 566.7 624.1 741.1 492.2 376.6 366.1 358.6 314.8 300.5

Triple superphosphate 0.90 17.7 146.4 246.2 638.6 752.6 804.4 478.3 233.6 232.4 214.2 201.9 179.3

Metals and minerals 28.20 .. 280.3 314.0 325.7 371.1 342.4 230.6 211.0 207.6 217.0 235.4 242.3

Aluminum 7.90 6.6 165.9 170.3 166.1 189.8 179.9 117.6 87.8 85.9 86.2 91.7 94.3

Copper 9.30 15.4 370.7 392.5 383.6 465.6 423.5 215.3 189.1 182.8 206.8 243.0 251.9

Gold .. 11.5 216.6 249.7 312.4 321.1 311.6 284.7 325.6 338.0 331.2 319.0 332.8

Nickel 2.20 16.4 280.8 431.0 244.4 297.3 219.5 125.5 121.2 120.5 112.3 129.3 146.3

Memo:

Crude Oil (US$) .. 22.2 64.3 71.1 97.0 121.0 115.7 56.0 44.1 41.8 46.6 50.3 58.2

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.

b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.

June 16, 2009




Export values

Developing countries 100.0 16.8 22.4 19.4 20.7 18.2 15.1 -46.2 -55.3 -8.1 7.8 -5.4 ..

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 18.5 23.9 22.2 16.6 17.2 16.6 -41.9 -55.7 -9.6 9.9 -6.7 ..

China 16.7 22.8 27.2 25.7 17.3 16.3 17.2 -40.9 -56.1 -10.3 10.7 -7.1 ..

Indonesia 4.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Thailand 4.6 12.6 16.9 17.2 16.9 24.2 0.7 -57.2 -24.9 7.1 -12.7 3.4 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 18.9 21.5 23.3 26.3 22.7 7.0 -68.6 -59.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 ..

Russian Federation 7.1 20.3 24.5 16.8 33.1 21.4 14.5 -71.7 -80.5 1.7 0.7 1.6 ..

Turkey 1.8 17.2 16.4 25.4 23.1 -10.3 21.2 -76.8 19.6 -7.6 -15.0 -1.3 ..

Poland 2.1 19.7 22.5 25.9 23.6 35.5 -10.4 -76.4 -32.1 3.0 -7.7 .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 10.9 19.8 13.3 12.0 16.0 7.3 -54.9 -49.0 1.6 -1.7 5.9 ..

Brazil 3.7 14.5 16.3 16.6 23.2 101.8 11.4 -47.9 -65.1 7.2 -1.5 14.1 -13.6

Mexico 11.2 9.5 16.7 8.8 7.2 3.4 -2.2 -54.4 -43.6 -0.6 -1.0 -0.2 ..

Argentina 1.8 10.2 15.3 19.8 25.5 -23.5 119.0 -72.4 -36.2 1.5 -4.4 17.5 ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. 30.4 6.4 .. 42.7 23.0 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 .. 23.6 0.9 .. 15.5 24.4 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 22.7 32.5 18.2 57.3 184.6 -27.7 -73.1 -11.1 -2.1 -5.5 .. ..

South Asia 4.3 15.3 19.0 18.1 17.3 51.0 -4.2 -55.2 -25.0 -2.9 -16.7 12.4 ..

India 2.8 17.8 21.4 21.6 17.5 53.7 -3.1 -58.2 -23.7 -2.7 -17.6 13.5 ..

Pakistan 0.6 9.4 5.2 2.4 21.2 31.9 -10.2 -39.4 -43.7 -4.0 -9.7 3.7 ..

Bangladesh 0.4 .. 24.2 7.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 20.6 16.3 .. -9.8 41.7 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 2.0 12.0 12.3 19.3 19.3 19.0 29.2 -61.6 -59.6 2.7 5.5 -10.0 ..

Nigeria 1.4 .. 24.4 10.2 .. 32.5 45.1 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Export prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 .. 6.7 4.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 .. 3.1 2.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 16.7 0.0 2.8 1.7 2.3 7.3 4.2 -2.7 -5.0 -2.9 -0.5 .. ..

Indonesia 4.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Thailand 4.6 5.7 3.7 6.4 11.4 44.9 5.8 -23.7 -8.6 0.1 -0.8 1.2 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 .. 9.2 9.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 7.1 .. 16.2 20.2 .. 45.9 50.0 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Turkey 1.8 3.8 3.5 12.5 15.5 30.6 13.7 -55.2 -33.3 -2.9 -2.9 .. ..

Poland 2.1 -0.9 6.4 0.4 -4.6 -6.1 -14.2 24.5 .. 5.8 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 6.6 12.0 7.5 14.9 35.6 18.7 -52.6 -37.7 -2.6 -0.1 .. ..

Brazil 3.7 5.4 12.5 10.5 26.3 47.1 56.8 -35.2 -48.5 -3.5 0.1 -1.1 ..

Mexico 11.2 5.8 7.5 5.1 9.8 36.8 4.4 -64.5 -26.6 -1.5 0.3 5.2 ..

Argentina 1.8 5.3 8.6 11.5 24.6 20.9 6.2 -37.0 -36.3 -1.1 -3.6 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 .. 25.8 3.7 .. 47.4 -27.7 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 .. -7.7 -6.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 .. -1.6 7.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 4.3 2.5 3.6 10.8 8.7 13.5 -0.5 -2.5 .. .. .. .. ..

India 2.8 4.4 6.0 9.7 9.5 8.3 3.1 -3.6 -11.8 -1.3 -1.6 -2.0 -2.4

Pakistan 0.6 0.5 2.6 3.3 12.5 26.8 -26.3 13.0 .. .. .. .. ..

Bangladesh 0.4 -6.8 -6.3 13.1 -4.7 -17.7 -13.0 2.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 2.0 7.1 8.4 7.5 12.2 -2.9 7.2 -45.3 .. .. .. .. ..

Nigeria 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis.

/b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional

trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

June 16, 2009




Import values

Developing countries 100.0 .. 19.3 21.9 .. 27.7 16.4 -52.1 -52.5 25.2 -6.5 -12.7 ..

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 18.7 16.8 18.6 21.3 22.1 -4.2 -62.3 -54.1 35.9 -2.3 1.6 ..

China 19.3 23.2 19.9 20.8 18.6 23.3 -5.3 -62.8 -52.9 39.2 -2.5 1.5 ..

Indonesia 2.1 16.8 5.8 22.0 73.5 43.1 1.2 -50.5 -76.3 -5.1 0.4 -6.5 ..

Thailand 4.2 15.5 9.0 8.7 27.6 -9.2 58.5 -52.6 -77.5 -12.0 8.7 5.9 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. 25.2 28.4 .. 32.2 40.5 -40.4 -50.5 20.6 -10.2 .. ..

Russian Federation 3.9 17.5 31.0 36.0 30.6 34.2 46.7 -35.6 -49.8 23.6 -11.1 -29.6 ..

Turkey 3.2 16.0 19.5 21.8 18.8 1.3 11.7 -80.0 -49.2 -7.4 3.2 -3.2 ..

Poland 3.6 16.1 23.7 29.9 26.9 28.5 -2.9 -73.9 -57.2 -4.7 -4.8 .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 10.0 19.1 19.0 20.9 23.0 17.7 -45.4 -60.8 -3.8 -3.4 -0.7 ..

Brazil 3.2 11.6 24.1 32.0 43.5 73.6 33.4 -46.7 -70.8 -10.1 -0.8 0.0 -5.0

Mexico 11.6 9.4 15.4 10.1 9.5 0.2 9.7 -50.3 -50.8 -0.6 -1.8 -3.6 ..

Argentina 0.6 6.2 19.0 30.9 28.4 44.6 2.1 -55.2 -74.0 2.9 -7.3 1.7 ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. 8.2 23.3 .. 67.4 36.8 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 18.9 36.0 .. 25.9 22.8 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 .. 5.6 20.9 .. 34.0 10.8 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 11.8 3.9 31.4 78.8 482.4 46.4 -38.5 -39.0 3.1 -11.4 .. ..

South Asia 5.5 18.7 20.5 21.3 31.9 53.1 29.8 -60.4 -54.5 -0.9 -16.0 6.6 ..

India 3.7 21.0 21.7 24.7 32.9 66.3 36.4 -61.2 -53.1 0.2 -18.1 4.7 ..

Pakistan 0.7 16.7 17.5 9.2 34.3 3.3 -1.3 -66.9 -63.9 -9.5 2.1 19.4 ..

Bangladesh 0.5 .. 15.5 15.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 21.9 21.8 .. 26.0 34.3 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 13.3 23.6 16.3 15.6 1.3 18.7 -61.7 -49.0 -17.8 8.0 -15.9 ..

Nigeria 0.5 .. 21.7 31.0 .. 12.8 65.5 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Import prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 19.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Indonesia 2.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Thailand 4.2 4.0 4.9 6.0 13.6 44.4 2.2 -29.9 -14.1 -0.8 0.5 0.9 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 3.9 3.3 12.0 11.7 13.7 13.9 9.8 4.3 -2.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.2

Turkey 3.2 5.2 10.1 7.9 20.0 43.3 14.5 -49.0 -36.1 5.5 -7.4 .. ..

Poland 3.6 -0.2 6.9 -1.8 0.0 2.0 -7.1 37.9 .. 9.2 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 4.0 5.4 6.5 13.4 29.7 19.2 -24.6 -17.2 -3.5 0.5 .. ..

Brazil 3.2 5.6 6.9 8.2 22.0 43.1 27.5 -30.5 -27.0 -5.6 -0.6 -2.1 ..

Mexico 11.6 3.3 4.5 5.4 8.4 16.1 12.4 -17.9 -8.4 -0.2 -0.9 -0.5 ..

Argentina 0.6 1.8 2.3 6.5 10.9 45.8 10.3 -33.2 -25.4 0.2 -2.2 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 2.7 7.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 .. 3.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 .. -3.4 13.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 5.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India 3.7 .. -10.4 6.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan 0.7 .. -10.5 -40.0 .. -100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Bangladesh 0.5 -6.2 -4.7 12.6 -5.3 -18.1 -13.4 1.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 3.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 5.9 3.7 4.3 10.6 11.1 9.1 -49.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Nigeria 0.5 .. 2.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.7 Developing countries' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis.

/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional

trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

June 16, 2009


Weights Average

Levelb 2008 2009 2009 2009 Latest


World 100.0 94.7 0.4 5.7 4.4 10.7 6.7 -7.4 -13.1 0.1 1.9 3.3 2.3

High-income countries 78.3 .. 0.0 6.1 4.7 11.8 6.8 -8.2 -12.5 0.1 1.7 3.6 2.6

Industrial countries 70.6 .. 0.1 7.0 5.0 12.9 7.2 -9.3 -13.8 0.1 1.8 3.9 2.9

United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 -1.4 4.1 3.9 7.6 5.8 -2.9 -5.6 -0.1 0.6 2.0 1.6

Japan 7.4 114.3 -6.4 -1.5 12.4 16.1 11.7 12.6 16.4 -5.1 -1.1 2.4 -0.6

Euro Area 29.5 .. 1.0 9.1 6.9 15.8 9.1 -9.1 -13.1 1.9 1.2 3.5 3.2

United Kindgom 5.6 0.6 -0.6 9.5 -5.3 0.5 -2.1 -18.5 -27.8 -1.7 3.9 4.8 5.7

Other high income 7.7 101.6 -0.4 0.5 2.7 4.3 4.1 0.5 -2.5 -0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5

Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Singapore 2.3 1.7 3.8 5.6 7.2 10.8 10.8 0.3 -5.4 -0.8 1.8 3.0 0.8

Taiwan (China) 2.1 32.9 -1.6 -0.8 4.4 8.6 7.3 0.1 -5.4 -0.2 2.0 2.5 0.8

Developing countries 21.7 112.8 1.5 4.6 3.8 7.7 6.4 -5.0 -14.8 0.0 2.5 2.5 1.4

East Asia and Pacific 7.5 101.4 3.6 5.8 4.7 7.6 5.3 -0.4 -5.8 -0.6 1.6 2.0 0.8

China 2.7 8.1 2.7 4.6 9.3 9.9 10.7 9.6 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1

Indonesia 1.1 9077.8 4.7 1.2 -4.4 -2.3 -0.4 -11.6 -19.7 0.0 7.3 6.4 2.7

Thailand 1.3 39.3 4.6 10.4 4.5 9.9 1.9 -1.4 -6.3 -1.2 0.9 2.3 1.4

Malaysia 1.4 3.7 2.8 6.7 4.2 8.0 5.4 -3.5 -9.7 -1.1 1.9 2.4 0.7

Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.0 1.5 8.3 8.1 13.5 14.0 -3.7 -23.9 2.5 2.8 4.1 2.5

Russian Federation 1.5 27.8 3.0 6.5 4.8 9.5 8.4 -5.4 -28.0 3.5 3.3 5.0 3.3

Turkey .. 1.2 -5.2 7.4 4.2 8.2 8.2 -15.5 -29.0 -2.8 6.5 3.2 1.0

Poland 0.5 3.6 2.8 11.8 18.4 28.6 30.4 -1.7 -29.1 2.4 6.2 3.5 1.1

Czech Republic 0.5 28.3 4.1 11.4 21.2 30.1 33.3 3.4 -16.8 6.5 3.1 3.4 2.8

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 135.1 1.8 2.7 3.1 7.6 7.6 -7.5 -17.5 -0.3 4.0 2.4 1.1

Brazil 1.1 2.3 13.0 10.6 10.9 20.7 19.9 -12.3 -23.9 0.1 5.0 6.6 6.0

Mexico 1.7 10.4 0.6 -0.5 0.1 3.9 6.5 -9.3 -24.5 -0.4 9.0 1.8 -1.3

Argentina 0.4 2.4 -4.9 -1.2 -1.0 -2.2 2.7 -2.4 -11.8 -3.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7

Colombia 0.3 2282.0 -1.3 12.6 7.8 16.9 11.5 -7.9 -18.6 2.0 4.2 6.6 7.6

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 152.6 -0.7 1.7 2.9 5.2 4.8 -1.3 -4.9 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 0.5

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran 0.4 6515.1 -2.4 -1.2 -1.2 1.7 -0.3 -5.0 -4.7 -1.6 -2.0 1.9 ..

Egypt 0.3 5.0 1.4 1.4 3.9 5.8 5.7 0.5 -1.5 -1.2 0.1 0.2 0.3

Algeria 0.3 72.7 0.5 4.6 8.3 9.3 11.9 5.8 -7.3 -1.4 0.1 0.9 -0.6

South Asia 1.2 105.4 -3.1 4.7 -3.5 1.5 -5.8 -15.2 -18.4 -2.7 1.3 2.1 1.9

India 0.8 44.9 -3.1 8.6 -2.2 3.6 -5.1 -16.7 -20.7 -3.8 2.3 3.1 2.8

Pakistan 0.2 58.9 -1.2 -0.9 -11.9 -5.6 -14.7 -23.3 -23.2 -1.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3

Bangladesh 0.1 60.2 -7.0 -0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0

Sri Lanka 0.1 95.0 -2.6 -6.4 2.2 1.9 3.6 3.4 -5.0 -0.2 -2.6 0.6 1.6

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 114.9 -3.5 -0.4 -3.0 1.0 0.1 -14.9 -22.4 -0.1 4.9 3.6 3.4

South Africa 0.6 7.4 -6.1 -5.0 -11.7 -8.2 -7.9 -26.3 -28.0 0.3 10.9 7.1 4.1

Nigeria 0.3 118.5 2.2 1.6 6.2 8.5 7.8 0.2 -20.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0

Memo:

OECD 73.7 .. 0.1 6.9 5.1 12.9 7.6 -9.1 -14.4 0.2 2.1 3.9 2.7

Developing excl. China 19.0 115.2 1.3 4.6 3.0 7.4 5.8 -6.8 -17.4 0.0 2.9 2.9 1.6

Developing oil exporters 2.8 159.0 1.1 1.0 -0.6 1.0 1.8 -5.2 -12.5 -0.3 2.6 2.9 1.2

Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 107.2 1.5 5.2 4.4 8.7 7.2 -4.9 -15.1 0.1 2.5 2.5 1.4

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.9 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/)

a/ An increase in the USD per LCU implies appreciation of the local currency. The aggregates computed by using trade weights and rebased to year 2000=100 (bilateral total

trade i.e. imports plus exports in 1995 constant USD).

Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by weight) of countries reported data in that time period.

b/ Average levels are LCU vis-a-vis the USD

June 16, 2009




World 4.3 4.6 3.1 2.9 4.6 4.8 5.8 3.7 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 ..

High-income countries 2.8 3.3 2.3 2.1 3.3 3.6 4.3 2.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 ..

Industrial countries 2.8 3.2 2.3 2.1 3.2 3.5 4.2 2.0 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 ..

United States -1.5 3.8 3.2 2.9 3.8 4.4 5.3 1.6 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 ..

Japan -0.6 1.4 0.2 0.1 1.4 1.4 2.2 1.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 ..

Euro Area -0.2 3.3 2.2 2.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 2.3 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.6 ..

United Kindgom 2.2 3.6 2.3 2.3 3.6 3.4 4.8 3.9 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.3 ..

Other high income .. 5.8 1.6 2.4 5.8 6.7 6.8 4.9 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.3 4.3 2.0 2.0 4.3 5.7 4.6 2.3 1.7 0.8 1.2 0.6 ..

Singapore 0.9 6.5 1.0 2.1 6.5 7.5 6.6 5.4 2.1 1.9 1.6 -0.7 ..

Taiwan (China) -1.6 3.5 0.6 1.8 3.5 4.2 4.5 1.9 0.0 -1.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1

Developing countries 9.6 9.3 6.2 6.0 9.3 9.1 11.3 9.4 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.0 ..

East Asia and Pacific 9.2 7.5 5.4 5.2 7.5 9.7 11.3 8.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.0 0.9

China 0.8 5.8 1.5 4.8 5.8 7.8 5.3 2.5 -0.6 -1.6 -1.2 -1.5 -1.4

Indonesia 6.3 10.2 13.1 5.8 10.2 10.1 12.0 11.5 7.4 6.9 6.1 5.2 3.7

Thailand -2.8 5.5 4.6 2.2 5.5 7.5 7.3 2.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.9 -3.3

Malaysia 4.1 5.4 3.6 2.0 5.4 4.9 8.4 5.9 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.0 ..

Europe and Central Asia 9.5 10.4 5.6 7.9 10.4 11.4 11.3 8.3 6.0 6.0 4.9 4.8 ..

Russian Federation 13.2 14.1 9.7 9.0 14.1 14.9 14.9 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.0 13.1 12.3

Turkey 6.0 10.4 9.6 8.8 10.4 10.3 11.7 10.9 8.4 7.7 7.9 6.1 5.2

Poland 3.4 4.3 1.1 2.4 4.3 4.5 4.8 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.3 ..

Czech Republic 2.1 6.3 2.5 2.9 6.3 6.7 6.6 4.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.4

Latin America and Caribbean 8.9 8.7 5.8 6.2 8.7 9.1 9.9 9.1 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.2

Brazil 5.8 5.7 4.2 3.6 5.7 5.6 6.3 6.2 5.8 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.2

Mexico 6.3 5.1 3.6 4.0 5.1 4.9 5.5 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.0 6.2 6.0

Argentina 5.7 8.6 10.9 8.8 8.6 9.1 8.9 7.8 6.6 6.8 6.3 5.7 5.5

Colombia 5.9 7.0 4.3 5.5 7.0 6.4 7.7 7.8 6.6 6.5 6.1 5.7 4.8

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 5.4 4.7 .. 14.1 13.6 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia .. 9.7 2.1 3.9 9.7 10.1 10.9 10.2 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. 11.6 16.8 .. 24.0 26.7 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 10.4 18.3 7.6 9.5 18.3 18.8 22.5 19.6 13.3 13.5 12.1 11.8 10.2

Algeria .. 0.1 2.3 3.6 .. 6.1 2.1 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 11.6 20.3 7.7 7.6 20.3 8.4 12.1 16.9 9.4 9.6 8.0 8.7 ..

India 8.8 8.3 6.2 6.4 8.3 7.8 9.0 10.2 9.4 9.6 8.0 8.7 ..

Pakistan 17.0 20.3 7.9 7.6 20.3 19.3 24.5 24.3 20.2 21.1 19.1 17.2 14.4

Bangladesh .. .. 6.8 8.7 .. 8.4 10.3 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 4.6 22.6 10.0 15.8 22.6 26.5 25.2 16.9 7.8 7.6 5.3 2.9 3.3


South Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Nigeria .. .. 8.5 5.5 .. 8.6 12.8 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 2.9 3.3 2.4 2.2 3.3 3.6 4.3 2.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.4 ..

Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters .. .. 10.0 5.7 .. 11.3 13.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 9.3 8.7 6.1 6.2 8.7 9.0 11.1 9.3 6.2 6.2 5.6 4.8 4.8

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ Developing country aggregates computed using median. Industrial aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. World total is GDP weighted average of developing and high

income total. Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by GDP) of countries reported data in that time period.

For developing countries, aggregate decadal growth rates are median of the decadal growth rates of the components. For high-income countries, aggregate decadal growth

rate is GDP weighted sum of decadal growth rates of components.

June 16, 2009


Weights 2008 2009 2009 2009 Latest

1995 2006 2007 2008 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr May 17-Jun

World 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High-income countriesb

82.8 3.83 4.13 2.32 2.48 2.41 1.25 0.55 0.44 0.41 0.41 0.42

Industrial countries 80.6 3.84 4.15 2.32 2.49 2.41 1.25 0.55 0.45 0.41 0.41 0.42

United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 4.96 5.02 1.93 2.09 1.96 0.52 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.17 0.18

Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.24 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.55 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30

Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 2.76 3.84 3.89 4.00 4.23 3.34 1.99 1.66 1.31 1.10 1.00

United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 4.64 5.51 4.67 5.03 5.00 3.32 1.09 0.57 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high income 2.2 3.27 3.37 2.16 2.37 2.36 1.32 0.36 0.32 0.31 0.27 ..

Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 6.50 6.52 3.13 3.58 3.50 1.17 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 ..

Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 3.40 2.68 1.15 1.09 1.03 1.01 0.50 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44

Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.56 1.96 1.93 2.10 2.14 1.40 0.18 0.14 0.13 0.10 0.10

Developing countries 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 5.86 6.71 7.18 7.47 7.43 6.34 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31

Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18

Thailand (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 3.39 3.50 3.48 3.50 3.50 3.41 2.47 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 11.64 10.27 10.87 10.48 10.97 11.88 13.00 13.00 12.89 12.21 12.00

Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 16.76 18.37 17.05 16.48 17.80 17.55 13.21 11.71 10.69 9.98 9.82

Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 4.09 4.48 5.88 5.95 6.10 6.05 4.29 3.67 3.38 3.73 3.70

Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 2.17 2.86 3.49 3.75 3.60 2.98 1.95 1.75 1.75 1.51 1.50

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 15.33 12.05 12.45 11.81 12.97 13.75 12.66 11.80 11.20 10.25 10.25

Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 7.30 7.36 7.88 7.64 8.29 8.09 7.42 7.19 5.99 5.29 5.15

Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 6.45 8.09 11.43 10.42 11.46 15.42 12.55 11.67 11.83 11.79 12.33

Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 6.27 7.94 9.68 9.67 9.80 10.02 9.13 8.42 7.41 6.53 5.70

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 5.02 4.79 .. 2.14 3.10 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran (IMF discount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 9.00 9.00 10.17 9.33 10.83 11.50 .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. ..

India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 5.97 7.04 7.90 7.50 7.59 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00

Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 8.58 9.09 10.63 10.16 11.70 11.12 11.37 11.63 12.93 12.96 11.25

Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 9.14 10.43 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.37 10.25 10.25 9.60 9.00

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. ..

South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 7.63 9.61 11.61 11.53 12.00 11.90 10.82 10.27 9.50 8.50 7.50

Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 13.25 9.13 9.85 10.08 10.08 9.75 9.75 9.75 .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.11 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported

(which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).

b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights.

June 16, 2009


Weights Average 2008 2009 2009 Latest


World .. 91 106 124 102 112 93 72 64 64 71 78 80

High-income countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States .. 89 100 112 92 98 89 68 61 61 67 71 73

Japan .. 84 107 109 77 86 71 56 51 51 55 59 61

Euro Area .. 99 121 148 117 129 103 80 67 67 76 84 86

United Kindgom .. 88 98 106 88 92 81 73 65 65 70 73 74

Other high incomea

.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) .. .. 127 152 125 136 113 81 72 72 87 104 104

Singapore .. 80 91 121 92 100 86 63 60 60 70 81 84

Taiwan (China) .. 72 80 94 85 88 62 51 .. .. .. .. ..

Developing countriesa,b

.. 156 203 275 262 268 219 160 .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacificc

.. 123 146 219 192 187 144 108 .. .. .. .. ..

China .. 118 109 240 215 202 157 118 .. .. .. .. ..

Indonesia .. 207 268 397 415 442 322 188 .. .. .. .. ..

Thailand .. 188 231 282 274 284 215 143 .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia .. 116 120 183 169 168 135 110 .. .. .. .. ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 398 495 461 535 333 216 .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation .. 525 878 1046 996 1218 662 428 .. .. .. .. ..

Turkey .. 87 119 166 139 126 124 81 .. .. .. .. ..

Poland .. 168 228 319 272 278 226 148 .. .. .. .. ..

Czech Republic .. 354 484 674 789 928 639 459 .. .. .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean .. 203 263 394 426 487 333 228 .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil .. 199 254 398 471 558 349 237 .. .. .. .. ..

Mexico .. 193 260 360 337 360 290 197 .. .. .. .. ..

Argentina .. 104 150 190 177 234 138 81 .. .. .. .. ..

Colombia .. 352 589 685 653 686 615 522 468 468 554 654 716

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 332 366 384 402 397 286 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia .. .. 527 339 340 385 309 197 193 193 232 238 244

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. 213 328 412 484 512 359 243 .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. 198 266 411 375 327 283 199 .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan .. 241 370 452 346 375 231 134 165 165 170 172 166

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. 229 312 358 283 314 261 171 174 174 189 246 247


South Africa .. 216 307 378 322 330 275 201 .. .. .. .. ..

Nigeria .. 409 450 807 868 947 801 442 259 259 289 428 412

Memo:

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


Table A.12 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002

Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.

b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&P

c/ East Asia Pacific including South Asia

Source: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong

Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Excahnge Composite Index;

All Others are IFC/S&P Indices

June 16, 2009


GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance

2008 2009 2010 2009 2010

Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD

World 1.8 -2.5 -3.1 -3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4 -177 -438 .. -168 -458 ..

High-income countries 0.7 -3.7 -4.3 -3.7 1.3 0.3 0.2 -368 -439 .. -413 -458 ..

Industrial countries 0.7 -3.7 -4.3 -3.7 1.2 0.3 0.2 -440 -439 .. -487 -458 ..

United States 1.1 -2.9 -3.2 -4.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 -452 -505 -562 -535 -501 -537

Japan -0.7 -6.1 -7.0 -6.6 1.3 1.0 -0.5 99 104 231 120 106 211

Euro Area 0.8 -3.8 -4.5 -3.0 0.1 -0.7 0.4 -79 -48 -8 -57 -94 -4

United Kindgom 0.7 -3.8 -4.0 -3.7 0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -50 -34 -35 -51 -26 -50

Other high income 1.6 -4.6 -5.9 .. 2.6 0.9 .. 72 .. .. 74 .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 2.5 -3.5 -6.7 .. 2.4 0.9 .. 23 .. .. 22 .. ..

Singapore 1.1 -7.5 -8.8 .. 3.3 1.0 .. 24 .. .. 26 .. ..

Taiwan (China) 0.1 -5.6 -6.5 .. 3.0 0.4 .. 26 .. .. 26 .. ..

Developing countries 5.8 1.6 0.9 .. 4.7 3.9 .. 191.2 0.2 .. 245.1 0.1 ..

East Asia and Pacific 8.1 5.9 4.9 .. 7.4 6.3 .. 383.5 0.4 .. 394.7 0.3 ..

China 9.0 7.5 6.5 .. 8.4 7.3 .. 347.2 0.3 437.2 358.4 0.3 472.4

Indonesia 6.1 3.1 2.4 .. 4.4 3.2 .. 0.3 .. .. 0.2 .. ..

Thailand 2.6 -3.8 -4.4 .. 2.6 1.1 .. 9.6 .. .. 8.6 .. ..

Malaysia 4.6 -2.2 -3.0 .. 3.4 1.2 .. 23.8 .. .. 24.8 .. ..

Europe and Central Asia 3.7 -3.7 -4.0 .. 1.8 1.4 .. -58.2 -0.1 .. -38.9 -0.1 ..

Russian Federation 5.6 -4.6 -5.0 .. 2.3 2.0 .. 17.5 .. .. 38.2 .. ..

Turkey 1.0 -4.6 -4.5 1.6 2.5 1.2 4.2 -10.4 .. -40.0 -19.1 .. -41.7

Poland 4.8 0.0 -0.8 3.0 1.8 1.5 3.5 -15.6 .. -29.3 -17.9 .. -31.3

Czech Republic 3.1 -2.7 -3.0 2.5 1.1 1.2 4.4 -5.5 .. -6.0 -4.8 .. -7.1

Latin America and Caribbean 4.4 -2.1 -2.8 .. 2.2 1.3 .. -58.5 -0.1 .. -53.8 -0.1 ..

Brazil 5.1 -1.0 -1.5 .. 2.9 2.7 .. -17.5 .. .. -21.6 .. ..

Mexico 1.3 -5.2 -4.4 0.4 1.8 1.2 1.8 -20.4 .. -29.5 -22.2 .. -31.5

Argentina 7.0 -1.8 -3.5 .. 1.7 0.5 .. 3.5 .. .. 3.9 .. ..

Colombia 3.7 -0.6 -2.0 .. 2.2 1.8 .. -7.3 .. .. -6.3 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.0 -0.3 -1.0 .. 4.1 3.3 .. -12.3 .. .. 7.8 .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 7.2 3.5 3.4 .. 3.8 3.1 .. -5.8 .. .. -5.1 .. ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... ..

South Asia 6.1 4.7 4.3 .. 6.2 5.7 .. -30.4 .. .. -37.1 .. ..

India 6.9 5.1 5.0 .. 6.7 6.4 .. -17.2 .. .. -22.0 .. ..

Pakistan 1.2 1.9 -0.9 .. 3.4 2.0 .. -13.2 .. .. -15.1 .. ..

Bangladesh 4.4 4.2 5.1 .. 5.0 3.6 .. .. 0.1 .. .. -0.1 ..

Sri Lanka 5.9 .. 2.5 .. .. 5.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


South Africa 3.1 0.0 -1.8 .. 3.1 3.1 .. -19.7 .. .. -21.8 .. ..

Nigeria 6.3 3.4 2.5 .. 5.2 4.4 .. -7.3 .. .. -0.7 .. ..

Memo:

OECD 0.7 -3.7 -4.3 -3.5 1.2 0.3 0.4 -504 -439 .. -561 -458 ..

Developing excl. China 4.6 -0.8 -1.5 .. 3.1 2.4 .. -156.0 -0.2 .. -113.3 -0.2 ..

Developing oil exporters 5.4 1.0 -0.5 .. 3.3 1.5 .. -20.8 .. .. 14.9 .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 5.9 1.6 1.0 .. 4.9 4.1 .. 212.0 0.2 .. 230.2 0.1 ..


Table A.13 GDP and current account forecasts(annual percent change; billions of US dollars)

Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD.

Regional Aggregates:

Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VEN

Europe and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKR

East Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THA

Middle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEM

South Asia: BGD,IND,PAK

Sub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWE

Other Aggregates:

OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USA

Industrial Countries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USA

Other High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVN

Developing Oil Exporters: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN

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