the eu agricultural outlook for arable crops and … · outlook for arable crops and biofuels....
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THE EU AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR ARABLE CROPS AND BIOFUELS
Session 7
Barthelemy LanosUnit Analysis and Outlook,DG Agriculture and Rural Development, European Commission
ARABLE CROPS
OUTLOOK 2019-2030
STAKE-HOLDERS
TradeProcessing
Retail
FARMERLand
Production
CONSUMERHEALTH
ENVIRONMENT
ETHICS
PRICEORIGIN
CONVENIENCE
EU AGRICULTURAL LAND KEEPSON REDUCING… LAND
TRADEPROCESS
PROD
CONS-CITIZEN
Land consolidationSpecialisationRotation systemsFeed demand
Main drivers
AfforestationUrbanisation
INPUTS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2019 2030
EU agricultural land (million ha)
Permanent pasture-
178
*Others: Roots & Tubers, Fruits & Vegetables, Rice, Fallow
Fodder
Cereals & protein crops
OilseedsSugar beet
-+
175
+
Others*
…WITH A MODERATEYIELD GROWTH
CONS-CITIZEN
Moderate yield increase
LAND
TRADEPROCESS
PROD
CONS-CITIZEN
INPUTSHealth
Research
Environment
Climatechange
Farming4.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0Yield (tonnes/ha)
Maize (EU-15) Soft wheatMaize (EU-N13) Sugar beet (right axis)
TIME FOR A SLIDO BREAK
Go to Slido.comEvent code #AgriOutlook
Which region in the world uses the most soya beans, in kg per capita ?
1. Latin America2. The EU3. Africa4. North America5. Asia6. The Black Sea
…WHO USES SOYA BEANS ? LAND
TRADEPROCESS
PROD
CONS-CITIZEN
INPUTS
0
50
100
150
200
250
Africa Asia Black Sea EU-28 North America Latin America
Consumption per capita (kg/capita/year)
2010 2020 2030
EU TRADE STRENGTHENSIN THE FUTURE
NET IMPORTER
NET EXPORTER
SUGAR+0.5 mt
BARLEY+0.7 mt
WHEAT+4.8 mt
SOYA BEANS-2.3 mt
MAIZE-1.4 mt
LAND
TRADEPROCESS
PROD
CONS-CITIZEN
INPUTS
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40EU net trade (million tonnes)
Soft wheat Sugar Maize Soya beans BarleyFigures represent the change compared to the average 2017-2019
…WHILE DOMESTIC MARKETIS THRIVING
FOOD• Evolution of diet• Health concerns
FEED• Dynamic demand• Locally-produced
INDUSTRIAL• Dynamic bio-economy• More advanced
biofuels
FOOD
GRAIN-BASED
PRODUCTS
PROTEINS
SUGAR
FEED
CEREALS
OILSEED MEALS
PROTEIN CROPS
INDUSTRIAL
BIOFUELS
BIOGAS
BIO ECONOMY
LAND
TRADE PROCESS
PROD
CONS-CITIZEN
INPUTS
STAKE-HOLDERS
TradeProcessing
Retail
FARMERLand
ProductionHEALTH
ENVIRONMENT
ETHICS
PRICEORIGIN
CONVENIENCE
HEALTHCONSUMER
THANK YOU !#AgriOutlook
© European Union, 2019 │ © fotoVoyager, #165807391-170054274-453281653-508212549-537698055, iStockPhoto.com
THE EU AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR ARABLE CROPS AND BIOFUELS
Session 7