The Deloitte CFO SurveyIrish growth through global uncertainty

Quarter 3 2015 survey results

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Contents

Quarter 1 overview 3

Snapshot of key findings 4

Key events and economic trends 6

Survey findings

Section 1 The economy and your company – financing, debt and credit 8

Section 2 Corporate Priorities/Challenges for CFO’s Businesses in the next 12 months 13

Section 3 Budget 2016 and General Election 2016 Expectations 18

About the survey This is the twenty fourth in a series of quarterly surveys of Chief Financial Officers of major Irish based companies. The survey was conducted in September 2015/October 2015, and CFOs of listed companies, large private companies and Irish subsidiaries of overseas multi-national companies participated.

The Deloitte CFO Survey is the only survey that seeks to establish the views of CFOs in relation to the financial markets, economic outlook and business trends on a quarterly basis.

Due to rounding, responses to the questions covered in this report may not aggregate to 100.

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Many businesses in Ireland and indeed across the Eurozone have effectively spent many years in survival mode, protecting capital and adopting strategies to sustain performance rather than actively building for the future. Whilst there are reasons to be cautious (potential higher interest rates, weakness in the Euro) there are overwhelming signs of a return to growth, especially with Ireland likely to become the fastest growing economy in the EU for the second year running and with the Government in a more robust position than it has been in quite some time.

CFOs are now refocusing on the opportunities that come with more favourable economic conditions. Organic growth is a higher priority for CFOs over the next twelve months as opposed to expansion by acquisition, with the introduction of new products and services or expanding into new markets a top priority.

While CFOs focus on growth, companies need to be adequately financed in order to take advantage of growth opportunities. The risk appetite of CFOs has weakened unsurprisingly given the weakness of Chinese and Greek economies. The prospect of tighter monetary policy in the EU may lead to interest rate rises and availability of credit being harder to obtain and costly.

The Finance Function has a key role to play in enabling the business to manage growth, in particular, by providing accurate information to support effective decision making and by helping the business understand its progress on growth goals. As the economic outlook continues to improve, the Finance Function can assist CFOs to understand where to focus on investment, monitor the impact of new strategic initiatives and track performance, progress and profits. Making management information more insightful by freeing up time for analysis and by investing in talent are key priorities for the CFO and its finance function as companies move to take advantage of a shift in the economic cycle.

Our CFO survey is now published biannually, so we look forward to sharing future insights from your peer group with you in the New Year.

Quarter 1 overview

CONTACTS

If you would like further information on the CFO Survey or wish to participate in the future, please contact:

Alan Flanagan Partner T: +353 1 417 2873 E: aflanagan@deloitte.ie

Danny Gaffney Director T: +353 1 417 2349 E: dgaffney@deloitte.ie

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55%

85% 69%

of CFOs feel more optimistic about the financial prospects of their organisation.

of CFOs consider retaining their current employees as a top priority. Focusing on developing existing talent could go some way to helping the Finance Function build the capabilities needed to be efficient and effective at delivering value added business insight.

of CFOs considered that the 2016 budget will show Ireland to be in a stronger financial position that it has been for several years.

Organic growth is a higher priority for CFOs over the next twelve months as opposed to growth by expansion.

56% 56% 74% of CFOs believe that the level of external finance and economic uncertainty facing their business is at a normal level.

of CFOs believe their organisations are on schedule to implement the proposed changes to IFRS 4 and 9 accounting standards.

of CFOs believe their finance strategy is broadly aligned to support the current challenges facing their organisation.

Snapshot of key findings

CFOs consider long term growth for products and services as a positive influencing factor with regard to investment being made by their organisations over the next twelve months.

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Q1 saw €545m more collected

by the Exchequer than expected,

unemployment fell further to 10%, and €1bn transacted in the property sector.

The IMF warned of an extended period of low growth for developed economies increasing

the difficulty of reducing debt accumulated during the financial

crisis and also restricting monetary policy easing.

Negative interest rates in Denmark expose corporate

clients to charges for depositing cash from Banks such as Danske. Fears that current account holders face fees for deposits as

commercial banks pass on the effect of the ‘repo rate’.

IMF calls for Asset Managers to have liquidity and capital buffer levels scrutinised in a

similar manner to banks. Asset Management sectors have

grown aggressively as banks can no longer absorb the same risk levels and have been forced to withdraw from several markets.

A partially observed ceasefire in place since February has allowed the extent of the

economic damage to eastern parts of Ukraine become clear.

Q1 industrial production is down over 20% & inflation increased 61% with the IMF forcing the

Government to inflate utility prices.

Eurozone leaders summoned to

emergency meeting in Brussels in final

attempt to prevent a failed bailout of Greece, where c.60 businesses are shutting down daily since the start of 2015.

Greece misses its €1.5bn IMF repayment and had a last

minute request to extend its current bailout programme

rejected by Eurozone finance ministers. Ensuring capital

control measures enforced by government result in cash-outs at ATMs & escalated tensions.

In a bid to stem the turmoil in its financial markets, China has made the unprecedented move of declaring it illegal for anyone

owning over 5% stake in a company to sell for 6 months. Effectively suspending real trading, China’s

equities are being held hostage by extreme state support measures.

The Greek stock market reopened with the benchmark share index down over 20% and share prices among the banks down 30%. Alpha, Eurobank, Nation al Bank of Green,

and Piraeus all made statements attempting to reassure confidence in depositors. The government is under pressure to

reach a deal with creditors before its next repayment of €3bn is due to the ECB.

US oil prices hit a 6 year low as Chinese stock prices continue to fall

along with the value of the Yuan against the USD, making imports

even more challenging for the world’s largest

energy consumer.

S&P downgrades Japanese debt rating

from AA to A+ sighting Prime Minister Abe’s

economic policies as the driving factor. Fellow rating agency Fitch

slashed their rating of Japan’s debt in April.

Berlin has agreed new policies for

handling migrants as Angela Merkel faces increased

domestic pressure to curb the number of migrants flooding to Germany’s boarders.

M+A transactions in Q2 and Q3 topped $1tn for the first

time in 15 years, with no one sector accounting for over

15% of the deals. 2015 is on course to be a record breaking year, with YTE value of M&A deals globally at $3.17tn, a 32% increase from 2014.

Investec Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index

showed strong growth in Irish Manufacturing with job creation

at its highest since 1998. The weakened Euro against GBP/USD sighted as a significant

factor in export demand.

The property rental market in Dublin continues to inflate with rent rates in the ‘commuter belt’ increasing 14% on last

year. Severe supply shortage is driving rates

upwards.

Central bank data indicates that mortgage arrears pose a real threat

to sustainable economic growth in Ireland, with €8.3bn worth of mortgage accounts in long term arrears. For the banks, this news is softened by rising house prices

which underwrite this debt.

Revenue commissioners collected €2.1bn in tax revenues during the first 6 months of the year, up 11.7% on last year. Strong

increases in corporate, income, and consumer tax revenues

extends greater comfort to the Government’s October budget.

UK announced plans to cut its corporate tax rate from 20% to 18%

by 2020. Northern Ireland is also seeking to gain autonomy over its corporation tax rate

by 2017.

Irish bond yields, along with most European bonds,

traded better than expected in the wake of a reasonably calm conclusion to ‘Grexit’

concerns.

Kingspan reported a 40% rise in revenues during the first half of 2015 at €1.24bn. Estimated annual profits are to increase by €100m. Acquisitions have driven

much of this growth, notably the take-overs of Joris Ide

(€320m) and Vicwest (€139m).

AIB has reported an

18% rise year-on-year in loan

applications from SMEs

during the first half of 2015.

Paddy Power & Betfair announce

merger to create ‘Paddy Power

Betfair PLC’ with a stock market

value of c. €8bn.

In its review of the Irish economy, the OECD recognised that it is the fastest growing of the 31 OECD states. It also noted key

risk factors such as slower global growth trend, another property

boom/bust, changes to corporate tax policy at EU level, and Brexit.

NAMA announced the sale of its

largest portfolio of loans known

as ‘project Jewel’ for €1.85bn to

Hammerson and Allianz.

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Key Econimic Events and Trends

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CFOs are currently viewing corporate bonds as the most attractive option for funding their business.

The preference for internal funding has dropped sharply with a decrease of 38% comparative to Q1 2015 results.

Equity is viewed as the least attractive financing option, with a net 7% of CFOs surveyed considering it an unattractive source of funding.

There is a change in trend with regards to the apparent availability of credit over the past two years, with a clear peak in Q1 2015.

Net 21% of CFOs polled believe new credit to be easily available for Irish Corporates, down from 64% in Q1 2015.

A net 15% perceive the overall cost of credit as high, a decrease of 12% compared to Q1 2015.

Section 1

Figure 1: How do you currently rate the following options as a source of funding for your company?

Figure 2: How would you rate the overall cost of new credit for Irish corporates?

The economy and your company – financing, debt and credit

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Overall, there is an opinion that new credit is not as easy to avail of compared to six months ago, showing a clear correlation to the results in Figure 2.

The largest absolute decrease in perceived availability has been from domestic banks, with a net 30% reduction. These outcomes align with Q4 2014’s results where 39% of CFOs believed domestic credit to be easily available.

CFOs rated all four sources of credit as being easily available.

There is a more optimistic outlook regarding the financial prospects over the past year, with an increase of 13% on Q4 2014 number.

55% of those surveyed had a somewhat more optimistic outlook, a significant improvement on optimism in Q1 2015 (37%).

Figure 3: How would you rate the overall availability of new credit for Irish corporates compared to six months ago from the following sources?

Figure 4: Compared with three months ago how do you feel about the financial prospects for your company?

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Gearing ratios have decreased at the slowest rate in two years due to the perceived increase in availability and a lower cost of debt earlier in the year.

A net 9% of respondents report a decrease in gearing compared to 12 months ago. This compares with a net 45% of respondents in Q1 2015 who reported a reduction in gearing over the previous 12 months.

More than half (52%) of the CFOs surveyed do not consider now as a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheets. This is a reversal of the growing appetite for risk in Q1 2015. This coincides with the current concerns in relation to the performance of the European and Chinese economies along with uncertainty relating to the upcoming budget and general election.

Figure 5: How has your company’s gearing changed since this time last year?

Figure 6: Do you think it is a good time to take greater risk onto your company’s balance sheet?

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Figure 8: How would you rate the level of external financial and economic uncertainty facing your business?

CFOs are continuing to view market risk as the biggest threat to business over the next 12 months, with 50% of CFOs ( 55% in Q1 2015) perceiving it as the largest danger.

There has been a significant increase in perceived external uncertainty facing businesses. Opinion since Q1 2015 has changed, with a net 32% of CFOs viewing the external environment as uncertain, an increase from 9%.

This is directly related to the recent events in Greece and the concerns amongst the CFOs in relation to where the European and Chinese economies are headed.

Interestingly, no CFOs surveyed viewed the level of external uncertainty as being very high or very low.

Figure 7: What category of risk poses the largest threat to your business over the next 12 months?

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51% of CFOs believe recent events in Greece have damaged prospects for achieving a stable and closely integrated European Monetary Union in the longer term.

In contrast, 21% feel the recent events in Greece have improved prospects somewhat. This suggests that the CFOs surveyed believe the plan put in place by Euro zone leaders means the currency union is capable of withstanding a Grexit.

Figure 9: To what extent have recent events in Greece changed the prospects for achieving a stable and closely integrated European Monetary Union in the longer term?

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Deloitte PerspectiveThe results of our survey show that CFOs perceive an increased level of uncertainty facing their business. This has been driven by concerns that macro factors, outside of the company control such as recent events in Greece, will have negative impacts on their businesses in the remainder of the year. CFOs continue to be optimistic about their financial prospects, but uncertainties surrounding economic, market and industry trends have reduced the appetite for risk with less than half of CFOs (48%) saying now is a good time to take risk on their balance sheet.

CFOs surveyed are continuing to find financing their business less costly but there is a significant decrease in credit being perceived to be easily available for Irish corporates. Despite this, domestic banks continue to be rated the easiest source from which new credit can be obtained with corporate bonds being rated as the most attractive source of funding.

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Section 2 Corporate priorities/challenges for CFOs’ businesses in the next twelve months.

65% of CFOs believe their corporate strategy is expansionary. This figure is down from 82% in the last quarter. Just over one third of CFOs now believe that their corporate strategy is defensive.

This may be related to corporate risk appetite and sentiment fading in the face of weakness in emerging markets. Ireland’s recovery from the recession has been punctuated by a series of external shocks, of which weakness in the emerging markets is the latest.

Consistent with previous quarters, long term growth for products and services remains a positive influencing factor for investment, representing the confidence finance leaders have in their products and services.

Cost and availability of external finance are among the factors which contributed to the highest neutral responses.

CFOs are focusing efforts on ensuring business performance and managing operating and balance sheet risk as a way to combat uncertainty in the marketplace.

Figure 10: Would you consider your corporate strategy expansionary:

Figure 11: What effect do the following factors have on your company’s investment plans for the next 12 months?

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Figure 13: Please state to what degree the following strategies are likely to be a priority for your business over the next twelve months?

Revenues, operating cash flows and capital expenditure are expected to be the metrics which will show the most significant increase over the coming 12 months, these metrics align with CFO priorities for company growth.

CFOs believe operating costs, discretionary spending and levels of cash and cash equivalents on balance sheet metrics will experience the largest declines; this supports the objective for cost control and cost reductions to enhance growth opportunities.

Figure 12: How are the following metrics for your company likely to change over the next 12 months?

The least amount of change is expected in the areas of equity and bond issuance given the high costs associated with these forms of finance.

The focus among CFOs is to expand organically in both current and new markets. In contrast, expanding by acquisition at home and abroad are not key priorities. CFOs are intent on cost reduction and cost control. In addition, CFOs are not prioritising increasing operational or capital expenditure, however, CFOs expect capital expenditure to increase over the next twelve months.

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74% of CFOs believe that their organisation is on schedule for implementing the updated accounting standards.

16% of CFOs consider that their organisation is behind schedule with implementing the updated accounting standards.

Finance Business Partners are a valuable finance resource that often spend a significant amount of time on tasks not directly related to their role; e.g. on data manipulation, reconciliations and reports that are of no direct value to the business.

40% of CFOs believe that Finance Business Partners should spend more time interacting and communicating with the business in order to be most effective in their roles.

Figure 14: How far advanced is your organisation in planning for new / updated accounting standards e.g. IFRS 4 / IFRS 9?

Figure 15: How should your Finance Business Partners spend their time to be most effective in their roles?

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Figure 17: What capabilities are required for Finance Staff to be most effective in their roles?

CFOs believe retaining their current employees is a top priority. But, the biggest challenge CFOs face to retaining and attracting talent are the lack of development and progression opportunities available.

It is essential that CFOs develop programmes and processes that foster talent retention and that they do not leave career development to chance.

CFOs need to adopt a talent management strategy to focus on retaining employees with critical skills who are at a high risk of departure and capable leaders who can advance their companies.

Analytical skills are deemed to be the most effective skillset for finance staff carrying out the roles.

Commercial acumen, strategic thinking, decision making and communication & influence also contribute towards finance staff being effective in their roles.

Figure 16: What do you feel are the biggest challenges to retaining and attracting talent?

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The majority of CFOs believe that their Finance strategy was either fully aligned or broadly aligned to support the current challenges in their organisation, with no CFO indicating that it was not aligned. Finance has a key role to play in delivering the organisations strategic objectives and the finance function strategy is core to ensuring that alignment.

The two most important indicators when monitoring the performance of the Finance Function, from the CFOs perspective are reporting timelines / quality and analysis quality / decision support.

These metrics provide finance leaders with accurate information to support effective decision making and assist by facilitating the business to understand its progress on growth goals.

Figure 18: How well does your Finance Strategy support the current challenges in your organisation?

Figure 19: What is the most important indicator to monitor the performance of your Finance Function?

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Deloitte PerspectiveExpansion, growth and finance talent are key corporate priorities emerging from the Q3 2015 survey. While these themes were present in previous quarters, this quarter, CFOs take a more measured approach. In Q3 2015, three out of five CFOs believe their corporate strategy to be expansionary, a decrease of 17% on Q1 2015.

Introducing new products & services and organic growth – an expansionary strategy remains the top priority for CFOs. However, CFOs have sharpened their focus on defensive strategies citing reducing costs and increasing cash flow as priorities. Unsurprisingly, market uncertainty is the most unfavourable factor when companies are considering their investment plans.

To facilitate this growth and expansion, CFOs intend on increasing revenues, cash flows and levels of cash on balance sheet. CFOs expect investments will be made in new product development, capital expenditure and research and development and that they will be the financial metrics that will experience the biggest increase over the coming 12 months.

Talent retention continues to be a top priority for CFOs. A key challenge to retaining talent is the lack of development and progression opportunities available. Building a sustainable organisation is about having the training and development model to grow staff capabilities, retain critical talent and ensure a strong pipeline. Focusing on developing existing talent could go some way to helping the Finance Function build the capabilities they need. CFOs are seeking finance talent with analytical, decision making skills, commercial acumen and strategic thinking capabilities to be effective in their roles.

The performance of a Finance Function is critical to the long term growth of an organisation. Reporting timelines and quality continues to be the key metric used by CFOs when evaluating the performance of the Finance Function. Analysis quality and decision support is now the second most important indicator for CFOs in grading the performance of the Finance Function, highlighting the role that Finance has in strategy advisory and implementation. The ability for accurate forecasting is emerging as the third key performance indicator for CFOs which links with CFOs ability for enhanced long term growth. Despite the importance of talent retention, it was not rated as a key indicator by CFOs surveyed in monitoring the performance of the Finance Function.

As growth returns, the ability of the Finance Function to provide the organisation with insightful management reporting is becoming more important. CFOs want to understand whether the investments they are making are targeted correctly to deliver sustainable and profitable growth. Clear, timely finance reporting, developed by commercially astute finance teams working with accurate data, the right mix of KPIs, can deliver this insight.

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The majority of CFOs believe that budget 2016 will show Ireland in a stronger financial position (88%) than previous years. This positive opinion is underlined by the increase in CFOs who believe that Ireland is in a significantly stronger situation up 13% on last year to 19%. Only 13% believe the budget will show no change to Ireland’s financial position. It is notable that for the second year in a row no respondents consider the country to be in a weaker financial state.

When asked what key priority areas you would like to see in Budget 2016, 3 key priorities emerged being Tax (the burden of the effective rate of

income tax), Social Housing (in response to the housing shortage) and Public Spending (capital investments, education and communications infrastructure).

CFOs generally view the factors posed as low risk. Monetary policy and the possibility of higher interest rates (24%) are cited as the highest risk by CFOs this quarter. Following on from this, there are no stand out areas of risk. The Euro Crisis and the General Election are both classed as low risk at 11%.

Figure 20: Do you believe Budget 2016 will show Ireland to be in a stronger financial position than it has been for several years?

Figure 21: How do you assess the level of risk to your business posed by the following factors?

Section 3 Pre-Budget 2016 and General Election 2016

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Fiscal Policy, Education and Labour are expected to have a positive impact on business over the next five years. CFOs believe that monetary policy and urban town planning will have little effect and general levels of regulation will have a negative impact on business.

Outside of fiscal policy and tax, the Government is expected to have the most positive impact around people, labour market and people. Budget 2016, which focused on the work-force, making it more attractive to work

and getting more people back into the workplace positively aligns to this expectation.

Figure 22: Thinking about the way in which the outcome of the upcoming General Election could affect business over the next five years, do you think policy change in the following areas will be positive, will have little or no effect or will be negative for business?

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Deloitte PerspectiveIreland’s economy is likely to become the fastest growing economy in the EU for the second year in a row. This continued strong performance has resulted in the first positive Irish budget in 8 years. The increase in economic activity is broadly based and we are seeing both the domestic and the exporting sectors performing strongly. This positivity has been reflected in CFOs opinions, with the majority believing that budget 2016 shows Ireland in a stronger position than it has been for several years.

The 2016 budget aims to maintain growth by reducing taxes, continued commitment to job creation and capital investment. The reduction in the marginal rate of tax below 50% will make Ireland a more attractive destination for highly skilled talent. The increase in capital expenditure will enhance the productivity capacity of the economy and thus continue to generate economic growth. Budget 2016 has strengthened Ireland’s competitive advantage as a destination of choice for investment by working toward a best in class Knowledge Development Box, similar to IP / Patent Box regimes elsewhere in Europe. The investment in education and training helps to transform the kinds of employment on offer, as businesses can easily recruit skilled workers. CFOs see the upcoming election having a mainly positive impact on Tax, Education and Labour while few CFOs are concerned that this will have a negative impact on business.

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Confidence has fallen among European business according to Deloitte’s latest European CFO Survey. However, the results show a distinct shift within Europe with companies in the south and periphery of the continent more confident and willing to take risk than those in northern countries.

Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte UK said: “This pessimism contrasts with a brighter outlook in the south and edges of Europe. CFOs in Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain are among the most optimistic of our group with higher capex and employment intentions than in central and northern Europe. The outlook for revenues and operating margins for Ireland, Italy and Spain are above the European average. This mirrors the improved growth outlook in Europe’s periphery with Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain all having seen significant upgrades to growth forecasts for both 2015 and 2016.”

The EMEA biannual survey, which collated the results of surveys run by

Deloitte member firms in 15 European countries, analysed the views of 1,298 chief financial officers (CFOs).

Southern and peripheral European countries report higher levels of optimism than in northern countries. 58% of Ireland’s CFOs report growing optimism, with a high proportion of CFOs in Spain (54%), Poland (50%) and Portugal (47%) also more optimistic. Optimism is weakest in northern European economies with just 14% of CFOs in both France and Norway saying they are more optimistic, followed by Germany and the UK (both 18%).

Risk appetite has declined across Europe, just 33% of CFOs say now is a good time to take risk onto their balance sheets, down from 38% in Q1. Risk appetite is highest in Italy, where 56% of CFOs say now is a good time to take risks, followed by Ireland (48%), the UK and Spain (both 47%). Risk appetite is lowest in Norway and Germany (20%).

Figure 23: Compared to three/six months ago, how do you feel about the financial prospects for your company?

Figure 24: Is this a good time to be taking greater risk onto your balance sheet?

Section 4 Ireland has an improved growth outlook while European business confidence heads south

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64% of CFOs expect their company’s revenues to rise in the next twelve months, down slightly from 67% in Q1. Optimism about revenues is highest in Italy, where 84% expect revenues to rise, Ireland (82%) and Spain (75%). They are lowest in Austria and France (42%), Netherlands (44%) and Norway (51%).

41% of European CFOs say they expect their company to increase capital expenditure in the next twelve months, with 15% expecting a decrease. 70% of CFOs in Ireland expect capital spending to increase, followed by Italy (58%) and Spain (54%). The smallest increases in capital expenditure are forecast in Norway (29%), France (30%) and Russia (33%).

Figure 25: In your view how are revenues for your company likely to change over the next 12 months?

Figure 26: In your view how are capital expenditures for your company likely to change over the next 12 months?

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Tom Cassin Partner, Audit T: +353 1 417 2210 E: tcassin@deloitte.ie

Pádraic Whelan Partner, Taxation T: +353 1 417 2848 E: pwhelan@deloitte.ie

Michael Flynn Partner, Corporate Finance T: +353 1 417 2515 E: miflynn@deloitte.ie

Cathal Treacy Partner, Audit T: +353 61 435511 E: ctreacy@deloitte.ie

Danny Murray Partner, Audit T: +353 1 417 2974 E: danmurray@deloitte.ie

Alan Flanagan Partner, Management Consulting T: +353 1 417 2873 E: aflanagan@deloitte.ie

Shane Mohan Partner, Management Consulting T: +353 1 417 2543 E: smohan@deloitte.ie

Daniel Gaffney Director, Management Consulting T: +353 1 417 2349 E: dgaffney@deloitte.ie

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