the dilemma of the chicken or the egg of the peace process

7/29/2019 The Dilemma of the Chicken or the Egg of the Peace Process

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The dilemma of the chicken or the egg of the peace process

Translated by Matilda Villarraga

Several congressmen told La Silla that if the Peace Agreement with the FARC is

not signed before July will be impossible to pass the law that regulates the

framework for peace.

Yesterday at a meeting in the Trade Union Council, Humberto de la Calle said that

he really believed there was "a real opportunity" to put an end to the armed conflict

in Colombia through dialogue. The optimism on both sides of the table is great but

there is a challenge that will be difficult to deal with: the political times.

As negotiators have hinted from both guerrilla and Government, negotiations on

agricultural issues are at an advanced stage and finally in the last few weeks

already concrete themes are being discussed.

Although the path that follows is difficult - starting with the clarification that Iván

Márquez made that they consider themselves victims, not perpetrators - the other

issues seem less thorny; except one: that of the political and legal security of the

guerrillas. That, in other words, means the statutory law which would regulate the

Framework for Peace.

The Framework for Peace is a constitutional reform that was adopted when the

country still did not know that there were ongoing negotiations with the Farc but

that was presented by the Government to enable a peace process which was already

in the exploring with them.

It is a succinct rule that allows that in the event that there is a peace process the

prosecution has the power to judge only the ‘most responsible’ for the crimes of

the guerrillas and other armed groups, and not to judge the rest of the troop.

Now Congress will have to set the criteria that the Prosecutor will be able to use, to

decide what kind of crimes are not investigated if the FARC sign the treaty and

what penalties could be payable (or not payable) by guerrilla leaders who have



committed heinous crimes.

In time, as reported by La Silla, the Uribistas opposed the adoption of the

Framework for Peace with the argument that they did not want to see Timoshenko

as congressman. The U Senator Roy Barreras told them that this was not a

possibility.

However, as it was written in the last debate, the Framework includes the

possibility of participation in politics for those who have committed political

offences or crimes that are "related" to politicians, i.e. they are committed as a

result of a political offence. Statutory law shall also define this point because there

is a great debate about which crimes would be related.

In the case of Timoshenko, for example, Congress must define if war crimes can

be understood as related to political offences, for example. And this, assuming theperson in question is not convicted of a crime against humanity, which can never

be associated with political crimes.

Rather, the discussion about Legal Framework for Peace, which was very tough,

was child’s play compared to what will be discussed when the bill gets to

Congress. The question is, when a law so controversial, can come to Congress.

The Political Moments

Finding the right political moment is harder to fit into the whole process in Havana

because this time, as it has happened in previous processes, the success or failure

of the negotiation in the end will depend on a convergence of political interests.

For the guerrilla leaders in Cuba, that this law materializes it is a fundamental step

prior to laying down their arms. They have to make sure that the Government won't

end up extraditing them on a plane to Miami as it did with the paramilitary bosses

much closer to the Establishment than the guerrillas. And that’s not all. They will

also demand guarantees that they may make their revolution by political means

instead of the army.

Because at the end of the day, as this process is designed, the negotiation comes to

this: to create the conditions, not so they renounce their ideology, but that they

pursue it by democratic means. Therefore, at this stage it is no longer in dispute



that one of the results of the process will be to find the formula so that at least

some of the guerrilla commanders can participate in elections.

As for many Colombians the move from perceiving the guerrillas as terrorists, to

see them as future congressmen is too large to digest, the Government will hardlyincur in the political costs of presenting this project if the agreement is not already

fully cooked. Furthermore, because the constitutional reform is clear in that it only

applies if there is indeed a peace agreement already signed.

November no longer works

Juan Manuel Santos said a few months ago that the deadline for signing the peace

agreement would be November. However, several members of Congress expressed

to La Silla that there was not the most remote possibility that this law could be

processed in the first half of 2014, in full election period.

First, because at that time the congressmen are involved fully in their re-election

campaign and achieving quorum is difficult. But second, because it would be an

unpopular flag and even more so if they are competing against the list of former

President Uribe.

'If the agreement is signed after July, there is no Congress that will approve them

transitional justice. If they have the political will, the Government and the Farc

must understand that any date after July doesn't correlate with the legislative and

political timetable," said Senator Roy Barreras, President of Congress. "In addition,

we don't know how the majority will be in the next Congress".

He, for example, who is one of the strongest promoters of the Framework for

Peace has already said he will not return. This perception of the political times was

shared by another conservative senator and two Liberals. One of them said to LaSilla, that rather than the speculation of the politicians on political reform, what

could weaken Uribe the most would be a signed peace agreement in December.

Moreover, as a statutory law, it must be previously reviewed by the Constitutional

Court before being passed into law.



In the ranks of the Marcha Patriótica also one feels some urgency. The

'Constituencies for Peace' that were created in the meeting last weekend are an

example of this. These groups will be composed of organizations, unions and

peasant-many of them in areas under the influence of the FARC- which have a

main purpose and that is to drive the process and push it to lead in the direction of

peace.

Considering the communicating vessels between the guerrillas and the regions

where the Marcha Patriótica has an electoral possibility, the pressure to get this bill

out before December and can thus participate in the race with the strength thatwould give them a successful peace process, will certainly be felt in Havana.

En esa medida, los intereses políticos de la coalición política mayoritaria y los de

la guerrilla estarían alineados y eso aumentaría las posibilidades de éxito del

proceso.

To that extent, the political interests of the majority political coalition and those of

the guerrillas would be aligned and that would increase the possibilities of successof the process.

Nevertheless, for precisely the same reasons, those who are opposed to the

guerrillas obtaining rights to political participation and wide margins of impunity

will try to elevate the political cost to the government and the congressmen who

support the law that regulates the Framework for Peace. The only way not to

achieve this is if this time everything is completely clear to the country that theFARC have decided to lay down their arms. It will be the dilemma of the chicken

and the egg.

Fotos:

Primera: Several congressmen told La Silla that if the peace agreement with theFarc is not signed before July it will be impossible to pass the law that regulatesthe Framework for Peace.

Segunda: 'The Government and the FARC have between February and July toreach an agreement," said Sen. Roy Barriers, President of Congress.

Tercera: The former President Álvaro Uribe, one of the biggest opponents to theframework for peace, will surely use the formality of statutory law that regulatesit as an electoral warhorse.

the dilemma of the chicken or the egg of the peace process

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