The Economy Today: What our measures tell us about

the current recession

Keith HallCommissioner

Bureau of Labor Statistics

March 05, 2010

Civilian unemployment rate,1990-2010

Seasonally adjusted, percent

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007.SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, 2010.

2

Unemployment rate = 9.7% in February 2010

3

4

5

Current Indicators

8

9

10

11

Industries

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000-2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, March 5, 2010.

Notes: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in Dec. 2007. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.

Over-the-year percent change

Seasonally adjusted

Production Employees

Percent change: 2.5

All Employees

Percent Change: 1.9

in average hourly earnings

Household Survey

Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational attainment, 1992-2010

Seasonally adjusted, percent

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007.SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, 2010.

21

Bachelor's degree and higher

Some college or associate degree

High school graduates, no college

Less than a high school diploma

Unemployment rates for whites, blacks or African Americans, and persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, 1990-2010

Seasonally adjusted, percent

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007.SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, 2010.

22

Whites

Hispanic or Latino ethnicity

Blacks or African Americans

Alternative measures of labor underutilization, 1994-2010

Seasonally adjusted, percent

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007.SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, 2010.

23

U-3 Unemployment rateU-2

U-1

U-4

U-5

U-6

Unemployment rate and long-term unemployment rate, 1994-2010

Seasonally adjusted, percent

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). NBER has not yet determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March 5, 2010.

24

Unemployment rate

Long-term unemployment rate

Long term unemployment rate =

4.0% in February 2010

Comparisons with Prior Recessions

26

Recession Stages

28

29SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, March 5, 2010.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, March 5, 2010. 30

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, March 5, 2010. 31

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, March 5, 2010.

32** The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) denoted recessions starting in January 1980 and July 1981.