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1The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

Last week’s Conference Championship Issue of The Don Best Weekly Insider was another chance for our experts to strut their stuff, in both college and pro football. For the second straight week, the Best Bets were the highest graded selections, hitting at a 9-6 clip in college football, and 10-5 rate in the NFL, good for 63.3% overall. These results far outweighed both the remaining selections and the consensus efforts.

Over the course of the last two weeks, our experts have now combined for a very impressive 42-18 (70%) record on Best Bets. What’s more, we have now reached a point where Don Best Robert (in NFL) is the only one of our experts to be below the .500 mark in that criteria. The competition has really picked up internally too, and hopefully you have been following along and have become of the beneficiaries of their focused effort.

Enough about records and what has already happened though, as we have now officially reached one of the best times of the year for any football fan…college football bowl season, and it’s time to start looking ahead at the games and what is to come in The Don Best Weekly Insider over the next few weeks.

Don Best will be offering up a full page in-depth matchup in the Weekly Insider for each of the 35 bowl games over the next few weeks. In order to avoid information overload, we have decided to stick with our normal schedule of covering games on a Wednesday thru Tuesday basis. This should also help our experts stay sharp, as there are things that can develop between now and game time in the various contests that can change a handicappers’ thinking. Perhaps one conference is overmatched in bowl play, or a suspension occurs, etc.

In order to show what our bowl game coverage will entail, we’ve given it a practice run on this week’s Army-Navy game. You’ll find that complete breakdown on page 16. The bowl games kickoff on DEC. 17 and the first four games will be covered in NEXT WEEK’s issue.

The NFL season is also winding down and we’ve dedicated the feature article in this week’s issue to looking at the Super Bowl odds in the NFC & AFC.

We hope you enjoy the issue and are looking forward to bowl season as much as everyone here at Don Best. Thanks again for your support of the website and the Don Best Weekly Insider!

offIcIal Don BesT roTaTIon scheDule ..........................................2

Don BesT exclusIve nfl pIcks ........4

super BoWl oDDs & scheDulIng ...................................5

A look at league contenders and the road ahead

nfl sTrengTh raTIngs .....................6

nfl heaD-To-heaD serIes BreakDoWn .......................................7

Top Weekly nfl TrenDs ...................8

nfl maTchups...................................9

7 fooTBall lIne moves BeTTors musT knoW ..................................... 15

Early lines NFL and college footballlines, what bettors are thinking andedges as the line moves

army vs navy ................................. 16

The Don BestWeeklyInsider

The Don BestWeeklyInsider

Copyright© 1995-2011. All Rights Reserved. www.DonBest.com is owned by Dodgeball Ventures, Inc. U.S. Citizens Please Note: The information contained at this website is for news and entertainment purposes only. Any use of this information in violation of federal, state, provincial or local laws is strictly prohibited. Copyright@2011-2012 Don Best Sports Inc All Right Reserved

key

ATS - AGAINST THE SPREAD

C - CENTRAL TIME

CS - CURRENT SEASON

DB - DON BEST

E - EASTERN TIME

FD - FIRST DOWNS

FG - FIELD GOAL

H2H - HEAD-TO-HEAD

L# - LAST NUMBER OF

GAMES/YEARS

P - PACIFIC TIME

PCT - PERCENTAGE

k

PDIF - POINT DIFFERENTIAL

PPG - POINTS PER GAME

PROJ - PROJECTION

ROI - RETURN ON

INVESTMENT

RTG - RATING

STRG - STRENGTH

SU - STRAIGHT UP

TD - TOUCHDOWN

TOD - TURNOVER

DIFFERENTIAL

YPPT - YARDS PER POINT

The Don Best Weekly Insider

2 The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com

of ficial Don Best rotation schedule of ficial Don Best rotation schedule

101 CLEVELAND 39.5 38.5P: 5:25PM C: 7:25PM E: 8:25PM NFL

102 PITTSBURGH -13.5 -13.5 203 UTAH ST -3 -3P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM ESPN

204 OHIO 58 58

103 ARMY 57 56.5 205 LA LAFAYETTE 60 60P: 11:30AM C: 1:30PM E: 2:30PM CBS P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN

104 NAVY -7 -7 206 SAN DIEGO ST -5.5 -5

105 INDIANAPOLIS 41 40.5P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 207 FLA INTERNATIONAL -4.5 -4

106 BALTIMORE -16 -16 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN107 HOUSTON 37.5 37.5 208 MARSHALL 50 50

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 108 CINCINNATI -3 -3109 OAKLAND 55 53.5

P: 1:15PM C: 3:15PM E: 4:15PM 110 GREEN BAY -12 -10.5 209 LOUISIANA TECH 55.5 55.5111 KANSAS CITY 37 36 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 210 TCU -11 -11112 NY JETS -9.5 -9113 MINNESOTA 45.5 45.5

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 114 DETROIT -7 -8115 NEW ORLEANS -4.5 -3.5 211 ARIZONA ST 65 67

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN116 TENNESSEE 48 48.5 212 BOISE ST -11.5 -13117 PHILADELPHIA 45 45

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 118 MIAMI -3 -3119 NEW ENGLAND -8.5 -7.5

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 213 NEVADA - -120 WASHINGTON 48 47.5 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN121 ATLANTA -3 -3 214 SOUTHERN MISS - -

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 122 CAROLINA 48.5 48.5123 TAMPA BAY -1 -1

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 124 JACKSONVILLE 36.5 36.5 215 NORTH CAROLINA 53.5 53.5125 SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 -3.5 P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN2

P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM 216 MISSOURI -3.5 -4126 ARIZONA 40.5 39.5127 CHICAGO 36 36

P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM 128 DENVER -4 -3.5129 BUFFALO 47 47 217 W MICHIGAN 60 60

P: 1:15PM C: 3:15PM E: 4:15PM P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM ESPN130 SAN DIEGO -4.5 -6 218 PURDUE -2.5 -2131 NY GIANTS 49.5 49

P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC132 DALLAS -3.5 -3 219 LOUISVILLE 45.5 45.5

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPNmonDay, December 12, 2011 220 NC STATE -1.5 -1.5

133 ST LOUIS 39.5 39.5P: 5:35PM C: 7:35PM E: 8:35PM ESPN

134 SEATTLE -6.5 -6.5

221 TOLEDO -3 -3P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM ESPN

222 AIR FORCE 71 71

201 TEMPLE -7.5 -7 223 CALIFORNIA 47 48P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM ESPN P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN

202 WYOMING 46.5 47 224 TEXAS -3 -4

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WeDnesDay, DecemBer 28, 2011 mIlITary BoWl

rfk sTaDIum - WashIngTon D.c.

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TuesDay, DecemBer 27, 2011 lITTle caesars BoWl

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monDay, DecemBer 26, 2011

famous IDaho poTaTo BoWl Bronco sTaDIum - BoIse, ID

NFL WEEK 14 continuedsunDay, December 11, 2011

TuesDay, DecemBer 20, 2011 Beef o' BraDy's sT.peTersBurg BoWl

neW orleans BoWl superDome - neW orleans, la

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 15feDex fIelD lanDover, mD

saTurDay, DecemBer 10, 2011

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NFL WEEK 14 ThursDay, DecemBer 8, 2011

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES continued saTurDay, December 17, 2011

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WeDnesDay, DecemBer 21, 2011 poInseTTIa BoWl

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ThursDay, DecemBer 22, 2011 maaco las vegas BoWl



of ficial Don Best rotation schedule of ficial Don Best rotation schedule

225 NOTRE DAME 48 48 249 MICHIGAN ST 51 52P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ABC

226 FLORIDA ST -3 -3 250 GEORGIA -3 -3

227 WASHINGTON 76.5 78 251 NEBRASKA 48 48P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN

228 BAYLOR -8.5 -9 252 SOUTH CAROLINA -1 -1

253 FLORIDA -1 -1.5P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN2

229 TULSA 55.5 55.5 254 OHIO ST 43 43P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN

230 BYU PK -2.5255 WISCONSIN 72 72

P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN231 RUTGERS -2 -2 256 OREGON -4.5 -6.5

P: 12:20PM C: 2:20PM E: 3:20PM ESPN232 IOWA ST 44.5 44.5

257 STANFORD 76 75P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN

233 WAKE FOREST 48 48 258 OKLAHOMA ST -3 -3.5P: 3:40PM C: 5:40PM E: 6:40PM ESPN

234 MISSISSIPPI ST -6.5 -6.5

235 IOWA 58 58 259 MICHIGAN -1 -2P: 7:00PM C: 9:00PM E: 10:00PM ESPN P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN

236 OKLAHOMA -15.5 -15.5 260 VIRGINIA TECH 51 51.5

237 TEXAS A&M -10 -9.5 261 WEST VIRGINIA 60 60.5P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN

238 NORTHWESTERN 65 65 262 CLEMSON PK -3

239 UTAH 51 50.5P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM CBS

240 GEORGIA TECH -3 -3 263 KANSAS ST 64 64P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM FOX

264 ARKANSAS -7.5 -7241 UCLA 47 46.5

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN242 ILLINOIS -3 -3

265 SMU 48.5 48.5243 CINCINNATI 49.5 49.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC 266 PITTSBURGH -5.5 -5.5244 VANDERBILT -1.5 -3

245 VIRGINIA 48.5 48.5P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ESPN 267 ARKANSAS ST -1 -1

246 AUBURN -1 -1 P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN268 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 62 62

247 PENN ST 57.5 57.5P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNU 269 ALABAMA 39 39

248 HOUSTON -7 -6 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN270 LSU -1 PK

superDome - neW orleans, la

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sunDay, January 8, 2012 go DaDDy.com BoWl

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saTurDay, January 7, 2012 compass BoWl

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coWBoys sTaDIum - arlIngTon, Tx

sun BoWl sun BoWl sTaDIum - el paso, Tx

fIghT hunger BoWl aT&T park - san francIsco, ca

WeDnesDay, January 4, 2012 orange BoWl

sun lIfe sTaDIum - mIamI, fl

frIDay, January 6, 2012 coTTon BoWl

musIc cITy BoWl lp fIelD - nashvIlle, Tn

saTurDay, DecemBer 31, 2011 meInke car care Texas BoWl

relIanT sTaDIum - housTon, Tx

TuesDay, January 3, 2012 sugar BoWl

superDome - neW orleans, la InsIghT BoWl

sun DevIl sTaDIum - Tempe, aZ

rose BoWl - pasaDena, ca pInsTrIpe BoWl

yankee sTaDIum - Bronx, ny

fIesTa BoWl unIversITy sTaDIum - glenDale, aZ

everBank fIelD - JacksonvIlle, fl frIDay, DecemBer 30, 2011 armeD forces BoWl

geralD forD sTaDIum - Dallas, Tx

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capITal one BoWl cITrus BoWl sTaDIum - orlanDo, fl

alamo BoWl alamoDome - san anTonIo, Tx

gaTor BoWl

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES continued COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES continued ThursDay, DecemBer 29, 2011

champs sporTs BoWl cITrus BoWl sTaDIum - orlanDo, fl

monDay, January 2, 2012 ouTBack BoWl

raymonD James sTaDIum - Tampa fl



Don Best nfl exclusive picks

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OVERALL RECORD (LAST WEEK)

71-56-3, 56% (2-8)

60-67-3, 47% (4-6)

71-56-3, 56% (6-4)

69-58-3, 54% (4-6)

67-60-3, 53% (5-5)

74-53-3, 58% (4-6)

BEST BET RECORD (LAST WEEK)

20-16-3, 56% (1-2)

17-21-1, 45% (3-0)

21-17-1, 55% (2-1)

20-18-1, 53% (1-2)

25-12-2, 68% (3-0)

(109) OAKLAND at (110) GREEN BAY -10.5 Green Bay* Oakland* Green Bay Green Bay* Oakland Green Bay

(109) OAKLAND at (110) GREEN BAY - Total 53.5 UNDER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER

(111) KANSAS CITY at (112) NY JETS -9 NY Jets NY Jets NY Jets* Kansas City* NY Jets NY Jets

(111) KANSAS CITY at (112) NY JETS - Total 36 OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER

(121) ATLANTA at (122) CAROLINA +3 Atlanta Carolina* Atlanta* Carolina Atlanta* Atlanta

(121) ATLANTA at (122) CAROLINA - Total 48.5 UNDER OVER UNDER OVER UNDER* UNDER

(125) SAN FRANCISCO at (126) ARIZONA +3.5 San Francisco* Arizona San Francisco Arizona Arizona Arizona

(125) SAN FRANCISCO at (126) ARIZONA - Total 39.5 UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER* UNDER UNDER

(131) NY GIANTS at (132) DALLAS -3 Dallas* NY Giants* Dallas* Dallas Dallas* Dallas

(131) NY GIANTS at (132) DALLAS - Total 49 OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

Don BesT JIm’s TakeNY Giants at DallasWhich team is in worse shape at this point, the Giants or the Cowboys? I would lean towards the former, as Tom Coughlin’s team has dropped its L4 games and has a history of melting down in the latter part of the season. Meanwhile, Dallas, minus a few mental errors this season, could realistically be 9-3 at this point and usually is one of the best teams around in December with Tony Romo under center. The Cowboys are the better team offensively and defensively right now and are playing at home.

Don BesT roBerT’s TakeOakland at Green BayOakland faces what looks like a monumental task when it heads to Lambeau Field on Sunday to take on the unbeaten Packers. The Raiders looked awful at Miami in losing by 20 points, but I expect them to rebound nicely here this week as 11-point underdogs behind a strong running game and the fact that Green Bay looked human last week. Call it gut feeling, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game come down to a last second field goal going either way.

Don BesT Bryan’s TakeKansas City at NY JetsThe Chiefs head out on the road again after beating the injury riddled Bears 10-3, snapping a four-game losing skid. The Jets will be looking to win their third straight. The Chiefs offense continues to be unimpressive averaging only 7 PPG in their last 5 games. The Jet defense should continue to keep the point total very low. In fact, a shutout would certainly not surprise this Jets’ backer. New York’s offense is also starting to roll and should match up well here. Look for the Jets to pull away in the second half and cover this one.

Don BesT Jason’s TakeOakland at Green BayIt seems as though Green Bay is not getting the same type of respect from oddsmakers that previous undefeated teams at this point in the season had. For example, in their 13th game, the 2007 Patriots were 11-point favorites over a respected Pittsburgh team that was 9-3 at the time. These Packers, who match up with any of the recent powerhouses in the NFL offensively, are only 10.5-point favorites to an Oakland team that is being outscored by the opposition and yields 373 yards per game defensively, 26th in the NFL. The Raiders have not found offensive balance either the L3 week without Darren McFadden. Simply put, how does Oakland keep up with a Green Bay team that scores 39.0 PPG at home? Answer is, they can’t, don’t be afraid to lay the double-digits.

Don BesT paul’s TakeAtlanta at CarolinaIn the NFC South, it’s time for a history lesson. In Atlanta’s 16 visits to Carolina, the UNDER has been the right play 13 times. The Falcons’ offense has not been as explosive of late and is 8-0 UNDER off three or more consecutive times of falling below the oddsmakers figure. The Panthers have a track record of sliding below the number at 22-6 UNDER in home games after two or more SU wins. Take the under.

Week 14nfl * = BEST BET

Don Best nfl exclusive picks


With exactly one quarter of the 2011 regular season to go in the NFL, now is a good time to reevaluate the potential prospects of each team that will have a chance to make the playoffs. Some of the fringe teams will be greatly affected by the remaining schedule and fit former Indianapolis head coach and current Coors Light spokesperson, Jim Mora’s previous view. “Playoffs! We’re not worried about the playoffs!”

Here is a look at each contender’s Super Bowl odds and what they will have to maneuver thru the rest of the regular season.

nfc picture of super Bowl oddsGreen Bay +150Easily the odds on favorite to return and defend their Super Bowl title, though the Packers defense has to be a growing concern. Every reason to believe Green Bay should be the third team in NFL history to go unbeaten with three home games against Oakland, Chicago and Detroit and at Kansas City.

San Francisco +800The greatest concern for the 49ers is keeping their edge, having wrapped up NFC West. Playing three division road games and hosting Pittsburgh should help.

New Orleans +800This could be the best value wager in the NFC, with an offense to match Green Bay and a better defense. The Saints only job is to hold down the No. 3 spot in the conference and playing at Minnesota and having Atlanta and Carolina in the Big Easy is comforting.

Dallas +1200Will somebody please take control of the NFC East? Dallas has covered one game since Oct. 23, not exactly inspiring confidence. In all likelihood, it will come down to the outcome of the two games with the Giants, if the Cowboys are to make the playoffs.

Detroit +4000The NFL’s dumbest team should be in tournament if they win both home games (Minnesota and San Diego) and at Oakland.

Atlanta +4000Off their loss to Houston, this week’s game at Carolina is very important for Atlanta. A victory against the Panthers, coupled with home contests with Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, would take the pressure off having to win at New Orleans.

Chicago +5000With each passing Sunday, the Bears playoff chances diminish, as their only true offensive weapons Jay Cutler and Matt Forte are on the shelf. With Chicago playing three of last four games away from the Windy City, the Bears are in a precarious situation.

New York Giants +6000The Giants say they are sick of hearing about second half collapses. Being 0-4 this season doesn’t show they are ready to change their ways. A 4-0 finish sends them to playoffs, but 3-1 could work as long as they beat Dallas twice and Washington.

afc picture of super Bowl oddsNew England +450The Patriots have schedule-friendly with games at Washington and Denver and home matchups with division partners Miami and Buffalo. New England should finish 4-0, since none of the four remaining teams has a passing game that could hurt their fragile defense.

Baltimore +700The pressure is on Baltimore to keep winning and any slip up could place them on the road for the commencement of the post-season. At San Diego and season finale at Cincinnati, pose the greatest threats to riding a seven-game winning streak into the AFC tourney.

Pittsburgh +900Facing Cleveland twice and St. Louis at home, the Steelers only potential stumbling block is at San Francisco in Week 15. Similar to New Orleans, might be the best value bet because they know how to win in January.

Houston +1500The hottest team in the AFC and if Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson were available, could make a case Houston is the team to beat in the AFC. The most important aspect for the Texans is to keep winning, since they could get a first round bye and a home game.

Denver +2500If Denver wins the AFC West; John Fox is coach of the year, because Jim Harbaugh at least had underachieving but talented players in Frisco. With three home games at altitude (Chicago, New England and Kansas City) and a trip to Buffalo, Tebow and friends might do it.

New York Jets +2500Destiny is in the Jets hands, but how do they handle it? Kansas City is no longer a sure win. Impossible to assume the Eagles and Dolphins are guaranteed wins on the road. Week 16 meeting with the Giants in New Jersey is looking HUGE for two desperate teams.

Oakland +3000One of only three playoff contending teams that allowed more points than they have scored and Oakland has permitted the most points of the AFC squads in contention. With contests at Green Bay and at Kansas City and home affairs with Detroit and San Diego, difficult to imagine better than 2-2 record.

Tennessee + 5000Nice work by first-year coach Mike Munchak keeping this team afloat. A 9-7 record probably will not work in the AFC, making this week against New Orleans and season-closer at Houston must wins.

Cincinnati +6000The Bengals are vastly improved in 2011, but a real long shot to make the playoffs with four conference defeats among its five losses. Cincinnati should win at St. Louis and would figure to have to sweep Houston, Arizona and Baltimore in The Jungle to have a chance.

super Bowl odds &scheduling

super Bowl odds &scheduling


Don Best has developed four different types of time-tested strength ratings for use in The Don Best Weekly Insider. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The POWER RATINGS columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The EFFECTIVE STRENGTH (Effective Strg) RATINGS quantify a team’s performance against varied schedule strengths. The SIMULATION is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the BETTORS’ RATINGS are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you.Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

DB PowerRatings EffectiveStrg Simulation Bettors’Ratings#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?101 CLEVELAND 38.5 17 15 8 UNDER 16 102 PITTSBURGH -13.5 27 -13.5 25 24 27 105 INDIANAPOLIS 40.5 11 15 OVER 8 14 106 BALTIMORE -16 27 -19.5 31 36 BAL 29 107 HOUSTON 37.5 27 HOU 24 OVER 25 HOU 21 OVER108 CINCINNATI -3 20 3.5 23 20 OVER 23 109 OAKLAND 53.5 22 20 21 OVER 19 UNDER110 GREEN BAY -10.5 33 -14.5 30 39 GB 29 111 KANSAS CITY 36 16 15 11 14 OVER112 NY JETS -9 24 -11.5 25 26 NYJ 28 NYJ 113 MINNESOTA 45.5 18 19 18 OVER 18 114 DETROIT -8 22 -7.5 29 35 DET 26 115 NEW ORLEANS -3.5 27 24 28 23 116 TENNESSEE 48.5 21 2.5 24 24 23 117 PHILADELPHIA 45 20 19 17 22 118 MIAMI -3 22 -5.5 24 24 23 119 NEW ENGLAND -7.5 28 24 27 25 120 WASHINGTON 47.5 16 8.5 21 WAS 18 19 121 ATLANTA -3 24 22 25 23 UNDER122 CAROLINA 48.5 20 0.5 23 23 20 123 TAMPA BAY -1 18 16 12 UNDER 19 124 JACKSONVILLE 36.5 16 -1.5 20 JAC 18 JAC 21 125 SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 26 22 24 SF 23 126 ARIZONA 39.5 19 3.5 19 13 20 127 CHICAGO 36 22 21 OVER 23 CHI 19 128 DENVER -3.5 20 -1.5 21 20 OVER 20 129 BUFFALO 47 17 22 24 OVER 21 130 SAN DIEGO -6 21 -7.5 25 27 26 131 NY GIANTS 49 23 21 21 22 132 DALLAS -3 23 -3.5 26 30 DAL 25 133 ST LOUIS 39.5 14 15 9 UNDER 18 134 SEATTLE -6.5 16 -5.5 23 23 SEA 23

nfl strength ratings nfl strength ratings


For every issue of the Don Best Weekly Insider this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming pro football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in official Don Best Schedule Rotation order.

(101) CLEVELAND at (102) PITTSBURGHCleveland and Pittsburgh will meet twice in the season’s last four weeks, which should be good for the Steelers’ playoff positioning, since they are on a 14-1 SU & 10-4-1 ATS run versus the Browns. Cleveland’s only win in that stretch came in December ’09, at home. OVER the total is 8-3-1 in the L12 games of this AFC North rivalry.

(105) INDIANAPOLIS at (106) BALTIMOREBaltimore will be looking to snap an 8-game losing streak at the hands of the Colts when the teams square off on Sunday. In all likelihood that will happen, but Indy still has a shot at extending its 7-game ATS streak. In the four most recent games between these teams in Baltimore, the Colts are 4-0 SU & ATS, holding the Ravens to 12 PPG. UNDER the total has converted in seven of the L8 overall games of this series.

(107) HOUSTON at (108) CINCINNATIHouston and Cincinnati have met three times since ’05, and the Texans hold a 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS edge. In the two most recent games, one in each city, the Texans put up 63 points while holding the Bengals to 23. All three of those games since ’05 went UNDER the total.

(109) OAKLAND at (110) GREEN BAYDating back to 1990, the Packers are a perfect 5-0 against the Raiders’ franchise, while going 4-1 ATS. In fact, the last time that the Raiders beat Green Bay was back in ’87, when they were in Los Angeles. The secret to the Packers’ winning streak against the Raiders has been defense, as they’ve yielded just 10.8 PPG during the 5-game stretch.

(111) KANSAS CITY at (112) NY JETSThe Jets have won back-to-back games over Kansas City, but the Chiefs will be riding a 4-game ATS winning streak into the teams’ Sunday contest. Four of these teams’ L5 games have been in New York, and while the Jets are 3-1 SU, the Chiefs own the 3-1 ATS edge. Road teams are 5-2 ATS overall in this series since ’92.

(113) MINNESOTA at (114) DETROITDetroit’s 26-23 win in Minnesota in September snapped a string of six straight games between these NFC North rivals going UNDER the total. It was also the second straight win for the Lions in the series, after the Vikings had won the prior six. Favorites are on a 3-0-2 ATS run in the L5.

(115) NEW ORLEANS at (116) TENNESSEEThe year 1993 was the last time that the Saints beat the Tennessee Titans franchise, and in fact, at that time they were the Houston Oilers. Since then, the Oilers/Titans are 4-0 SU &

3-0-1 ATS versus New Orleans, including a 31-14 decision in the most recent meeting in ’07. OVER the total is 3-1-1 in L5 of this inter-conference set.

(117) PHILADELPHIA at (118) MIAMIPhiladelphia rides a 4-game ATS winning streak versus the Dolphins into Sunday’s NFC-AFC clash. The Eagles are 3-1 SU in that span which dates back to ’96, including a 34-27 win in their last visit to South Beach in December ’03.

(119) NEW ENGLAND at (120) WASHINGTONWashington happened to run into the New England train back in 2007 and paid the price, getting spanked 52-7 as 14.5-point underdogs in Foxboro. Prior to that, the Redskins had beaten the Patriots six straight times in head-to-head play. New England has only played in D.C. twice previously, losing in ’81 & ’03 by a total of 5 points.

(121) ATLANTA at (122) CAROLINAAtlanta has scored exactly 31 points in three straight games versus Carolina, coming up with wins and spread covers in all three outings. In fact, the Falcons are on a nice run of 5-1 SU & ATS versus their NFC South rivals. Nine of the L11 games between these teams in Carolina went UNDER the total.

(123) TAMPA BAY at (124) JACKSONVILLEIn-state foes Tampa Bay and Jacksonville meet regularly in preseason action but have collided only four times previously in regular play. The Jaguars own a 3-1 SU & ATS edge in the series, with the only loss coming in the inaugural game between the teams in ’96. Underdogs beat the Vegas number in all four prior games.

(125) SAN FRANCISCO at (126) ARIZONAWith its win over Arizona three weeks ago, the 49ers pushed their outright winning streak over Arizona to five games and their ATS covering streak to six. The Cardinals’ last win in the series was back in 2008 at home. UNDER the total is 4-1 in the L5 games between these NFC West rivals.

(127) CHICAGO at (128) DENVERThe Broncos haven’t beaten Chicago since their first Super Bowl winning season of ’96. In all fairness, the teams have only played each other twice since, with Chicago scoring wins in ’03 & ’07. Four of the L5 games between these inter-conference foes went UNDER the total.

(129) BUFFALO at (130) SAN DIEGOHome teams are on a 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS run in the head-to-head series between Buffalo & San Diego since ’02. The Bills are on their own run of 4-1 ATS in this series as well, however, they were pummeled 48-10 as 11.5-point underdogs in their most recent trip to San Diego in ’05. OVER the total is 4-2 in this series since ’00.

(131) NY GIANTS at (132) DALLASLike a few other NFC East rivalries, underdogs and road teams have thrived in recent action between the Giants and Cowboys. In fact, underdogs have covered four straight games in the series while going 3-1 SU, and road teams share the same SU mark while going 3-1 ATS. OVER the total has converted four straight as well and is 8-2-1 since ’06. (133) ST LOUIS at (134) SEATTLESeattle extended its run of dominance over St. Louis with a 24-7 road win just three weeks ago. For the Seahawks, it was their 12th win in 13 tries versus the Rams (10-3 ATS). Seattle is on 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS run when hosting the Rams, with the last St. Louis road win in this series coming in the playoff game of January ’05. Three straight games between these teams have gone UNDER the total.

nfl head-to-head series Breakdown

nfl head-to-head series Breakdown


Teams To play on(111) KANSAS CITY AT (112) NY JETS

NY JETS IS 25-12-2 ATS(L50G) Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per point(L25G)( $1180 Profit with a 27.5% ROI )

(105) INDIANAPOLIS AT (106) BALTIMOREBALTIMORE IS 23-7 ATS(L50G) at Home as Fav Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per point(CS)( $1530 Profit with a 46.4% ROI )

(125) SAN FRANCISCO AT (126) ARIZONASAN FRANCISCO IS 19-10-2 ATS(L50G) Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 24.5 PPG(L25G)( $800 Profit with a 23.5% ROI )

Teams To play agaInsT(117) PHILADELPHIA AT (118) MIAMI

MIAMI IS 10-21 ATS(L50G) at Home AGAINST POOR TEAMS WITH 40%+ WINNING PCT(CS)( $1000 Profit with a 29.3% ROI )

(113) MINNESOTA AT (114) DETROITMINNESOTA IS 15-33-2 ATS(L50G) Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.15 yards per attempt(CS)( $1650 Profit with a 30.0% ROI )

(133) ST LOUIS AT (134) SEATTLEST LOUIS IS 16-33-1 ATS(L50G) Against efficient defenses allowing more than 16.3 yards per point(CS)( $1540 Profit with a 28.0% ROI )

games To play over(101) CLEVELAND AT (102) PITTSBURGH

PITTSBURGH IS 35-13-2 OVER(L50G) at Home Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS)( $2070 Profit with a 37.6% ROI )

(117) PHILADELPHIA AT (118) MIAMIPHILADELPHIA IS 23-13 OVER(L50G) 1000 or more travel miles( $870 Profit with a 22.0% ROI )

(131) NY GIANTS AT (132) DALLASDALLAS IS 30-19-1 OVER(L50G) Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.9 yards per carry(CS)( $910 Profit with a 16.6% ROI )

games To play unDer(129) BUFFALO AT (130) SAN DIEGO

SAN DIEGO IS 19-6 UNDER(L25G) at Home Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry(CS)( $1240 Profit with a 45.1% ROI )

(121) ATLANTA AT (122) CAROLINAATLANTA IS 22-11 UNDER(L50G) Against inept passing defenses yielding more than 7.25 yards per attempt(CS)( $990 Profit with a 27.3% ROI )

(121) ATLANTA AT (122) CAROLINACAROLINA IS 27-9 UNDER(L50G) at Home division games( $1710 Profit with a 43.2% ROI )

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(101) clevelanD [su:4-8 | aTs:4-7-1] aT (102) pITTsBurgh (-14 | 38.5) [su:9-3 | aTs:6-6]DecemBer 8, 2011 8:25 pm on nfl - heInZ fIelD (pITTsBurgh, pa)

OFFENSIVE STATISTICS DEFENSIVE STATISTICS2011 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFCLEVELAND 14.6 18 26-94 [3.6] 36-21-197 [5.5] 19.9 20.0 18 34-151 [4.4] 28-16-173 [6.2] 16.2 -1 -5.4 PITTSBURGH 22.3 22 27-112 [4.2] 34-22-256 [7.5] 16.5 16.2 17 24-97 [4.0] 33-19-177 [5.3] 16.9 -6 +6.1

The Cleveland passing game ranks 30th in the NFL in passing yards per attempt at 5.5 and that does not figure to improve if Colt McCoy cannot overcome sprained knee. At least the Browns are finally getting results from Peyton Hillis, but last year against Pittsburgh, Hillis only totaled 54 yards on 18 carries in two games. Cleveland is 0-7 ATS vs. defensive teams allowing 17 or less points a game. The Steelers throttling of Cincinnati proved one thing; the playoff push has begun in the Steel City. “It’s getting closer to the playoffs, and it is time for us to get better,” receiver Mike Wallace said. Pittsburgh is 16-2 and 12-6 ATS when Cleveland visits.

game TrenDsPITTSBURGH IS 17-8 ATS(L25G) at Home Against lesser offensive teams averaging less than 5.1 yards per play(L50G)• CLEVELAND IS 7-18 ATS(L25G) Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0 points per game(CS)• PITTSBURGH IS 16-7-2 OVER(L25G) at Home division games•

(105) InDIanapolIs [su:0-12 | aTs:3-9] aT (106) BalTImore (-16 | 40.5) [su:9-3 | aTs:7-4-1]DecemBer 11, 2011 1:00 pm on cBs - m&T Bank sTaDIum (BalTImore, mD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANAPOLIS 14.5 16 23-99 [4.3] 33-19-194 [5.8] 20.2 29.8 22 35-144 [4.1] 31-22-243 [7.9] 13.0 -13 -15.3BALTIMORE 24.7 20 28-115 [4.1] 36-20-230 [6.3] 14.0 16.0 16 26-89 [3.4] 33-18-199 [6.0] 18.0 +4 +8.7

Twelve down and four to go and Indianapolis becomes the second NFL team to post a vile record of 0-16. As has become the weekly custom, coach Jim Caldwell and the Colts players rattled on about mistakes killing them, but no help is in sight. The brightest news is the continued development of WR Pierre Garcon, who’s off a career-best in catches and yards performance. Indy is 11-3 OVER in road outings since last season. Baltimore went all Denver-like, running the ball 55 times on Cleveland and it would surprise nobody if they did the same thing again against the Colts who permit 144 YPG rushing. The Ravens are 13-4 ATS after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards.

game TrenDsBALTIMORE IS 20-5 ATS(L25G) at Home as Fav Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per point(CS)• INDIANAPOLIS IS 18-7 UNDER(L25G) Against stout rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per(CS)• INDIANAPOLIS IS 7-18 ATS(L25G) After SU loss•

(107) housTon [su:9-3 | aTs:8-3-1] aT (108) cIncInnaTI (-3 | 37.5) [su:7-5 | aTs:7-4-1]DecemBer 11, 2011 1:00 pm on cBs - paul BroWn sTaDIum (cIncInnaTI, oh)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF HOUSTON 25.8 20 36-153 [4.2] 29-17-224 [7.8] 14.6 15.8 16 22-91 [4.2] 34-17-183 [5.4] 17.3 +12 +10.0 CINCINNATI 22.2 17 28-108 [3.9] 34-20-218 [6.4] 14.7 20.8 17 27-96 [3.6] 33-19-210 [6.4] 14.7 -1 +1.4

T.J. Yates proved he could run a NFL team; the next step in the maturation process is duplicating the feat on the road. Yates was as cool as a December morning and never hinted of losing his poise. Yates may not see WR Andre Johnson for awhile, but with Houston’s offensive line and defense, it might not matter. The Texans are 1-9 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog. After a smart 6-2 start, Cincinnati has returned to the pack with 7-5 record. The Bengals have to be thinking wild card at this point and starting playing better in second quarters, where they have been outscored 119-39 this season. Cincy is 1-10 ATS as home faves.

game TrenDsCINCINNATI IS 6-19 ATS(L25G) As favorite• CINCINNATI IS 18-7 UNDER(L25G) In December• HOUSTON IS 15-10 ATS(L25G) Against poor rushing teams averaging less than 3.8 yards per carry(L25G)•

nfl matchups nfl matchups

OFFENSIVE STATISTICS DEFENSIVE STATISTICS2011 SEASON PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF






(109) oaklanD [su:7-5 | aTs:8-4] aT (110) green Bay (-10.5 | 52.5) [su:12-0 | aTs:8-4]DecemBer 11, 2011 4:15 pm on cBs - lamBeau fIelD (green Bay, WI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OAKLAND 22.8 20 30-141 [4.6] 31-18-227 [7.3] 16.1 25.7 23 27-141 [5.2] 38-20-232 [6.1] 14.5 0 -2.9 GREEN BAY 35.0 22 26-96 [3.8] 34-24-309 [9.0] 11.6 21.8 21 21-105 [4.9] 40-24-293 [7.4] 18.3 +16 +13.2

The Oakland Raiders gave nobody a reason to believe they are deserving of accolades, with an uninspired showing in Miami. The offensive line has suddenly become ineffective, with no running game and Carson Palmer trying to throw from a collapsing pocket. The matchup at the frozen tundra in December does not figure to help the Raiders 22-42 ATS record the final four weeks of the season. Aaron Rodgers miraculous campaign continues, as he all but locked up the MVP hardware with the game-winning drive in New Jersey. While there is no argument for the 12-0 start, the Green Bay defense is porous and has a month to fix itself. The Packers are 10-2 ATS off a road win with a margin of 17.2 PPG.

game TrenDsGREEN BAY IS 18-7 ATS(L25G) All Games• GREEN BAY IS 7-3 OVER(L10G) Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry(L50G)• OAKLAND IS 4-6 ATS(L10G) as Dog Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 6.75 yards per attempt(CS)•

(111) kansas cITy [su:5-7 | aTs:7-5] aT (112) ny JeTs (-9 | 36.5) [su:7-5 | aTs:5-7]DecemBer 11, 2011 1:00 pm on cBs - meTlIfe sTaDIum (easT ruTherforD, nJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS CITY 13.6 17 31-121 [3.9] 31-19-179 [5.8] 22.1 22.3 18 31-130 [4.2] 29-17-214 [7.3] 15.4 -3 -8.7 NY JETS 24.2 18 27-100 [3.7] 34-19-210 [6.2] 12.8 21.7 18 29-113 [3.9] 33-18-205 [6.2] 14.7 0 +2.5

The Jets packed Washington away like an unwanted Christmas gift, scoring three touchdowns in final 3:02 of the fourth quarter. These last stanza heroics are wonderful; however Rex Ryan’s club has to play with the same urgency from the start of the contests or eventually, they will be hooked with a defeat. The Flyboys are 1-8 ATS as non-division home favorites of less than 10 points. The odds of Kansas City making the playoffs are probably similar to connecting on Hail Mary pass, which was the decisive play in upset of Chicago. The Chiefs have to continue to play stellar defense and manufacture points and if they do, K.C. could move to 10-1 ATS in the second of consecutive road games.

game TrenDsNY JETS IS 8-2 ATS(L10G) Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 16.6 yards per point(L25G)• KANSAS CITY IS 3-7 ATS(L10G) on Road Against decent-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or more(CS)• NY JETS IS 17-8 OVER(L25G) All Games•

(113) mInnesoTa [su:2-10 | aTs:4-7-1] aT (114) DeTroIT (nl | nl) [su:7-5 | aTs:6-5-1]DecemBer 11, 2011 1:00 pm on fox - forD fIelD (DeTroIT, mI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MINNESOTA 20.5 18 27-135 [4.9] 31-18-194 [6.2] 16.0 27.5 21 28-104 [3.8] 33-23-252 [7.5] 12.9 0 -7.0 DETROIT 27.8 21 23-103 [4.4] 41-26-281 [6.9] 13.8 23.1 19 26-125 [4.8] 35-22-213 [6.1] 14.6 +5 +4.7

In Minnesota franchise history, the only team to finish with only two wins was the 1961 expansion club that went 2-11-1. The only Vikings squad to lose more than 12 games was the 1984 team that went 3-13. With Minnesota’s remaining schedule, this could be record-setting season, for all the wrong reasons. The Vikes are 2-9 ATS playing against a winning team. The Detroit Lions are playing like one of the old Charles Bronson movies, “Death Wish”. The Lions have the capacity to stop making foolish plays, they just have to decide what’s important to them. The situation seems to fit the Motown crew who is 9-2 ATS at home when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.

game TrenDsDETROIT IS 17-8 OVER(L25G) Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6 yards per play(L50G)• MINNESOTA IS 4-19-2 ATS(L25G) Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.15 yards per attempt(CS)• MINNESOTA IS 8-2 OVER(L10G) Against high-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or more(CS)•







(115) neW orleans (-3.5 | 48.5) [su:9-3 | aTs:8-4] aT (116) Tennessee [su:7-5 | aTs:6-6]DecemBer 11, 2011 1:00 pm on fox - lp fIelD (nashvIlle, Tn)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ORLEANS 32.8 25 26-123 [4.8] 41-29-325 [7.9] 13.7 22.4 21 23-115 [4.9] 39-23-264 [6.7] 16.9 -2 +10.4 TENNESSEE 20.8 17 24-97 [4.0] 35-21-222 [6.4] 15.3 19.1 21 29-122 [4.3] 38-23-233 [6.2] 18.6 +5 +1.7

New Orleans opened up a more comfortable two-game division lead with their triumph on Sunday night and will look to maintain or extend this Sunday. The Saints offense has been heavenly, averaging 33.2 points per game since regrettable loss to St. Louis five weeks ago. New Orleans is however 2-9 ATS after scoring 17 points or more in the first half of consecutive outings. After missing the playoffs the last two years, Tennessee is in the thick of the wild card chase, thanks to the offense line blocking better and Chris Johnson running with more determination. The Titans are 28-10 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in last game and 38-16 ATS in non-conference action.

game TrenDsTENNESSEE IS 20-5 ATS(L25G) Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per carry(L25G)• NEW ORLEANS IS 3-7 ATS(L10G) on Road After SU win• TENNESSEE IS 17-7-1 OVER(L25G) at Home After OU under•

(117) phIlaDelphIa [su:4-8 | aTs:4-8] aT (118) mIamI (-3 | 44) [su:4-8 | aTs:6-6]DecemBer 11, 2011 1:00 pm on fox - sun lIfe sTaDIum (mIamI, fl)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PHILADELPHIA 22.6 23 28-157 [5.5] 36-21-255 [7.1] 18.2 23.5 19 26-116 [4.4] 31-18-229 [7.3] 14.7 -13 -0.9 MIAMI 20.5 19 29-118 [4.0] 30-18-202 [6.8] 15.6 18.3 19 25-93 [3.7] 36-21-249 [6.9] 18.7 -4 +2.2

If three-quarters of the Philadelphia players would like Andy Reid to be their coach in 2012, they better start playing football like it matters. More than one Eagles player looked to be disinterested the past couple of weeks. Philadelphia could unbelievably finish last in the NFC East. The Eagles are 1-9 ATS in December if foe faced an AFC opponent in last contest. Reggie Bush is substantiating his point; he can carry the rock with 100-plus rushing yards for a second time this season. This benefits QB Matt Moore in play-action throwing and the defense is pulsating in conceding 10.8 PPG the last five weeks. The Dolphins are 11-1 ATS vs. opponents averaging 130 or more yards rushing.

game TrenDsPHILADELPHIA IS 7-3 ATS(L10G) Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards per carry(L25G)• MIAMI IS 2-8 ATS(L10G) at Home AGAINST POOR TEAMS WITH 40%+ WINNING PCT(CS)• PHILADELPHIA IS 18-7 OVER(L25G) AS underdog of 7 or less points•






(119) neW englanD (-8 | 47.5) [su:9-3 | aTs:7-5] aT (120) WashIngTon [su:4-8 | aTs:5-7]DecemBer 11, 2011 1:00 pm on cBs - feDex fIelD (lanDover, mD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ENGLAND 30.2 25 27-107 [4.0] 38-25-317 [8.3] 14.0 20.6 23 24-102 [4.2] 40-26-310 [7.7] 20.0 +8 +9.6 WASHINGTON 16.8 19 23-87 [3.8] 37-22-233 [6.2] 19.0 21.3 17 29-116 [4.1] 31-19-209 [6.7] 15.3 -13 -4.5

After ending their six-game slide, Washington reverted to old ways and was outscored 21-3 over the final 4:49 to lose 34-19 to the Jets. This assured the Redskins of a fourth straight non-winning campaign and saved Washington fans from having to purchase playoff tickets. News reports have the Skins losing TE Fred Davis and LT Trent Williams to suspension, for failing drug tests. Want some positive news, Washington is 9-2 ATS before facing the Giants. Leading the ineffectual Colts 31-3, the New England defense had a chance to earn much needed confidence and instead gave up three touchdowns to hapless Indy. The Patriots are 17-8 ATS after scoring 30 or more points in previous outing.

game TrenDsNEW ENGLAND IS 18-7 ATS(L25G) on Road Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.9 yards per carry(CS)• WASHINGTON IS 5-18-2 ATS(L25G) Against poor passing defenses yielding more than 6.9 yards per attempt(CS)• NEW ENGLAND IS 7-3 OVER(L10G) AGAINST POOR TEAMS WITH 40%+ WINNING PCT(CS)•

(121) aTlanTa (-3 | 48) [su:7-5 | aTs:6-6] aT (122) carolIna [su:4-8 | aTs:7-5]DecemBer 11, 2011 1:00 pm on fox - Bank of amerIca sTaDIum (charloTTe, nc)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ATLANTA 22.4 22 28-114 [4.0] 37-22-250 [6.8] 16.2 20.3 18 24-90 [3.7] 35-21-240 [6.9] 16.3 -1 +2.1 CAROLINA 24.2 22 28-138 [5.0] 34-21-260 [7.5] 16.4 27.0 20 29-132 [4.6] 29-18-230 [8.0] 13.4 -3 -2.8

Atlanta squandered a tremendous opportunity in plopping at Houston 17-10, placing them in must win games the rest of the season. Though Julio James is an exceptional talent, the Falcons deep-passing game continues to be missing in action, with connections down the field rare. Atlanta is 11-2 ATS after one or more SU setbacks since 2009. Is Carolina the next Detroit? With a home upset of the Falcons, you have to consider it. Can Newton is having a phenomenal rookie season and been a willing learner. The stop troops will be better next year under defensive-minded coach Ron Rivera. Watch out world, the Panthers are 43-23 against the spread all-time in December encounters.

game TrenDsCAROLINA IS 17-8 UNDER(L25G) at Home All Games• ATLANTA IS 8-2 ATS(L10G) After SU loss• ATLANTA IS 19-6 UNDER(L25G) Against inept passing defenses yielding more than 7.25 yards per attempt(CS)•







(123) Tampa Bay [su:4-8 | aTs:4-8] aT (124) JacksonvIlle (nl | nl) [su:3-9 | aTs:4-7-1]DecemBer 11, 2011 1:00 pm on fox - everBank fIelD (JacksonvIlle, fl)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TAMPA BAY 18.2 18 23-100 [4.3] 37-23-236 [6.3] 18.5 27.4 22 30-142 [4.7] 32-19-252 [8.0] 14.4 -5 -9.2 JACKSONVILLE 12.7 15 31-120 [3.8] 29-15-135 [4.6] 20.1 19.8 16 27-112 [4.1] 31-19-193 [6.3] 15.4 0 -7.1

Head coach Raheem Morris is scaling back the more complex elements of the Tampa Bay defense after seeing his team has allowed 32 points per game in their last five outings. The Buccaneers start three rookies and are ranked 30th overall in total defense and points allowed. They are on pace to be one of the worst units in franchise history. The Bucs are 17-6 ATS on the road after playing in a game with 50 or more total points scored. Tampa Bay’s defense figures to improve since Jacksonville has scored 13 touchdowns in a dozen contests. Blaine Gabbert plays like he should have stayed another year at Missouri and the Jags are 10-2 UNDER this season.

game TrenDsJACKSONVILLE IS 7-3 OVER(L10G) Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4 yards per point(CS)• JACKSONVILLE IS 7-18 ATS(L25G) AGAINST POOR TEAMS WITH 40%+ WINNING PCT(CS)• TAMPA BAY IS 16-8-1 ATS(L25G) on Road All Games•

(125) san francIsco (-3.5 | 39.5) [su:10-2 | aTs:10-1-1] aT (126) arIZona [su:5-7 | aTs:7-5]DecemBer 11, 2011 4:05 pm on fox - unIversITy of phoenIx sTaDIum (glenDale, aZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN FRANCISCO 24.0 18 31-130 [4.2] 27-17-185 [6.8] 13.1 13.4 17 22-72 [3.3] 37-22-232 [6.3] 22.7 +18 +10.6 ARIZONA 19.3 18 24-109 [4.5] 33-18-208 [6.4] 16.4 22.4 22 30-119 [4.0] 37-22-251 [6.8] 16.5 -8 -3.1

This NFC West conflict means almost nothing in the big picture, but pride is on the line for this Sunday and the future. San Francisco has clinched its first division crown since 2002 and wants to send a message this won’t be the last for awhile. Arizona has picked themselves off the mat, winning four of five, in mostly dramatic fashion and would like to express to the 49ers they are already back in the game. The Cardinals consider this their No.1 rivalry yet have lost five in row to San Fran and not covered since Sept. 7, 2008 (0-6 ATS). The Niners are strictly a steam play in 2011 with a 10-1-1 spread record and making their backers a mint.

game TrenDsSAN FRANCISCO IS 8-1-1 ATS(L10G) Against weak defensive teams allowing more than 24.5 PPG(L25G)• ARIZONA IS 8-2 OVER(L10G) AGAINST GOOD TEAMS WITH 60%+ WINNING PCT(L25G)• ARIZONA IS 3-7 ATS(L10G) as Dog Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.9 yards per carry(CS)•

(127) chIcago [su:7-5 | aTs:6-6] aT (128) Denver (-3.5 | 35.5) [su:7-5 | aTs:7-5]DecemBer 11, 2011 4:05 pm on fox - sporTs auThorITy fIelD aT mIle hIgh (Denver, co)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CHICAGO 24.2 18 27-119 [4.5] 31-18-206 [6.6] 13.4 20.2 18 22-100 [4.5] 41-25-259 [6.4] 17.8 +7 +4.0 DENVER 21.3 17 33-159 [4.8] 26-14-156 [5.9] 14.8 24.3 21 30-121 [4.1] 35-22-245 [6.9] 15.1 -3 -3.0

Where do the Chicago Bears develop an offense with Jay Culter and Matt Forte sidelined? Great question, with no immediate answers. In typical football-speak, Marion Barber has to step up and Caleb Hanie has to quit finding the other teams jerseys as often, with his six interceptions in the last two games. This is not a great spot for Chicago who is 8-27 ATS on the December road. Tim Tebow has more critics than a politician, but any CEO in the country would like to have his bottom-line performance. It’s time to quit trying to fit Tebow into a role that everyone understands. He’s a winner and the Broncos are 6-1 SU and ATS on his watch.

game TrenDsDENVER IS 4-20-1 ATS(L25G) at Home as Fav• CHICAGO IS 7-3 UNDER(L10G) on Road As underdog• CHICAGO IS 7-3 ATS(L10G) Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry(L50G)•







(129) Buffalo [su:5-7 | aTs:5-6-1] aT (130) san DIego (-6.5 | 47.5) [su:5-7 | aTs:3-9]DecemBer 11, 2011 4:15 pm on cBs - Qualcomm sTaDIum (san DIego, ca)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BUFFALO 23.2 20 25-120 [4.7] 35-22-228 [6.5] 15.0 25.3 21 28-129 [4.7] 32-21-234 [7.2] 14.3 +2 -2.1 SAN DIEGO 23.9 22 27-112 [4.2] 37-23-278 [7.5] 16.3 24.1 19 31-132 [4.3] 27-17-203 [7.4] 13.9 -9 -0.2

Though the situation looks impossible, now that San Diego has broken their six-game losing streak, if they win their four contests, they just might unimaginably win the pedestrian AFC West. Philip Rivers looked like his old self on Monday with a full complement of receivers in place. San Diego charges into the last quarter of the season with a 15-1 and 12-3-1 ATS record the past four years. Buffalo has lost five in a row and is matching preseason predictions. The Bills lack difference-makers on defense; Ryan Fitzpatrick gives his all, but is no better than the 20th best signal caller in the league. At least, Buffalo is 11-1 ATS in road games after three or more consecutive losses.

game TrenDsSAN DIEGO IS 8-2 UNDER(L10G) at Home Conference games• SAN DIEGO IS 16-7-2 ATS(L25G) at Home After conference su win• BUFFALO IS 2-7-1 ATS(L10G) on Road Against decent passing teams averaging more than 6.8 yards per attempt(CS)•

(131) ny gIanTs [su:6-6 | aTs:5-6-1] aT (132) Dallas (-3 | 49) [su:7-5 | aTs:4-7-1]DecemBer 11, 2011 8:30 pm on nBc - coWBoy sTaDIum (arlIngTon, Tx)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY GIANTS 23.9 21 25-84 [3.3] 37-23-296 [8.0] 15.9 26.2 21 27-127 [4.6] 36-22-260 [7.1] 14.8 +4 -2.3 DALLAS 23.6 20 26-115 [4.5] 36-23-271 [7.5] 16.4 20.3 19 24-100 [4.2] 34-21-230 [6.8] 16.3 +5 +3.3

The New York players and coaches say they are sick to death hearing about second half collapses, yet they are 0-4 since playing their ninth game of the season. The Giants gave it their best shot against Green Bay, but their 29th-ranked pass defense was no match for Aaron Rodgers. The Giants season could be all but over with a defeat in Big D and they are 1-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards. The Dallas four-game winning streak ended with curious coaching decisions and grade school-quality tackling efforts in Arizona. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in last six outings and have proven more volatile than the stock market.

game TrenDsNY GIANTS IS 7-3 ATS(L10G) as Dog VS NFC-EAST• DALLAS IS 9-1 OVER(L10G) Against anemic rushing teams averaging less than 3.6 yards per carry(CS)• DALLAS IS 2-7-1 ATS(L10G) as Fav All Games•

(133) sT louIs [su:2-10 | aTs:2-10] aT (134) seaTTle (nl | nl) [su:5-7 | aTs:7-4-1] DecemBer 12, 2011 8:30 pm on espn - cenTurylInk fIelD (seaTTle, Wa)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2011 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ST LOUIS 11.7 16 24-99 [4.0] 35-19-185 [5.2] 24.3 24.7 20 32-158 [5.0] 31-18-208 [6.7] 14.8 -5 -13.0SEATTLE 18.0 16 27-104 [3.9] 32-19-194 [6.1] 16.6 20.5 20 28-103 [3.7] 35-22-236 [6.7] 16.5 +4 -2.5

A year ago, this would not have been a good matchup, but at least both teams were fighting for the division. ESPN might be wise to hire Tony Robbins as their pitchman for this yawning confrontation. Seattle’s actually had a few quality wins like over Baltimore and plays their best at home, known locally as “False Start City”. At issue for the Seahawks in this “battle” is 2-12 ATS mark off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog. St. Louis has had more injuries than present sunder the Christmas tree and is only 2-10 ATS this season. The Rams are meager 3-8 and 4-7 ATS up in coffee country.

game TrenDsSEATTLE IS 9-1 ATS(L10G) at Home Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.0 yards per attempt(CS)• ST LOUIS IS 5-20 ATS(L25G) Against efficient defenses allowing more than 16.3 yards per point(CS)• SEATTLE IS 17-8 OVER(L25G) All Games•





With only one college football game this weekend, the focus on the gridiron turns entirely to the NFL. In recent weeks, those shifting the oddsmakers’ numbers have been making the sportsbooks pay handsomely. Here is what the early football bettors liked about this week’s card.

(101) CLEVELAND at (102) PITTSBURGHOn Monday, Cleveland quarterback Colt McCoy reported to work having to use a handrail, gingerly moving to walk down the steps to the

Browns training facility. McCoy suffered a sprain knee against Baltimore Sunday and this quick turnaround to play Pittsburgh on Thursday might be too much to ask for the Browns starting QB. In accordance, the total fell from 39.5 to 38.5. Cleveland only scores 14.6 points per game to begin with and facing Pittsburgh’s aggressive defense would figure to only further curtail the Browns offense. Cleveland’s defense has played well this season and is the other factor why the Brownies are 9-2 UNDER since Week 3. Interestingly, the Steelers are 20-9 OVER after a division encounter. Here is an inside scoop for Don Best Insider readers, when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points on Thursday’s, the UNDER is 18-4 in the last 22 contests.Don Best Insider View – Play Under

(105) INDIANAPOLIS at (106) BALTIMOREThe news of Baltimore rising from a 15-point favorite to 16.5-points wouldn’t qualify as astounding information, since the competition

is the 0-12 Indianapolis Colts. Someone in the Colts organization made a few cosmetic changes last week in making Dan Orlovsky the starting quarterback and firing defensive coordinator Larry Coyer. The truth is Indianapolis has been blindsided with injuries this season, however, the front office has done such a poor job in drafting players in recent years and the replacements are marginal NFL players. The Colts are 3-9 ATS this season. Baltimore is ready for a late season push and still hopes to secure a No.1 or 2 seed to have a home playoff game and a bye week. The Ravens are 38-22 ATS in December. Don Best Insider View – Indianapolis covers

(109) OAKLAND at (110) GREEN BAY (side and total)Both the side and total moved in this rematch of sorts from the second Super Bowl. Football bettors see a correlation

in the potential outcome, as they lowered Oakland

from +12 to +11 and dropped the total from 55 to 53.5. The thinking has to be that the Raiders are still 5-1 ATS on the road despite their showing in Miami and the only way they can compete is keeping the score down. Oakland will come into this matchup 21-9 UNDER on the road if the total is 45.5 points or higher. Green Bay might support this theory since they are 14-5 UNDER after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. Concerning the side action, the Raiders are 14-5 ATS after one more ATS setbacks, but the Packers are 10-2 ATS off a road win since last season. Don Best Insider View – Green Bay covers and Under

(115) NEW ORLEANS at (116) TENNESSEEAfter a pair of convincing wins at home and riding a four-game winning streak (4-0 ATS), New Orleans is expected to be tested on

the road in Nashville. The Saints were released by most sportsbooks at -4.5 and were checked down to -3.5-point road favorites. It is easy to understand why Tennessee is being backed with the cash. The Titans rushing offense has piled up 389 yards in the last two games, with Chris Johnson getting hot and being able to maneuver in space. New Orleans allows 114.6 yards per game (16th), yet the more important factor in this southern-style battle is the Saints concede 4.9 yards per carry (30th). The Titans are 18-7 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in consecutive games and is 38-22 ATS vs. the NFC. Don Best Insider View – Tennessee covers

(119) NEW ENGLAND at (120) WASHINGTONIn a world of “what goes around comes around”, Washington felt what that was like in the eight-day span. The Redskins flew by Seattle

with a 16-0 fourth quarter blitz to end their six-game losing streak. One week later, Washington gave up three touchdowns in just over three minutes in the last stanza and saw a 16-13 lead become a 34-19 stunning defeat. The Redskins general efforts are receiving praise and for this contest they have been lowered a point to a +8 home underdog. New England is a stellar 61-36 ATS on the road under Bill Belichick, nonetheless, the Skins are 9-0 ATS versus defensive teams allowing six or more yards a play in the second half of the season.Don Best Insider View – New England covers

(127) CHICAGO at (128) DENVERNo Jay Cutler and no Matt Forte, that spells very few points for the Chicago Bears. Bettors quickly hit the linemakers total of 36.5 and

punched it down to 35.5. The Bears defense is under a great deal of pressure as witnessed last week, as even a Hail Mary pass was too much to overcome for the offense. Chicago is 11-3 UNDER as a road underdog the last three seasons. Giddy times in the Mile High City, with Denver on a five-game winning streak, tied for first place, with a polarizing quarterback who refuses to lose. The Broncos are 16-5 OVER at home when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points. Don Best Insider View – Play Over

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7 football line moves Bettors must know

7 football line moves Bettors must know


presIDenT’s game(103) army [su:3-8 | aTs:5-6] vs (104) navy (-7 | 56.5) [su:4-7 | aTs:6-5]

DecemBer 10, 2011 2:30 pm on cBs feDex fIelD (hyaTTsvIlle, mD)[neuT]

presIDenT’s game(103) army [su:3-8 | aTs:5-6] vs (104) navy (-7 | 56.5) [su:4-7 | aTs:6-5]

DecemBer 10, 2011 2:30 pm on cBs feDex fIelD (hyaTTsvIlle, mD)[neuT]

Saturday’s meeting between Army and Navy will mark the 112th time the teams have gone head-to-head on the gridiron, with the Navy holding a 55-49-7 all-time edge. Traditionally, the game is played in Philadelphia, due to the historic nature of the city and the fact that it is approximately halfway between West Point and Annapolis. However, this year’s contest will be held at FedEx Field, in Hyattsville, MD.

Navy has absolutely dominated Army in recent years, and in fact, 2011 will mark the 10th anniversary since the Knights last won in this series. That’s correct…the Midshipmen have won nine straight game in this rivalry, going 7-2 ATS in the process. The average victory margin in that span has been 25.7 PPG, and none of the games were

decided by fewer than 14 points, the exact margin of the L2 games. Ten years ago was also the last time that Army was favored in the game. In terms of totals, the L5 games have all gone UNDER, with Army averaging just 7.4 PPG scored. There are no bowl games for either team; the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy is staying in Colorado Springs for another year and it 3-8 Army vs. 4-7 Navy. So what’s the big deal, the big deal is that it’s Army against Navy, which makes college football in some way seem all the better.

ARMY 25.2 21 63-351 [5.6] 8-3-48 [5.8] 15.8 28.4 19 38-186 [4.9] 22-13-178 [8.1] 12.8 -8 -3.2 NAVY 29.9 21 57-314 [5.5] 12-6-92 [7.7] 13.6 29.6 23 38-177 [4.7] 31-23-241 [7.8] 14.1 +8 +0.3

army navy DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU11-19 at TEMPLE +11 47 14-42 L L O 11-19 at SAN JOSE ST - 6.5 61 24-27 L L U 11-12 ** RUTGERS + 9 46 12-27 L L U 11-12 at SMU + 8.5 58.5 24-17 W W U 11-05 at AIR FORCE +16.5 55 14-24 L W U 11-05 VS TROY - 8 61.5 42-14 W W U 10-29 VS FORDHAM -29 NL 55-0 W W - 10-29 at NOTRE DAME +23.5 61.5 14-56 L L O 10-22 at VANDERBILT +11.5 46.5 21-44 L L O 10-22 VS EAST CAROLINA -13 66.5 35-38 L L O 10-08 at MIAMI OH - 1 48.5 28-35 L L O 10-15 at RUTGERS + 3 54 20-21 L W U 10-01 VS TULANE - 7 53.5 45-6 W W U 10-08 VS SOUTHERN MISS PK 57.5 35-63 L L O 09-24 at BALL ST - 4 50.5 21-48 L L O 10-01 VS AIR FORCE - 3 53.5 34-35 L L O 09-17 VS NORTHWESTERN + 5 54 21-14 W W U 09-17 at SOUTH CAROLINA +15 59.5 21-24 L W U 09-10 VS SAN DIEGO ST + 8.5 52 20-23 L W U 09-10 at W KENTUCKY -10 52.5 40-14 W W O 09-03 at N ILLINOIS +10 53.5 26-49 L L O 09-03 VS DELAWARE - 7.5 NL 40-17 W W -


DB POWER RATINGS EFFECTIVE STRG SImULATION BETToRS’RATingS#’’S TEAmS AcTuAL RTg LinE EDgE? PRoj EDgE? PRoj EDgE? PRoj EDgE?

Army had a very young squad coming into the season and the elongated break gave them not only a chance to catch their breath after a long season, but valuable practice time, since the three-week break is similar to what a team that goes to a bowl has. Quarterback Trent Steelman is the guy who makes Army’s triple option work and has only been in on two plays in the Black Knights last four contests. He is supposed to be ready for Navy, with the extra time a benefit. Coach Rich Ellerson said he didn’t give freshman QB Angel Santiago enough work in practice before the Temple loss, but that will be taken care of just in case to run the nation top rushing at 350.9 yards per game. Defensively, Army comes into this contest ranked 88th against the rush and will have to have strong penetration to slow the Navy attack, if it wants to avoid a tenth straight defeat to their arch-rival. The Black Knights are the underdog and that team is 4-10 ATS in this series.

Navy had their string of eight straight bowl appearances snapped this year and have last bit of salvation to make this at least a semi-successful campaign by taking down the Army yet again. The Midshipmen’s normally potent triple-option attack has been held in check in three of their last four games, except for the 42 points they scored against Troy at home. Inconsistency has plagued Navy all season both on offense and defense. The offense has still moved the ball as they rank fourth in rushing at 313.7 yards a contest and 5.5 yards per attempt, nevertheless, the big gainers have been lacking. Defensively, Navy has permitted too many substantial gains. The Middies are 15-5 ATS since 1991 vs. their biggest rival.

game TrenDsNAVY IS 16-8-1 OVER(L25G) Against poor passing teams averaging less than 6.15 yards per attempt(CS)• ARMY IS 8-17 ATS(L25G) as Dog Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry(L25G)• NAVY IS 7-3 ATS(L10G) Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per point(CS)•

103 ARMY 57 28 26 28 28 104 NAVY -7 34 -6.0 32 33 32

Don BesT exclusIve pIcksDON BEST JIm DON BEST ROBERT DON BEST BRYAN DON BEST JASON DON BEST PAUL CONSENSUS64-72-2, 46% 68-70-2, 49% 73-65-2, 53% 73-65-2, 53% 87-51-2, 63% 77-61-2, 56%22-18-2, 55% BB 24-17-1, 59% 28-14, 67% 21-21, 50% 26-14-2, 65% Army Army Navy Navy Navy Navy

Don BesT consensus TakeThe Army-Navy rivalry has been about as one-sided as any series in the country recently, with Navy riding a 9-game winning streak. There are some signs that Army has closed the gap a bit of late, as the Knights actually outgained the Midshipmen a year ago but still lost 31-17. I think the key point though is that they STILL LOST, this despite enjoying a +2 turnover edge too. Navy is 4-7, Army is 3-8, the closest the teams have been in record in years. Still, with the Middies outscoring their opponents on the season and Army at -3.2 PPG, it just doesn’t seem that Army has gained enough to expect to win. We can’t take the dog here if we don’t think they’ll win outright, let’s go Navy.

DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU DATE OPPONENT LINE OU SCORE ATS SU OU

DON BEST JIm DON BEST ROBERT DON BEST BRYAN DON BEST JASON DON BEST PAUL CONSENSUS

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