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The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman NCAR/MMM Introduction/ Motivation

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Page 1: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

The Challenge of Convective Forecasting

“Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict”

ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006

Morris Weisman NCAR/MMM

Introduction/Motivation

Page 2: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman
Page 3: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

“Weather prediction is the principal reason for the support which we are given by our fellow citizens……

I believe it is time for convective-storm scientists to apply our knowledge to this purpose and to subject our products to its discipline……

……..The task is not trivial…..”

Doug Lilly, Q. J. of the Royal Meteor. Soc., 1990

Numerical prediction of thunderstorms—has its time come?

Page 4: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman
Page 5: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

QuickTime™ and aBMP decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Initialized 05 Nov 2005 00 UTC

Reflectivity forecast Composite NEXRAD Radar

Page 6: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Reflectivity forecast Composite NEXRAD Radar

06 Nov 2005

31 h valid 07 UTC 08 UTC

(tiff)

Page 7: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Evansville Tornado ???

Well, actually from Greg Thompson’s Web page

Page 8: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

WRF Modeling System

Obs Data,Analyses

Post Processors,Verification

WRF Software Infrastructure

Dynamic Cores

ARW Core

NMM Core…

Standard Physics Interface

Physics Packages

StaticInitialization

3DVAR DataAssimilation

Page 9: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

• Terrain-following hydrostatic pressure vertical coordinate

• Arakawa C-grid, two-way interacting nested grids (soon)

• 3rd order Runge-Kutta split-explicit time differencing

• Conserves mass, momentum, entropy, and scalars using flux form prognostic equations

• 5th order upwind or 6th order centered differencing for advection

• Multiple physics combinations (many converted from MM5), Noah and RUC land-surface submodels

WRF-ARW Mass Coordinate Core

Page 10: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

WRF Model Physics

• “Plug-compatible” interface defined for physics modules

• Physics options implemented in WRF:

– Microphysics: Kessler-type (no-ice) Lin et al. (graupel

included),WSM6 NCEP Cloud3, Cloud5,

Ferrier– Cumulus Convection: New Kain-Fritsch, Grell Ensemble

Betts-Miller-Janjic – Shortwave Radiation: Dudhia (MM5), Goddard, GFDL– Longwave Radiation: RRTM, GFDL– Turbulence: Prognostic TKE,

Smagorinsky, constant diffusion– PBL: MRF, MYJ, YSU– Surface Layer: Similarity theory, MYJ– Land-Surface: 5-layer soil model, RUC LSM

Noah unified LSM, HRLDAS

Page 11: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Idealized WRF Simulations

PBL LES, x = 50 m Density current, x = 100 m

Supercell thunderstorm, x = 1 km

Mountain wave, x = 20 km

Baroclinic wave, x = 100 km

5 min 10 min 15 min

(Chin-Hoh Moeng)

Page 12: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

WRF Realtime Convective Forecasting

May 1 – July 31 4 km 00 UTC -- 36h

2003, 2004, 2005

Page 13: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

00Z 10 June – 13Z 11 June 2003

Page 14: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Real-time WRF 4 km BAMEX Forecast

Composite NEXRAD RadarReflectivity forecast

Initialized 00 UTC 9 June 03

QuickTime™ and aBMP decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Page 15: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Real-time WRF 4 km BAMEX Forecast

Initialized 00 UTC 10 June 03

Reflectivity forecast Composite NEXRAD Radar

Page 16: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Realtime WRF 4 km BAMEX Forecast

Composite NEXRAD Radar30 h Reflectivity Forecast

Missed

Valid 6/12/03 06Z

= MCS “position”

Correspond

Correspond

Page 17: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

1 10 100 km

Cumulus ParameterizationResolved Convection

LES PBL Parameterization

Two Stream Radiation3-D Radiation

Model Physics in High Resolution NWP

Physics“No Man’s Land”

Page 18: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

4 km? 2 km?BAMEX OBS, Reflectivity

100m?

How much resolution do we need??George Bryan NCAR/MMM (Thursday morning)

What does it take to simulate convection??

Page 19: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

ARW2 BREF

NMM4ARW4

0500 UTC 29 April 2005: 1 km model reflectivity, NEXRAD BREF

Page 20: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Power Spectra for 3 h Precipitation

12Z forecasts,15-18 Z accum precip,valid 4 June 2002

(From Mike Baldwin and Matt Wandishin, NOAA/NSSL)

Page 21: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

NEXRAD Composite

Reisner Scheme SB2004 Scheme

WSM-6 SchemeLin, et al. Scheme

4 km WRF-ARW12 h reflectivity forecast, Valid 10 June 2003 12 Z

Column Max Reflectivity (dBZ)

Does microphysics matter at all???

Axel Seifert (DWD), Friday morning

Page 22: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

4 km WRF 12 h Precipitation Forecast

NCEP Stage 4 Data

Reisner Scheme SB2004 Scheme

WSM-6 SchemeLin, et al. Scheme

Valid 10 June 2003 12 Z

Total Precipitation (mm)

(Axel Seifert, 2004)

Page 23: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Reisner

Lin WSM-6

SB2004

12 h Surface Theta

Cold Pools??

Page 24: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Are we properly representing the structure and evolution of the PBL??

Jack Kain (NSSL) PBL observations and forecasting issues: Friday afternoon

Bjorn Stevens (UCLA), PBL theory and parameterization: Monday Morning

Fei Chen (NCAR/RAL), Land surface modeling: Monday Afternoon

Page 25: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Sounding comparison: 24h forecast valid 00Z 18 May at DDC

ARW4

NMM4

Too dry in PBL, too moist above; Where is the PBL top?

Good forecast…

Model Raob

Model Raob

MYJ

YSU

(Jack Kain, NSSL)

Page 26: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Sounding comparison: 24h forecast valid 00Z 24 May at DDC

ARW4

NMM4

Good forecast…

PBL too shallow, cold, & moist…clouds just broke up!

Model Raob

Model Raob

MYJ

YSU

(Jack Kain, NSSL)

Page 27: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Black Contours: Surface Mixing Ratio Colors: Surface Volumetric Soil Moisture

(b) 4-km HRLDAS fields (a) 40-km EDAS soil fields

Similar large-scale heterogeneity in OK EDAS is wetter along the TX dryline

dry wet

Land Surface Sensitivities:(19 June 2002 IHOP, Stan Trier)

Page 28: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Trier, Chen and Manning, 2004.

Coarse resolution soil moisture High resolution soil moisture

3 hour precip.

Page 29: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Theoretical Predictability Limits??

Thunderstorms (~10 km): ~ 1h Convective Systems (300 km): ~12 h

Subsynoptic waves (~1200 km): ~1.5 days

Lorenz, 1969Atmos. Energy Spectrum

Predictability Limit for given scale

Scale (km)

Error spectrum at given time

Rich Rotunno (NCAR/MMM) Tuesday morning (wk 2)

Page 30: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

What can data assimilation offer us??

Chris Snyder, (NCAR/MMM) Fundamentals of data assimilation, Tuesday morning

David Dowell (NCAR/MMM-RAL) Ensemble Kalman Filters, Wednesday morning

Jenny Sun (NCAR/MMM-RAL) The VDRAS system, Thursday morning

Page 31: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Three hour forecast

(4DVar data assimilation system, Juanzhen Sun)

Observed reflectivity

(KVNX radar)

IHOP case, June 12, 2002

Page 32: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

EnKF assimilation of KOUN NEXRAD data (50 ensemble members)

Dowell et al. 2004

Page 33: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

What is the future for Mesoscale Observations?

Howard Bluestein (OU) Thursday morning (wk 2)

Page 34: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Sensitivity studies indicate that moisture is the key observable for improved short range forecasts of hazardous weather.

REFRACTIVITY GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER

WATER VAPOR DIAL LIDAR

Page 35: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

POLARIMETRIC RADAR OBSERVATIONS

Particle discrimination

Page 36: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

So, will we ever be able to predict this….

….hours,days in advance???

Lou Wicker (NSSL) Tuesday afternoon (wk 2)

Page 37: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Hurricane Frances Reflectivity near Landfall

Melbourne Radar

48 h forecast from 4 km WRF valid at 00Z Sept 5

Chris Davis (NCAR/MMM), Wednesday (wk 2)

Page 38: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Convective storms/systems

Morris Weisman (NCAR/MMM)

Page 39: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

X0600 UTC 10 June, 2003

11 June, 2003

0540 UTC 10 June, 2003

Upscale Growth of Convection

Chris Davis (NCAR/MMM) Bow echoes

MCV

MCSs

Page 40: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Synoptic and mesoscale influences……

Lance Bosart (SUNY), Howard Bluestein (OU), Stan Trier (NCAR/MMM), Steve Weiss (SPC)

Page 41: The Challenge of Convective Forecasting “Predictability does not necessarily imply ability to predict” ASP/MMM Colloquium July 10-21, 2006 Morris Weisman

Colloquium Goals:

•What are our current capabilities related to convective NWP in the 0-36 h range?

•What are our current limitations? (numerics, physics, observations, assimilation techniques,computer capacity…i.e.,where do we need research?)

What can we hope to achieve? e.g., predictability!!!


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