the emergence of macroscopic complex adaptive objects from microscopic simple random agents d...

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The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun Cohen (immunology), Hanoch Lavee (desert/ecology) H and M Levy (finance J Goldenberg (marketing), ISI Solomon BIU Shnerb, Louzoun, WARSAW Nowak, Kus PARIS Weisbuch, Vignes, Ballot ROME Miceli, Cozzi PISA Dosi The Importance of Being Discrete; Life Always Wins on the Surface

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Page 1: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents

D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.)

Henri Atlan (biology), Irun Cohen (immunology),

Hanoch Lavee (desert/ecology)

H and M Levy (finance econo),

J Goldenberg (marketing),

ISI SolomonBIU Shnerb, Louzoun, WARSAW Nowak, KusPARIS Weisbuch, Vignes, BallotROME Miceli, CozziPISA Dosi

The Importance of Being Discrete; Life Always Wins on the Surface

Page 2: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

SAME SYSTEM Reality Models

Complex ----------------------------------Trivial

Adaptive ----------------------------------Fixed dynamical law

Localized patches -----------------------Spatial Uniformity

Survival -----------------------------------Death

Discrete Individuals Continuum Density

Development -----------------------------Decay

Misfit was always assigned to the neglect of specific details.We show it was rather due to the neglect of the discreteness.

SCOTT!Rule change No Rule change

EMERGENCE OF RULE CHANGE FROM NO-RULE-CHANGE

Page 3: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

eternal agents A,

- initial uniform density a(x,t=0)=a0

- diffusion coefficient Da

- death rate µ: B

- birth rate B + A B + B + A[when at the same location with a "catalyst," A],

mortals B - initial uniform density b(x,t=0)= b0

- diffusion rate Db

Page 4: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A

Diffusion of A at rate Da

Page 5: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A

Diffusion of A at rate Da

Page 6: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A

Diffusion of A at rate Da

Page 7: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

B

Diffusion of B at rate Db

Page 8: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

B

Diffusion of B at rate Db

Page 9: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

B

Diffusion of B at rate Db

Page 10: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

B

A

A+B A+B+B; Birth of new B at rate

Page 11: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A B

A+B A+B+B; Birth of new B at rate

Page 12: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

AB

A+B A+B+B; Birth of new B at rate

Page 13: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

AB

A+B A+B+B; Birth of new B at rate

Page 14: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

ABB

A+B A+B+B; Birth of new B at rate

Page 15: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

ABB

A+B A+B+B; Birth of new B at rate

Page 16: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

ABBBB

A+B A+B+B; Birth of new B at rate

Page 17: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

ABBBB

A+B A+B+B; Birth of new B at rate

Page 18: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

B

B Death of B at rate

Page 19: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

B

B Death of B at rate

Page 20: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

B Death of B at rate

Page 21: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Interpretations in Various Fields:

- A= proteins

- B=DNA

Origins of Life:

Genetic Evolution: - Sites: various genomic configurations. - B= individuals; Jumps of B= mutations. - A= advantaged niches (evolving fitness landscape).

Immune system: - sites = shapes / strains of antigens and antibodies - B = cells, antibodies;

- A = antigen B cells that meet corresponding antigen multiply.

Page 22: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Interpretations in Various Fields:

Desert / Vegetation: B = plants,

A= water / light / nutrients

Finance:

sites= investors, investment instruments / strategies

B = wealth, capital units, shares, companies

A= profit opportunities / jobs, strategies, customers

Also gene copying on DNA chains; Internet links, etc

Page 23: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

What will happen?

Page 24: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

b (x,t) decays as

b (x,t) ~e (-+a0)

t

- B change:b.(x,t) = (-+a0)b(x,t) < 0

The naive lore:

e.g. reaction-diffusion (Partial) differential equations=>

- A density a(x,t) ao

- B reproduction rate a0

- B death rate

Page 25: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Angels and Mortals by my students

Eldad Bettelheim and Benny Lehmann

Page 26: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

-On a large enough 2 dimensional surface, the B population always grows!

, Db, < a(x,t) >, etc !

- In higher dimensions, /Da > 1-Pd

always suffices

one can prove rigorously (RG flow, Branching Random Walks Theorems)

that:

New theorem: for A death rate a : Da + a

suffices !

Page 27: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Emergence of Adaptive B islands

Example: single A

a0=1/V-

+a0-

Diffusion in fact helps

e ( - ) t =e

t e - t

Page 28: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A

Page 29: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A

B diffusion

Page 30: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A

Page 31: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A A

Page 32: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A

Page 33: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A

Page 34: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

AAA

Page 35: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

AAA

B diffusion

Page 36: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

AAA

Page 37: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

AA AA

Growth stops again when A jumps again

Page 38: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

AA AAA

Page 39: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A AA A A

Page 40: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A AA A A

Emergent Collective Dynamics:B-islands search, follow, adapt to, and exploit fortuitous fluctuations in A density.

Page 41: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

A AA A A

This is in apparent contradiction to the “fundamental laws” where

individual B don’t follow anybody

Emergent Collective Dynamics:B-islands search, follow, adapt to, and exploit fortuitous fluctuations in A density.

Page 42: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Emergent Collective Dynamics:B-islands search, follow, adapt to, and exploit fortuitous fluctuations in A density. This is in apparent contradiction to

the “fundamental laws” where individual B don’t follow anybody

Page 43: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

The strict adherence of the elementary particles A and B to the

basic fundamental laws and the emergence of complex adaptive entities with self-serving behavior do not interfere one with another.Yet they determine one another.

Emergent Collective Dynamics:B-islands search, follow, adapt to, and exploit fortuitous fluctuations in A density.

Is this a mystery? Not in the AB model where all is on the table !

This is in apparent contradiction to the “fundamental laws” where

individual B don’t follow anybody

Page 44: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Collaborations that identified and studied

systems

in biology, finance and social sciences that

•are naively non-viable (decay to extinction) when viewed macroscopically

•but perfectly viable in reality

•(and when simulated / analyzed correctly at the

microscopic individual level).

Page 45: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

- spatial patches = first self-sustaining proto-cells.even with very low protein density and very low reproduction capability and very unstable structure, self–copying DNA would have survived if earth was large enough!

Interpretations in Various Fields:

- individuals =chemical molecules,

Origins of Life:

Genetic Evolution: - Sites: various genomic configurations. - B= individuals; Jumps of B= mutations. - A= advantaged niches - emergent adaptive patches= specieswhy are there not a continuum of creatures between snails and salamanders (both are partenogenetic).

Page 46: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Ordinary miracles Michael Brooks, New Scientist magazine, May 2000<< According to John Beringer, an expert on microbial biology at the University of Bristol:

"Microbes that need oxygen will be found close to the surface of soil, and microbes that are very fastidious about oxygen concentration will be found in bands at the appropriate oxygen concentration."

Microbes concentrating on a two-dimensional resource may have been more successful than their cousins who tried exploiting a three-dimensional feast.>> 

Page 47: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Immune system: - B cells; A antigencognitive immunology : acquiring immunity by

learning antigen classes (patches)

B cells that meet antigen with complementary shape multiply. (later in detail the AIDS analysis)

Page 48: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

New strains appear and are destroyed within weeks.

Many new small strains accumulate and destroy many immune system cells. The system collapses

The strains of the first invasion are completely wiped out

REALITY

SIMULATION

Page 49: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Desert / Vegetation: - B = plants,

- A= water / light / nutrients- patches- patterns, stripes, oasesDesert <-> Patchy <-> Full cover

(contact to Judean Desert-Jerusalem mountains studies) ; Reclaim; PRL 90, 38101 (2003)

Page 50: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

s

Measurements of organic matter distribution (Lavee and Sarah)

Mediterranean; uniform 500mm

Semi-arid; patchy

Desert; uniform

200mm

Page 51: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Finance/Economics:- sites: investment instruments / strategies B = capital units, investors, shares, companies A= profit opportunities / strategies, market, customers

patches= “herds”, rallies, booms, crashes power laws, Levy stable distributions, clustered volatility, deviations from B-S

Page 52: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Polish spatial economic map since 89 (Andrzej Nowak ).

Page 53: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Polish spatial economic map since 89 (Andrzej Nowak ).

Page 54: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Polish spatial economic map since 89 (Andrzej Nowak ).

Page 55: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Stock market shock explained

Physicists model recent trading frenzy. 1 October 2002

Market makersMarket 'spikes' are seen by traders as freak events.

Physicists expect them, Thursday October 3, 2002  

9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.53750

3800

3850

3900

3950

4000

4050

4100

Page 56: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

Spatial fluctuations of b between different sitesTime fluctuations

in the total b

Exponent of distributionof individual wealth= (Prediction)Exponent of distribution of market fluctuations

M. Levy S.S

Page 57: The emergence of Macroscopic Complex Adaptive Objects from Microscopic Simple Random Agents D Mazursky (Soc. Sci., Bus. Adm.) Henri Atlan (biology), Irun

WWW DATA

WWW MODEL

GENETIC NETWORK MODEL Proteomics data

Genetic model

NODE DEGRE vs AGE

AGE