introduction to energy systems keywan riahi [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
Energy SystemsInteraction between:
Society-- Society-- Economy
T h l-- Technology-- Policythat shape both-- Demand-- Supplyin terms of quantity, quality, costs, impacts.
Energy Systems Analysis
in terms of quantity, quality, costs, impacts.
Definitions & SI Units• Energy: Capacity to do work• Power: Rate of energy transfer• Power: Rate of energy transfer
Ne ton (N) 1 kg m/s2 (force)• Newton (N): 1 kg m/s2 (force)• Joule (J): 1 N applied over 1 m (energy)
W tt (W) 1 J/ d ( )• Watt (W): 1 J/second (power)
• Example: 1 HP = 745 W (745 J/s) for 1 hr = 0.745 kWh
Energy Systems Analysis
Examples of Power and Energy (ranked by power ratings)( y p g )
PowerW
TimeSec’s
EnergyJ (Ws)
Solar energy to earth per year 1.8 E 17 3.2 E 7 5.5 E 24Earthquake 8 Richter scale 2.0 E 15 3.0 E 1 6.0 E 16Global energy use for 2000 1 4 E 13 3 2 E 7 4 4 E 20Global energy use for 2000 1.4 E 13 3.2 E 7 4.4 E 20Thunderstorm (kinetic energy) 1.0 E 11 1.2 E 3 1.2 E 14Space shuttle lift-off 1.2 E 10 1.2 E 2 1.4 E 12pB 747 flight Tokyo-Frankfurt 1.1 E 8 4.0 E 4 4.4 E 12Energy/day for a supermarket 2.0 E 5 4.3 E 4 8.6 E 9Daily metabolism of adult 1.0 E 2 8.6 E 4 8.6 E 6Burning a small candle 3.0 E 0 1.8 E 3 5.4 E 3
2
Energy Systems Analysis
E = exponent to basis 10, i.e. E 2 = 102 = 100
Based on Smil, 1991
Some Orders of Magnitude g(EJ = 1018 J)
5 500 000 EJ A l l i fl5,500,000 EJ Annual solar influx 1,000,000 EJ Fossil occurrences
50,000 EJ Fossil reserves500 EJ World energy use 2005500 EJ World energy use 2005<1 EJ NY city energy use/yr0 000004 EJ B 747 fli ht0.000004 EJ B-747 flight
Tokyo-Frankfurt
Energy Systems Analysis
Energy Units and Scales(Source: GEA Primer)
Energy Systems Analysis
Rough Equivalences10 Gtoe = 420 EJ1 Gtoe = 42 EJ1 Gtoe = 42 EJ1 Quad = 1 EJ1 Mt 42 PJ1 Mtoe = 42 PJ1 toe = 42 GJ1 boe = 6 GJ1 m3 gas = 40 MJ1 kWh = 4 MJ1 Btu = 1 kJ
Energy Systems Analysis
1 Btu 1 kJ
Energy Flow Characteristics• Physical: chemical, kinetic, electric,
radiant,…ad a t,• Processing depth:
primary→secondary→finalp y y• Transaction levels:
producer→producerp pproducer→consumerconsumer→consumer (future?)
• System boundaries:secondary→final→useful→service
Energy Systems Analysis
Examples of Energy
Conversions, Devices and
( t )(1st Law) Efficiencies
Source: SciAmer, 1972
Energy Systems Analysis
What means….• Primary energy: Resources as extracted from
nature (crude oil solar heat)nature (crude oil, solar heat)• Secondary energy: Processed/converted
energy (gasoline from crude oil electricityenergy (gasoline from crude oil, electricity from coal or hydropower)
• Final energy (as delivered to consumer)a e e gy (as de e ed to co su e )• Useful energy (converted by final appliances
(heat from radiator, light from bulb)( , g )• Services = actual demand: comfort,
illumination, mobility,… (units ephemeral)
Energy Systems Analysis
System Boundaries
• Energy sector: Primary→ Final (domain of supply bias)(domain of supply bias)
• Energy end-use: Final→Useful (d i f bi )(domain of consumer bias)
• Energy Integration (IRM, LC): Primary→Useful/Services
• Full Integration (IA): Whole environment g ( )(incl. “externalities”)
Energy Systems Analysis
Global Energy Flows 1990 (in Gtoe)
Crude oil Coal
Source: IIASA-WEC, 1995&1998
Energy Systems Analysis
Source: IIASA WEC, 1995&1998
Energy Flow: Coal to Light(2005)(2005)
Energy Systems Analysis
Global Energy Flows (EJ in 2005)
Energy Systems Analysis
Laws of Thermodynamics( li f )(no policy can escape from)
• 1st (conservation) Law• 2nd (entropy) Law• 2 (entropy) Law
Thermodynamically no machineThermodynamically, no machine (conversion process) operates in a closed system: i.e. energyclosed system: i.e. energy exchanges with the environment (friction losses, waste heat)
Energy Systems Analysis
( , )
Perpetuum Mobile: Impossible in a Thermodynamically Closed Systemy y y
Energy Systems Analysis
Laws• 1st (conservation) Law: In closed system: energy
can neither be created or destroyedyBUT: Energy devices generally operate in open system (→1st Law efficiency)
• 2nd (entropy) Law: General movement towards lower form values of energy ( l t i t hi h t h t l t h t)(e.g. electricty→high temp.heat→low temp.heat), or increase in ‘disorder’ (entropy); e g candle = flame→light→heat (flame→room)e.g. candle = flame→light→heat (flame→room)MIND: Efficiency depends on adequacy of energy form value for task at hand (→2nd Law efficiency)
Energy Systems Analysis
( y)
Energy Efficiency 1
1st Law efficiency: Ratio of energy output to input;Ratio of energy output to input;
Varying systems boundaries:y g yConversion (gas furnace): ~100% (gas→heat)Device (furnace+exhaust)*: 90%Device (furnace+exhaust) : 90%Final/Useful (furnace→radiator): 60-80%Total system (house heating): ~5% (→2nd Law)
*Without latent heat from condensation = LHV
Energy Systems Analysis
Without latent heat from condensation = LHVIncluding latent heat from condensation = HHV
Energy Efficiency 2
2nd Law efficiency: Minimum amount of exergy required for a particular task /exergy required for a particular task /actual exergy spent in completing the t ktask
Exergy = availability (capacity to do usefulwork) = inverse of entropy) py
Hence: Quality and adequacy mattersEnergy Systems Analysis
Hence: Quality and adequacy matters.
Examples for 2nd Law EfficiencyExergy “Quality” of HeatExergy Quality of Heat
(T – T0) / T
Home heating: outside temp = 0 oCHome heating: outside temp. 0 Cdesired indoor = 21 oC
(294K 273K)/273K 0 077 8%=> (294K-273K)/273K = 0.077 = 8%Process heat: Steam = 700 oC
outside temp. = 20 oC => (973K-293K)/973K = 0 698 = 70%
Energy Systems Analysis
> (973K 293K)/973K 0.698 70%
First and Second Law Efficiencies of Energy Conversion
Source: Gilli et al., 1995
Energy Systems Analysis
Energy Conversion Losses
%EJ
100400Primary energy
75300Final energy
33150Useful energy
<15<60Energy service
Energy Systems Analysis
WORLD-Exergy Efficiency (as percent of primary exergy)( p p y gy)
Energy Systems Analysis
Implications:Rules of thumb for engineers and policy makersg p y
• Largest leverage: Extending system’s boundary for designs and policiesfor designs and policies
• Look at exergy rather than energy alone• Largest possible efficiency gains: End-use andLargest possible efficiency gains: End use and
service efficiency, heat cascading (industrial symbiosis)BUT:
• Efficiency not all (→valuation)• Main scope outside energy engineering/policy:
Architecture, urban & transport planning, lifestyles
Energy Systems Analysis
lifestyles,….
Energy Systems Constraints: I t ti D d S lIntegration Demand - Supply
Physical• Matching form value (purpose?)• Matching spatial scales
M t hi t l l• Matching temporal scalesSocietal: Availability of:C it l• Capital
• Information • Incentives• Incentives• Policy attention
Energy Systems Analysis
Energy Constraints
• Spatial mismatch supply-demand: World trade in fuels 630 Billion $World trade in fuels ~630 Billion $ (~50% of all primary products exports)T l i t h l d d• Temporal mismatch supply-demand (load curves): Need for storage & i t ti ( it l i t i )interconnection (capital intensive)
• Magnitude mismatch supply-demand: Power densities, e.g. renewables vs. urban energy use
Energy Systems Analysis
Energy Systems Analysishttp://www.bp.com/centres/energy2002/gas/trademovement.asp#
Load Curves: Tokyo
Energy Systems Analysis
Source: Mogouro et al., 2002
Li kiLinking Space and
Time in Tokyo: yPower
Density ofDensity of Demand
Source: Mouguro et al., 2002
Energy Systems Analysis
Spatial Power Densities of Energy Production and Consumptionp
Oil fi ld
Thermalpowerplants
Oil fieldsCoal fields
High-rises
Photovoltaics
Houses
Photovoltaics
Supermarkets
Flat plate collectorsIndustry
TidalPhotovoltaics
Hydro
CitiesSteel mills,refineries
Tidal
Wind
y
Photosynthesis
Centralsolar
towers
PhotosynthesisPhotosynthesisPhotosynthesis
Source: Adapted from Smil 1991:243
Energy Systems Analysis
Tokyo – Electricity Demand S l E S lvs. Solar Energy Supply
100000kWh
10000
100000Electricity demand
1000
0000
Solar radiation
100 Solar radiation converted to electricity
10
210 1000 2000 3000
km2
Source: TEPCO & NIES, 2002
Valuation: Multicriteria overall performance
• Efficiency (energy, exergy)• Productivity (per service rendered, e.g. y (p g
value added) = Energy Intensity• Costs (money, time, information)Costs (money, time, information)• Externalities (social, environmental)
P t i t f t• Paramount importance of systems boundaries (“who pays”)
Energy Systems Analysis
Cooking Stoves Energy Efficiency and (Capital and Time) CostsEnergy Efficiency and (Capital and Time) Costs
70 80
s ($
)
y (%
)
athe
ring
60
5060
Cap
ital c
ost
Stov
e ef
ficie
ncy
Stove efficiency nute
s fo
r fue
l g40
30
40
Capital costs
S y
Min20
10
20
Time costs
Animaldung intraditionalstoves
Agriculturalwaste intraditionalstoves
Traditionalwoodstoves
Traditionalcharcoalstoves
Improvedwoodstoves
Improvedcharcoalstoves
KerosenewickstovesKerosenepressurestoves
LPGstoves
Eletricstoves
Electrichot plate
0 0
Energy Systems Analysis
stoves
Source: Adapted from OTA, 1992.
Examples of Different Costs of Energy• Supply costs (producer perspective):
$/gal to station• Consumer purchase costs (incl taxes• Consumer purchase costs (incl. taxes,
DOE perspective): $/gal from station• Direct end-use costs (consumer perspective):
h & i t f $/ lpurchase & maintenance of car + $/gal• IRM: producer + consumer costs• Neglected costs:• Neglected costs:
-- inconvenience costs: riding a small, efficient car; heating with gas ($$$) not coal ($)heating with gas ($$$), not coal ($)
-- social externalities (accidents)-- environmental externalities (pollution)
Energy Systems Analysis
environmental externalities (pollution)
Implications:R l f th b f i t d li kRules of thumb for economists and policy makers
(very rough orders of magnitude)
At wellhead: 1 $/bblBefore Prod. Gov.: 3 $/bbl
Extraction company
TUpstream (trade): 10 $/bblBefore Cons. Gov.: 30 $/bbl
Tax
TraderT
Consumer: >100 $/bblTotal energy: >300 $/bbl
Taxe.g. incl. deviceSocial
t liti gy $Society: >1000 $/bblTotal system: >3000 $/bbl
externalities(accidents, death, ..)Environmental
externalities
Energy Systems Analysis
Total system: 3000 $/bblexternalities