the effect of mangrove forest depletion on biodiversity in southern florida stephenie lazarus...
Post on 15-Jan-2016
218 views
TRANSCRIPT
The Effect of Mangrove The Effect of Mangrove Forest Depletion on Forest Depletion on Biodiversity in Southern Biodiversity in Southern FloridaFlorida
Stephenie Lazarus Stephenie Lazarus
Brittany Lewis Brittany Lewis
Amelia Clapp Amelia Clapp
OutlineOutline
BackgroundBackground HypothesisHypothesis MethodMethod AnalysisAnalysis DiscussionDiscussion ImplicationsImplications SolutionsSolutions ConclusionConclusion
BackgroundBackground
The Mangrove ProblemThe Mangrove Problem
The planet has lost 35% of its The planet has lost 35% of its mangrove forests over the last twenty mangrove forests over the last twenty years. years.
The rate of loss of mangroves each The rate of loss of mangroves each year tops the loss of the rainforest at year tops the loss of the rainforest at 2.1%2.1%
At the current rate of destruction all of At the current rate of destruction all of the world’s mangroves will disappear in the world’s mangroves will disappear in 50 years 50 years (Wells, 2006)(Wells, 2006)
BackgroundBackground
World Distribution of MangrovesWorld Distribution of Mangroves
(“Coastal and Marine Habitats,” 2005)
BackgroundBackground
Natural and unnatural factors Natural and unnatural factors Recent tsunami activity in south-Recent tsunami activity in south-
east Asiaeast Asia
Reasons for Mangrove DepletionReasons for Mangrove Depletion
Ongoing human Ongoing human coastal coastal development development (Stone, (Stone,
Richard, 2006).Richard, 2006).
Costal development of mangrove forest
BackgroundBackground
The American AlligatorThe American Alligator
Alligator mississippiensisAlligator mississippiensis Keystone species of Keystone species of
mangrove forestsmangrove forests
‘ ‘Alligator holes’ Alligator holes’
Estimated 1,000,000 Estimated 1,000,000 in Floridain Florida
(Mazzotti, 2006)
HypothesisHypothesis
““Current natural and Current natural and anthropogenic factors will anthropogenic factors will
deplete the mangrove forests deplete the mangrove forests and biodiversity of Southern and biodiversity of Southern
Florida due to the elimination of Florida due to the elimination of the keystone species” the keystone species”
MethodMethod
Data UsedData Used
1 acre= 4,046.8564 m^21 acre= 4,046.8564 m^2 469000 acres of Mangroves exist in Florida 469000 acres of Mangroves exist in Florida (FMRI, (FMRI,
2006)2006)
Net primary production (NPP) of swamps and Net primary production (NPP) of swamps and marshes = 9000 k cal/ m2/yr marshes = 9000 k cal/ m2/yr (Kling, 2006)(Kling, 2006) =2.22394842 =2.22394842 k cal/ acre/yrk cal/ acre/yr
Rate of mangrove loss= 2.1% Rate of mangrove loss= 2.1% (Wells, 2006)(Wells, 2006)
Average plant efficiency= 35% Average plant efficiency= 35% (Kling, 2006)(Kling, 2006)
Average American Alligator per km^2=1.6916 Average American Alligator per km^2=1.6916 (Mazzotti, 2006) = 0.00685 alligators/acre(Mazzotti, 2006) = 0.00685 alligators/acre
MethodMethod
Procedure to Test HypothesisProcedure to Test Hypothesis Construct Stella Models from given dataConstruct Stella Models from given data Determine future amount of Florida Determine future amount of Florida
mangrove forest coveragemangrove forest coverage Determine future population of American Determine future population of American
Alligator in FloridaAlligator in Florida Determine whether models support the loss Determine whether models support the loss
of mangroves coverage and elimination of of mangroves coverage and elimination of American Alligator populationAmerican Alligator population
AnalysisAnalysis
Projected Mangrove Forest AcreageProjected Mangrove Forest Acreage
Mangrove Acreage Stella Model
Mangrov e Acreage
Production Depletion
Depletion RatePlant Ef f iciency NPP
Analysis Analysis
Projected Mangrove Forest AcreageProjected Mangrove Forest Acreage
9:48 PM Sun, Dec 03, 2006
Mangrov e Acreage v s Time
Page 12006.00 2017.00 2028.00 2039.00 2050.00
Years
1:
1:
1:
0
250000
500000
1: Mangrov e Acreage
1
1
1 1
AnalysisAnalysis
American Alligator Population ModelAmerican Alligator Population ModelAssumptionsAssumptions Alligator population only effected by habitat depletion Alligator population only effected by habitat depletion
(birth rate = death rate)(birth rate = death rate) Alligators require mangrove acreage to live (0.00685 Alligators require mangrove acreage to live (0.00685
alligators can live in one acre of mangroves)alligators can live in one acre of mangroves) 3211 American Alligators exist in the 469,000 acres 3211 American Alligators exist in the 469,000 acres
mangroves analyzedmangroves analyzed Because alligators are the keystone species of the Because alligators are the keystone species of the
southern Florida mangrove ecosystem the elimination of southern Florida mangrove ecosystem the elimination of alligators will cause the extinction of other species and alligators will cause the extinction of other species and the decline of biodiversitythe decline of biodiversity
AnalysisAnalysis
American Alligator Population ModelAmerican Alligator Population Model
Mangrove Acreage
Production Depletion
Depletion RatePlant Efficiency NPP
American Alligators
Births Deaths
Birth Rate
Natural Death Rate
Alligator Depletion Rate
AnalysisAnalysis
American Alligator Population ModelAmerican Alligator Population ModelProjected American Alligator Population with Decline of
Mangrove Forests
4:30 PM Tue, Dec 05, 2006
American Alligators vs Time
Page 12006.00 2017.00 2028.00 2039.00 2050.00
Years
1:
1:
1:
0
2000
4000
1: American Alligators
1
1 1 1
DiscussionDiscussion
Projected Mangrove Forest Acreage
9:48 PM Sun, Dec 03, 2006
Mangrov e Acreage v s Time
Page 12006.00 2017.00 2028.00 2039.00 2050.00
Years
1:
1:
1:
0
250000
500000
1: Mangrov e Acreage
1
1
1 1
Mangrove acreage halved by 2009
Mangrove acreage crash by 2032
Acreage so minimal significant re-growth almost
impossible
DiscussionDiscussion
Projected American Alligator Population with Decline of Mangrove Forests
4:37 PM Tue, Dec 05, 2006
Alligators and Mangrove Acreage vs Time
Page 12006.00 2017.00 2028.00 2039.00 2050.00
Years
1:
1:
1:
2:
2:
2:
0
2000
4000
0
250000
500000
1: American Alligators 2: Mangrove Acreage
1
1 1 1
2
22 2
2030 mangrove acreage
dips below 2000
Alligator population
levels off at 218
DiscussionDiscussion
Effect Mangrove Forest Acreage on Biodiversity
If trends continue the mangrove cover in If trends continue the mangrove cover in southern Florida will be depleted beyond southern Florida will be depleted beyond natural rebound abilitynatural rebound ability
This loss of habitat results in an immense This loss of habitat results in an immense reduction of the American Alligatorreduction of the American Alligator
The reduction of the American Alligator will The reduction of the American Alligator will cause the collapse of biodiversity in the cause the collapse of biodiversity in the southern Florida mangrove ecosystem (loss southern Florida mangrove ecosystem (loss of ‘alligator holes’ = loss of habitat)of ‘alligator holes’ = loss of habitat)
ImplicationsImplications
The loss of mangroves in southern Florida would The loss of mangroves in southern Florida would have a negative effect on both the sport and have a negative effect on both the sport and commercial fishing industries since many fish commercial fishing industries since many fish either live in or use the mangrove forest as a either live in or use the mangrove forest as a nursery. nursery.
Natural buffering capacity of mangroves will Natural buffering capacity of mangroves will disappear resulting in loss of protection from disappear resulting in loss of protection from natural disastersnatural disasters
Numerous endangered/ threatened species Numerous endangered/ threatened species currently relying on mangroves will likely go currently relying on mangroves will likely go extinctextinct
Ecotourism would decline resulting in a loss of Ecotourism would decline resulting in a loss of income in the economy of southern Floridaincome in the economy of southern Florida
SolutionsSolutions Mangrove Propagule
Collect and plant propagules Collect and plant propagules Re-growth usually quickRe-growth usually quickRehabilitated mangroves lack Rehabilitated mangroves lack the biodiversity they once had the biodiversity they once had (Wells, 2006)(Wells, 2006) Human conservation and Human conservation and education efforts (prevention is education efforts (prevention is better than compensation)better than compensation)
Currently many organizations implement Currently many organizations implement mapping and monitoring programsmapping and monitoring programs (Vaiphasa, Skidmore, (Vaiphasa, Skidmore,
and de Boer, 2006)and de Boer, 2006)
ConclusionConclusion
RecapRecap
Mangrove forests in southern Florida projected Mangrove forests in southern Florida projected to crash by 2032to crash by 2032
Loss of mangrove acreage will result in the Loss of mangrove acreage will result in the population crash of the keystone species in the population crash of the keystone species in the southern Florida ecosystemsouthern Florida ecosystem
A loss of the keystone species results in the A loss of the keystone species results in the loss of biodiversityloss of biodiversity
Our analysis affirms our hypothesisOur analysis affirms our hypothesis
ConclusionConclusion
Take Home MessageTake Home Message
“Southern Florida’s Mangrove ecosystem is in
serious danger, but steps to preserve these mangroves
still can be taken!”