the decision will be made anyway – how can analysis help? “too late, we’ve already gone to...

The decision will be made anyway – How can analysis help?“too late, we’ve already gone to print”

Keith Goodman

Jason Field

Dstl

© Dstl 2009

21 April 2023 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Menu

• Background– Why evidence-based decision-making

– Context of MOD analysis

– SDSR

• Supporting decision-making– Timing

– Push vs pull

– Exploitation, Exploitation, Exploitation

• Measurement– Next time…

© Dstl 2009


Analysis ...Analysis ...

• The application of scientific methods to assist executive decision-makers

• brings together

– objectives, options and assumptions

– data

– expert judgement

• examines their implications in an iterative way, in close collaboration with problem owner and other stakeholders …

• … through the use of models

© Dstl 2009


Why does UK MOD do analysis?

• UK Government aspires to evidence-based decision making

– scientific evidence

• HM Treasury delegates significant financial authority to MOD on the basis that processes are in place to ensure “good” decisions are made

– independent scrutiny

• The future is uncertain

– multiple potential worlds & scenarios

• Many decisions are complex and interdependent

– models

© Dstl 2009


Strategy

Force/Campaign/Society

Systems of Systems/Operational/Groups

Systems/Tactical/Individuals

Physical/Physiological Processes

data

context

incr

easi

ngly

sub

ject

ive increasingly uncertain

Hierarchy of analysis

Measures ofPolicy Effectiveness

Measures ofForce Effectiveness

Measures ofSystem Effectiveness

Measures ofPerformance

DimensionalParameters

© Dstl 2009


The Defence Green Paper“Adaptability and Partnership: Issues for a Strategic Defence Review”

• Published 3 Feb 2010• Accompanied by

– Future Character of Conflict– Global Strategic Trends

• To publicly open the debate ahead of the anticipated Defence Review

• Where should we set the balance between focusing on our territory and region and engaging threats at a distance?

• What approach should we take if we employ the Armed Forces to address threats at distance?

• What contribution should the Armed Forces make in ensuring security and contributing to resilience within the UK?

• How could we more effectively employ the Armed Forces in support of wider efforts to prevent conflict and strengthen international stability?

• Do our current international defence and security relationships require rebalancing in the longer term?

• Should we further integrate our forces with those of key allies and partners?

• Should we refocus our current efforts on Afghanistan?

1. Uncertainty & Affordability

2. Complexity & the Use of Force

3. Adaptability & Influence

4. Partnership

5. People, Equipment & Structures

6. Key Questions for the Future SDR

© Dstl 2009


Political change

• General Election: 6 May 2010

• First UK hung parliament since 1974

– end of 13 years in office for Labour

• Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition agreed

– Prime Minister: David Cameron

– Defence Secretary: Dr Liam Fox

– inherited a difficult financial position

• Immediate consequences:

– National Security Council created

– formal start of Strategic Defence & Security Review

– fixed-term parliaments: next election in May 2015

"Dear chief secretary, I'm afraid there is no money. Kind regards - and good luck!"

"Dear chief secretary, I'm afraid there is no money. Kind regards - and good luck!"

© Dstl 2009


Shaping the SDSR“The SDSR will make a clean break from the military and political mindset of cold war policies.It will be strategic, cross-government and comprehensive,covering all areas of defence and security.” SofS for Defence RUSI 14/6/2010

“The review will need to provide a step change, not salami-slicing. We will have to bring defence policy, plans, commitments andResources into balance, confront the harsh facts of the economicclimate in which we operate …..” SofS for Defence Hansard HofC 21/6/10

“Let me sum up the Ministry of Defence’s approach to the SDSR.First, relevance: our posture and capabilities must be relevant to the world we now live inSecondly, realism: resources are tight for the country as a whole, defence is no exception Thirdly, responsibility: as a nation, …” SofS for Defence RUSI 14/6/2010

“… protecting our way of life and providing security for our citizens is the primary and overriding duty of Government, that is why the SDSR must become a national endeavour and all in Government must have the political resilience, strength, will and resolve to see us through.” SofS for Defence Hansard HofC 21/6/10

© Dstl 2009


The SDSR Analysis“… So, let me set out the process of analysis we are going through at the moment. We are contrasting cost savings and the capability implications with the risks that we face in the real global security environment. This means assessing any proposed change in a current programme or platform, against a series of criteria including:

• First, the cost saving in years zero to 5, 5 to 10 and 10 plus.

• Second, the capability implications - what capability will be lost as a result of this decision and what other assets do we possess that might give us the same or a similar capability?

• Third, the operational implications - what operations that we currently undertake, or are likely to undertake, will we be unable to undertake as a result of this change?

• Fourth, the ability to regenerate the capability, at what cost and in what timeframe.

• And fifth, the risk in the real world that this capability currently protects us from or is likely to protect us from in the foreseeable future.”

SofS for Defence, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors 13 August 2010

© Dstl 2009


Analysis for the SDSR

• Force structure Analysis

• Workstrand support

• Synthesis

• But …

– not talking about the detail of the SDSR, but a reflection on the role of analysis in decision making.

© Dstl 2009


Decision timing

Analysis

Politics

Industry impact

Bias

Pre-conceptions

Other?

Advice

Question (?)

Syn

thes

is

© Dstl 2009


So …

• Analysis should be

– timely

– useful

– understandable

© Dstl 2009


Timeliness

• Rate of production of analysis vs rate of progress in context/decision/question

– analysis slower than context

• chaos

– analysis = context

• catch-up

– analysis faster than context

• convergent, optimised

Timely delivery of analysis

– pre-emptive research (shelf-stacking)

– modular programme design

– logical interface/access tools

– being ‘part of the team’

© Dstl 2009


Exploitation

Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR

Push vs Pull

– Support to critical decision points

• timing and scope– Analysing the ‘So what?’

• cost, effectiveness, risk– Trust and confidence

– Effectiveness in communicating analysis

Meaning analysis done ‘to customers’, not confined to a pre-submitted question

Meaning analysis done ‘for customers’, generally confined to their pre-submitted question

© Dstl 2009


Exploitation


Push vs Pull

– Quick pace

• Rapidly delivered advice– High-level

• ‘big-hand, tiny map’

© Dstl 2009


Exploitation


Push vs Pull

– Implementation. ‘So What?’

• detail, deeper analysis• programme implications• test and validate assumptions• greater consideration of complexity of issues• less time pressure (perhaps?)

© Dstl 2009


Pre (and during) SDSR Post-SDSR

Time pressure

Complexity

Rapid analysisUtilisation of the pre-stacked shelves

More considered designMore detail‘So What?’

© Dstl 2009


Exploitation


Push vs Pull

– Closeness to decision-makers, independence is important

– Good exploitation pre-SDSR could increase desire for Evidence-based decision support post-SDSR (including ‘business as usual’)

– Exploitation of ‘pulled’ analysis easier (in theory?)

© Dstl 2009


Exploitation


Push vs Pull

Important

Not important

Asked Not asked

Less evidence-based decisions(Poor decisions?)

© Dstl 2009


So …

• Analysis is of utility within the SDSR

– bespoke analysis and ‘meta-analysis’

• Analysis support to SDSR will continue

• Lessons can be learnt that will help develop the use of analysis for evidence-based decision-making

– not just for Strategic Reviews

© Dstl 2009


Next time?

• Fixed-term elections

• Regular Strategic Defence Reviews

– every Parliament?

• Impact for Analysis? • know (in advance) its coming

• know the process

• be a part of the process

• know what’s important, and the metrics

• know the questions

EndQuestions?

Keith Goodman

Dstl Portsdown WestPortsdown Hill RoadHampshirePO17 6ADtel +44 (0) 23 9253 [email protected]

Jason Field

Dstl Fort HalsteadSevenoaksKent TN14 7BPtel +44 (0) 1959 [email protected]

the decision will be made anyway – how can analysis help? “too late, we’ve already gone to...

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