the demand for bachelor’s degrees in florida
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The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida. Presentation Made to The Florida College System Task Force On September 4, 2008. Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement Florida Department of Education. The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida
Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement
Florida Department of Education
Presentation Made to
The Florida College System Task Force
On September 4, 2008
The Demand for Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida
1. Bachelor’s degrees and Florida’s working population
2. Sources of Bachelor’s Degrees-
3. Elements of Demand
Florida’s labor market
Students in the pipeline
4. Conclusions
Jay Pfeiffer, Deputy Commissioner Accountability, Research and Measurement
Florida Department of Education
United States
13.0%
30.2%
30.1%
26.7
13.1%
29.5%
28.3%
29.2%
Florida
13.8%
25.6%
27.2%
33.4%
Ten Most Productive States
Educational Attainment of Selected Labor Force-Aged Populations (Ages 25-64)
Source: 2006 American Community Survey, U.S. Bureau of the Census
< High School
High School Graduate
Some College/Associate
Bachelors Degrees or more
Bachelor’s Degree Attainment and Gross Domestic Product
State GDP Per Capita Population 25-64 with Bachelors
degree or higher
United States $37,545 29.2%
Florida $33,718 26.7%
Delaware $59,288 29.1%
Connecticut $50,332 36.6%
Massachusetts $46,721 40.8%
New York $46,617 33.8%
New Jersey $44,885 36.8%
Alaska $43,748 27.5%
Colorado $41,798 35.9%
Virginia $41,702 35.1%
California $41,663 30.1%
Minnesota $41,295 33.2%
Sources: 2006 American Community Survey, U.S. Bureau of the Census; Bureau of Economic Analysis (2006 GDP by State)
Sources of Bachelor’s Degrees in Florida
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-070
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000SUS
ICUF
Private
CC
In-Migration based on 2006 only
Source: FETPIP, IPEDS, NCHEMS
National Data: Labor Force Information by Credential Earned
Unemployment Rate(Percent)
Median Earnings (Dollars)
Notes: Unemployment and earnings for workers 25 and older, by educational attainment; earnings for full-time wage and salary workers
Master’s degree
Bachelor’s degree
Associate degree
Some college, no degree
1.4
1.1
6.8
4.3
3.9
3.0
2.3
1.7
$76,648
$74,932
$21,788
$58,708
$35,048
$37,492
$30,940
$50,024
High-school, graduate
Some high-school, no diploma
Professional degree
Doctoral degree
Sources: Unemployment rate, 2006 annual average: Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2006 Weekly Median Earnings (multiplied by 52 weeks), Bureau of the Census.
Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation
Occupational Distribution sorted by Minimum Educational Requirements in 2016
0500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
High School or Less
Vocational Certificate
College Credit/Associates
Bachelors
Bachelors Plus
10,072,029 Jobs projected by 2016 in Florida
0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000
High School or Less
Vocational Certificate
College Credit/Associates
Bachelors
Bachelors Plus
Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation
Includes occupations with at least 4000 jobs in 2008; Occupations growing at 2% per year or greater.
100 Fastest Growing Occupations to 2016 by Minimum Educational Requirements
10
39
27
15
9
Occupational Title
Employment
OccupationalIncrease (2008-
2016)
Annual %
Change2008 Hourly
Average Wage 2008 2016
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 13,989 17,747 3,758 3.36 40.24
Physician Assistants 4,468 5,687 1,219 3.41 40.53
Business Teachers, Postsecondary 3,953 4,915 962 3.04 48.26
Civil Engineers 15,326 18,767 3,441 2.81 37.91
Management Analysts 54,142 65,028 10,886 2.51 37.87
Physical Therapists 12,204 15,097 2,893 2.96 36.02
Environmental Engineers 2,862 3,648 786 3.43 37.09
Computer Science Teachers, Postsecondary 1,827 2,265 438 3.00 43.02
Agricultural Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary 855 1,081 226 3.30 51.03
Industrial Engineers 9,215 11,429 2,214 3.00 33.19
Special Education Teachers, Preschool - Elementary 10,946 13,448 2,502 2.86 32.72
Nursing Instructors and Teachers, Postsecondary 1,797 2,203 406 2.82 39.55
Occupational Therapists 5,360 6,485 1,125 2.62 34.73
Engineering Managers 4,642 5,357 715 1.93 54.98
Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary 6,866 7,789 923 1.68 51.74
Human Resources Managers, All Other 1,892 2,249 357 2.36 43.82
Hydrologists 614 811 197 4.01 36.32
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 75,241 88,774 13,533 2.25 31.31
Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education 11,418 13,747 2,329 2.55 31.07
Education Administrators, Postsecondary 2,976 3,515 539 2.26 40.61
Forestry & Conservation Teachers, Postsecondary 94 120 26 3.46 48.58
Top Florida Occupations Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree in 2016 – Ranked by Several Factors
Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation - Data
High School Student Enrollment 1995 - 2005 by Race/ Enthnicity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
BlackHispanicOtherALL MINORITYWhite
Higher Proportions of Minority Students are Moving up the Pipeline
Source: Florida Education Data Warehouse
First Time Enrollment in Community College: Percent by Race/Ethnicity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
BlackHispanicOtherALL MINORITYWhite
Public School Demographic Changes are Reflected in Community College First Time Enrollees…
First Time Enrollment in State University: Percent by Race/Ethnicity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
BlackHispanicOtherALL MINORITYWhite
Demographic Changes are Not as Reflected in State University First Time Enrollees…
Standard Diplomas
0
40000
80000
120000
160000
200000
83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19
Actual
Projected
Actual and Projected High School Graduates In Florida
1982-2020
Source: Florida Department of Education; Evaluation and Reporting
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-070
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Source: FETPIP
Continuing Education Immediately After High School Graduation 2002 -2007
Total Continuing Education
SUS
CC
Out-of-State
ICUF
In the year following graduation with a Standard high School Diploma
Source: Education Data Warehouse
Florida Postsecondary Enrollments After High School Graduation Delayed Starters 2002 -2007
Total Enrolled
SUS
CC
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-0790000
140000
190000
240000
290000
340000
390000
Students between 25 and 65 years of age.
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2006-070
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Florida Community College Associate of Arts Graduates Entry into the Upper Division in State Institutions*
Source: FETPIP
Total Graduates
Total Continuing to the Upper Division
SUS
ICUF
*During the year following graduation from a Florida Community College
Source: PK-20 Education Data Warehouse
132,814
6,546 9,645 4,004
31,027
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Standard HighSchool
Diplomas
SpecialDiplomas
Certificate ofCompletion
GED Dropouts(Grades 9 - 12)
How do Florida Students Leave Public High Schools? 2006-07
132,814Diploma
Recipients
Independent Universities
PK-12 Adult Programs
Source: PK-20 Education Data Warehouse. Note: These data represent preliminary findings.
Community Colleges
State University System
2006-07 The 2007-08 Academic Year*
Outta State*92,970 Unduplicated Students in Postsecondary – 70%
13,982 (11%)
70,140 (53%)
29,554 (22%)
4,872 (4%)
6,641 (5%)
What Happens After They Graduated? - Standard Diplomas to Postsecondary
Source: Florida Education and Training Placement Information Program
Florida 1995-96 High School GraduatesIn-State Postsecondary Enrollments Through 2000
N = 89,461 Graduates In Cohort
1996 1997 1998 1999 20000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
45,618 initial postsecondary enrollments,
fall '9735,804
ContinueIn fall of
1998
6,586 new in '98
C
3,531 from '98
2,932 new '992,089 returning
2,537 from '981,627 from '99
1,235 '99 returnees
740 '98s who left in '99
2,578 new in 2000
9881730
797407
1170
1,682 newin 2001
Thou
sand
s of
Stu
dent
s
29,010Originals
Fall of1999
24,936Originals
fall of 200016,205
originals in fall of
2001
Source: K20 Education Data Warehouse
Florida Public High School Graduates, Class of 1996, Highest Education Credential Attainment as
of 2007
89,461 Standard Diplomas
(15,478 – 17% Never Enrolled in Florida – 6.48% out of State)
Standard Diploma66%
Post BA4%
BA18%
AA8%
Col Credit Voc2%
VOC2%
Standard Diploma66%
BA18%
AA8%
AVGDISCIPLINE Total N EMP % EMP EARNINGSEDUCATION 5135 4035 79% $8,661ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY 439 326 74% $12,944PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND SERVICE 996 718 72% $9,156BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT 15009 9703 65% $9,556COMPUTER & INFORMATION SCIENCES 1056 682 65% $11,105HEALTH PROFESSIONS & RELATED SCIENCE 5166 3330 64% $10,910LIBERAL/GENERAL STUDIES 1790 1106 62% $7,870PSYCHOLOGY 4256 2617 61% $6,108ENGLISH 2126 1300 61% $6,642MASS COMMUNICATION 3302 2018 61% $6,667PROTECTIVE SERVICES 2260 1356 60% $7,891
Placement Data for SUS Bachelor’s Degrees
Source: FETPIP
Florida has regularly collected employment placement data since the late 1980s. These data can be used to identify bachelor’s degree disciplines where a substantial number off graduates are placed in Florida jobs plus additional details such as quarterly earnings. In the example below, disciplines were sorted first by placement rate, then by earnings.
Note: These data are for 2006-07 graduates based on Florida employment in the late fall of 2007.
Placement Data for SUS Bachelor’s Degrees
Discipline Industry Grads Employed
2003Placement Earnings
2003 Industry Average
2003Difference
2007 Placement Average
2007 Industry Average
2007 Difference
Key Sources of Strategies and Direction
• Enterprise Florida, Inc.o Industry Sectorso Roadmap to Florida’s Future
• Council of 100, 2006 Report• Chamber of Commerce Cornerstone Report• Workforce Florida, Inc., Targeted Industries,
Statewide and Regional• Florida High-Tech Corridor • Agency for Workforce Innovation • Florida Hospital Association and Department of
Health• State Board of Education, Critical Teachers• Florida Board of Governors
General Areas of Emphasis
• Sustainable Developmento Energyo Environment
• Information Technology• Disaster Management
o Homeland Securityo Hurricane Preparedness
• Engineeringo Aerospace/Aviationo Manufacturingo Construction
• Arts/Communication/Interactive Entertainment
• Business & Global Economicso Financial Serviceso Professional Serviceso Hospitality
• Scienceso Life Scienceso Biotechnology Mfg.o Scientific & Technical Services
• Medical Serviceso Healthcareo Social Services
• Education• Technology
o Research and Developmento Emerging Technologies
Concluding Remarks
1. The linkage between employment opportunity, economic prosperity, and the educational system-particularly postsecondary education-is as critical to the nation’s future and to Florida’s role in that future.
2. There are sources of data that can and should be used to inform decisions about the types degrees to be offered that are based on historical trends, tempered by recent events. Consider:
• occupational projections by the Agency for Workforce Innovation.
• occupational needs analysis conducted by state organizations.
• placement data indicating which disciplines provide educated workers to which Florida industries.
• regional, as well as state level information from employers and organizations that represent them.
3. Sources need be considered that look beyond the “status quo” and relatively short term needs of the existing economy toward a new, more competitive economy for Florida.