the decline of the extended family - umn historyusers.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/hist3797/lecture...

The Decline of the Extended Family

Steven Ruggles

Frédéric Le Play (1806-1882)


Durkheim 1888

Burgess1916

Ogburn1932

Parsons1944

Goode1963

Peter Laslett (1915-2001)

Village of Clayworth

Percent of Households with Extended Kin: Preindustrial English Communities and 1961

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

100 communities, 1584-1821

England and Wales,1961

Simple family

Extended family

Multiple family

Laslett-Hammel Classification

English Demographic Conditions, ca. 1725

Life expectancy at birthFemales 34.8Males 32.5

Median age at first marriageFemales 25.2Males 26.1

Mean generation length 34.7

Percent females celibate 14.1

Total fertility rate 4.6

Population Pyramid

20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20

0 - 45 - 9

10 - 1415 - 1920 - 2425 - 2930 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 4950 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 6970 - 7475 - 79

80+

Age

Population (%)

Males Females

MotherBorn: 1550Dies: 1617

Marries: 1575Children Born: 4

FatherBorn: 1544Dies: 1610

Marries: 1575

SonBorn: 1576Dies: 1576

DaughterBorn: 1581Dies: 1660

Marries: 1604Children: 7

DaughterBorn: 1579Dies: 1639

Never marries

SonBorn: 1588Dies:1670

Marries: 1618

Son-in-lawBorn: 1577Dies: 1640

Marries: 1604

Daughter-in-lawBorn: 1590Dies: 1685

Marries: 1618Children: 14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990Census year

Perc

ent w

ith c

hild

ren

White

Black

Percent of Persons Aged 65+ Residing with their Own Children aged 18+

David Kertzer (1995): “Nuclear Reincorporation Theory”

Tamara Hareven (1994): “Multigenerational families were rare, and only resorted to in cases of necessity, primarily when elderly parents were too frail to maintain a separate residence.”

Percent of elderly residing with adult children, by value of real estate held: United States, 1850

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

$1-99 100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999

2,000-4,999

5,000-9,999

10,000-39,999

40,000+

Value of real estate (dollars)

Perc

ent w

ith a

dult

child

ren

Percent deviation in intergenerational coresidence of each occupational group from nonfarm average:

Men aged 30-39 residing with parents, U.S., 1850-2000

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

1850 1860 1870 1880 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Low status Mid status High status

core

side

less

than

ave

rage

co

resi

de m

ore

than

ave

rage

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990Census year

Perc

ent w

ith c

hild

ren

White

Black

Percent of Persons Aged 65+ Residing with their Own Children aged 18+

Percent of elderly (65+) residing with adult child (18+):United States, 1880

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Aged with chronicillness

Other aged

Perc

ent c

ores

iden

t

Percent of the Labor Force Employed in Agriculture, United States, 1800-2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Perc

ent

Percent of elderly (65+) with children: Estimating the impact of Social Security

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990Census year

Perc

ent w

ith c

hild

ren

Percent of elderly (65+) with children: Estimating the impact of Social Security

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990Census year

Perc

ent w

ith c

hild

ren

Assuming zero Social Security

income

Thomas H. Eliot: Council for the committee that drafted the Social Security Bill, 1933

“In the old days, the old-age assistance problem was not so great so long as most people lived on farms, had big families, and at least some of the children stayed on the farm.”

Khartoum, CBS-Sudan

1973 Census Tapes arrive at Muller Media (New York) via Barcelona

Dhaka, BangladeshBureau of Statistics

IPUMS Participating Countries

ParticipatingAgreement PendingNegotiating

Northwest European and North American Exceptionalism

The “Hajnal Line”

John Hajnal

Table 1. Measures of living arrangements of individuals and couples aged 65 or older

Percent residing with:

Any kin Descendants Three generationsNineteenth century

Britain 62.3 50.2 23.5Nordic Countries 48.7 46.4 14.5North America 73.3 66.4 32.3

Twentieth and twenty-first centuriesLatin America 71.8 59.1 33.9Middle East 52.8 47.3 26.2Sub-Saharan Africa 78.1 66.9 46.5East Asia 79.8 69.6 45.9Northwestern Europe 34.4 27.1 11.2Eastern/Southeastern Europe 42.4 38.7 19.1United States 39.7 32.1 12.5

Overall mean 60.6 51.6 28.2Standard Deviation 20.2 17.6 14.0Number of census samples 98 88 88

Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin

0

20

40

60

80

100

1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year

Per

cent

with

kin

BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaWest Asia/North AfricaSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe


0

20

40

60

80

100

1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year

Per

cent

with

kin



0

20

40

60

80

100

1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year

Per

cent

with

kin


Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with descendant

0

20

40

60

80

100

1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year

Per

cent

with

des

cend

ants

BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe

Percent of persons aged 65+ residing with three generations

0

20

40

60

1840 1870 1900 1930 1960 1990Year

Perc

ent w

ith th

ree

gene

ratio

ns


Table 2. Independent variables

Name Description Mean Std. Dev.

Agricultural employment Log of percent of men aged 18-64 employed in agriculture 2.8 0.9Percent elderly Percent of population aged 65 or older 7.3 4.2Marital fertility Age-standardized marital fertility ratio 64.8 21.7Female marriage age Singulate mean age at marriage for women 23.2 1.8Male marriage age Singulate mean age at marriage for men 26.3 1.6Unmarried elderly women Percent of 65+ who are women without spouses 44.7 4.5Elderly couples Percent of 65+ who are residing with spouse 38.4 4.8De jure census De jure census enumeration rule 0.6 0.5

living arrangements of the aged

With kin With descendants Three generationB B B

Agricultural employment 7.7 1.4 *** 8.04 1.10 *** 6.44 1.13 ***Percent elderly -4.1 0.3 *** -3.83 0.28 *** -3.21 0.29 ***Marital fertility -0.2 0.1 ** -0.15 0.05 ** -0.18 0.05 ***Female marriage age -1.7 1.0 -2.70 0.78 ** -1.99 0.80 *Male marriage age 2.6 1.0 * 4.35 0.82 *** 2.76 0.84 **Unmarried elderly women 0.6 0.3 * 1.16 0.21 *** 1.60 0.22 ***Elderly couples 0.4 0.2 0.95 0.18 *** 0.88 0.18 ***De jure census -6.3 1.7 *** -3.39 1.40 *** -4.15 1.43 **

12.7 23.2 -71.61 18.26 -83.55 18.72 ***0.85 0.89 0.81

N 97 88 88

Std. Error

Table 3. OLS regressions of agricultural employment and demographic characteristics on

Adjusted R Square

Std. Error Std. Error

Constant

Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with kin

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100Year

Per

cent

with

kin



0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100Year

Per

cent

with

kin



0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100Year

Per

cent

with

kin


Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with descendants

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100Observed percent with descendants

Pred

icte

d pe

rcen

t with

des

cend

ents



0

20

40

60

80

100


Pred

icte

d pe

rcen

t with

des

cend

ents



0

20

40

60

80

100


Pred

icte

d pe

rcen

t with

des

cend

ents


Predicted and observed percent of persons aged 65+ residing with three generations

0

15

30

45

60

0 15 30 45 60Observed percent three generations

Pred

icte

d pe

rcen

t thr

ee g

ener

atio

ns BritainNordic CountriesCanadaUnited StatesLatin AmericaMiddle EastSub-Saharan AfricaEast AsiaNorthwestern EuropeEastern/SE Europe


0

15

30

45

60


Pre

dict

ed p

erce

nt th

ree

gene

ratio



0

15

30

45

60


Pred

icte

d pe

rcen

t thr

ee g

ener

atio



John Gray and family, Minnesota ca. 1860

Robert Orrock and family, Minnesota 1857

Unknown family, ca. 1880

Unknown family, Minnesota 1878

William Moore and family, 1855

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