The Energy (ENE) Program Keywan Riahi Program Director, Energy riahi@iiasa.ac.at

Sustainable development means overcoming several energy challenges

Energy Security

Climate Change Air Pollution Image sources: NASA, http://www.powernewsnetwork.com/white-house-releases-plan-to-cut-oil-imports-by-13-by-2025/1798/, http://wheresmyamerica.wordpress.com/2007/08/26/i-cant-see-my-america/, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2009/05/14/6142/energy-poverty-101/, http://today.uconn.edu/blog/2010/12/reclaiming-water-a-green-leap-forward/, http://te.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E0%B0%A6%E0%B0%B8%E0%B1%8D%E0%B0%A4%E0%B1%8D%E0%B0%B0%E0%B0%82:Forest_Osaka_Japan.jpg

Energy Poverty

Water

Land Use & Forests

Core Research Activities • Integrated Assessment of Climate Change (IPCC, IAMC, RCPs, SSPs)

• multi-sector, multi-GHGs, land-use competition

• Energy Policy Analysis Integration across diverse objectives

• Environment, Climate Change, Air Pollution/SLCFs, Water • Energy Access (spatial & temporal heterogeneity) • Energy Security

• Global Energy Assessment • Exploratory Research: uncertainty & risk, multi-criteria

tools, behavior, technology diffusion

Josè Goldemberg, Yong Ha Kim, H.E. Nguyen Thien, L. Gomez-Echeverri, Pavel Kabat, Hasan Mahmud, Kuntoro Mangkusubroto

Global Energy Assessment (GEA) ● 300 Authors ● 200 Reviewers ● Assessment of Major energy challenges Transformation strategies Effective policies Costs & benefits

GEA Launch Rio+20

Global Energy Transformations

• Access to energy and ecosystem services (a prerequisite for MDGs & wellbeing)

• Vigorous decarbonization for mitigating climate change

• Energy transformations require R&D and rapid technology diffusion & deployment

• Sustained energy investments are needed and would result in multiple co-benefits

Mapping of Energy Access: Distribution of Populations Without Access to Modern Energy

Source: Pachauri et al. 2013

>3 billion lack access to modern cooking energy

>1.2 billion lack access to electricity

Estimating Benefits/Impacts - Lack of Access to Modern Energy • Social costs

– Health: ~2 million premature deaths today and almost ~1 million in 2030 from household air pollution if BAU

– Time & Gender: Between 1 to 5 billion women-hours lost annually in collection and tending

• Impacts on livelihood – Employment & Productivity: Limited productive hours –

Every hour of supply likely to raise earnings by 0.5% in Indian Non-Farm rural enterprises

– Income: Limited work and business possibilities - Earnings 25% higher for Non-Farm Rural Enterprises in India with electricity access

• Environmental impacts – Local forest, land and soil degradation – Local and regional air quality – CO2 emissions if biomass is unsustainably harvested – Emissions of non-CO2 GHG and aerosols with higher GWP.

Source: Pachauri et al. 2013; Rao 2013; Pachauri & Rao 2013

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Base 2005 No new policies 2030

50% Fuel Subsidy 2030

Microfinance @15% only

2030

Microfinance @15% + 50% Fuel Subsidy

2030

Popu

latio

n D

epen

dent

on

Solid

Fuel

s in

Billi

ons

Policy Scenarios for Universal Modern Cooking Access

Fuel subsidies coupled with grants or microfinance schemes most effective

Peop

le g

aini

ng a

cces

s to

mod

ern

ener

gy c

arrie

rs

An additional 200 million without access by 2030

Subsidies alone reduce dependence by one-third

Microfinance alone not effective

Source: Pachauri et al. 2013

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

GH

G e

mis

sion

s (G

tCO

2 eq

uiv.

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 AIM-Enduse DNE21 GCAM IMAGE MERGE-ETL MESSAGE REMIND WITCH Baseline High 2030 Low 2030 Optimal

Lack of short-term reductions (2030)

Assessment of current climate policies Copenhagen & Cancun Agreements

2500 GEA-Efficiency

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Prim

ary

Ene

rgy,

EJ

per y

ear

0

500

1000

1500

2000 Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)

Fossil CCS (optional bridging technology)

Bio-CCS & negative emissions (long-term)

Phase-out of oil in the long term (necessary)

Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS

Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil

Savings Geothermal Solar Wind

The Transformation towards sustainable energy requires fundamental changes

~50% renewables by 2050

GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012)

GEA-Efficiency

Industry: 1. Retrofit of existing plants 2. Best available technology for new

investments 3. Optimization of energy & material

flows 4. Lifecycle product design &

enhanced recycling 5. Electrification incl. switch to

renewable energy

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

EJ /

yr

Residential: 1. Rapid introduction of strict

building codes 2. Accelerate retrofit rate to

3% of stock per year (x 4 improvement by 2050)

3. Improved electrical appliances

Transport: 1. Technology efficiency

(50%) 2. Reduced private

mobility (eg urban planning)

3. Infrastructure for public transport + railway freight

Energy efficiency measures and behavioral change

Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3

(e)

Stringent pollution/access/climate policies by 2030

2.6 million lives saved each year

Health Assessment / Benefits

World Emissions (2030)

GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, 2013)

Efficiency(marginal)

OilGasCoal

Electricity Transmission

Fossil Electricity

Renewable Electricity

CCS

Other conversion

Oil Gas

Coal

Electricity Transmission

Fossil ElectricityNuclear

Renewable Electricity

Other conversion

2005-2010

2050 2050

Oil

Gas

Coal

Electricity Transmission

Fossil Electricity

Nuclear

Renewable Electricity

Other conversion

Today (185 bill.)

Baseline (370 bill)

Sustainable Portfolio (407 bill.)

Investment Portfolio - China 2010 & 2050

Source: Riahi et al. (2012)

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives

Tota

l Glo

bal P

olic

y Cos

ts (2

010-

2030

)

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

CC PH

ES

All objectives fulfilled at Stringent level

At least one objective fulfilled at Intermediate level

At least one objective fulfilled at Weak level

Policy Prioritization Framework

CC – Climate ChangePH – Pollution & HealthES – Energy Security

Synergies of Meeting Multiple Energy Objectives

Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point

D. McCollum, V. Krey, K. Riahi (2011)

Only Climate Only Pollution Only Energy Security

All Three Objectives

Integrated Climate-Pollution- Security Policies

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2030 Energy Goals

●Universal Access to Modern Energy

●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement

●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy

Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

Capacity building and Policy Tools

• Energy Access to clean cooking and electricity

• Energy security, pollution/health, and climate change: multiple objectives, their synergies and trade-offs

IIASA-UNIDO-GEF: Cape Verde, 2012

ENE Scenario Databases and Community Activities

• IPCC Working Group III (AR5) • Representative Conc. Pathways (RCPs) • Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) • Energy Modeling Forum

(EMF24, EMF27, EMF28) • Global Energy Assessment (GEA) • Asian Modeling Exercise (AME) • AMPERE (EU-FP7 project) • LIMITS (EU-FP7 project) • Latin American Modeling Project (LAMP)

(in collaboration with TNT)

IPCC scenarios: Representative concentration Pathways (RCPs)

MESSAGE (IIASA)

AIM (NIES)

GCAM (PNNL) IMAGE (PBL)

van Vuuren et al, 2011; Jones et al, 2013

Uncertainty: quantifications & ranking 2oC

1. Political (delayed action) 2. Geophysical 3. Social (energy demand) 4. Technological

Rogelj, McCollum, Riahi et al, 2013

Selected Recent Reports